Monday, July 23, 2012

Panelbase poll : Majority of men support independence

The predictable slant of the report in the Express on the latest independence poll is that supporters of "separation"/"the break-up of Britain"/"hell on Earth" have got a problem - this time a problem with women, because if you strip out the undecideds, 61% of female voters are planning to vote No. Fairy-nuffski, but by the same token it's only reasonable to point out that the No side have got a similar problem with men, because 51% of male voters (excluding undecideds) are planning to vote Yes.

Here are the overall results for all voters -

Yes 36%
No 45%
Undecided 20%

That isn't much use for showing changes in support, because the headline figures from the last Panelbase independence poll I can find (from February) excluded undecideds. Based on my own calculation, here is the direct comparison -

Yes 44% (-3)
No 56% (+3)

The figures are actually more like 55.5%-44.5%, but rounding produces the above effect. So a slight increase in the No lead, but this is self-evidently still a very close race with more than two full years of campaigning ahead of us.

* * *

UPDATE : Even better news from the SNP website - the same Panelbase poll has voting intention figures, which show a whopping lead for the Nationalists.

Holyrood constituency vote :

SNP 47%
Labour 32%
Conservatives 12%
Liberal Democrats 6%

* * *

UPDATE II : I see from my stats that at 1528 BST, this blog received a visitor from Tucson, home of Kevin Baker. At 1534 BST, the blog that Conan linked to in the comments thread on Saturday received the following anonymous contribution -

"If you've actually seen the latest Batman film, you might want to note that (SPOILER ALERT!)

Catwoman blows Bane away with THE CANNON MOUNTED ON THE BATCYCLE - and suggests that Batman may need to rethink his "no guns" philosophy in the face of almost having his head blown off by Bane with a 12 gauge double-barreled sawed-off shotgun."

Coincidence? Seems unlikely. I posted this response -

"Alternatively, he might want to persevere with the no guns philosophy to ensure that Bane doesn't have the 12 gauge double-barreled sawed-off shotgun in the first place.

Just a thought."


  1. I think more needs to me made of the 47% constituency vote for the SNP, and this after 5 years of government.

    I wonder what David Cameron and Nick Clegg would give for the same level of popularity after 2 years.

    I don't worry at all about being behind in the independence debate.

    We've just had months of the Queen's jubilee and Team GB in the Coca Cola Olympics. That will soon be over, and barring Kate Middleton getting pregnant and producing a son, I can't imagine much else that is going to encourage the waving of the union flag.

    On the other hand day after day the inept Westminster government make life more and more difficult for Brits and more and more people see that there is no real choice in UK politics: Blue Tories, Red Tories and Yellow Tories.

    Scotland, on the other hand, does have a choice.

    I believe that that will become clear to people in the next 2 years despite the BBC's and unionist press's efforts to distort news.

  2. "barring Kate Middleton getting pregnant and producing a son, I can't imagine much else that is going to encourage the waving of the union flag"

    Tris, if you'll excuse the innuendo, there will be elements of the British state queuing up to ensure exactly that.

    If the poll figures are to believed and the "No"s are sitting at 53% and the "yes"s at 47% (with the obligatory 3% margin of error they could be same), and at a time when we've just had as much jingoistic flag waving as it's possible to muster, I'd be pretty worried to be dave cameron right now.

  3. Nope, not me, but I believe I'll borrow that.

    Believe it or not, James, but I DO have friends, and they send me interesting emails.

    Now, how do you intend to go about ensuring that all double-barreled shotguns are taken from the hands of the public? Even England, with its strictest gun laws in the world still allows those.

    Never mind - rhetorical question. I don't feel like following you down that particular rabbit-hole.

  4. Very wise. The rabbits are probably armed.