Sunday, October 6, 2019

Better news for the SNP with Opinium

As a counterbalance to my post about the run of relatively unimpressive YouGov subsamples for the SNP, here's some better news from Opinium (well, "better" if you leave aside the enormous Tory lead at GB level).

Britain-wide voting intentions (Opinium):

Conservatives 38% (+2)
Labour 23% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 15% (-5)
Brexit Party 12% (+1)
SNP 5% (n/c)
Greens 4% (+2)
UKIP 1% (+1)

Scottish subsample: SNP 48%, Conservatives 25%, Labour 11%, Brexit Party 9%, Liberal Democrats 7%

The subsample figures shouldn't be taken as seriously as YouGov's, because Opinium don't properly structure/weight their Scottish subsamples.  Nevertheless, we can certainly draw some reassurance from the fact that this is the second Opinium poll in the space of a week to put the SNP on a hefty 5% of the Britain-wide vote, and with a bit of luck that might mean that the SNP's recent dip in YouGov polling has been caused by random sampling variation rather than by real changes on the ground.  Time will tell.

No other pollster has yet picked up the slump in Lib Dem support across Britain that Opinium are reporting, so we should take that finding with a pinch of salt until it's corroborated.  But at the very least, it looks unlikely that the Lib Dems have been making any more progress over the last week.

There's also no cause for panic about the 15-point Tory lead across Britain, because Opinium have recently emerged as the most Tory-friendly pollster, producing figures for the Conservatives that are several points higher than other firms.  That doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong, of course, but there's a degree of uncertainty about whether the Tories are really that far ahead.  In any case, we know that the electorate is extremely volatile at the moment, and that the situation can change very quickly.  In particular, I'd have thought that Remain voters in England may well coalesce mainly around one party as the official campaign progresses - that party might be Labour or it might be the Lib Dems, but at some point people are going to stop looking for perfection, and start looking for the best option to stop Boris Johnson.

48 comments:

  1. Blackford apparanty requested today that Corbyn respected democracy. That will go down in the anus of history.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. I recommend that you take one of the new whisky capsules as a suppository to ensure a good night's sleep.
      The revenue will be credited to an office in London.

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    2. I assume you tried this before recommendation.

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    3. My lady friend has been inserting Cameron Brig single grain up my arse with a syringe for the past 8 years.

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    4. Impersonators do not have a real life. But do go on if need be.

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    5. Do you have someone to take over from your lady friend on syringe duty when she has a sleep break?

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    6. Norbert tell your pal to exit your bum and breathe.

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    7. Fascinating,

      GWC and GWC hate each other.

      "Norbert tell your pal to exit your bum and breathe."

      You've just got to stand back and love it.

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    8. Douglas or as he is known at the weekends, Gloria Handbag.

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    9. Was that a joint statement -- or is GWC empowered to act for GWC?

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  2. Everybody knows what the Tories are about, Labour will lie by omission and the Lib Dems lie wearing a tweed jacket and support Tories anyway

    The English have nothing to choose from

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  3. English nats saying they are open to overruling any DUP veto at Stormont on the backstop.

    If that happens, the big pro-remain majority there will ensure it stays effectively in the EU, marking the official start of UK break-up.

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    1. I agree with that and have been saying so for months. I am thrilled to see you saying the same thing. It's marvellous.

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    2. Does anyone seriously think that England would trash it's own economy for no reason other than to keep paying for the 'subsidy junkie pish artist flute playing mick sounding desperate wannabe English' in N. Ireland?

      For Boris it's got to look like the EU has caved in though, and they'll smile along with that well enough if it ensures the backstop.

      The DUP have no power over him. Not now. The ERG never gave a shit about NI anyway; they only cared about the England being stuck in a UK-wide backstop. That was the one nation unionist Tory trick to stop brexit or at least ensure the UK might have a chance of surviving it.

      But Boris and the English nats have killed all the British one nation unionists in the night of the long kippers. They even took out Ruth as a favour to Nicola.

      It's all too calm to be a crash out. A plan has been agreed and the show is playing out now.

