Scottish Parliament constituency ballot (Find Out Now / Herald, 15th-20th January 2025):
SNP 31% (-4)
Labour 19% (-)
Reform UK 13% (+2)
Conservatives 12% (-3)
Greens 10% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
Alba 2% (-)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 25% (-1)
Labour 15% (-2)
Greens 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 13% (+3)
Conservatives 13% (-1)
Reform UK 11% (-)
Alba 7% (+1)
Seats projection: SNP 51, Labour 16, Greens 15, Liberal Democrats 15, Conservatives 15, Reform UK 9, Alba 8
SNP + GREENS: 66 SEATS
ALL OTHER PARTIES: 63 SEATS
SNP + GREEN MAJORITY OF 3 SEATS
PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 74 SEATS
ANTI-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 55 SEATS
PRO-INDEPENDENCE MAJORITY OF 19 SEATS
The drop in the SNP's vote in such a favourable poll for pro-independence parties is a bit of an oddity, and on the constituency vote can be at least partly explained by the unusually high Green vote. As Michael points out in the comments section below, it may well be that the Greens will not, as in past Holyrood elections, stand in most constituency seats, so even if 10% of the electorate genuinely do plan to vote Green in the constituencies (rather doubtful in my view), a lot of that vote may end up going to the SNP anyway. OK, we know there's a bit of bad blood between the Greens and the SNP after what Humza Yousaf did last year, but I do still think Green supporters are more likely to break for the SNP than for unionist parties.
Alba's list vote share and seats projection should be taken with a very, very heavy dose of salt. Find Out Now seem to have settled in as one of two polling firms that regularly show Alba on an exaggerated share of the list vote, and as things stand they remain the only polling firm showing Alba on course for list seats. The projection from the most recent poll conducted by the other Alba-friendly firm (Norstat) showed the party on zero seats.
Because Alba are far more likely to end up with zero seats rather than with eight, it's both important and encouraging that the projection from the new poll shows that the SNP and Greens are set for a majority between them, without needing help from any other Yes parties.
The Tories ought to be deeply alarmed that they've been overtaken by Reform on the constituency ballot. This reflects the pattern seen in recent GB-wide polls, and we could be nearing a tipping point where the Tory vote suddenly collapses completely due to right-of-centre voters recognising that Reform UK seem to be emerging as the leading right-wing party in all three constituent nations of Great Britain.
Although the mainstream media bizarrely portrayed the 2021 Holyrood election as a good news outcome for Anas Sarwar and Labour, it was in fact the FIFTH successive Holyrood election in which Labour's number of seats had dropped. This poll suggests that will happen again for a SIXTH successive election, with Labour slumping from 22 seats to 16. A minor technical consolation for Sarwar is that he'd be leader of the largest single opposition party, overtaking the Tories - but in fact Labour would only be one seat ahead of the Greens, Lib Dems and Tories who would all be tied on 15 seats apiece.
Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:
SNP 31% (-3)
Labour 18% (-2)
Reform UK 17% (+2)
Conservatives 12% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+1)
Greens 7% (+1)
Seats projection: SNP 31, Labour 11, Liberal Democrats 6, Conservatives 5
(Note: I've taken the above seats projection direct from the Herald write-up, but there must be an error somewhere because the numbers should add up to 57, but don't.)
Reform's five-point advantage over the Tories for Westminster represents even more of a horror-story for the Tories than the Holyrood constituency ballot, and is arguably even more important.
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Two issues I rarely see the Scottish Press address with these polling figures:
ReplyDelete(1) Scottish Greens wont stand in most constituencies - so where does their 10% constituency vote share go? I'd guess more to the SNP than elsewhere.
(2) Will Reform stand in constituencies? They see themselves as 'replacing' the Tories - so maybe they will stand on the constituency and list, particularly if they have the cash? It seems unclear at the moment. If they do stand constituency candidates, that's a disaster for the Tories and probably bad for Labour too.
Separately (3) I note as an aside that Michelle Ballantyne (the only leader Reform 'Scotland' have had) being forced out is a sign that Reform is already full of infighting in response to being run from England as a Nigel Farage front. You can read her scathing resignation letter (only partly reported by media) here: https://www.facebook.com/groups/1744756149302634?multi_permalinks=2067495113695401&hoisted_section_header_type=recently_seen
Thoughts James?
Excellent poll.
ReplyDeleteHere’s hoping future polls from the likes of Survation and YouGov produce similar numbers.
In terms of the U.K. GE part of this poll, as noted above Greens aren’t at all likely to stand in more than a few seats. I agree with Michael above, surely most of those votes go to SNP. Which would make all the difference in many, many seats.
ReplyDeleteThe poll indicates dome-heid running a coalition government with Labour?
ReplyDeleteHow on earth does it indicate that? On these numbers, an SNP-Green deal would be far, far, *far* more likely.
DeleteGood poll.
ReplyDeleteI agree that a fair proportion of the Constit Green vote will probably go to SNP in reality, boosting their vote and seat count.
Irrespective, SNP is still, by a country mile, the dominant force in the Scottish Parliament and most popular Party in Scotland - and, for a Party now approaching its 18th consecutive year in power, absolutely remarkable.
The prospect of another Majority Pro Indy Govt/Parliament is also gratifying, with Sarwar and Labour left in the sad shadows yet again.
Not a word about independence from this devolutionist diddy imposter. Bring back the real David Francis. No caps or random dots ………means you are a phoney David.
DeleteFrancis silent on the fact that the SNP is on 25% of the vote on the List for Holyrood. Yes that’s right only 25% - how the mighty SNP has fallen and it’s all down to horrible creatures like David Francis. I mean even Alba are getting 8% on the List for Holyrood.
DeleteNo, they're not, you can't even read. They're on 7%.
DeleteSo even at a supposed ebb pro indy doing well.
DeleteSecond wind of indy could do it..
Scotland the cause.
ReplyDeleteLet's see her flourish
If the Holyrood voting system is supposed to give a reasonable approximation of proportional representation then how does a 45% vote share on the regional list for SNP/ Greens/ALBA combined give a pro-Independence majority of 19 seats - 74 to 55 seats?
ReplyDeleteTotal seats 129. 45% = 58 seats compared to the 74 quoted.
SNP 31% (-4), SNP 25% (-1) and SNP 31% (-3) is a bit of a worry though. I wonder if there were any previous questions that could cause that like "What do you think of Swinney completely messing up X"?
ReplyDeleteThe previous 3 polls were constit 35%, 35% and 37%; list 31%, 26% and 32%. Maybe a bit if a blip?
Anon at 1:07
ReplyDeleteWrong, it was me.
I don't always have to use '.....' and
'-', pal.
And already a few very typical Albaist responses to a very good poll for all us Yessers.
They REALLY cannot stop turning every single thing on here into an attack on SNP.
Pathetic wee scrotes.
"Albaist responses"
DeleteWTF? Are you a total moron, or do you just pretend to be one?
I just copy you.
DeleteAnyone who thinks the SNP going from 62 MSPs to 51 is a "very good poll" has more than a single screw loose. Same as the SNP having gone from 48 MPs to just 9 was a "good result for the SNP" last year. Or is a pretendy SNP member of the Mars branch.
DeleteThe poll is OK for Indy but.
"PRO-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 74 SEATS
DeleteANTI-INDEPENDENCE PARTIES: 55 SEATS"
Mate, that's a good poll.