I think this may be the most extraordinary opinion poll finding I've ever seen - maybe not in terms of its long-term significance, but certainly in terms of how startling it is. Survation interviewed more than 3000 UK adults between the 16th and 23rd of April, and asked them to give a number of institutions, broadcasters and newspapers a score out of ten for providing trustworthy information related to the current emergency. It turns out that the Scottish Government is not only far more trusted than the UK Government, it's also more trusted than twenty-one of the other twenty-two information sources listed - with only the NHS itself scoring more favourably. Yes, folks, the Scottish Government is considered a more trusted source than BBC News - which, given the mythology surrounding the BBC, ought to be an absolute impossibility.
Here is the percentage of respondents who gave each information source a score of at least 7 out of 10...
National Health Service: 81%
Scottish Government: 70%
Organisation I work for: 64%
Welsh Government: 56%
UK Government: 54%
Local council/regional authority: 52%
BBC News: 52%
Friends/family: 51%
Channel 4 News: 50%
Northern Ireland Executive: 48%
ITV News: 47%
Sky News: 44%
Private healthcare provider: 39%
News media: 39%
The Guardian: 39%
Financial Times: 38%
Channel 5 News: 34%
The Times: 33%
The Telegraph: 29%
Daily Mail: 21%
Daily Express: 19%
Daily Mirror: 19%
The Sun: 14%
So far only a summary of the poll's results has appeared on Twitter - I can't see any sign of the datasets on the Survation website. That means we need to be a little careful about jumping to conclusions - there's just a chance that the Scottish Government was only offered as an option to respondents in Scotland, the Welsh Government was only offered as an option to respondents in Wales, and so on. But assuming that all of the results are genuinely UK-wide, the Scottish Government's showing is nothing short of incredible. Usually Britain-wide ratings for the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon or the Scottish Government don't tell us very much at all - either there is a very large amount of Don't Knows for understandable reasons, or the numbers are negative in a knee-jerk way due to Jock-bashing in the London media. I would guess what's different on this occasion is that the public have been actively seeking out information about the pandemic wherever they can find it, and as a result there have been high levels of exposure to the Scottish Government's televised briefings. That has allowed people to make up their own minds without going through the filter of Laura Kuenssberg, Sarah Smith or whoever, and it appears that they find those briefings more authoritative, detailed and honest than almost anything else they've seen.
Is that assessment justified? As far as the contributions of Nicola Sturgeon and Jeane Freeman are concerned, I would say yes, absolutely - Ms Sturgeon in particular is renowned for the unusual trait of actually answering direct questions, rather than answering the questions she wished she'd been asked instead. As regular readers know, I'm much more dubious about Jason Leitch, who it seems to me has been blagging his way through this crisis and mainly just lustily regurgitating whatever happens to be the London line from Whitty and Vallance on any given day. I've been spontaneously contacted in recent days by a couple of people with strong scientific backgrounds, and they were both scathing in their verdict on Leitch. But of course the poll simply measures perceptions of trustworthiness. There's no doubt that Leitch has the gift of the gab and that some people are tremendously impressed by that.
UPDATE: It's been pointed out to me on Twitter that Carl Shoben of Survation clarified that only respondents in Scotland were asked about the Scottish Government. Nevertheless, it's the Scottish people who will decide the outcome of next year's Holyrood election, and it appears that their relationship with Nicola Sturgeon and her ministerial team has grown much stronger as a result of this crisis.
Hopefully shuts some of the online Nicola haters up for a While.
ReplyDeleteMessage is key, messenger is crucial.
James, any chance of scotgoespop doing another poll?
I still hope to do that at some point, but there's only a little more than £1000 left over from the fundraiser. I'd need to run another fundraiser to top that up, so I'll have to wait until things settle down and people's minds turn back to regular politics. That might be quite a while.
DeleteIt would be good to get a surveys on views around specific politicians. The heat on NS might increase over the next few months and there needs to be ongoing evidence that she continues to be the safest pair of hands in the eyes of the country.
DeleteTo be fair you can't reason with some of the folk looking to topple her, it is madness. They need to realise we need a leader for the country as a whole, who they can trust, not just a movement.
It's also encouraging that the shit heaps of the Mail, Express and Sun came so deservedly low. Maybe there is still hope for humanity.
