Saturday, January 2, 2021

Poll crowdfunder update II

The Scot Goes Pop poll fundraiser is moving tantalisingly close to reaching its target figure of £7500 - as of 7.30 this morning, £6290 has been raised.  Thank you to everyone who has donated so far, or shared the link on social media.

Thanks also for the suggestions for poll questions.  I think it might be helpful, though, if I'm more specific about the types of questions I'm looking for.  As this will be an immediate post-Brexit poll, I think it makes sense for most (not all, but most) of the questions to be directly related to Brexit - for example, the rights that people have lost now that they are no longer European citizens.  Do they want those rights back?  Or do they feel, as Labour and (extraordinarily) the Liberal Democrats apparently do, that we should now accept Brexit and move on?

I've also got one left-field, non-Brexit question that I hope to ask if there's enough room.  In addition, I know there's always demand for a "Plan B" question, and I'm not totally opposed to that idea, but only if there's a way of asking it that adds some value.  Remember that all three polls I've run so far have had a Plan B question - the first asked about legislating for an independence referendum without a Section 30 order and allowing the courts to decide whether it can go ahead, the second asked about using a scheduled election to double as an indyref, and the third asked about the general principle of whether there should be some sort of Plan B if London keeps saying no.  All three questions produced positive results, so there's no point in duplicating them.  Is there a possible question that is sufficiently different to be worth asking?  Some of you want a question specifically about whether this year's Holyrood election should be used as a plebiscitary election - but there are two potential problems with that.  One is that the SNP leadership have clearly already decided not to go down that road, and even the best poll result is unlikely to change their minds.  The other problem is that I suspect that we wouldn't get a positive result anyway, because people would think we'd be jumping the fences too quickly.

To be honest, I'm still attracted to tacking on a question about whether Douglas Ross should give up refereeing in order to "get on with the day job", so to speak.  When I floated that idea last time, there was a very mixed reaction, and Craig Murray in particular thought it would demean the whole exercise of the poll.  Frivolous question though it may be, I do think it could prove extremely embarrassing for Ross - however, I suspect I'll probably let it go again in favour of more important questions.  

Click here to visit the fundraiser page.

54 comments:

  1. Plan B type question.
    Do you think Scotland has the right to hold a referendum. Yes, or No we need permission from Westminster.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm not against a plan B question, but I don't think that's a very good one

      Delete
  2. On the Douglas Ross question. Well Rrrrahh Glasgow Rrrrrangerrrrs have found out how to win without the help of Douglas Red Card Ross and that is to play in front of empty grounds.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Question for poll:

    " Do you agree that the people of Scotland have the right to hold an Independence Referendum based on the approval of a Holyrood majority vote if the PM refuses to agree to a S30 order"

    ReplyDelete
  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Can you ask a list holyrood question with isp on the list and get regional data?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why just ISP? What about all the other pop-up parties? Only asking about one could inflate its total (such as it was) by supporters of others plumping for it by default.

      Delete
  6. On plan b could you ask the question: in the even of a pro-independence majority government at holyrood 2021 led by the SNP, should wm reject a subsequent section 30 request for an independence referendum would you support the following: a) a non-legally binding consultative referendum from holyrood b) withdrawal of snp mps from wm c) refusal of scot govt to cooperate with UK government departments d) mass demonstrations attended by senior snp figures including Nicola Sturgeon

    ReplyDelete
  7. Each one is yes/no and they tick yes or no

    ReplyDelete
  8. You could ask if people remember Alex Salmond asking for a Section 30 order back in 2012. If people say Yes then it just proves the power of propaganda on the weak-minded, given that no such request was made.
    Remember Wendy Alexander and her sneering, "bring it on" at the labour branch office conference?
    Or remember cameron challenging Salmond to call the vote at every PMQs post the 2011 election? Search all you want but there is no mention of a section 30 order anywhere to be found.

    It is a lie concocted by Yoons and our beloved feminazi, science denying, care-home resident killing Sturgeonator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, an S30 isn't required for an iref. However, if Salmond knew at the time that unionists would pretend it was and would say no, he'd definitely have asked repeatedly. England's apparent refusal might have even been enough to give Yes a win in 2014. After all, England trying to say No is what has taken yes over the finish line now.

      Unlike Boris, Cameron was British and knew that him trying to block a referendum would do real damage to the unionist vote. It is a direct attack on Scottish unionists to remove their choice to be in the UK. Sturgeon and Salmond both understand this, Johnson doesn't, hence it's now ~55% Yes.

      Sturgeon and Yes should milk the red herring S30 for every vote right up until iref2 goes ahead anyway. As you say, it's only unionists that are saying we can't have an iref without it / holyrood won't hold one without an S30.

