Friday, November 26, 2010

Mixed news for SNP with Ipsos-Mori

The latest full-scale Scottish poll conducted by Ipsos-Mori contains sobering news for the SNP on the constituency vote, with Labour's lead increasing from three to ten points.  But that story is almost completely reversed on the list vote, with Labour's lead slipping from nine points to four.  Here are the full figures -

Constituency vote

Labour 41% (+4)
SNP 31% (-3)
Conservatives 13% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-2)
Others 5% (+1)

List vote

Labour 36% (-2)
SNP 32% (+3)
Conservatives 12% (-)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-3)
Others 10% (+1)

Despite the conflicting signals here, and in spite of the fact that the list vote is (in theory at least) the more important of the two, I'd have to say this looks more like bad news than good for the SNP.  The constituency vote is requested first and that will usually give the most accurate indication of the electorate's attitude towards the parties.  However, there's the customary better news on the leaders' ratings, with Alex Salmond comfortably outstripping Iain Gray in the popularity stakes, and with Tavish Scott very tellingly being the only one of the four leaders to suffer a negative rating.  That at least offers some grounds for optimism that the SNP's fortunes may improve once the campaign proper gets underway and the leaders are pushed to the forefront.


  1. Interesting concept that Labour may be benficiaries of Liberal vote collapse - people need to understand the realities of voting Labour. The 'Labour as shield'myth / meme is still really strong - even if it's a fiction

  2. It is not that bad at all. A 50% increase on the General Election vote for the SNP. Has certainty to vote being taken into account as Labour tend to suffer in Scottish Elections on polling day and the SNP poll better in Scottish Elections on election day?

    Despite the wall to wall media bias recently nearly one third of the population still voting for the minority government party. The Labour vote peaked at the the General Election. Your comment about TS getting a negative rating. Could it be now that if you mention LD that in its self gets a negative answer. Not a good sign for them if that is the case. From speaking to some activist, they sense that joining with the Tories has indeed hurt the LD vote and they are not so sure that it is Labour that will benefit as Bella commented above. One curious thing is that the shy Tories have come out the closet and instead of saying 'other' now happy to say Tory again but are still low in number.

  3. To answer your question, Marcia, the headline figures are based only on those certain to vote. Without that filter Labour have a larger lead on the list, but there's no difference on the constituency vote.

  4. I have now seen the data files - it does look as though the LD are getting a negative rating due to their Westminster coalition. Still 6 months to go and things can change when the spotlight does shine on the opposition policies or rather the lack of them.

  5. The intriguing thing about this poll is that there is virtually no difference between the Westminster and Holyrood constituency numbers.

    That indicates to me that the electorate have still not 'decoupled' the 2011 election from this year's Westminster election in their minds.

    It is not a given that this will actually happen, of course, but if it does expect the gap to narrow and turn around.

    Labour won in 1997 without any policies BUT they had a leader that resonated with the electorate. Can they really win an election in 2011 without any policies and without a leader that has any popular resonance?