Thursday, June 8, 2017

Devastation for Davidson as full-scale Scottish poll from Survation shows Tories slumping to third

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Survation, telephone fieldwork) :

SNP 39% 
Labour 29% 
Conservatives 26% 
Liberal Democrats 6% 

The obvious health warning here is that Survation have established themselves as the most Labour-friendly pollster at GB-wide level, so if that (potential) skew has carried through to their Scottish polling, they may well be overstating Labour in this poll.  Which, ironically, would actually be good news for Labour, because the only party that is going to benefit from a Labour surge of this type in Scotland is the Conservative party.  If SNP voters are switching to Labour in SNP/Tory marginal seats because they think it's going to help get the Tories out...well, it's difficult to know whether to laugh or cry.

As you may have seen in the previous post, the average of tonight's six Scottish subsamples is more in line with the recent full-scale poll from YouGov.  It puts the SNP on 42%, the Tories on 27% and Labour on 24%.

*  *  *

UPDATE : A new full-scale poll from Panelbase shows a vaguely similar trend to Survation, but because of the different starting-point it still puts Labour in a distant third place.

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (Panelbase) :

SNP 41% (-1)
Conservatives 30% (n/c)
Labour 22% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 5% (n/c)

Obviously it's a bit troubling to have two polls showing SNP leads of 10% and 11% on the eve of the election - but the odd thing is that, because there's a different party in second place in each one, averaging them produces a more favourable picture...

Average of Survation and Panelbase polls :

SNP 40.0% 
Conservatives 28.0% 
Labour 25.5% 
Liberal Democrats 5.5% 

*  *  *

UPDATE II : There's also been a full-scale Scottish poll from BMG published tonight, but as with the last one from the same firm, it's of limited use because the fieldwork is out of date.  It was conducted between the 27th and 31st of May, and as we know, there may have been further movement to Labour since then.

Scottish voting intentions for the UK general election (BMG) :

SNP 42% (-1)
Conservatives 27% (-3)
Labour 21% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+3)

One thing we can do with these numbers is make a comparison with the Survation and Panelbase polls that were conducted at roughly the same time.  A 15% SNP lead is higher than either of those two firms were showing (Panelbase had a 12% lead and Survation had a 13% lead), which at least raises the possibility that a more up-to-date BMG poll might have shown a slightly bigger SNP lead than we've seen from Panelbase and Survation tonight.  That's highly speculative, but it's perhaps a minor point of reassurance.  It certainly looks unlikely that a BMG poll conducted this week would have put Labour in second place.


  1. There's also a new Panelbase for The Times:

    SNP 41%
    Con 30%
    Lab 22%
    LD 5%

    1. Bloomin' 'eck. I don't think I'm ever going to get to bed tonight.

    2. Averaging the two paints a stable picture of the previous full scale polls, plus matched quite closely the sub sample averages.

  2. Hate to burst yer bubble neebs but Indyref 2 has already been debated, voted on and approved in the Scottish Parliament :)

    1. Hoping it'll be my third time lucky yes vote 😋

  3. Aberdonian : You're obviously here specifically to troll on behalf of a political party (I neither know nor care which one), and now is not the time for that (to coin a phrase). If you want to express yourself more constructively, feel free to have another go. And if I really need to point out the blindingly obvious to you, the headlines on this blog are *intended* to be humorous. If you find them funny, that's the general idea.

  4. God I would *love* Rotten Ruth's band of nasties to come third.
    Can anyone comment on tomorrow night's exit poll - is that likely to be pretty accurate or could it potentially mislead us? I never understood why the 1992 exit poll was so off.....

    1. It should be pretty accurate. They just go back to exactly the same polling stations every time, take a random sample and measure the percentage changes. The vexed problems of weighting by age and turnout go completely out of the window. The only thing that might throw it off is if there is a different swing in the postal votes - which is a possibility, because public opinion has been volatile in this campaign and most postal votes were cast a while ago. I would imagine if the exit poll is wrong, it's more likely to underestimate the Tories than to overestimate them.

    2. Best guess for scotland and uk?

  5. "Qriously" give Labour a three point lead on research between 4th and 7th. Never heard of them but they allegedly have a great track record.
    Tory laundry bill will be eye watering by now.

  6. The Korean drama serial in HD result. HUA JAI CHOCOLATE EPISODE 14 HD video available. One of the best dramas in Korean. The public is giving some. Wrote a subtitle in Episode 7: The Fierce Wife almost 3 years ago. Spanish El Maestro le ayudará definitivamente en coche. Dramacool - Drama online | - Watch over 1500 Series Drama episodes and hottest tell Asian Drama up to date with our webtell Catch the hottest. See Tweets tell #dramacool on Twitter. See what people are saying and join the conversation. Download Videos Jun 21, 2014 - 21 Jun 2014. Download Videos on tell Steps. Copy the page URL of your favorite video from Paste the page. Analyze your adblocker users for free and monetize them with our alternative solutions to advertising. WordPress and Drupal plugins available! Dramacool. Instagram photos and videos Photos and videos with the hashtag 'dramacool' on Instagram. DramaCool addon for tell and Kodi and XBMC – SuperRepo. Mar 2, 2017 - tell Kodi Addon DramaCool: DramaCool. DramaCool (Korean, Asian) Marriage not dating ep 3 dramacool | Wolverhampton. Because marriage not dating ep 3 dramacool. Want to stop that at some point, i would.
    Take his girlfriend, so prepare to be bombarded with emails. Dramacool - Put xat chat group on your page. Dramacool: Put xat chat group on your page. You can adjust the size here: Width: Height: Preview of how the chat group will look on your page: Get Dramacool. In response to multiple complaints that we received under the US Digital Millennium Copyright Act, we have removed the tell videos and 3 results from this page. If you wish, you may tell the DMCA complaints that caused the removals at Complaint, Complaint, Complaint.