Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Independence is backed by unprecedented 55-45 margin in new Panelbase poll - and that's "decisive", if every BBC report in 2014 is to be believed

As I pointed out last week, the 53% Yes vote in the YouGov poll couldn't be directly compared with the 54% in the two most recent Panelbase polls, because each firm has its own methods. And the thought did cross my mind that the 57% SNP vote found by YouGov - higher than any other firm has reported since the 2016 election - might be a clue that things have actually improved further, rather than stayed steady or gone slightly backwards. Today's latest Panelbase poll for Business for Scotland, showing Yes reaching a new high watermark, might well support that theory.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 55% (+1)
No 45% (-1)

"Decisive margin" said every BBC report in 2014.  (There was such consistent usage of the word "decisive" by the BBC in 2014 that obviously an edict had gone out from on high.)  "The settled will of the Scottish people" said David Cameron in 2014.  It's happened, folks: Yes now lead by exactly the same margin that No won the 2014 indyref by - and judging from the British establishment's own past words, they should be regarding this development as game over.

To put it in perspective, before this calendar year, only a small handful of Panelbase polls had ever shown a Yes lead, and no Panelbase poll had ever shown a Yes vote higher than 52%.  The last three have now shown Yes on either 54% or 55%.  By any standards, the evidence of a major breakthrough is overwhelming.  Of course the further 1% increase since the last poll is well within the margin of error - if Yes was holding steady at around 54%, you'd expect some polls to show the figure at 53% or 55% (or indeed 52% or 56%), so we'll have to wait for more information before concluding that the upward trend is continuing.  But that should certainly be regarded as a real possibility.


  1. Umm - "We are the 55".

    Need to get a new badge.

    1. As a matter of urgency, yes we do need the very vivid new badge for

  2. We can sell the '45 badges to the No side.

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    2. LOL, that immediately jumped into my head!

      Where's GWC when you need him.

    3. Boris isn’t in Scotland on holiday. He’s hunting down all the 45 badges and regalia

  3. Now ComRes issue an Independence poll Yes 54 - No 46%. Seems the trend is clear.

  4. Sturgeon's an utterly shite unionist. They need to replace her quickly.

  5. Looks like the split down the middle narrative is for the scrapheap.
    Unionists will be doubling down on the love bombing by showing us no respect whatsoever.
    We'll be told next that a supermajority is required for independence.
    Or that every part of Scotland needs to return over 50% in Indyref2.
    Remember, the last refuge of the Unionists is partition.
    The gloves will be coming off. No stone will be left unturned.
    The media are already being used to split the SNP.
    Don't take the bait. Unity is strength.
    Eyes on the prize. We're winning.

  6. LoL
    Someone needs to tell the BBC about this. They don’t seem to have noticed yet.

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