ReplyDeleteso the BBCs 52% would be from UK wide respondents, would it be possible to get the BBC Scotland trusted % from respondents in Scotland?
ReplyDelete7-10 trust (inc) = 41.6% in Scotland
DeletePoor result for the BBC in Scotland.
DeleteTo be in second place behind the NHS is pretty impressive.
ReplyDeleteTables:
https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/30144354/Survation-COVID19-Survey-April-2020-Data-Tables.xlsx
Considering all the UK Govs are giving out the same information the people polled must be thick Nat sis.
ReplyDeleteWorking class (<20k) Scots are the most trusting at 80%. Middle class (20-40k) less so at 76%, with the wealthiest (40k+) the least at 63%.
DeleteMaybe if you stopped calling Scots thick, support for the union would be stronger.
DeletePeople who are polled are likely to give an opinion based on their personal political views and the press drivel. The Union is strong and we will crashing out of the EU. You sound like you believe the regurgitated press drivel and your own propaganda. The health of our people is more important. You just keep counting the English dead and get your rocks off.
Delete'People who are polled are likely to give an opinion based on their personal political views'
DeleteSo what you're saying is that there's very strong support for NS and the SNP? Fair enough.
"People who are polled are likely to give an opinion based on their personal political views and the press drivel"
DeleteThe press rate rather poorly in this poll. Are they brainwashing people to trust the SG more than them?
The idiot GWC doesn't even understand the implications of his own comments far less anything else.
ReplyDeleteCovidia is doing a great job of helping the independence movement.
DeleteCovidia's a marvel. It would be great to think she was real, but I reckons it's a pro-independence person having a right laugh.
DeleteThe embittered rage has been too consistent. I suspect that Covidia is the only Unionist troll too dense to receive payment for its ravings.
DeleteScotland's total covid testing capacity is now 8,350 per day, increasing to more than 10,000 next week.
ReplyDeleteYour conclusion is undone by the previous paragraph, James. The survey is measuring perception of trustworthiness, not the strength of people's relationship with the Scottish Government.
ReplyDeleteA distinction without a difference.
DeleteNicola Sturgeon has won politics by not doing politics
ReplyDeletePeople buy what they like the look and sound of, they like to feel they get to know the person they're dealing with and listening to
Nicola Sturgeon has offered herself to the people of Scotland and I have to say England too, and they like the look of what they see and hear so they want to buy that and have chosen her as best suited to their taste
Other politicians obviously don't taste good and are being shoved to the side of the plate
You are a liar. She is following UK policy to the letter. You Nat sis have clearly been reading up on Goebells your favourite German.
DeleteSNP second only to the NHS in terms of trust. Amazing.
DeleteIsn't it. The BBC must be livid. "What have we been doing wrong?"
DeleteSie schottisch Faschisten erzahlen bessere geschicten als wir.
ReplyDeleteWas ist denn das für ein Quatsch?
Deletehttps://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1256263266730467329?s=20
ReplyDeleteLatest Westminster voting intention (SCOTLAND, 24-27 April)
DeleteSNP - 51%
Con - 25%
Lab - 15%
Lib Dem - 6%
Green - 2%
Brexit Party - 0%
Other - 1%
52% for BBC. Still too feckin high.
ReplyDeleteIt is but that is UK wide opionion as has been pointed out, see Scottish skier@9.50am, in Scotland it's 41% for the BBC...
Deletevery low trust in them. Even many unionists in Scotland have given up on the BBC.
Do you know what the Scottish figure for the UK Government was? I betting it is a lot lower than 54%
DeleteInteresting piece, sorry you feel that way about Jason Lietch, I think he has done well and is always clear, whoever's line he may be following. The gift of the gab isn't a bad thing when you need to communicate with people, lets compare him with BJ who many would say also has the gift of the gab, the difference is BJ says nothing with many many words while JL imparts clear instruction.
ReplyDeleteWell...first of all, what matters most is not whether those instructions are clear, but whether they are harmful. In March, Leitch was advising people to go to mass gatherings. He was saying that even at the peak of the epidemic, elderly and vulnerable people would not be advised to avoid social contact, and indeed that their social contact with family members would actually *increase*. Why was he giving such perverse and dangerous advice? Because he was a herd immunity enthusiast and wanted the vast majority of people to become infected. And he felt that way because that was what the likes of Vallance had decreed was "the science".
Delete