Saturday, June 3, 2017

Are you hiding behind the SOFA, Theresa? Now even Opinium say the Tory majority could be under threat...

Well, the first of tonight's many polls is about as reassuring as we could realistically have hoped for, with Opinium showing the Tory lead falling to its lowest level of the campaign, and with the SNP enjoying a reasonable lead in the Scottish subsample.  Bear in mind, though, that Opinium's numbers are always a little out of date by the time we see them - fieldwork was concluded on Wednesday.

GB-wide voting intentions (Opinium) :

Conservatives 43% (-2)
Labour 37% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
SNP 5% (n/c)
UKIP 5% (n/c)
Greens 2% (n/c)

Scottish subsample : SNP 47%, Conservatives 31%, Labour 19%, Liberal Democrats 2%, UKIP 1%.

Opinium have thus joined the ranks of pollsters saying that a hung parliament is at least a credible possibility. I suspect most projections from a 6% Tory lead would still produce some sort of Tory majority, but the truth is that nobody really know how the regional variations will play out.  Most commentators will probably refuse to take the hung parliament scenario seriously unless tonight's polls from the most Tory-friendly firms (ICM and ComRes) at least show the Tory lead dropping to single figures.  An 8% or 9% Tory lead would obviously be very unlikely to produce a hung parliament, but at that point you'd be able to make the case that ICM and ComRes would only need to be over-compensating for the 2015 error by a small amount for it to become possible that the Tories might lose their majority.

My reading of the hints Martin Boon has been dropping on Twitter is that tonight's ICM poll probably isn't going to produce that kind of result, but we'll see.

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UPDATE : The ComRes poll will probably dampen talk of a hung parliament, because it shows the Tory lead steady at 12%.  However, just to put in perspective how strong the ComRes turnout weighting is, the Tories are only 4% ahead before the adjustment is made.  The Scottish subsample is less favourable for the SNP than Opinium was, but crucially agrees with Opinium that there is no sign of a Labour surge : SNP 40%, Conservatives 32%, Labour 15%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Greens 2%, UKIP 1%.


  1. Thanks for the continuing updates - have been concerned that Corbyn might assist move towards labour at SNP expense and for the benefit of nobody but May and Davidson. The quicker this Survation poll is out the better.

    1. Was survation not always Labour friendly?

  2. How the f can these tory and labor numbers match up? For the tories to be up in scotland and labor down but the Opposite in england? But in those polls, the #'s dont pass the smell test. Their would have to be tons of marginal tory seats in danger! Does NO ONE overpoll to Check these things? Just pick 4 bell weather seats and call another 300 people to confirm.

  3. The Scottish subsample is certainly an outlier. Not a credible reflection of reality.

  4. comres = comedy results

  5. Wow survation is extraordinary. The gap between Comres and survation is ridiculous! Haven't seen data for Scottish breakdown yet though