Sunday, February 26, 2017

Memo to Corbyn : the most recent polls show an INCREASE in support for independence

Jeremy Corbyn said a number of puzzling things in his dire speech to the Scottish Labour conference today (he surprised even himself by saying "well done to our SNPs!"), but none more so than this...

"Regular polling since Brexit has shown a drop in support for independence."

This begs the obvious question - what regular polling?  No firm has really carried out regular polling on independence since the referendum in September 2014.  The only possible exception is BMG, who recently seem to have started conducting polls on independence for the Herald at vaguely regular intervals.  So far, though, they've only done two polls that used the same question, and that are therefore directly comparable.  For what it's worth, the most recent poll in the series showed a 3.5% increase in support for independence.  That may well have been an illusion caused by sampling variation, but the only other poll we've had since then (from Panelbase) showed a very slight and statistically insignificant increase in support for Yes, rather than a decrease.

There is thus no planet on which it is possible to accurately claim that "regular polling" has shown a drop in support for independence.  You could say that it's shown an increase in support, or that there hasn't been enough regular polling to draw any firm conclusions.  There's no third option here.

Elsewhere, Adam Bienkov of Business Insider randomly trotted out the hoary old claim that the SNP are "the governing party in a near one-party state".  The word "near" covers a multitude of sins, because -

a)  Scotland is not a state.

b)  Five parties are represented in the Scottish Parliament.

c)  None of those parties has even a slight majority of the seats in parliament (unlike the governing party at Westminster, for example).

When these facts were pointed out to Adam, he hurriedly shifted the goalposts and insisted he had instead been referring to the SNP's total dominance of Scottish representation in the House of Commons.  But that makes even less sense.  The SNP are indeed a "governing party" of Scotland - albeit only a semi-autonomous government that is not permitted to hold the most important levers of power.  None of the powers they do hold are derived in any way from their relative strength at Westminster, where they have just 8% of MPs and are routinely outvoted by the party which possesses an absolute majority of seats (the Conservatives).

If this is a "near one-party state" that Adam is describing, he seems to have identified the wrong party and the wrong state. 

*  *  *

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  1. Theresa Trumpette and her revolting kipper toriesFebruary 26, 2017 at 9:39 PM

    Jamie Maxwell‏@jamiemaxwell86 5 hours ago

    I know, jocksplaining and all the rest of it. But honestly, they do not have a fucking clue.

    EXCLUSIVE: Theresa May urges Scots to use local elections to reject independence - EXCLUSIVE: Theresa May urges Scots to use local elections to reject independence

    - …

  2. Dugdale's Suicide Squad and her irrelevant westminster bossFebruary 26, 2017 at 9:43 PM

    Paul Kavanagh‏@weegingerdug 4 hours ago

    @WingsScotland I've had more people coming to an event to meet my dug than went to listen to Jeremy Corbyn this weekend.

    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 26, 2017 at 11:02 PM

      Mad Mental Jock Nazis still shiting themselves tae go fur a referendum. Better fleecing the English taxpayer lining our pockets and conning the plebs.

    2. Revolution

      Anarchists understand that this truly free and equal society can only be achieved through revolution – meaning a complete transformation of society. This society cannot be ‘given’ to the people by politicians or bureaucrats. It must be built by people from below.

    3. Glasgow Working Class 2February 26, 2017 at 11:48 PM

      Mad Mental Jock Nazis just dont get it, check out Scotland In Yoonians master economist and dog food salesman K***n H***e for some insightful graphs to explain everything. If that doesn't get it through your thicko jocko skulls Lord Darling can help explain how to go from abject poverty and a socialist to being a lord of the realm and a jolly nice chap whato.

    4. Glasgow Working Class 2February 26, 2017 at 11:59 PM

      Looking for a strapping Jocko fash nat si to tongue my dung clunge. This will keep me going whilst I bash my teeny pine needle against my iPad and dweam and dweam of upcoming Kipper-SLAB Alliance Front in May to keep racialist free prescription good govt party out of power in my beloved Glasgow Municipality.

    5. Pick me pick me

  3. Compared with other Pollsters,BMG Polling has consistently(wrongly) under represented the pro Union Vote.

    1. Glasgow Working ClassFebruary 26, 2017 at 10:46 PM

      The Polling Industry didn't do well in the 2015 General Election and are at best a guide, not an exact science. I wouldn't read one poll as something to back up your side. Let us see what all trends the polls are saying when they are published. So much shifting sands at the moment.

    2. No idea what you mean, Anon. Apart possibly from the most recent poll, BMG's results haven't been noticeably different from other firms.