      Delete
    2. I know a number of people who were tipped to Yes by Johnson saying 'No'. They could no longer justify the union after he did that; how could they argue for something that England was attempting to force on Scotland and not a choice for Scots alone? They had to hang their heads and agree I was right all along. They're Scottish; how else could they possibly react?

      I find it hard to understand how anyone claiming to be Scottish could not understand this effect and why Sturgeon has been absolutely right to milk it the way she has.

      Delete
  9. There are more DKs for the List vote, than for the constituency vote. It would be good to know which parties such DKs would consider voting for on the List.

    ReplyDelete
  10. “Do you think the UK will stay outside of the European Union for a generation?” << giving the loaded “for a generation” phrase an update.

    “The quickest way for Scotland to return to the European Union is Scottish independence.” A separate question could be whether the individual personally supports this or not.

    But I do like the refereeing game question. That shot’s going straight into the net!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Plan A,B,C,D. Do not ask for a section 30 order. The Scottish people are SOVEREIGN, you ask them with a referendum. Independence, yes or no. That is all that's needed.
    The British [English] government has no say in the matter.

    ReplyDelete
  12. What about a question about who gets a vote in an independence referendum? By age, by residency status and for how long resident in Scotland, etc and Scottish tax ID? EU citizens? Now that Scotland has been dragged out of the EU, can resident EU citizens be given the vote? Where does Scotland stand now in those terms?
    Also, at some point, it would be good to know if people want independent international observers at the count, and what about ballot boxes, also re postal votes, they were taken to England to be counted last time? ...just a thought. Oh and who should get a postal vote?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All the people over 16 who are permanent residents in Scotland at the time of the registration to vote.

      Delete
    2. Would they get a vote though? It was all those qualified to vote in a Scottish Local Election in 2014. After Brexit, I'm not sure any EU citizens would qualify now. It would be about 200k votes lost to NO but, unfortunately, not 200k gained by YES. I would like to know if they do still qualify though.

      Delete
  13. I cannot believe folk really want to do what unionist want and stop asking for an S30. It's madness not to milk the Yes printing machine that is English Tories telling Scots union voters to 'shut up jock vermin - it's not a choice, we own your country'.

    The single most important reason of all for independence is not covid, not the EU, not left/right, not fisheries, not oil...

    But England trying to tell Scots that the union is not their choice. People are moving to Yes to 'take back control' of their country, which they feel is being forced down a path they don't want by England. Brexit...the pandemic...the economic hit from that...all things they feel are happening without them being able to do anything. Johnson telling them that he owns Scotland and they’re going down with the sinking ship just convinces them they are absolutely right to vote Yes. It removes any doubts they have that independence is the way forward; it will give them some sense of control in a time of turmoil.

    That and the union could only survive by free choice, and Johnson has killed what held it together; that Scots union voters felt they freely chose that. His 'No' was an attack on unionists, just as his attack on unionist devolution is. He thinks he's attacking indy supporters when he's doing the opposite; he's attacking British unionism in Scotland. Christ, I mean what are Tories going to say on the doorsteps? How can persuade people to vote for you after trying to take away their vote? Even the DUP are now voting with Sinn Fein, the SDLP and SNP against London rule. The man is a total wrecking ball for unionism.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cont...

      It is what has finally tipped the balance to Yes; the crossover occurred right after Johnson said No.

      It's not even in his power to give an S30. Folks know that right? Sturgeon is asking for something that isn't really needed that Johnson doesn't have the power to deliver himself anyway (it is a decision for parliament, not him) and she's doing it to print yes votes. I hope she'll keep doing it until we vote in iref2 with or without an S30.

      It's why wiser heads like Major are backing iref2 just like Cameron did for iref1. If he hadn't, the UK would already be over most probably.

      It's only in June this year that polls have reached the point that Yes can have some confidence of winning, i.e. the lead is bigger than MoE. Certainly, any referendum prior to Johnson's No was projected to be another win for the unionists; the Scottish polls were correct in 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019….so we can be pretty confident they’d have been right in any iref2 held up to now. It's why so many unionist concern trolls are demanding an iref be held last year / as soon as possible as each day is costing them more votes.
      Is Sturgeon nervous of holding a referendum? Aye, for sure. She doesn’t want to lose the one she organises in the way Salmond ‘lost’ iref1. But then he didn’t lose it; he was bounced into it by 2011 when Scots just were not ready for indy. What choice did he have when Cameron cleverly gambled and facilitated.

