This is a curate's egg poll, so let's start with the good part. Support for independence has remained impressively untouched by the crisis within the SNP, and indeed has increased slightly since the last Norstat poll, although that may just be margin-of-error noise.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Norstat / Sunday Times, 30th April - 3rd May 2024)
Yes 48% (+1)
No 52% (-1)
However, as you've probably heard by now, the poll is a lot less good for the SNP themselves. This is one of the rare occasions when the exact dates a poll was conducted are by far the most important part of the equation. The fieldwork started on 30th April, which was the day after Yousaf announced his resignation, and finished on 3rd May, which was the day after John Swinney emerged as the heir presumptive.
Interviews for online polls are not evenly spread out through the fieldwork dates - usually they're heavily concentrated in the first 24 hours. If that's what happened here, it's safe to conclude that the SNP did not benefit from a wave of relief when Yousaf departed the stage, but it remains an entirely open question whether there's been a rebound as a result of the crisis receding due to a new leader having more or less emerged. In any case, given the choreographed crowing about the poll on Twitter among the usual Labour suspects, I was bracing myself for a Truss-like meltdown that would look unrecoverable regardless of any honeymoon effect for the new leader. That isn't the case at all - the boost for Labour is relatively modest and still leaves them behind the SNP on the Holyrood constituency vote. And while a five-point Labour lead for Westminster is bad news, at least it's not twenty or thirty points, and it's thus still just about possible that the new leadership may be able to turn things around in time for the general election.
Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:
Labour 34% (+2)
SNP 29% (-3)
Conservatives 16% (-)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)
Seats projection (with changes from 2019 election): Labour 28 (+27), SNP 15 (-33), Conservatives 9 (+3), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)
It shouldn't go without note here that one of the main effects of the Labour lead is that the Tories are projected to entirely needlessly gain several seats from the SNP despite their vote share having collapsed since 2019. Whatever John Swinney's shortcomings, I think it's probably fair to say he won't be a turn-off for rural voters in quite the way that Yousaf was, so he may be better placed to reverse the problem in SNP-Tory battleground seats.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 34% (-1)
Labour 33% (+3)
Conservatives 14% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 9% (-1)
Greens 5% (+2)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
Labour 28% (+3)
SNP 27% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-2)
Greens 9% (-)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-2)
Reform UK 6% (+2)
Alba 4% (+1)
Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): Labour 40 (+18), SNP 38 (-26), Conservatives 24 (-7), Greens 10 (+2), Liberal Democrats 9 (+5), Reform UK 8 (+8)
My fellow Alba members would be unwise to get too excited about the party's boost on the list, for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the fieldwork took place before the strategically dangerous decision to vote to bring down the SNP government, so it's anyone's guess whether that will have alienated independence supporters and led to a decrease in the Alba vote. And secondly, as far as I know Norstat have continued to use the same methodology as Panelbase, who were by some distance the most favourable pollster for Alba, often showing them at 5% or 6% in the run-up to the 2021 election even though they ended up with only 2% on polling day. That overestimation is unlikely to have been corrected for, because Panelbase never introduced weighting by recalled Holyrood vote.
* * *
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I am sure John Swinney will make a great leader. This poll has taken place at an odd time before he is officially installed. It will be more informative to wait a few weeks before considering polls about the SNP.
ReplyDeleteJohn Swinney is a unifier and a straight talker. He is very highly regarded by the voters in his own constituency. It'd an exciting time for the SNP.
DeleteYes he’s a unifier who backstabbed Humza, slandered KF for religious beliefs in 2023 contest, repeatedly lied to parliament and withheld evidence in the Salmond inquiry to protect Nicola (who the inquiry found guilty btw despite John’s best efforts), chucked Margo McDonald out the SNP, and can’t say what a woman is.
Delete10.01 this is too negative about Swinney. Everyone who meets him states that he is a nice straightforward person and has good values. He is a Christian and a member of the Church of Scotland.
DeleteDo not worry. There is a demographic inevitability that this will happen in due course.
ReplyDeleteThe best polling firm, Ipsos, already does that
ReplyDeleteAnon at 9:30,
ReplyDelete“ demographic inevitability “
Is this some new phenomenon that hasn’t been in play since 2014?