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    3. Brexit is here soon and the Irish will suffer and deservedly so. They ignored the referendum in their own country when the EU fascists threatened them economically. They had another referendum and the shite bag Irish capitulated to the fascists. Poor Ireland now an EU Parish Council. This is what the Scottish Nat sis want for Scotland. Never I Say and up yer kilts.

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    4. Poor Skier you have attempted to divide the Union and Ulster Unionionism with your ROI EU crap. You will lose. The silent majority just go to the ballot box and fuck your kind.

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    5. When London starts going bang it'll be England getting fucked by the Irish from both sides of the border you stupid little Brit

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    6. Get you friend to withdraw slowly. If he pulls out fast you'll be screaming like a girl.

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    7. N. Ireland backstop here we come!

      https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-barclay/uk-could-be-flexible-on-details-of-northern-ireland-veto-customs-plan-idUKKCN1WL05M

      UK could be flexible on details of Northern Ireland veto, customs plan

      One unionist betrayal coming right up!

      N. Ireland will be staying in the EU. It's that or no deal with the EU, the USA, or any country who has a deal with these two or wants one.

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    8. I'm going viral on this. The nat si flag wagglers have lost and they know it. Rule Brittania

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  4. Meanwhile naebody in London is lying awake at night thinking 'What can we do for Scotland'
    It's DIY Democracy for Scotland.
    The only numbers they care about is the billions in scottish taxes and revenues the London treasury is desperate to keep its hands on.
    Aye and the 6 thousand square miles of Scottish seas that Blair's red Tories stole from Scotland.
    After Brexit and Scottish independence they'll be counting the pennies right enough.

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  5. Aye NI Backstop it is - well dressed to save the blond one's face, of course. A great victory over the U. Aye right!


    Have to admit though, this promise of a backstop veto to the DUP was a blinder. It effectively keeps em onboard until it's too late. Keeps em quiet until the dirty deed is done and dusted and then they get thrown under the bus as planned.And what do the DUP get for all their stubborness, for al their hard work? Well, a billion quid and a united Ireland now looks a not too distant possibility. Well done DUP, talk about playing a great hand. LOL.

    Bad news for the Scottish economy though - very difficult to compete with NI that effectively gets to have its cake and eat it. Job done. :)

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  6. BREAKING NEWS: Wingsy's latest poll results finger SNP confusion on Brexit strategy. (But why does he assume that Yes-Leavers want No Deal? I don't.)

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    1. Some Winger confusion below-the-line as to what the poll results actually mean.
      (" Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
      7 October, 2019 at 1:44 pm
      You’re getting really dangerously close to being told to fuck off now.")

      Still, I suppose it'll all be worth it when we get to Question 57:
      a) would you vote for a party without a manifesto?
      b) do you believe that Scotland is crying out for a techno-savvy Man Of Destiny?

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  7. Is the SNP's goal not to keep unionists guessing about strategy?

    Presuming they've not given up on indy, then people vote for them for that main reason, not their micro strategy for England's brexit on a day to day basis.

    After all, we know their macro approach for brexit = leave the UK with Scotland a member of the EU or EEA/EFTA as an indy state.

    I don't in that sense understand what the Wings article is really about.

    The data say 'SNP voters vote SNP (mainly) because they want independence and know that the SNP's goal is indy in the EU/EEA. They are not sure of exact strategy for getting that, but they presume it's one or more off this list'.

    Personally, I think there's not enough blind panic in either the UK government, the opposition, the Scottish government, or the EU states to suggest anyone thinks a hard brexit is coming.

    Ergo, it looks like the N. Irish unionists will be thrown under a bus as was the plan of England from the outset. The DUP scuppered that by planning to take down May. At the same time, Tory remainers thought extending the backstop to the whole UK would scupper brexit completely. However, they've been ousted and the DUP neutered by circumstances.

    And so N. Ireland will leave the UK (single market, customs and immigration zone), meaning the UK breakup begins formally.

    A backstopped N. Ireland is the worst fear of Scottish unionists as it would show Scots how easy leaving the UK would be, while getting them asking why they are not allowed to do it.

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    1. The Nat sis strategy is simple and clear. They want to leave the age old Union with their neighbour and then sell Scotland out to the EU economic dictatorship.

