Sunday, March 13, 2011

Progressive Scottish Opinion : SNP support up on 2007 winning share

The latest poll for the upcoming Scottish Parliament election shows a picture somewhere in between the two extremes of Ipsos-Mori on the one hand, and YouGov and TNS-BMRB on the other. Labour have a lead, but of a more middling variety, while the SNP vote is actually well up on 2007. There is also no sign whatever of the modest advance for the Greens suggested by the last couple of polls. Here are the full figures -

Constituency vote :

Labour 43%
SNP 37%
Conservatives 11%
Liberal Democrats 5%
SSP 2%
Greens 1%

Regional list vote :

Labour 44%
SNP 37%
Conservatives 11%
Liberal Democrats 4%
Greens 2%
SSP 1%

Once again, I'd suggest it's worth looking at the combined vote for the SNP and the Tories. For the avoidance of doubt (I'm looking at you, Mr. Labour wind-up merchant "Braveheart"), that is not because a coalition between the two parties is remotely likely or desirable, but because both parties will probably be vigorously opposed to any Labour-led administration for their own separate reasons. In this instance, the combined figure stands at a whopping 48% on both ballots - exactly the same as for Labour + Lib Dem.

However, the huge health warning here is that Progressive Scottish Opinion's track record is...well, rubbish. Their weekly polls in the 2007 race were as mad as a bucket of frogs, and the fact that they're quoting constituency vote figures in this poll for the Greens who (as far as I'm aware) are only standing on the list doesn't exactly inspire huge confidence.


  1. I'm not big on opinion polls but what is evident is the collapse of the Lib vote in Scotland.

    Personally I think it is far too close to call and I think the SNP may scrape the election when the campaign proper takes hold.

    Being a Tory the best I can hope for my party is to hold onto what we have and I would welcome ourselves and the Nats to scupper any plans Labour have in forming an administration.

    Councillor Alex Gallagher #Labour# and his Braveheart blog may have a different take on this of course.

    Regards: Tom Marshall.

  2. Alex Gallagher is a guy who sits and writes a blog under the name 'Braveheart' having repeatedly pretended he didn't!

  3. James

    I am inclined to think that the Ipsos-Mori poll is the most accurate, and mirrors the results that all the partys are getting in their own private polling.

    There can be no other reason for Ed Balls hot footing it to Holyrood to tell Iain Gray to change his stance on council tax quickly. The same goes for the TV debates. Gray would never appear on TV with Salmond if he was in front, not in a million years.

    If Labour were so far in front as some polls suggest they would be sticking to their policies of increasing council tax, reintroduce the prescription tax, or an immoral tax on the sick, as Gordon Brown called it when in opposition then increased it every year when in government.

    If you add in the effect of the most effective PPB for years all the more reason for Labour jitters.

  4. If Labour were/are in the lead then why all these policy U-turns? It is coming across as saying anything to get elected as that does not go down well with voters and they may do the opposite if elected. Their private polling usually dictates their campaign strategy so perhaps hence the panic.

  5. Yes, whether it's private polling or some other factor, Labour have clearly calculated that this is an election they could easily still lose. The U-turn on council tax was fairly jaw-dropping.

  6. James

    The U-Turn on council tax was imposed on them by London Labour, there is no other logical explanation.

    Scotland is supposed to be their stepping stone back to power at Westminster, so Labours North British branch will have to do what it is told to do by Ed and Ed, even if it is Balls, and it makes Gray look even stupider than normal.

    No ambition or vision for Scotland, just do what your told and we will give you a seat in the Lords.

  7. This poll is very interesting on a few fronts. One it has the Libs imploding, 2nd it shows most of that vote going to Labour and 3rd, the SNP is well up on its 2007 result.

    Now although it looks very good for Labour having all the extra Lib votes, it's also incredible that the SNP has not only held onto its vote but increased it. The extra votes Labour have for now are soft and many Libs will return to their party come the election where as the SNP on 37% is more credible and solid.

    Even the polls which had Labour 11% ahead of the SNP, the SNP still polled around the 2007 result so what I'm saying is that the SNP has a solid base to start off from (33%) going into this election and that figure is sure to increase. We saw the Libs were polling very well in the UK election right up until election night, then the exit poll came out a lot of the support they thought (or the polls had suggested) slipped back to Labour and this showed in the actual result. The same will almost inevitably happen in Scotland and watch the Libs going back to the Libs. A higher Lib vote = less Labour = victory for the SNP.