Very strong performance by John Swinney with a quite hostile English interviewer on Sky news. This was one of his first big interviews and he really reassured me that the SNP have chosen an excellent leader who can navigate the waters to come. He was calm and assured. His message about unifying the SNP was very well expressed.
ReplyDeleteIt's an exciting time to be an SNP member.
He set out a very good set of arguments about SNP strategy which were excellent. His integrity and analysis shone through.
He said we have to have confidence in SNP government and more confidence in the arguments for independence. And less time spent on mechanisms for referendums and such points.
Excellent interview and excellent leader.
A very empowering moment for SNP supporters members and activists.
Less time spent on “mechanisms” you say? So all the more time then for gazing in appreciation at our carrots?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
Deletethe 9:41 guy is so hardwired to the SNP moon, he thinks that installing a party leader without a member's vote is empowerment. Far out. More comedy please!
DeleteI'm all for a call for unity but this is delirious.
DeleteAbhainn
I find the notion that Reform would have 8 seats questionable. It is an odd poll, although undoubtedly Labour and the SNP are in a tussle. I guess we will need to see what transpires in the coming weeks. Labour are promising little and will likely under deliver on that. That may not be apparent to all the voters by the Westminster election but it may well be by Holyrood 2026.
ReplyDeleteTwo word reply to this point: John Swinney.
DeleteThe contest between the Tories and the SNP for the deepest meltdown will be surely one to watch.
DeleteThursdays results in England were truly devastating for the Tories. So there’s no excuses: the SNP absolutely has to snatch the Tories seats off them. The bar is set, all the way down at the Tories historical 1997 low. But can Swinney make it?
Yes I think Swinney can make it.
DeleteHopefully Graeme McCormick gets enough nominations before noon tomorrow. A leadership contest can only be good.
ReplyDeleteThe committee has to accept the nomination. It's not merely about the numbers.
DeleteI agree, hopefully Mr McCormick decides to stand.
DeleteI don’t see the point. Just depletes the election funds and John Swinney will still be FM.
DeleteAnonymous at 9.37: It's been in play for the decades since 'the problem of the ageing population' became a common journalistic theme; and it's a rather ugly way of encouraging the independence movement, the ugliness hardly disguised by the euphemism 'demographic change' in place of 'the elderly will die off'.
ReplyDeleteIt's very sad that people die and pretending that we're immortal might make you feel nice but it doesn't seem like the most accurate way to make political prognoses
DeleteReform winning 8 seats is totally understandable, retired white English folk everywhere, none 5 years ago now that is all I ever speak to, get used to it, they are here for the better NHS but will vote on English issues
ReplyDeleteWales knows all about them. How on earth can Ynys Môn be Tory without the “new Welsh” who take their old identity firmly with them.
DeleteSame here in Moray - with help from RAF/ Brit army too.
DeleteThis is a massive issue in Wales. There are large areas of the country that now have majorities of English-born people. I don't in the slightest blame them from coming to live here, but I wish they would not bring their political outlook with them. This is an issue that will increasingly affect Scotland, and don't think for a moment that Westminster is unaware and will do everything to encourage any demographic change that will cement the Union.
DeleteIt is an increasing issue in Dumfries and Galloway.
Delete...and here in Sutherland. I'm the only Scot now in my area. Nice people but all NO voters - "don't want to lose you" they say. My two friends always slip up and call us a region from time to time - they honestly don't see us as a country
Delete2014 was our big chance.
DeleteI believe it's the same in Caithness
DeleteRemember that these people may vote SNP because they see that it is a roadmap to a better future.
DeletePossibly, and it is positive thinking but none of them that I know will vote YES they really do see us as a Yorkshire with tartan. What we might have to do is make independence attractive to them, but our own factionalism makes that difficult.
Delete2011 Census figures showed parts of Orkney, Borders and Argyll & Bute near or at the tipping point. Buy up places in Scotland, get all the benefits and keeping on voting Tory. No I don't get it either.
Deletesame in Angus, new housing schemes in every town.
DeleteKP, it’s true what you say, the old, who were most likely to not favour independence, die off.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the young grow older, and their views likely change.
So In reality, nothing changes. A lot of people don’t grasp that, and mistakenly think time is the friend of the independence movement.
However, the young grow older, and their views likely change.
