Friday, December 5, 2014

SNP and Plaid Cymru soar to Britain-wide vote of 6% in mesmerising YouGov poll

Apologies to Labour spin doctor John "I'm a gardener" McTernan, but your latest bright idea of using a column in an ex-fascist newspaper to brand the SNP as fascists doesn't appear to have worked terribly well.  Who'd ever have thunk it?

For the second day in a row, YouGov are putting the SNP and Plaid Cymru just 1% behind the Liberal Democrats across Britain - but this time with an almost unbelievably high 6% share of the vote.  You might remember there was a recent Ipsos-Mori poll in which the SNP had a Britain-wide vote of 8%, but it's much harder for the party to achieve abnormally high showings in YouGov polls, because YouGov don't take any account of differential turnout - ie. the number of Scottish-based respondents is fixed at the correct population share in the headline voting intention numbers.  So today's poll is the real deal - to get to this result, the SNP have had to reach 50% in the Scottish subsample, while also picking up some residual support in London and the rest of the south (possibly from people who expect to be casting their vote in Scotland next year).

Britain-wide voting intentions (YouGov) :

Labour 32% (+1)
Conservatives 31% (-1)
UKIP 15% (-2)
Greens 8% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
SNP/Plaid Cymru 6% (+1)
BNP 1% (+1)

Two other extraordinary things remain true for a second day in a row - the Liberal Democrats are languishing in a humiliating fifth place, and the combined share of the vote for the two so-called "major parties" is a dismally low 63%.

The enormous divergence between Scotland and the rest of the UK is illustrated in supplementary questions that ask about underlying attitudes towards the parties.  For example, 44% of respondents in Scotland say they would not apply the statement "The kind of society it wants is broadly the kind of society I want" to the Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal Democrats, whereas the equivalent figure in the other regions of Britain ranges from 22% to 26%.

61% of respondents in Scotland say that none of the three above-mentioned parties are "led by people of real ability", whereas there is no other region in which more than 47% say the same.


  1. Hmm, there does seem to be some evidence mounting that the Smith Commission outcome has boosted the SNP. Labour and Lib 2010 to SNP looks to have jumped up a bit and that's another 70%+ dissatisfied with the UK government this morning in yougov; 4 in a row now. 5 if you count the 68% before that.

    1. Suggestion of a slight SNP advance post-Smith seems to be confirmed by Populus. SNP 41, Lab 27, Con 19. That's the best SNP score (and worst Lab score) with them for weeks.

    2. Looking at the Populus figures, Scotland has 67% of the sample saying they will definitely vote (on a scale of 1-10 it's 67% at 10) with 89% very likely to vote (7 and above).

      No other region comes close with the SE at 55%/78% and the Midlands at 54%/78%.

      Scotland's newly found political engagement seems likely to continue post-IndyRef.

  2. There seems to be some concern that the BBC MSM onslaught (coming soon!) may help to recover Labour's position in Scotland in time before the GE next May. I would question how effective this could be, given that they tried very hard to boost Labour in 2011 (and we know what happened then). The Scottish people may change their minds again, at the last minute, to give Labour one more chance to kick the tories out in 2015, but then again, maybe they won't! It all depends on the appetite of the Scottish people for real change. If they really want devomax (and are prepared to create constitutional mayhem to get it), then there is nothing the BBC MSM Labour can do to prevent it. The people know what they have to do - it's still in their power. If current trends continue into January, Labour will start to become really concerned (squeaky bum time).

    1. I just can't see for the life of me, the SNP slipping to only get 6 MP's in the upcoming election.
      The fact that the Labour leaderhip ratings are at extremely low levels, coupled with Cameron and Cleggs ratings means that an exclusion from the debates might not be such a drain as is being made out.

      We're talking losing 20% here? By not being in debates, YET all the talk in the run up to the election will be of the SNP holding the balance of the SNP will generate attention for itself up here in my opinion.

    2. I think the SNP will pick up a few seats, but remember the size of the Red Tory majorities - huge! A wee change of heart won't do it, only a complete change of thinking in Scotland is required, which may occur, or may not occur, or may have occurred already. The Scottish people will decide in 2015. We will find out soon enough.

  3. I wonder. I wonder if the electorate have a plan after all. We have all seen polls where the most popular option is proper devo max (all tax and welfare devolved, only foreign affairs and defence reserved). With independence narrowly averted, the desire for devo max won't have died. Who is most likely to deliver devo max in a hung parliament?

    If the SNP go into 2015 on a devo max platform, maybe they really could sweep the board.

  4. Fascinating YouGov poll of 18-24 year olds out today.

    Britain: (Sample 2112)
    Lab: 34%, Con: 24%, Green: 19%, UKIP: 11%, Lib Dem: 6% SNP/Plaid: 6%

    Scottish Sub-Sample: (Sample 175)
    SNP: 48%, Green: 15%, Lab: 14%, Con: 13%, UKIP: 5% Lib Dem: 4%

    The future is looking bright.

    1. The Scottish sub-sample for that poll is actually 285, just down-weighted to 175.

    2. Oh thank you. The poll is also aggregated from a month of YouGov daily ones.

  5. In another place you were dealing with the odious Councillor for Largs otherwise known as Braveheart.

    Why don't you address him by his title just so that any passing civilians are informed just what a bunch of racists, neo-fascists and quisling lickspittles the modern labour in North Britain party have become.

    1. If he ever came here again (he used to be an occasional commenter a few years ago) I would certainly call him by his real name, but it would be a bit ill-mannered to do that on someone else's blog.

    2. I've just realised that was a slightly ambiguous comment - I meant that it would be ill-mannered for ME to do it on someone else's blog. But by all means feel free to mention it here - yes folks, "Braveheart" is Alex Gallagher, Labour councillor for North Coast and Cumbraes...