      The pandemic was something of an unknown as it is hard to plan in the midst of such events. Certainly, Johnson pressing ahead with English independence in the face of covid has hurt him a lot. It would have hurt sturgeon to push too hard as well. However, Holyrood has handled it well enough for a regional administration of one of the worst hit countries, and the desire for control in the face of such events has probably been the main driver if any in terms of it actually generating any Yes votes.

      Likewise, brexit with a deal was always going to make the shift to indy easier and gain it support. If you plan to vote for indy because you don’t want Brexit, then your Yes vote comes from Brexit actually going ahead. That’s now happened. There is no realistic going back. It’s time to vote Yes.

      Good news is, we all now know what the relationship between and EU/EEA Scotland and the rUK will look like at the very minimum. Like Johnson’s deal but with free movement like NI/Eire. Scotland as part of the EEA doing better than the UK, but with a comprehensive agreement ensuring trade continues relatively unimpeded.

      And in iref2 there’s not going to be any real Yes/No campaign. There’s not a whole lot of reason for Yes as that’s now the settled will it seems. At the same time, there’s nobody left to lead nor any good reason to vote for No.

      In a few months everyone over 50 will have been vaccinated, probably down to the 30s/40s by May. So the marches can begin as Scotland heads to Europe.

      I’ve waited decades for Scots to back Yes. I’m ok to wait just a wee bit longer until Yes is confirmed as formality.

      I’d also like to be able to hold a big party with everyone when the Yes comes in without having to stand a few metres from folk with a face mask on.

      Delete
    2. Just wanted to say that this is extremely inspiring stuff. I also look forward to the day we're finally away from the rotting UK.

      Delete
    3. Skier starting the New Year with his tired old "Yes vote printing machine" stuff. It didn't work back in 2017 when May said now is not the time to Sturgeons request and the vote in the 2017 Gen election dropped significantly.

      Delete
    4. Yes started to steadily rise from (45% or even less) in spring 2017 when May didn't say 'No', but said 'Now is not the time' then collapsed her own government and lost her majority. It crossed over in January 2020 when Johnson got a majority and said 'No'.

      https://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/how-would-you-vote-in-the-in-a-scottish-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask/?removed

      Delete
  14. As for poll questions...

    I think it's really only Y/N that matters now. If Yes is the settled will, it starts to become increasingly academic to ask why. I support independence because I want Scotland to govern itself. What other reason should people have really? It is ultimately this one that matters.

    We have had enough polls about the EU I feel. Scots back it and by 7/10 being in the EEA somehow. Backing for the EU has always been higher for independence compared to being in the UK. I'm not sure we can learn anything that we don't already know here.

    I suppose I could suggest something along the lines of:

    Since January 2020, the UK government led by Boris Johnson has refused requests from the Scottish Government led by Nicola Sturgeon to facilitate an independence referendum by means of a Section 30 order, which was the process used in the 2014 referendum.
    Has this refusal by Boris Johnson and the UK government made you:
    A. More supportive of independence
    B. Less supportive of independence
    C. No difference

    I suspect A will win with recent converts / DKs and C with 2014 Yes voters.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Who, in the present Scottish Government, has asked for a section 30 order.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Scottish Government has not requested a S30 order.
      Nor did Alex Salmond. It was offered by London only AFTER the Indyref had been called.
      Facts are chiels that winna ding.
      Dae yer research!

      Delete
    2. As of December 2019, 16 Orders have been made under section 30(2) of the 1998 Scotland Act.

      They can and have been raised by both the UK and Scottish Governments.

      In 2014, the Section 30 request was from the UK government, not Holyrood as Ramstam notes.

      Delete
    3. The Scottish parliament voted in support of requesting a new Section 30 order on the 28th March 2017.

      Theresa May's government made no formal response to the request. Instead, May collapsed her government by calling a snap general election where she lose her majority, meaning she no longer had a majority capable of delivering a section 30. Holyrood did not raise a Section 30 request with the incoming Tory-DUP administration.

      Delete
  16. I have one " 65 countries have broken from the English leash. Can you name any that regretted it and asked to go back in ?"

    ReplyDelete
  17. Do you believe Scotland will ever rejoin the EU as an independent country?

    Yes / no

    Have circumstances since the 2014 Scot indy referendum changed to the extent a new referendum is now justified at the earliest opportunity ?

    Yes / No

    A compromise deal for NI was negotiated by the UK govt with the EU. Should the UK govt have negotiated a separate compromise deal for Scotland?

    Yes / No

    Thinking to the future which do you believe the most likely situation in 10 years time.