DeleteThere's evidence that this cliche no longer applies, due in part to the bleak economic outlook for young people
As one who shakes his head at the “just wait a generation for Indy” argument—what a demotivating tactic!—I must still disagree with the idea that people drift from Yes to No with age. That’s just not what I experience at all. Instead, it’s the newcomers who are No, while their children gradually find their own Scottish identity and turn Yes.
ReplyDeleteWith Labour claiming 'victory' by English Tory voters just not turning up or voting Reform, and pundits now putting forward the possibility of a hung Parliament at the coming GE, will Tory voters in Scotland consider voting SNP (they being irrelevant in Westminster, Greens and Alba being irrelevant in Scotland for Tory purposes) to keep the number of returned Scottish Labour MPs at a minimum to maybe leverage a slim majority over Labour in WM? So ta-ta too to Ian Murray who only kept his seat with the votes of tactical Tories?
ReplyDeleteVery good interview on BBC1 Sunday show. Swinney impresses me.
ReplyDeleteMe too. The SNP have turned a new page. Swinney is the man to turn the polling around for sure. He has the experience and he is quite an impressive performer in tough interviews.
DeleteIf you can stay awake
DeleteStay off the booze.
DeleteThe SNP plan to make Scotland “Tory free” at the GE is going well.
ReplyDeleteThis will not be through any lack of effort on the SNP's part. SNP has hard-working activists, has a large mandate, and a well-thought-through political analysis.
DeleteThe SNP have been an absolute disgrace in recent years. It’s clearly time for change, the country have had more than enough of these incompetent charlatans.
DeleteThe GE and Holyrood election can’t come quick enough. Been a long time coming.
The SNP have turned a new page by electing Swinney. You should not prejudge him. The SNP are confident that he will be able to bring new supporters to the party.
Delete1 "You should not prejudge Swinney"
Delete2 'He will bring new supporters to the party"
Is 2 not prejudging him then?🤔
The SNP will lose the GE badly. Not because Scots are running to Labour. Simply because half SNP voters won't turn out. That's due to lack of motivation or purpose. The SNP majorities have achieved the square route of Hee Haw.
ReplyDeleteI agree, the SNP will get what they so truly deserve.
DeleteWhat does Scotland deserve? Red tories/ Brexit/ austerity. You don’t care about this country. SNP -put Independence on ballot paper and folk will turn up.
DeleteThe “Red Tories” as you put it will be better than the wretched SNP, that’s for sure.
DeleteThe SNP are striking out a new path under Swinney. I think he could well be very popular with voters.
DeleteEvery single thing Starmer said he stood for has been ditched. He stands only for returning Labour to power and little else. He will ultimately be a bitter disappointment or no great surprise depending on one's preelection outlook. I think he will win because the Tories have made themselves unelectable.not because he offers a better future. Sarwar simply nods in agreement not daring to rock the boat.
DeleteRed tories, pro Brexit, pro nuclear weapons, pro nuclear plants, anti Waspi women, anti Palestinian, pro privatisation, no transfer of powers outside London, no removal of anti Trades union laws and the rest. Anti Scots Parliament
DeleteThis poll has Labour winning Aberdeen Central and Glasgow Kelvin. I just can't see that since they came third in both last time and the SNP majorities in both of these seats is so large and the polling shows the parties pretty much neck and neck. Applying uniform swings like this to seat numbers makes no sense.
ReplyDeleteAfter Swinney's leadership beds in we need a fresh poll and reassess.
DeleteThis tired old theory that a fresh young generation will emerge who's sole passion is for an independent Scotland is of course garbage, as any parent can tell you.
ReplyDeleteYoung people develop their own ideas and movements utterly divorced from those held by generations above them. Whether we like it or not the Yes movement represents just another facet of the establishment to young people. A somewhat ambivalent desire for independence is only held as long as it is linked with firmly held beliefs on progressive politics.
If the SNP loses it's majority and shifts to the right the Greens will probably form a loose alliance of progressive politics with labour and indy will obviously be dropped by the Greens. That's where you'll find a lot of young voters going too.
And what makes you think they’ll be environmentalists or woke? That’ll all be auld folks’ tosh someday too.
DeleteIsn’t labour pro nuclear weapons and pro nuclear? An alliance with the Greens? Don’t think so. The English Green Party keeps as far away from labour as they can.
