Saturday, April 27, 2019

Landmark YouGov poll suggests SNP are on course for landslide victories at the next Westminster and Holyrood elections

First things first: I have another new article at The National website (yes, the second today!), this time about the implications of the sensational new YouGov poll.  You can read it HERE.

By now you've probably caught up with the other details from the poll that we didn't know about last night, but here they are for the sake of completeness...

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster:

SNP 43% (+3)
Conservatives 20% (-5)
Labour 17% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)
Brexit Party 4% (n/a)
Greens 3% (n/c)
Change UK 2% (n/a)
UKIP 1% (-1)

Although those numbers differ quite a bit from the Survation poll the other day, the seats projection based on a uniform swing is absolutely identical: SNP 51 (+16), Liberal Democrats 4 (n/c), Conservatives 3 (-10), Labour 1 (-6).

We've focussed a lot on the sudden slump in Scottish Tory support, but these are also truly desperate days for Scottish Labour.  To put it in perspective, the Tories are polling lower with YouGov than they were in the Survation poll that put them in third place, but in this case it's actually enough to hold onto second place quite comfortably because Labour support has collapsed as well.

In principle, do you think there should or should not be a referendum on Scottish independence at some point in the next five years?

Should be a referendum: 42% (+2)
Should not be a referendum: 48% (-4)

An anonymous commenter on the previous thread made a sarcastic comment about Scottish Skier "trying to make 42 sound like a bigger number than 48", but the reality is that YouGov - for reasons I don't fully understand - have consistently reported less enthusiasm for a second indyref than their fellow polling firms.  A 42/48 split is considerably better than it's been in the past.  I wouldn't be surprised if a firm like Panelbase would now be showing a majority in favour of an early referendum.

It's an intriguing development, because it's only a few weeks ago that the media were breathlessly telling us about "private research" that supposedly showed opposition to a referendum "hardening".

Holyrood constituency ballot voting intentions:

SNP 46% (+5)
Conservatives 22% (-5)
Labour 16% (-6)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Brexit Party 4% (n/a)
Greens 3% (+1)
Change UK 1% (n/a)

Holyrood regional list ballot voting intentions:

SNP 37% (+5)
Conservatives 20% (-6)
Labour 15% (-6)
Greens 10% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 7% (n/c)
Brexit Party 5% (n/a)
Change UK 2% (n/a)

The seats projection in the Times has the two pro-independence parties on a combined total of 74 seats, and the unionist parties on 55.  That would represent a sharp increase in the current pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament - quite a contrast from most recent polls which have suggested there would be no such majority at all.


  1. Section 30 refusal is certainly doing the trick.

    I'd have voted Leave in an instant if Brussels had tried to tell the UK it couldn't legally hold an EUref without Junker's permission...and then Junker refused permission.

    We are certainly in the very last days of the Union if the only way London can think of holding it together is by ending democracy.

    Must be milked for every vote.

    1. Well, thank you for defining the nature of Independence support and the SNP in general. You said "I'd vote Leave in an instant" if! Weak, aggressive, negative and most of all unprincipled unruly rebelling teenagers.

  2. I can mind frae way back when the question was "what happens when England says no" Answer- big rise in support for SNP and independence. Nobody panic!

    1. Can you? Aye? Wow.
      (Wake me up when Mikey Bubbles starts singing 'Edelwisse')