There doesn't seem to have been a full-scale Scottish poll on independence for over a month - OK, it's summer, but I wouldn't be surprised if such polls continue to be thin on the ground for the rest of 2021, unless the SNP start injecting some urgency. However what we do have, weirdly, is a Britain-wide poll on the subject - the rough equivalent of a Europe-wide poll on whether Brexit is a good idea and whether it should have been 'allowed' to happen.
Redfield & Wilton Strategies found 29% of the GB public in favour of independence, and 33% opposed to it - roughly a 47-53 split with neutrals stripped out. Far more interesting is of course the Scottish subsample, which shows 40% in favour and 41% opposed - essentially a dead heat, which is better than the last couple of full-scale Scottish polls, although the small size of a subsample means the findings are much less reliable.
One unusual feature of the poll is that there are figures for people who identify as Scottish, irrespective of where in Britain they live. These should provide a warning for Tories and unionist commentators hankering after a blood-and-soil franchise for the next indyref, because Scottish identifiers are much more strongly supportive of independence and an early independence referendum than other groups. 53% want a referendum in the next year and 35% don't. However, even among the actual indyref franchise (people who live in Scotland regardless of their national identity), there is a plurality in favour of a referendum in the next year, working out at roughly 52% in favour when neutrals are removed. That rather helpfully gives the lie to Councillor Hunter's provocative comments of the other day.
Incidentally, the supposedly poor personal ratings for Nicola Sturgeon commented upon recently appear to come from another GB-wide Redfield & Wilton poll, so can essentially be disregarded.
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Scot Goes Pop poll fundraising update: We're kind of in no-man's-land at present - a substantial amount of money has been raised, but we're still quite a way short of where we'll need to be to make a full-scale poll happen. I know some will say I shouldn't have used the Scot Goes Pop general fundraiser to seek the funds, because that makes it harder for people to keep track of how much has specifically been raised for the poll, but there would also have been substantial downsides to running two different fundraisers simultaneously. Rest assured I'm not going to leave the job half-done, the poll will definitely happen sooner or later, it's just a question of when. If you haven't donated yet and would like to speed things up, please click HERE. To give you a rough idea, the £5500 required for the type of poll we've run in the past will have been raised when the running total on the general fundraiser is a little above £13,000. For a cheaper option (which may be more realistic at this stage), the running total will have to be slightly in excess of £11,000 at an absolute minimum.