ReplyDeleteSNP culture wars are being held up as a cautionary tale for other administrations to avoid, eg see David Morrow’s soapbox piece “The Yousaf Parable – lessons from the SNP in government for Stormont’s liberals”; https://www.sluggerotoole.com/2024/05/03/the-yousaf-parable-lessons-from-the-snp-in-government-for-stormonts-liberals/
ReplyDeleteSince I agree with him, no commentary from me, jus some self-explanatory quotes:
“ In Scotland, the SNP led by Sturgeon and then Yousaf (the continuity candidate in the 2023 leadership contest) have gone all guns blazing into the culture wars. Much of their recent time in office has been focused on transgender services for young people and hate crime legislation.
This has been an error. By letting the Green Party tail (vote share at election < 10%) wag the SNP dog, the SNP in government has come to look out of touch with the primary concerns of the majority of Scottish voters, while finding itself promoting legislation on social issues increasingly at odds with wider public opinion.”
And
“ The SNP approach is a political cul-de-sac, and the speed at which they crumbled from untouchable pre-eminence is an important cautionary tale.”
Hope the new leadership tacks strongly away from all this tosh.
Brian
Swinney has this issue in hand.
DeleteThe rise and fall of the Scottish National Party. A tale of two parts: one pre- and one post-referendum.
DeleteThe English don't want to stay in Scotland.
ReplyDeleteUnless England becomes a total disaster that people can't find jobs, there won't be any massive migration to Scotland.
Just some retired people, but mainly in the three border constituencies
Aye right, KC. Have you ever been north of Stirling? You’ll find as many of them in the highlands as the animals the posher among them come “all this way” to shoot.
DeleteVisit Moray and find out the truth.
DeleteOf course they don't want to come tae Scotland ; they only thole us because they can sell their hooses doon sooth , pay aff the mortgage and hae a muckle sum o money tae live aff up here. Meantime oor hoose prices are driven up and pressure on health services etc. come under strain.
ReplyDeleteAnd why are the hoose prices higher doon sooth ? Years of Tory and Labour policies encouraging them to rise along wi the subverting o Scots resources tae favour the sooth o England.
It's a sair fecht!
Sorry I don't understand some of those words because I'm originally from the European Union, but I fully support the SNP and Independence
DeleteA sare fecht is a “sore fight.” One you can’t win, and everyone’s cheering on the playground bully twice your size, pounding his fists together ready to belt you, as the teachers look on with a smirk.
DeleteIt’s also on the Lesley Riddoch Podcast bingo card along with “fah kens”, “stone the crows”, “district heating”, “land reform” and “huts.”
Greens getting 2 more seats would almost certainly be at the expense of the SNP, as wouls 2 or 3 of their other seats. Th SNP need the list vote to be almost as much as the constituency vote more than even in 2011.
ReplyDeleteAnyways, Alba's demands for VONC - https://archive.is/S15of
Alba had a real chance here and blew it big time by asking for far far too much. I'd have said get lost if I was Yousaf or the SNP - being held to ransom in such a massive way would be a price not worth paying - even worse than the iniquitous BHA.
SNP were right to distance themselves from Alba. Why rehabilitate Alex Salmond?
DeleteSalmond doesn't need rehabilitated, he hasn't been convicted of anything.
DeleteDon’t have to be convicted of anything to be condemned. Behaviours as FM at Bute House not acceptable.
DeleteNot acceptable to you apparently but evidently acceptable to the jury who actually heard the 'evidence' against him and didn't form an opinion based on their own prejudices and what they read in the unionist media.
DeleteFrom the National:
ReplyDelete(Swinney): “I think the SNP has got a chance to start rebuilding from the difficult period that we have had, under my leadership, and bluntly, I’d just like to get on with that as quickly as I possible can do, because every day that we spend in an internal contest, which I think we all probably know the outcome of, we delay the possibility for the SNP to start its rebuilding.”
THAT is exactly the presumptuous sense of self-entitlement that puts off the general public, the SNP voters and even SNP members. No wonder the SNP vote in polls is still dropping.
What on earth is Swinney thinking? Has he learnt no lessons at all?
There is nothing wrong with what he says. It's common sense.
DeleteIt's NOT for him to say it.
DeleteI'm old enough to remember the first incarnation of Swinney as party leader. He was so boring and insipid, he almost dragged the SNP into the abyss and it took the much-vilified Alex Salmond to restore it to some level of electability. The same thing will happen again under his leadership.
