We continue to await tonight's YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday, which will be the first Holyrood poll in a couple of weeks - an almost obscene amount of time in the middle of a campaign. Kenny Farquharson, deputy editor of SoS and one of the paper's resident Nat-bashers, seems to be itching to gloat about the results, but the rest of us will just have to wait a few hours to see if the numbers justify that. In the meantime, I've finally managed to track down the Scottish subsample from last week's Angus Reid poll of GB-wide Westminster voting intentions (I was caught out because it was published on a different website this time), and the figures are actually extremely positive for the SNP...
Labour 40% (-3)
SNP 36% (-2)
Conservatives 14% (+4)
Liberal Democrats 5% (-)
Others 5% (+1)
As I always point out, Angus Reid subsamples are of more interest than those from other pollsters, because they tend to be more stable over time, suggesting they have been properly weighted. If the SNP are indeed only four points behind for Westminster, it seems reasonable to assume they'd be ahead in the Holyrood race, but are Angus Reid getting it right? You pays your money, and all that. Incidentally, this poll is a little out of date, but not much - the fieldwork dates were 8-11 April.
Meanwhile, if you want to have a go at reading the runes about the YouGov poll, here is a brief exchange I and a few others had with Kenny Farquharson on Twitter this afternoon -
Kenny Farquharson : My my, what a fascinating YouGov poll we have for you tomorrow.
Lydia Reid : Who will believe it if it is YouGov????
Kenny Farquharson : SNP had no problem believing the last one from a few weeks ago, Lydia, that had them ahead in the constituency vote.
Me : What a telling response, Kenny, taking it as read that Lydia knew what "fascinating" was code for. Well, didn't we all?
Kenny Farquharson : Meaning?
Me : Meaning, why assume that Lydia was rubbishing a bad poll for her party when she has no idea of the results yet?
Paul Togneri : I think the problems with YouGov had been to do with weighting. I believe they've been fixed but I'm no expert.
Roger Mullin : We shall see I know they got Party name wrong calling it Scottish Nationalist Party in this survey.
Kenny Farquharson : Bollocks, Roger, I have the exact wording in front of me.
So make of that what you will.