* American moral leadership of the 'free world' will at the very least be on pause for the next four years, meaning it will no longer be so easy for European governments to reflexively support whatever nasty stuff the US wants. Think about the repugnant coordinated withdrawal of funds from UNRWA a few months ago to distract from the ICJ's ruling against Israel. If the UK were to participate in a stunt like that again, Starmer would pay a heavy political price for doing Trump's bidding.
* The Democrats are not going to be rewarded for facilitating genocide. OK, there's going to be a pro-genocide president anyway, so in a sense it makes no difference, but there would have been something almost despair-inducing about progressives having been successfully browbeaten into producing an election-winning majority on the basis of "shut up and understand why the mass killing of Palestinians is necessary", as per Bill Clinton's disgraceful speech.
* Although one of my biggest concerns is about the American nuclear arsenal being under the control of an unstable narcissist, there is a counter-argument, which is that Trump's win will probably bring the Ukraine war to an end as a stalemate, and confrontation with Russia will actually become less likely as a result.
* For us non-fans of NATO, it's hard to see how this is anything other than a setback for that alliance. NATO will probably not break up but it could well go into a sort of deep freeze.
* The left in other countries will not be able to use Kamala Harris as a template, which would have been a thoroughly dismal prospect.
* Rory Stewart is the shame of "the Middleland" this morning.
I for one did see this coming, and have said so here several times the last few weeks,
ReplyDeleteBut even I didn't expect him to win the popular vote! Wow!
Good luck to you, America. Something tells me you'll need it.
I think that most of us who are politically aware in Scotland saw it coming from a mile off but were hoping that our perception was wrong. Unfortunately it wasn't. I remember feeling gutted on the morning that Trump defeated Hilary Clinton and wondered how the American voters could go down that route. Since then I have come to accept the fact that although Scots speak the same language as most Americans we do not speak the same 'politics'. Incidentally, after the Brexit referendum I hold the same view about voters in England.
DeleteHas Mexico paid for the wall yet?
DeleteAgreed on the potential upsides you've listed, James. Ending the utterly pointless slaughter of Ukrainian and Russian men over land that's 2 years beyond military dispute is the top of my list. I’m not keen at all on either Putin or Zelensky, but I feel for all the families in both their nations grieving lost sons.
ReplyDeleteThen Putin will move onto other countries. Aye more families will suffer.
DeleteAnd Putin then moves on to invade the rest of Georgia, Moldova via Transnistria and the truly scary prospect of annexation of Estonia Latvia and Lithuania. That's a lit of families to feel for.
DeleteAs for the effects on Scotland: was there a bump for independence support in the immediate wake of Trump's first election?
ReplyDelete(I know 2016-2017 was dominated by Brexit, so it may well be impossible to filter out one effect from the other.)
I ask because my gut reaction to Trump back in power is mixed. The ever more dead and buried the Cameron-EU-Obama status quo of 2014 lies in the rear view mirror, the weaker the liberal argument for the union which won them that vote. But with Trump about, there's always the fear of chaos on the rise as well, which can play into the "now is not the time" conservatism of the feart.
In any case, given the total obsession the London media and the whole English political class have with US presidents, we can expect there will be an effect, and it will last.
I think there was a poll saying that only 18% of people here wanted a Trump victory
ReplyDeleteThat means that 82% are gonna be pissed off the next 4 years
And when Trump starts bashing the independence cause some people from that 82% might vote with independence in spite of him
I have to say the USA is a frightening place. The yoo ess Ay arm thumping individuals who believe they own the world ( China may have a different opinion) will wake up from the stupor to find immigration is still the issue, billionaires need more money to give to the poor! Naw they just want more and the anti women anti everything brigade of hate will wonder why it
ReplyDeletehasn’t worked. They will then blame women, gays , black community, immigrants and anyone not like them all over again. Hail to the chief, In God or some version they trust … yoo ess Ay! yoo ess Ay!
I await the ‘rse, licking Labour Party saying what a great day it is.
Clutching at straws in a hurricane here, but imposing tariffs on UK exports to the US would halve our future growth according to this article: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/nov/06/donald-trump-tariffs-would-cut-uk-growth-by-half-and-push-up-inflation-thinktank-warns
ReplyDeleteGuess whose plan for government is heavily relying on future growth? That’s right, Labour. So maybe a few years down the line we’ll be seeing a choice between a failed Labour government, the Kemi/Nigel far right alternative or an independent Scotland. Being very optimistic it might just be chilling enough to get the extra numbers we need.
Sadly I’d say it’s unrealistic.
DeleteI didn't want to say it before but Harris had no chance. She's a woman and was the VP of a senile old man. What could possibly go wrong?
ReplyDeleteVery poor choice of candidate.