    Independent Scotland in the EU
    Independent Scotland outside the EU
    Scotland part of the UK, outside EU
    Scotland part of UK, UK has rejoined EU

    Has Scotland been listened to during UK govt negotiations with the EU

    Yes / no

    ReplyDelete
  18. The Times has a massive MPR survey in; 22000 respondents. Done prior to the Brexit deal so maybe not current (but useful for comparison). Labour and Conservatives neck and neck around 280 seats with SNP in high 50's.
    Labour government 2024 - 29 possible with an SNP supply and confidence.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oops, seems you beat me too it. Mair details below.

      Delete
    2. SNP - supply and confidence deal?
      NO DEAL! if SNP holds 57 of Scotland's 59 seats WE'RE AWAY!
      think Scottish not British.

      Delete
  19. Do you think MSP's/MP's should be allowed to have a second job?

    ReplyDelete
  20. It is true that Sturgeon has a very high approval rating. It is also true that Sturgeon and her pals have been persecuting Salmond for 3 years and tried to send Salmond to jail.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You do know we just scroll on past your pish, don't you? In the spirit of reconcilliation, I thought I'd let you know.
      Just this once.

      Delete
    2. You would think IFS, aka Cubby, would realise that nobody is fooled by his rubbish.

      Delete
    3. Aha , the psycho troll Juteman is back also trying to be a detective. I suppose that post is an improvement on his previous disgusting posts.

      A happy new year to you Alan as well. Scroll on by if you want Alan it is your fundamental right to do so and remain ignorant.

      Delete
  21. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-politics-poll/pm-johnson-could-lose-his-seat-and-majority-at-next-election-poll-idUKKBN2970M9

    PM Johnson could lose his seat and majority at next election - poll

    LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to lose his own seat and neither of the two main political parties is likely to win an outright majority at the next general election, not due until 2024, according to a new poll...

    ...The so-called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll found the ruling Conservatives would lose 81 seats, wiping out the 80-seat majority. This would leave the Conservatives with 284 seats, while the opposition Labour Party would win 282 seats, the poll showed.

    The Scottish National Party, which wants to break away from the rest of the United Kingdom, is predicted to win 57 of the 59 seats in Scotland, meaning the party could potentially play a kingmaker role in forming the next government.


    I'm pretty confident we won't be around for this, but nice all the same.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Anecdotal evidence.

    Friend yesterday:

    'Back in 2014, apart from me, it was only you two that I knew that supported independence. Now all my friends do. Things have totally changed'.

    Neighbour previously rather quiet on the subject:

    'Johnson's a ****er, brexit's a disaster, and I'm totally sick of all this UK 'yous are anti-English' sh**e. We are definitely voting Yes. Bring it on.'

    Still no mention of the Salmond case from anyone I know apart from a brexit voting unionist.

    ReplyDelete
  23. The bungling bampot Brexiteer UK gov has made a bolloks of every aspect of the Covid pandemic to date. It is very worrying that they are going to continue in this fashion and do the same with the vaccine(s).

    I do miss reading James Kelly's articles on the virus.

    ReplyDelete
  24. James, well done on reaching your target. We are lucky to have this site to discuss polls.

    ReplyDelete
  25. If it hasn't been said already the obvious question should be.
    =============================================================

    Should the SG go ahead with an Independence Referendum without the S30 being granted by the effin anti Scottish English Tories.
    ==============================================================

    We all know or at least those of us who believe in Scots Indy know that the effin English Tories and their yoon lick-spittle's in Scotland are never going to grant the S30.

    I see others have asked the same question in another way.

    ReplyDelete
  26. I see the Rev has taken Wings followers to the next level of Worship!
    "I know things none of you know", "I cannot print it for fear of prison" , "just trust in my acquired secret knowledge"

    You must have got to him James.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's amazing what Scottish politics secrets you can find out about in Somerset. A real hotbed of SNP insiders.

      Delete
  27. The Rev is plunging down the credibility rankings. He'll soon find himself below James Kelly (Lab) and Jackie Baillie if he's not careful. Two people he once spent article after article ridiculing but now quotes as trusted sources. Says it all really. He can no longer be counted as a pro-indy blogger.

    ReplyDelete
  28. James, you could ask folk if they actually understand what S30 is? That would be a bit of an eye-opener

    ReplyDelete
  29. The two main points coming out of the latest Wings article:
    1. Wings 'wants Sturgeon to resign'
    2. Unionists 'want Sturgeon brought down now or as close to the election as possible'

    ReplyDelete
  30. Amazed that people still read Wings. I was a frequent reader years ago I till the point he lost it and reverted to ramblings. His headers that I see on Facebook have him coming across as a security services plant and no friend of the independence movement.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Few people would know who Douglas Ross is anyway. You’d be getting the opinion of the small fraction of the total people polled, and maybe a few guesses on top.

    ReplyDelete