DeleteThe Swinney loyalists are out in force today. Good to see them with some passion again, as their silence in Humza’s final days was eerie. Settling into the rôle as he was!
DeleteI’d like Swinney to tear off his blazer and reveal himself to be the vanguard of independence, too. Do I expect a miracle, or a turnaround, from him? No, I do not. But I’m enjoying the watch.
John has grown as a politician since the last time he was leader.
DeleteJohn Swinneys leadership turns a new and more unified page for the SNP.
DeleteKeep on cranking, settling into the rôle man!
DeleteIt's NOT for him to say it.
DeleteIt's not for him to say something true, that everyone knows to be true? Seems a daft rule
The SNP bot, weirdly, seems to believe that Swinney as leader, again, is the second coming of the Messiah, and he is armed with a magic wand. Personally, I think he is even less appealing than Humza Yusaf, hearing him speak inspires me to change the channel, his return is a reflection of how talentless the SNP have become, and I don't have a clue what he stands for apart from 'unity' in some boring political party.
DeleteThere's only ever been one person in history who could get away with saying: "I am the greatest".
DeleteSalmond has hardly set the world on fire with ALBA. Don’t think it is going anywhere fast. I suspect in 5 years it may have gone already.
ReplyDeleteI know you're not a fan of Robin McAlpine Yesindyref2 but I understand where his demoralised outlook is coming from, however not so Honest John, he thinks the disunity in the SNP comes from the last leadership contest. Well, either he's an idiot or he's not that honest. Also, he has to be aware that the challenge he faces is not from Mr. McCormick but from convincing the population at large to vote for the so called party of independence. He should be asking himself "why are we losing our proportion of the vote to other parties?" If he thinks that this stitch up along with more of the same guffy policies is going to attract votes good luck to him. All of those people promoting the SNP on here and elsewhere need to ask that question. For if you can't get independence supporters to vote for you, how are you going to get even more to vote for you? Obviously some of us would like to see a move towards independence but failing that there is nothing attractive in this party's offerings - we've had ten years of crap, don't need another one.
ReplyDeleteI mostly agree with McAlpine but I do find his pessimism OTT at times. Sure, as a lobbyist he has the first hand experience and the contacts to know what’s going on. I don’t doubt his judgement on the corporate capture of the SNP. But I do wish he’d focus his energies a bit more on the constructive side of criticism, given his audience. When everyone expects you to be whining, no one much listens when you do.
DeleteHere, here. This site seems to have turned into another Wee Ginger Dug retirement home for deluded SNP cultists recently. No wonder IFS et al seem to have abandoned it.
DeleteCultists? My, the hand of friendship, not. Still where does Albanist go from here?
DeleteAs usual, I'm not an SNP drone therefore I'm either a unionist or an Alba supporter. I'm neither, just a scunnered former SNP voter of 40 years standing. Can you say the same?
DeleteTo anon at 6:08 PM Answer yes
DeleteDid that guy obtain the nominations to run for leadership?
ReplyDeleteApparently he did but there's now some procedural wrangle about whether that automatically qualifies him to stand. I think they're thumbing through the rule book to find a reason to stop him lest Swinney has to actually produce a plan for the future.
DeleteAll you folk on here who support Scottish independence just stop the infighting arguing about who you think should be leader , will be leader , arguing about SNP and ALBA bla blabla its time for all Scottish independence supporters to vote for SNP its the only party with a chance of getting us independence , dislike the leader dislike the MPs dislike this that and the next thing but stick to the one crucial policy Scottish independence and vote for the only party that has a chance of getting it.
ReplyDeleteInternecine bickering has always been a mainstay of politics. So much more fun than actually getting anything done. Labour do it, the Tories do it, the Yes movement do it and the Lib Dems probably do it (if anyone was interested enough to check). There was a glorious period of unity 10 years ago that rattled the establishment. Splitters, disgruntleds and of course the plain dishonest who pretend to care but want to see independence fail. The latter are a given. Politics is dirty, very dirty but the former is our own doing.
DeleteThe SNP doesn't own my vote. It has to earn it and it hasn't done so. Just look at all your fellow party loyalists on here advocating that the party prevent any challenge to Swinney's coronation as the next Messiah to lead us to the Promised Land. Democracy? Don't make me laugh!
