Saturday, April 16, 2011

Angus Reid : SNP on 36% for Westminster voting intention

We continue to await tonight's YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday, which will be the first Holyrood poll in a couple of weeks - an almost obscene amount of time in the middle of a campaign. Kenny Farquharson, deputy editor of SoS and one of the paper's resident Nat-bashers, seems to be itching to gloat about the results, but the rest of us will just have to wait a few hours to see if the numbers justify that. In the meantime, I've finally managed to track down the Scottish subsample from last week's Angus Reid poll of GB-wide Westminster voting intentions (I was caught out because it was published on a different website this time), and the figures are actually extremely positive for the SNP...

Labour 40% (-3)
SNP 36% (-2)
Conservatives 14% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-)
Others 5% (+1)

As I always point out, Angus Reid subsamples are of more interest than those from other pollsters, because they tend to be more stable over time, suggesting they have been properly weighted. If the SNP are indeed only four points behind for Westminster, it seems reasonable to assume they'd be ahead in the Holyrood race, but are Angus Reid getting it right? You pays your money, and all that. Incidentally, this poll is a little out of date, but not much - the fieldwork dates were 8-11 April.

Meanwhile, if you want to have a go at reading the runes about the YouGov poll, here is a brief exchange I and a few others had with Kenny Farquharson on Twitter this afternoon -

Kenny Farquharson : My my, what a fascinating YouGov poll we have for you tomorrow.

Lydia Reid : Who will believe it if it is YouGov????

Kenny Farquharson : SNP had no problem believing the last one from a few weeks ago, Lydia, that had them ahead in the constituency vote.

Me : What a telling response, Kenny, taking it as read that Lydia knew what "fascinating" was code for. Well, didn't we all?

Kenny Farquharson : Meaning?

Me : Meaning, why assume that Lydia was rubbishing a bad poll for her party when she has no idea of the results yet?

Paul Togneri : I think the problems with YouGov had been to do with weighting. I believe they've been fixed but I'm no expert.

Roger Mullin : We shall see I know they got Party name wrong calling it Scottish Nationalist Party in this survey.

Kenny Farquharson : Bollocks, Roger, I have the exact wording in front of me.

So make of that what you will.


  1. from Angus MacLeod on Twitter

    .@severincarrell SoS poll good for Nats, I hear.

  2. Ezio Auditore da Firenze - Alex Salmond for First MinisterApril 16, 2011 at 8:53 PM

    What time can we expect to hear the results? Any idea?

  3. Marcia. Found this on Political

    from The Times

    .@severincarrell SoS poll good for Nats, I hear.

    Must be good news for the SNP as Nicola Sturgeon has re-tweeted that; so she know the results. Can’t stay up ’till midnight as too tired.

  4. Ezio Auditore da Firenze - Alex Salmond for First MinisterApril 16, 2011 at 9:54 PM

    Excellent news.

    People, both in campaign HQ and on the ground, need to keep the heid though. Labour's numbers fell dramatically in a short space of time, the same could happen to SNP.

    But the people of Florence will be celebrating tonight!

  5. Forfar-Loon, I am unable to load the story on that page, but the comments look favourable.

  6. Tris

    I think the paper might have taken the article down until midnight but I did get a glimpse of it. The SNP are ahead of Labour on both counts.

    It is a good poll.

  7. Sounds like Kenny F was just being a lad, then!

  8. Constituency SNP 40 : Lab 37 : Con 11 : LD 8

    List SNP 35 : Lab 33 : Con 12 : LD 7 : Grn 6

    Projection by Curtice

    SNP 55 : Lab 49 : Con 14 : LD 6 : Green 5

    “Salmond’s appeal among voters is also strengthening, according to the poll, with the number of people who would choose him as First Minister over Gray increasing from 48 per cent to 52 per cent over the last fortnight. The number who back Gray has fallen from 33 per cent to 27 per cent.”

  9. New Scotland On Sunday Poll

    Constituency SNP 40 : Lab 37 : Con 11 : LD 8

    List SNP 35 : Lab 33 : Con 12 : LD 7 : Grn 6

  10. this time four years ago the SNP had a 7% lead on yougov

  11. I've rarely been so delighted to be proved completely wrong!

    Anon : "this time four years ago the SNP had a 7% lead on yougov"

    This time four years ago the SNP didn't have the advantage of incumbency - the main reason their lead slipped in the closing days was the public's fear of the unknown. But as you can see above, there's no trace of complacency from SNP supporters - everyone knows this is a very tight election that could still go either way. So let's not hear anymore nonsense from John Park about "the SNP wanting to declare victory before a vote has been cast".