The latest poll for the upcoming Scottish Parliament election shows a picture somewhere in between the two extremes of Ipsos-Mori on the one hand, and YouGov and TNS-BMRB on the other. Labour have a lead, but of a more middling variety, while the SNP vote is actually well up on 2007. There is also no sign whatever of the modest advance for the Greens suggested by the last couple of polls. Here are the full figures -
Constituency vote :
Liberal Democrats 5%
Regional list vote :
Liberal Democrats 4%
Once again, I'd suggest it's worth looking at the combined vote for the SNP and the Tories. For the avoidance of doubt (I'm looking at you, Mr. Labour wind-up merchant "Braveheart"), that is not because a coalition between the two parties is remotely likely or desirable, but because both parties will probably be vigorously opposed to any Labour-led administration for their own separate reasons. In this instance, the combined figure stands at a whopping 48% on both ballots - exactly the same as for Labour + Lib Dem.
However, the huge health warning here is that Progressive Scottish Opinion's track record is...well, rubbish. Their weekly polls in the 2007 race were as mad as a bucket of frogs, and the fact that they're quoting constituency vote figures in this poll for the Greens who (as far as I'm aware) are only standing on the list doesn't exactly inspire huge confidence.