DeleteIt hasn't earned mine either. I'm not interested in the SNP. Iminterested in independence and without the SNP, that's fudged.
DeleteAnd with the SNP it's fucked.
DeleteI agree with you about bickering but that's all. Scottish independence? Vote SNP? After ten years? If the SNP are "the only party that has a chance of getting (Scottish independence)..." then we'll never get it. But I'm an optimist I think we can get it with the support of the Scottish people AND not relying on a bunch of lazy out of touch bums in suits. We'll find a way, one that doesn't rely on the SNP, so could you stop trying to blackmail us please? We're getting sick of it.
DeleteYou need a hundred paid up members and also the support of I think 20 branches. Maybe get the 100 but not sure about the branches. Folk I talk too wish to move on. The party conference will cover policy.
ReplyDeleteHow’s it a nonsense?
DeleteSturgeon was crying “democratic outrage” when we got a new Tory leader and PM without a GE. No cries of outrage from Nats now.
Nobody does hypocrisy like the SNP.
I really don't see any practical benefit in holding a pointless election. if a serious contender had suddenly thrown their hat in the ring then OK. However, if it must be then let's do it and let's do it quickly. If Baron Binhead wants to join up and get some nominations perhaps we could consider him at the same time.
DeleteYou made a great speech at conference. Everybody can agree
DeleteIf this individual does get approved, Swinney should not debate him or engage and his membership should be suspended ASAP.
DeleteAgree. Thr guy Graeme is not a credible leader.
DeleteDo you guys ever listen to yourselves? Don't debate him! Suspend him! Is this the SNP or some new Stalinist party I wasn't told about? What are you all so scared of?
DeleteAye suspending him is beyond the pale. It will be a waste of a month but the rules are the rules. If he qualifies and insists on proceeding then a wasted month it is. I'm not sure John needs to do anything. It is entirely up to candidates whether they participate in formal debates or hustings or just use the SNP channels to contact members with their platform.
DeleteJohn should certainly not debate him.
DeleteJohn, John, John...say it all.
DeleteWhy do the britnats continue to deny there is a generational shift towards Independence?Surely they must be old enough to remember what was the state of things at the beginning of the Scottish Parliament, with unionist parties in full control and Yes polls at around 30 %
ReplyDeleteIt's blog babble. Older people, on the whole, tend not to vote for dramatic change. The main demographic movement ATM is that the Scottish population is getting older.
DeleteThe baseline has.
ReplyDeleteWake me up when the polls are 60/40, not a 'sensational' 1% change. If the author doesn't want to look silly, he should avoid comedic headlines.
ReplyDeleteJust be happy it was not "staggering".
DeleteScotland is going the same way Wales did in the 80s and 90s with net migration from England. That 10% is now about 13%. It's a demographic time bomb.
ReplyDeleteAt some point indigenous voting Scots won't be enough to get independence. Even if 70% vote yes! We are being slowly watered down. So gradually that most don't notice. It's much more obvious in the islands with a more sensitive population.
But Edinburgh and it's well to do satellite towns like Linlithgow and Queensferry are going down a similar demographic trajectory.
I hear a lot saying as the older no voters pass away , then the younger Scots will push up the yes vote. But I don't think they have studied the migration figures from England.
Scotland will not be the same country in 10 years time.
Scotland isn't the same country as it was ten years ago, in many ways it's better and in some worse
DeleteNicola Sturgeon saved Scotland and now Alex Salmond is determined to make it worse
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
DeleteAnon@8:26 Proof, if proof were needed, that this blog is the new WGD. Good luck trying to talk sense to these people, James.
Deleteanon 8:18: Welcome to Scotland!
DeletePersonally, I advocate disenfranchising everyone that lives in Methil. They deserve it, although I am not sure if any of them are capable of scrawling an 'X' in a box, or even holding a pencil.
Felix I have to disagree, on here you can get your posts published, WGD no way.
DeleteFair point. I was meaning more in terms of the level of fanatical delusion among the supporters of Oor Nicla below the line. EG 'Nicola saved Scotland'.
DeleteWhen will you people learn it you that are the rabid nationalists- Britnats! Wi Union flags on your dowps!
ReplyDeleteNot too familiar with Graeme McCormick, but from what I’ve seen and heard on news bulletins today, he appears to be someone with leadership qualities.
ReplyDeleteHe certainly does not!
