I must admit I've been caught out over the last couple of days misinterpreting the words of John Curtice and Kenny Farquharson, and spotting dark hints of a Labour surge in the polls that weren't actually there (touch wood). I'll have to learn to stop being quite so jumpy - it must be the scars of Glenrothes! This election remains extremely tight with almost three weeks still to go, though. Here are the full figures from tonight's long-awaited YouGov poll -
Constituency vote :
SNP 40% (-)
Labour 37% (-2)
Conservatives 11% (-)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+3)
Regional list vote :
SNP 35% (+3)
Labour 33% (-6)
Conservatives 12% (-)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+2)
Greens 6% (-)
On the seat projections, another minority SNP government would probably be the most likely outcome, although a three-way SNP-Lib Dem-Green coalition would have an overall majority of three seats. And the hypothetical parliamentary majority against an independence referendum would be just 69-60 on these figures, down from 79-50 at present.
Apparently before the campaign started, Labour strategists believed that the leaders' debates would work in their favour - they felt that Gray's poor leadership ratings were partly down to him being little-known, and that being seen on an equal footing with Salmond in the debates would help turn things round. Well, so far that theory doesn't seem to be working out too well - Salmond's personal lead over Gray has actually increased, from 15 points to 25 points. However, that can probably be explained as much by the notorious "hiding from protestors in a sandwich shop" incident as by the debates themselves.
One detail of the Scotland on Sunday report amused me -
"Furthermore, on YouGov's raw figures, unadjusted for likelihood to vote, the two parties remain neck and neck"
Now, weren't we all mocked a few weeks ago when we prayed in aid the unweighted data on the dodgy YouGov poll that showed Labour miles ahead?