We're getting closer and closer to the point where it'll have been conclusively proved that Liz Kendall's hammering of society's most vulnerable has backfired catastrophically on Labour. Four GB-wide polls have now been conducted since the Kendall speech, and three of them have shown a Labour slump. Of those, two show Labour at a new post-election low, and the other shows Labour at a joint post-election low. The fact that Labour are losing support to the Lib Dems and the Greens rather than to Reform is also consistent with the idea that the switchers are left-of-centre voters who are furious with Starmer's betrayal of Labour values.
GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov, 23rd-24th March 2025):
Labour 23% (-3)
Reform UK 22% (-2)
Conservatives 22% (-)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+2)
Greens 10% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
Conservatives 22% (-)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+2)
Greens 10% (+1)
SNP 3% (-)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
Scottish subsample: SNP 32%, Labour 15%, Liberal Democrats 14%, Reform UK 13%, Conservatives 11%, Greens 9%
This is an obvious contender for the most bizarre poll in British history, because even on 23% Labour retain a slight lead, which in most circumstances would be impossible. However, that's no comfort to them, because they're not going to benefit from the convenience of the Reform/Tory vote being split down the middle indefinitely. One way or another the right-wing vote will consolidate, meaning that if Labour don't recover from the low 20s, they'll face an unprecedented drubbing that will leave them wishing they had never replaced Jeremy Corbyn as leader.
Reform seem to have fallen back a few points since recent Scottish Survation Poll?
ReplyDeleteTheir core support aren't happy with the leadership trying to make the party more professional (trying to stop the members spouting pig ignorant, bigoted bile on social media). Perhaps a few have flounced off.
DeleteTo the ISP and NSP Lol.
Deletethis isnae a real politics blog - real politics is all about ukrainian trannies and poetry workshops in the gaza strip
ReplyDeleteI will take my attention elsewhere
"Poetry Workshops are Hamas"
DeleteSays the banner writer at Ibrox
DeleteThe Alba question: when will we find out who's the alligator and who's the python?
ReplyDeletehttps://x.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1904375185106411711
The answer to the Alba question is, stop talking about a party that barely exists
DeleteAlba who?
DeleteAny sensible person can see Labour aren’t targeting the vulnerable. It’s the benefit cheats they’re after. Most hard working people are saying this has been a long time coming!
ReplyDeleteIt’s clearly a sign of how truly desperate Nats have become, the way they’re spinning this. Nothing other than nationalist propaganda bullshit!
This post lets you know very clearly what KC is about. Remember that is who he represents.
DeleteAnonymous @9:41,
DeleteWhat the hell you on about?
What or who is kc??
Strange post!
Eat your cereal.
DeleteSo National Charities are part of some Nationalist propaganda campaign? You are a late contender for thicko of the month and considering the level of idiocy of the usual suspects on here, that is an achievement.
DeleteAnon@9:35am,
DeleteYou come across as a desperate straw clutching Nat, struggling to cope with the fact your “dream” has died.
OK Mr Murray.
DeleteSo you believe there is a conspiracy between major U K wide charities and the Nationalist movement in Scotland? Waoh. That ‘s a good one.
DeleteEncouraging if true.
DeleteSure - Dame Mone must be concerned allegedly. Still maybe your post is supposed to be ironic?
ReplyDeleteBaroness Mone.
DeleteBaroness Mone of Mayfair Kingsize
DeleteQuite striking poll numbers. To me it's a demonstration that, with all it's deep and wide flaws, ensuring SNP electoral success in '26 is the only sensible holding action against proto fascist populism and Starmerite political suicide.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, under it's present regime the SNP is a bit of a chocolate fireguard unless the internal struggle in the party can push it towards a realistic hybrid stategy for independence, social inclusion and active participant democracy. No use depending on unaccountable, bland, smart suited careerists to get us through the worst political/economic crisis since WWII.
Chocolate teapot and butter teacups, this lot. The next section 30 request will have so many adverbs they couldn’t possibly, no surely, they simply couldn’t, of course not, perish to think…
DeleteAnon 905 - away home to Bath, England
ReplyDeleteWhat makes you think that he's left Bath ? He likes it doon there, preferable to Scotland.
DeleteHerald - "MacAskill wins Alba leadership contest". Regan to join the ISP ?
ReplyDeleteMcEleny and Regan to join Reform???
ReplyDeleteHow is the Frankly Book Club going these days. Been to any early worships or do you call them readings.
DeleteThey can join the ISP (IfS's favourite party) or I heard that Peter A Bell is looking for recruits.
ReplyDelete67% voting for right wing parties + 16% for the Diet Tory Liberals. What a nasty state.
ReplyDeleteCeline Gottwald has been warning about this for years.
ReplyDelete