DeleteHe may be a nice guy but he's bonkers.
DeleteI don't know if the posters are being ironic, or they are genuine zombies. How can you look at Scotland since 2014 and honestly say anything is better. At least we had hope in 2014. We don't even have that now.
ReplyDeleteThe posters on here prove how deep the cognitive dissonance lies in thd minds of SNP members.
It is like the Trueman Show.
Indeed. Good point. Agree fully.
ReplyDeleteThey'll probably be used for a new campervan for Oor Nicla😉
ReplyDeletePanic over. He has withdrawn from the election. Big John can sleep easy knowing that he doesn't have to produce any policies.
ReplyDeleteGraeme McCormick deserves praise for withdrawing. He is a good party member and has shown great maturity.
DeleteWell done Graeme!
He had had a long conversation with John Swinney and now fully endorses John's leadership.
He probably fell asleep
DeleteThe campervan was for campaigning during the pandemic. No mystery.
ReplyDeleteOf course the tories use helicopters to get around courtesy of their foreign sponsors.
ReplyDeleteAnon10:25 Tell that to Police Scotland, they don't seem to agree😁
ReplyDeleteFFS! 🤦
DeleteWhat's your point? Have the Polis given the keys back to the Murrells?
DeletePS I've seen Carry on Camping but not much sign of Carry on Campaigning.😁
For a long conversation with John read ' He was telt to stand down'.
ReplyDeleteNow he's a 'good party member' but further up the page he should be 'suspended', 'not to be debated with', 'bonkers', and 'not credible'. Nothing like a united party eh😂😂😂😂😂
DeleteYou will always find him in the kitchen at parties.
DeleteSwinney, or one of his elves, has churned out an article for the National. I would advise people not to waste their lives reading it. Here is a summary:
ReplyDeleteOK so apparently McCormick has dropped out after a long and fruitful talk with Swinney. But he has had media attention.
ReplyDeleteI nominate McCormick as the YES movement's monitor of Swinney as far as progress to Independence is concerned. He could report regularly, at least once a month.
He would have nothing to report on progress though.
DeleteWell, that would be a very valuable report.
DeleteMonth 1: Too early, wait until month 2.
DeleteMonth 2: Still early days, back in a bit.
Month 3: As I’m sure you’ll understand, there’s a lot going on.
Month 4: These squirrels are relentless!
Month 5: Election season! Independence remains a talking point in our pitch to voters.
Month 6: Sadly, after the general election result, the leadership is compelled to think again about independence.
Month 7: Now we have a new leader, it’s time to rally around their inspiring vision: Wheesht for Indy.
Guys: let's cut the SNP some slack on independence. As John Swinney said at the weekend there should be less discussion about mechanisms and more about building up a coalition of SNP voters. One thing for sure; the SNP is still the main vehicle.
DeleteChap a door and see what happens when you have no answer to the most obvious question of them all: “How will you get Independence?”
Delete“Well, eh, you see, John told us to wheesht for indy and y’know just kinda stand here with our hands in our pockets just hoping for a section thirty…”
Winning hearts and minds!
There is no point in pretending there is some mechanism that resolves the issue. We must treat the voters with respect.
DeleteLet us be clear with John Swinney to those voters on the doorstep on one thing: if we do not get independence it will not be for any want of hard work or strategy on the SNP's part.
'Report once a month'. It would need to be time lapsed. A glacier can't be seen moving with the naked eye!
ReplyDeleteNae harm to the guy but he got the publicity he craved for a few days. It must annoy the britnats now they have to seek their entertainment elsewhere.BBC will now have to make up something else.
DeleteWhat a week. Actions by the Greens led to an over action by the britnat parties and the SNP are now in a better position for the upcoming election.
Thanks guys.
Agree. SNP has emerged stronger and all the other parties emerged with egg on their faces.
DeleteWell done Humza Kate and John!
Oh aye the last two weeks have definitely been a vote winner for the SNP…
DeleteThe SNP is now united and has now turned a new page but retains a consistent strategy.
DeleteThe polling effects of all of this will be slow-release but will be sustained over many months to come in the run up to the UK election.
Slow release? So slow we won’t see them for the length of Swinney’s stint at front?
DeleteCoronation Chicken
ReplyDeleteSwinney will turn a really important new page for us in the SNP today but it's important he fully praise rather than in any way criticise Humza and Nicola. Let us not forget the electoral success of the last 10 years.