  4. I used to be behind Corby 100%. He's a straight up fella with his heart in the right place. A true socialist. But he's not a leader of men, unfortunately. He's got the formidability of a choc-ice. If you could take his values and transplant them into the brain of a bastard, that would be someone I could vote for. But this isn't sci-fi and you can't change a man's character just because he's ineffective... and then he comes to Scotland and starts farting out the same old guff that comes out of Kezia's cakehole. It's absolutely soul destroying. Talk shite - Shed votes - Talk shite - Shed votes - Talk shite - Shed votes. Sigh. In the end, I was wrong. He's not the mean-assed saviour of British politics I had once envisioned, he's just a jittery old man who's caught a dose of the dugdales. Sigh. I need a beer. A really big bastard of a beer. Sigh. And a choc-ice.

  5. Britnats will be forced to regurgitate the lies of Project Fear - it's all they have.

  6. Corbyn is like most decent English people.
    He has not got a clue that Scotland is an actual country, nor not got a clue that we are the result of 300 years of oppression.
    And more importantly, only supports democracy for decent English people, not the barbarous Scots who must be crushed.

  7. Hope you've alerted JC to this on Twitter!

  8. Glasgow Working Class 2February 27, 2017 at 8:01 PM

    Corbyn is just taking in the dosh until he retires with a pension increase the working class could not dream of. The Nat si Mps if Scotlsnd gets independence will walk away with a pension....Tax for wind and the working classes are paying it.

    1. Change by Direct Action

      Anarchism opposes the violence which is an integral part of capitalism and the state (this violence comes in many forms: war, patriarchy etc.). We believe that means shape ends – in other words, the way we struggle will shape the outcome of the struggle. This is also why we do not support the seizure of State power by authoritarian political parties. However, anarchists do believe in direct action – action taken by everyday people to address the power imbalance in present day society. This includes strikes, boycott’s, work-to-rule’s and occupations.

    2. Glasgow Working Class 3February 27, 2017 at 9:00 PM

      Work tae rule is something the employer would welcome and occupations pass the time before closure, historically speaking.

    3. Glasgow Working Class 3February 27, 2017 at 9:21 PM

      British Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn has reiterated his support for a united Ireland.
      Asked whether he supported unification during an interview with the New Statesman current magazine, Mr Corbyn answered, “it’s an aspiration that I have always gone along with”.
      Mr Corbyn has long been in favour of a united Ireland. In 1984 he invited Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams to a meeting in London and cancelled a second meeting in 1996 after coming under pressure from Labour party colleagues.
      In 1985 he opposed the Anglo Irish Agreement, saying “the agreement strengthens rather than weakens the border between the six and the 26 counties, and those of us who wish to see a united Ireland oppose the agreement for that reason”.
      The new Labour leader appointed John McDonnell, who said in 2003 that IRA members should be honoured for bringing the British government to the negotiating table, as shadow chancellor.

      SNP jockos are anti english racists

    4. Glasgow Working Class 2 fur real.February 27, 2017 at 10:30 PM

      Wee Jock McFudd should concentrate on its cause and do not be distracted by the likes of murderous criminal scum and their apologists.
      Wee McFudd should concentrate on policy unlike the previous McFudds who thought the Scots were thick and thought La La Land was a winner.

    5. (Points and laughs at Cheltenham's pet plastic prole)

  9. God help Scotland and us all if the Comments above represent the best true Scots can offer!

    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 27, 2017 at 11:04 PM

      Divine intervention from the god bloke is required. The Jock McFudds definitely need help.

    2. Glasgow Working Class 2February 28, 2017 at 12:01 AM

      God sent us Teresa May to lead us from the land of the heretics into the new jerusalem

      God is an Englishman and all is Right in the world

    3. Glasgow Pubs Closed EarlyFebruary 28, 2017 at 12:26 AM

      I personally speak for god when she says the Jock Nazi mob are shittin themselves tae go fur a referendum. God asked me tae pass this message tae you Nat si shitebags and she says (because god is a Scottish wummin) get some bottle Jocks (Jokes). Innatt.

    4. State of this.

  10. Glasgow Pubs Closed EarlyFebruary 28, 2017 at 1:54 AM

    The subtle campaign by the ritualists finally succeeded, for in 1913 the Grand Orange
    Lodge of England accepted the Royal Arch Purple degree as an integral part of its Institution.
    This was achieved by adding the Royal Arch Purple degree to the two existing degrees,
    thus making it the third degree.
    Loyal Orange Institution of England. (3 degrees)
    1st degree: Orange degree
    2nd degree: Plain Purple degree
    3rd degree: Royal Arch Purple degree
    Not surprisingly, since the acceptance of this superstitious degree, the Orange Order in
    England has been in slow terminal decline! The institution has gone from a powerful
    religious institution of tens of thousands of members to a small uneffective body of between
    two and three thousand members today

    1. Glasgow Working Class 2February 28, 2017 at 10:45 AM

      Hey Anon, the three degrees were a good group in the old days.