This is starting to look highly significant now. Hot on the heels of the Find Out Now poll that put Reform UK in the outright lead, we have an Opinium poll that puts Reform on 27% - the highest vote share the party has ever recorded in any poll conducted by any polling firm. I'm not even just talking about a new high watermark since the rebrand from Brexit Party to Reform in early 2021, because it even exceeds the Brexit Party's record high of 26% from their brief purple patch in mid-2019.
GB-wide voting intentions (Opinium, 22nd-24th January 2025):
Labour 28% (-1)
Reform UK 27% (+3)
Conservatives 21% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+1)
Greens 8% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (-)
An issue we used to talk about during the indyref was whether opinion polls have a snowball effect - ie. whether members of the public looked at polling trends and were influenced into changing their own voting intentions. This might be one of the situations where it does happen, because these good polls for Reform are getting an unusual amount of media coverage, and the most likely impact will be to put the thought in people's minds that the Tories could be a busted flush, and that right-wing anti-Labour voters should move across to Reform UK as the next big thing. If so, there could be some dramatic movement in the weeks to come. The process could potentially be accelerated if any Tory MPs (Suella Braverman?) defect to Reform.
Elsewhere in the Opinium poll, Keir Starmer's net approval ratings have dropped to yet another new all-time low. They now stand at a horrific -35.
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The Scot Goes Pop Fundraiser for 2025 was launched a few hours ago, and so far the progress has been relatively slow. £54 has been raised towards the target of £6800 (0.8% funded). But am I downhearted? No, by Jiminy! The fundraiser post will remain pinned to the top of the blog over the coming days, so remember to scroll down to check for any newer posts. And if you'd like to help Scot Goes Pop continue for another year, card donations are welcome HERE. Donations can also be made direct via Paypal (eliminating all processing fees depending on the option you select from the menu). My Paypal email address is: jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
According to The Independent, Trump’s team is reportedly pushing for "regime change" in the UK. They "hate" Keir Starmer, who has now replaced Justin Trudeau as MAGA's top international hate figure. Interestingly, Nigel Farage was not invited to the Capitol Rotunda during Trump’s inauguration, but Boris Johnson was.
ReplyDeleteIt couldn’t really happen, could it? We thought Trump was finished
My question would be: what does "regime change" mean in this case? If they just mean "try to get Starmer replaced in the 2029 election", well OK, but a) that will probably happen anyway, and b) Trump will no longer be president by then. If they mean "try to bring Starmer down in the near future", it might be possible but he'd be replaced by another Labour PM. If they want to get rid of Labour altogether this year or next, that's practically impossible. The only way of doing it would be to get dozens and dozens of Labour MPs to defect to other parties. It would be a once-in-a-century event, and I'm not sure MAGA types would have the first idea of Labour MP psychology and how to get them to jump ship.
DeleteThat’s a fair point—Starmer may hope to simply ride out a potential second Trump presidency, but with MAGA and Trump, it’s clear that conventions don’t apply. They operate outside the usual rules, and their lack of understanding of UK politics could lead to reckless interference.
ReplyDeleteThe prospect of Elon Musk and other social media platforms being weaponized to spread misinformation and incite social disorder in the UK is a real concern. Coupled with America’s ability to use economic levers to destabilize Britain’s economy, it’s evident that the UK is in no position to resist such pressure on its own
One of the problems the Independence movement has, and the SNP have, is the knee jerk reaction to Reform UK, and anyone who supports it, calling them "far right", instead of making the effort to understand WHY people might indicate an intention to vote for them right now. It turns out that much of the use of that term of criticism "far right", is really "you have a different opinion to me".
ReplyDeleteThere's an occasional poster here on Reform UK that's worth reading. I'd say we don't have to agree, but if we want to campaign for Independence, or the SNP - or both - we should at least make the effort of seeing things from the eyes of others.
And on that sort of subject, there's a similar knee-jerk reaction to Wetherspoons, just because he supported Brexit. Who cares?
For a lot of people, specially older people, it's a chance to get out, sit down and maybe socialise a bit, over a cup of coffee for £1.50 and as many free refills as you can drink without buzzing all the way home. And, for many, it's the only place we can afford to eat out for a treat, with a soft drink or alcoholic one included. From an increasing thoughtful Herald columnist:
https://archive.is/AzMXj
Perhaps the key would be for campaigners to understand WHY people might want to eat and drink in Spoons rather than pay double as the well off might urge. It's a meal out once a month maybe and the staff are friendly and happy. We're not all rich, many of us are struggling. And that's at least partly behind the rise of Reform UK - even for the better-off.
The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. It's the same the whole world over. Ain't it all a crying shame?
The same people who were suckered into voting for Brexit are being drawn to reform in the same way by the same people with the same motives. Your final paragraph got it right. And I agree that we need to
Deleteexplain to people why reform will literally screw and further impoverish them. But how do we do it? The same people promoting and funding Reform also own the media, including the news output of the BBC. We are in a bubble. We can get a message over in here, but outside? And Trump’s comment today about cleaning out Gaza is ominous. We could be at the beginning of dreadful conflict. I fear for the near future. Glad I’m above the conscription age limit. Trump Putin and Farage. A very possible scenario.
Yes. I think it's fertile ground for the Indy movement. Instead of going like "oh, OK" and walking away when someone says they're voting Reform, more like "Ah - fed up with the UK as it is. So am I, which is why I support Independence. Now that's real change!".
DeleteHere's an interesting addition to this discussion.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/reform-uk-has-picked-up-7-seats-from-184-by-elections-since-july-388891/
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/reform-uk-has-picked-up-7-seats-from-184-by-elections-since-july-388891/
ReplyDeleteAnon 1.06 Amerika (sic) is finished.
ReplyDelete