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    2. And it won't work because we won't let it. We have friends who know how to sort things out and sort out the nat sis. We did it over the water and we'll do it again. Nickerless has been warned what will happen.

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  8. If Johnson can get the bulk of the Tories to vote for brexit plan involving a full N. Ireland backstop just before the cliff edge, then a crash out brexit becomes the fault of the opposition if they don't back it too.

    If an extension is forced, then he can go to the public saying 'It's not me that's dragging this out, but the opposition'. He wins the GE.

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  9. I see Wings has done one of his silly question polls in a childish attempt to make the SNP look bad again and he's losing the plot because half the BTL posters are ridiculing it as nonsense

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    1. Sir James occupies the psephological high ground.

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    2. Indeed - not sure if it's out of genuine concern, an attempt to shake the SNP into action, or a rather cynical attempt to prepare the ground for a new, populist party. Jury's out, I suppose.

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    3. You sound like a Dago or a Spic. Time you packed up and went home. Britain for the British. British jobs for British workers.

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    4. It looks as though many more people are beginning to see the light. One of the latest posts on Wings states, ''Have you turned against Independence? as you seem to be doing the Yoons work for them.

      ''I can tell you that people are commenting on your actions on Facebook and are wondering which side you are really on.''


      He'll go too far and find that his crowdfunding will take a big hit and that's all that really matters to him now.

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  10. Love to know when this deal is going to get voted on. Parliament prorogues after tomorrow, then its back on the 14th for the Queens speech with 6 days of debate to follow that.

    So no chance of a vote before he has to write his letter asking for an extension, and when he does hes finished. Brexit party will easily take the 2/3% from the Conservatives which will stop them getting a majority. All they have to do is have constantly show clips of him lying to Brexiters about not asking for an extension.

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    1. Is Johnson really going to force lizzie to do a Tory party PPB?

      That's all any program for government can be, what with him sans majority and a GE in the waiting.

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    2. Yup, and with it any chance of getting a deal through parliament. Thats why there is no panic in the EU etc, they all agree with the Scottish Judges today that Boris will be asking for an extension in a couple of weeks. I understand that the only real discussion between EU leaders now is if that extension will go on will the end of Jan or the end of June.

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    3. Unfortunately for English remainers, with 50% of the population (within MoE) supporting brexit, it's just not going to go away. If we have EUref 2 and remain wins by 52%, we'll be in the same situation, with the Leavers still wanting it, so voting accordingly in GEs. The UK actually has to leave to resolve this. That or somehow leave drops back to below 40% or so.

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  11. Now a Winger has a question for SGPers -

    "Are you one of these SGP sycophantic people who thinks it wrong to respond without subservience, saying “get to fuck, dickwad” to a dickwad who calls people “cowardly?” Splash your boots, here’s his “abusive language” reply to a completely sensible comment:

    “My patience is wearing a bit thin with that sort of cowardly jibe from anonymous commenters.” "

    Here is some background information -

    "The guy effectively censors at least some opinions that don’t agree with him. While abusing people in his actual articles."

    And "His Majesty" would ask you to think very carefully about how you are going to vote.

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    1. Is Scottish Skier your real name?

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    2. Anonymous commentators are cowards too, says a person with a nom de plume

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    3. My name is Ross Anderson. A few posters on here have even met me in person. I'm nobody of importance.

      But 'anonymous' means not using the same moniker each time, but just 'anon'. Do that and you clearly want to hide like a big chicken.

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    4. Quite so. And I would actually have deleted Anon's latest cowardly comment if there hadn't already been five replies. Because this blog does actually have a moderation policy, and crazy though it may seem, one of the things that triggers that moderation policy is telling the author of the blog to "get to f**k, d***wad".

      If the penny hasn't dropped yet, I'll spell it out: you are no longer welcome to comment here, Anon.

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  12. The latest UK poll by Comres has the SNP at 40%. They tend to have the SNP lower than other polls so this is an increase on their last poll. The full data sets can be found here.

    https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/the-telegraph-voting-intention-october-2019/

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  13. Ross Anderson, strange name for an Irishman.

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    1. Good that you see me as an honest man. That's the reason Yes had been slowly but surely winning.

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    2. I would not doubt your personal integrity. Politics propaganda and fake news go hand in hand.

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