So I discovered one thing last night - at least one person is keen enough on Ash Regan becoming Alba leader that they are willing to manipulate internet polls to astroturf momentum for her

Although self-selecting online polls are hopelessly unscientific, there's a case to be made for paying some slight heed to them in situations such as the Alba leadership election, because one thing we know for almost certain is that no polling companies will be conducting polls of Alba members.  I suppose straw polls could be taken at branch meetings to get a sense of who is winning, but the results would still not be reliable, because people who attend branch meetings are not necessarily representative of the wider membership.  (Indeed, that was one of the very points I repeatedly made at the Constitution Review Group before Mr McEleny got me removed from my elected position - ie. that all members should be democratically empowered, not just the minority who are able to turn up for meetings.  It predictably went down like a lead balloon, but I stand by that point absolutely.)

Curiously, the first Twitter poll that I saw of the leadership election was run by, of all people, Mike Small of Bella Caledonia.  It showed Ash Regan with a decent lead over Kenny MacAskill. However, I wondered if that might have been partly due to the four-way format, with Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh and Angus MacNeil included as candidates, even though they are unlikely to stand.  So I decided to see what would happen if I ran a head-to-head poll between Mr MacAskill and Ms Regan, and initially, as I suspected would happen, Mr MacAskill did better and built up a slight lead.  

But then I checked back half an hour later and suddenly 500 votes had appeared out of nowhere, and almost all of them were for Ms Regan, who had raced away into an almost 9-1 lead.  It was obvious one or more Regan supporters had manipulated the poll.  Someone suggested there may have been an innocent explanation, perhaps due to Regan supporters enthusiastically sharing the poll among their fellow travellers, but having thought about it, that just doesn't make any sense.  500 people is getting on for 10% of the entire Alba membership, and the idea that they're all reachable within 30 minutes is stretching credibility somewhat.  More likely, perhaps, is that somebody was able to use a large number of fake accounts to give the appearance of widespread support for Ms Regan.

So in a sense this is good news for those like me who are horrified by the thought of a Regan leadership installing Chris McEleny as Alba's éminence grise, because if my poll was manipulated by a Regan supporter, there's a fair chance the same thing happened to the Bella Caledonia poll, which would call into question Ms Regan's lead in that one.  My gut feeling remains that Kenny MacAskill is likely to be elected leader if he stands - with that 'if' being the key variable.

There's something slightly odd about this, to put it mildly. I checked half an hour ago and there were around 50 votes, with Kenny MacAskill slightly ahead. There are now over 500 votes with Ash Regan ahead by a 9-1 margin. It's supposed to be one vote per account, but... https://t.co/TEEKd7kqFD

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) January 6, 2025

From your own blog and analysis…

We are commenting in the shadow of a poll you’re conducting, which agrees with the point I’ve made.

While you question the validity of your own poll and anyone who dares suggest ‘not Kenny’

What else do you want? pic.twitter.com/9zFBoENNaW

— Graeme Spence (@trekkie101) January 7, 2025

Graeme, you can see for yourself the poll has been manipulated - a wildly unrealistic number of votes were cast within just half an hour, almost all of them for Regan. Some have even suggested you were the one who manipulated it, although I would never dream of being so cynical.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) January 7, 2025

I'd have to say that reading some of the replies to the poll was like stepping into Narnia.  Graeme Spence, Number One Super-Fan of the Regan / McEleny combo, is still pushing the line that Mr MacAskill's 1.5% of the vote in Alloa & Grangemouth is a sign that he is unpopular and out of touch with the electorate.  News-flash, Graeme: Kenny MacAskill took 1.5% of the vote because he was the Alba candidate, not because he was Kenny MacAskill.  His result was bang in line with all Alba candidates in Scotland, including Chris McEleny himself, who took just 1.8% of the vote in Inverclyde. It's likely that part of the reason Eva Comrie outpolled Mr MacAskill in Alloa & Grangemouth is precisely that she ran as an independent and wasn't weighed down by the baggage of the Alba brand.

Someone else claimed Ash Regan should be leader because she's an MSP and "polls show" she will hold her seat.  It's as if Chris McEleny saying something in an email is enough to make it real.  To reiterate, the true position is as follows: all polling companies with the sole exception of Find Out Now currently show Alba on course for zero seats, which would mean Ash Regan would lose her seat.  And even if Find Out Now are right and every other polling firm is wrong, there's still no guarantee she would hold on, because Alba would only be taking a list seat in three out of eight regions.

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