Sunday, April 5, 2009

YouGov : Labour lead in Scotland slashed

I'd started to lose faith that such a thing could exist, but at last here is a YouGov poll with some moderately good news for the SNP! Labour remain ahead in the Scottish sub-sample, but their lead has been halved from twelve to six points.

Labour 36% (-)
SNP 30% (+6)
Conservatives 19% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-5)
Others 4% (-2)

Meanwhile, the debate on the UK-wide figures is whether Labour should be enthused or in a state of despair at their modest bounce following Gordon Brown's G20 'triumph'. Mike Smithson at falls into the latter category, but Frank Luntz - who to be fair was spot on in his prediction of a boost of 3-4 points - seemed to feel on Friday that such an outcome would be sufficient to bring a snap election onto the horizon! I remain dubious, but it is true that a Tory lead of just seven points is not sufficient for David Cameron to be fully confident of securing an overall majority.


  1. It is a small sample but heartening all the same

  2. Any news that will take the wind out of labours sails is welcomed. The Libs are being decimated on every poll, big or small...