So I'm just catching up with the latest Welsh voting intention poll, which comes from More In Common, who don't seem to have done any full-scale Welsh polls before.
Senedd voting intentions (More In Common, 18th June-3rd July 2025):
Reform UK 28%
Plaid Cymru 26%
Labour 23%
Conservatives 10%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Greens 4%
It's obviously disappointing that More In Common haven't corroborated the two YouGov polls showing Plaid in the outright lead, but in one sense that may not matter. Progressive parties have a majority of the vote between them, which ought to mean that the Plaid leader would become First Minister on these numbers, at the head of a 'keep Reform out' coalition. Admittedly it would be in Labour's power to scupper that, and to allow a minority Reform government to take office - but how would they do it without being seen to do it? How would they do it without suffering massive reputational damage as a result? I think they would have to swallow their pride and let Plaid take the reins.
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Reform UK would end up as a minority administration on those figures.
ReplyDeleteNot so, unless Labour facilitate that. Centre-left parties would have a clear majority.
DeleteIt's a stretch to call current Labour either progressive or Centre-Left, though they're certainly not electorally friends of Reform.
ReplyDeleteDid Sarwar not say he was “open” to working with Reform?
DeleteEluned Morgan, if left to her own devices, would probably be reasonably progressive.
Delete