Richard Tice's statement undoubtedly makes a Labour minority government in Scotland more likely - but at what cost to Labour?

Thanks to Yesindyref2 on the previous thread for pointing me in the direction of an article suggesting Reform UK's Richard Tice has said his party would vote for Anas Sarwar to be First Minister after the next Holyrood election.  Assuming he's been reported accurately, and assuming he wasn't going rogue by saying the first thing that popped into his head, this is a rare example of a comment by an opposition politician that really does change things, because it makes it significantly more likely that Sarwar will become First Minister.  Although most polls recently have shown the SNP on course to remain the largest single party, they have also mostly suggested that Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and Reform UK would have a majority between them, so if Reform UK are on board for Sarwar, the only way that John Swinney (or Kate Forbes, or whoever) would be able to win the First Minister vote would be if the Tories and/or the Lib Dems abstained, or if Sarwar didn't stand at all.

But nominally becoming First Minister is only half the battle for Sarwar - other than adding a bit of glitter to his CV, it won't really count for much if he's then brought down within a few weeks or months.  What Tice has said is really quite odd, because it reduces Reform's leverage in any post-election negotiations - it's effectively saying they will install a Labour government without any concessions from Labour at all, presumably as a virtue-signalling demonstration of British Nationalist ultra-purity.  But the snag is that they're bound to hold Sarwar hostage after installing him on specific policy matters, so either Sarwar would gain a damaging reputation for being Farage's Puppet, or he would stand his ground and lose vote after vote, perhaps leaving his government looking non-viable, with the only remaining choices being to hand over to the SNP (who might have the strongest case if they're the largest single party) or to accept the inevitability of a re-run of the election.

And as Yesindyref2 pointed out, Tice's statement may ultimately be a problem for Reform UK too, because if it becomes widely understood that "a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour", some of the voters who have switched direct from SNP to Reform may start to have second thoughts.  That could increase the chances of the pro-independence majority at Holyrood being rescued in 2026 against all the odds.