Scot Goes Pop puts Anas Sarwar ON THE SPOT

Well, sort of.  I had a little cameo last night at the Holyrood Sources podcast recording in Edinburgh where both John Swinney and Anas Sarwar were questioned at length - albeit separately, they didn't debate each other directly.  Audience members were invited to submit questions in advance, and I was lucky enough to have my question for Anas Sarwar selected.  I just read it out exactly as I had submitted it a few nights ago, and it was this - 

"The Scottish Government, especially under Humza Yousaf but also under Mr Swinney, has taken a principled stance against Israel's actions in Gaza.  That stance differs sharply from the UK Government and has given a voice to countless people throughout Scotland and the UK who feel that Keir Starmer and David Lammy do not speak for them on this issue.  Wouldn't something precious be lost if Mr Sarwar wins the election and the new Scottish Government thereafter just parrots the UK Government line on Israel and Gaza?  Would Mr Sarwar even accept that the Scottish Government should be speaking out on foreign affairs, or does he think small like so many other Scottish Labour politicians before him by insisting that devolved governments should 'get on with the day job' and not concern themselves with reserved matters at all?"

You can hear both the question and answer HERE at around 1:07:30.  In reality it didn't put Mr Sarwar on the spot to any great extent, because what I didn't anticipate was that in the seconds before I read the question out, he made an extremely strong statement that "Benjamin Netanyahu is out of control", which lent him greater credibility in answering my question by saying he would "continue" to speak out on foreign affairs.  Where he was on much weaker ground, though, was in arguing that I had unfairly characterised the UK Government's position, when in fact all I had actually said was that the Scottish Government's stance had differed sharply from the UK Government's - which is pretty much unarguable, given the contrast between Humza Yousaf's strong condemnation of Israel as First Minister and Keir Starmer's repeated insistence that "Israel has every right to defend herself".  If you listen to Mr Sarwar, you'd think the Starmer government has been fearless from day one in standing up to Israel - and that, I'm afraid, is the depiction of events in a parallel universe.  I also remain unconvinced that Mr Sarwar, in the unlikely event that he ever becomes First Minister, would be given the latitude by London Labour to use the type of language about Israel that he did last night.  If he can just about get away with it now, it's only because no-one thinks he is important and no-one is paying much attention to what he says.

Geoff Aberdein said at the start of the event that, barring miracles, one of the two men we'd be hearing from would be elected First Minister next year.  I think that gives a slightly misleading impression - it would be more accurate to say that, barring miracles, John Swinney will be re-elected First Minister next year.  To the extent that Anas Sarwar does still have a small percentage chance, it's probably comparable to the small chance of Reform being elected to lead the Scottish Government next year - although in fairness, it would have been very difficult to devise a three-way event incorporating Reform, because no-one seems to have a scooby who Reform's candidate for First Minister is going to be.  

Andy Maciver channeled his inner Stuart Campbell by spending much of the evening talking up the chances of an SNP-Labour coalition government.  His basic argument is that the current relationship between the SNP and Labour is analogous to the previous relationship between the CDU and SPD in Germany, and to the previous relationship between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in Ireland - ie. they agree on most policy areas apart from independence but can't imagine going into government with each other because of supposed historical baggage.  Mr Maciver points out that in both Germany and Ireland, the historical baggage was pretty easily dispensed with when grand coalitions were required to freeze out the Left Party and Sinn Féin respectively.  But the operative words are that there is broad agreement between the SNP and Labour except on independence - which is not exactly a trivial matter, and as far as I am aware there was no equivalent massive dividing line between the CDU and SPD, or between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.  My guess is that in Mr Maciver's case, the expectation of an SNP-Labour deal is coming from the centre-right perspective that the SNP's prioritising of independence is a bit of nonsense that can and will be set aside as part of a sort of 'maturing' process.  In reality, the SNP's support base is highly unlikely to allow that to ever happen.

Incidentally, there is at least one other extremely weighty point of division between the SNP and Labour which has nothing to do with independence, and which Mr Sarwar touched on briefly last night - namely new-build nuclear power.  Labour are in favour of it, and the SNP are viscerally opposed to it (quite rightly).

Mr Swinney did not explicitly rule out an SNP-Labour coalition, but Mr Sarwar did, saying it was going to be a parliament of minorities and that the only way he'd be going into power was as head of a Labour minority government.  The hosts instantly picked up on that and pointed out that it meant he was giving up on any chance of winning a Labour majority, but perhaps more interesting is that it also seems to exclude any possibility of a Labour-led unionist coalition government.  When Labour have been in power in Holyrood in the past, it's always been in coalition with the Lib Dems, so it seemed a bit odd to take that possibility off the table, given that any narrow path to power left open to Mr Sarwar is almost certain to involve the Lib Dems (and indeed the Tories) in some shape or form.

I think last night was the first time I've seen Professor John Curtice in the flesh, and the one thing that doesn't come across on TV is just how remarkably tall he is.  He has quite a commanding presence when he walks into a room.  As for Anas Sarwar, I saw him pressing the flesh with the people sitting close to me during a break in the recording, some of whom he seemed to know and others he didn't, and it's fair to say that he has an easy-going charm about him that I don't think you really see on TV when he is trying to look all slick and polished.

My off-peak return train ticket from Cumbernauld to Edinburgh for some reason specified that travel via Glasgow is not valid, which is a complete nonsense because there are times at night when the quickest way back is via Glasgow, and by that time obviously the trains are all off-peak anyway.  So I had to wait an extra hour for a train to Falkirk, but that gave me a chance to enjoy walking around Edinburgh only a few nights after the Summer Solstice in what I believe is known in Shetland as 'the simmer dim'.