ReplyDeleteYes, he can adapt things. But let us in the SNP not be like Miliband who made the serious mistake of criticising rather than praising Blair Brown. We must build on the Nicola Humza leaderships which were so popular with the voters and NOT criticise them.
For Swinny it should be about unifying the party rather than changing direction or disowning the last 10 years of success.
DeleteAgreed. Nicola and Humza put together and held a winning coalition of voters. We destroy that at our peril.
DeleteJohn Swinneys job is surely to unify the party around the current electorally successful strategy.
“The last 10 years of success “ ?
Delete10 years of electoral success, Yes, but that’s it.
In 10 months, those 10 years will feel like another lifetime.
DeleteSurely these posters are trolls ,on the wind up. They have to be. Maybe it's Humza having a 😃
ReplyDeleteI’d have to agree with you.
DeleteThink about it. SNP have emerged stronger in the last two weeks. Alba have voted with unionist parties. Greens have overplayed their hand. And the unionist parties have egg on their faces.
DeleteSNP have emerged united and stronger.
Now is not the time to trash the last 10 years which has been perhaps Scotland's most successful electoral coalition ever.
Until James cracks down on the number of anonymous posts there's no knowing which of them are trolling. Suffice to say, there's still a suspiciously high number of 'I agree with...' posts hiding behind anonymity and probably all coming from the same individual.
DeleteUnited. Stronger. Deftness of touch. Tasty tasty carrots.
DeleteToday's mots de jour is 'egg on their faces'. Last week it was 'underminers'. Too limited in their vocabulary to hide their multiple posts with different words.
DeleteIt's almost like a 2nd rate AI program is being used to churn out the messages.
DeletePolicies such as respect then 62%!vote,to,remain in the eu. In the interim demand same deal,as Northern Ireland as it undermines Scots Agriculture and fishing as just one example. Prevent asset stripping like Grangemouth. Make sure no pollution left for us to clean up site
ReplyDeleteWhen In Eu, island communities to have lower Vat rate. Must be min of 15%.
Is it asset stripping when it’s making a loss, though? The refinery’s been in the red for a long while now, as ludicrous as that seems for an oil driven world. My read is the capitalists optimised around us, leaving us with nothing. The asset they strip is offshore.
DeleteBasically the Brit Nat brexiters want Scotland to have no industry. Send oil direct to refineries in England and elsewhere. No investment in alternatives unless it suits them to do similar with electricity generation.
DeleteAnon at 10:08, complete and utter nonsense.
DeleteCare to explain? No?
DeleteThe people who run the UK are good and wouldn't do such a thing
DeleteOh, they’re really, really good. Even the English are appalled with them. You saw what they just did to Rishi?
DeleteI've been waiting to see what would happen and oh yes here it. Yet another folder old parading up and down like a man fresh out of the loop. Oh dearie me.
ReplyDeleteEh?
DeleteI agree with eh?😁
DeleteWell life and the universe is random... possibly
DeleteThe guy drops out of the leadership contest, despite having reached the nominations
ReplyDeleteHad he stood he would have been pursued relentlessly by the rancid toxic MSM and the BBC, and of course the pathetic trolls. The trolls are the same cowardly pieces of filth that encouraged Murray to continue posting in clear breach of the laws of contempt and then disappeared like snow aff a dyke as soon as he was imprisoned. Low life unionists and cowards. James should block them.
ReplyDeleteSad, pathetic Nat bullshit.
DeleteYou pick strange posts to “reply” to, KC. You even know who Murray is?
DeleteHe has just confessed. Not the brightest is he?
DeleteAnybody that somehow thinks independence is a good idea is “not the brightest “🤣
DeleteAnon at 11:03, KC ??
DeleteWe must all unite behind the dazzling sage KC or no hope remains for His majesty His his united kingdoms. We can surely all agree. Great speech at conference btw.
DeleteThe SNP have been truly awful in recent years, and will pay the ultimate price at the ballot box in upcoming elections.
ReplyDeleteThere is little Swinney can do that will halt their decline, as the country have had enough of this wretched party.
SNP may well go up in the polls now under John Swinney and the more united ministerial team in the Scottish Government.
DeleteNaw they winnae.
DeleteWeren't they united under Humza then?
DeleteWith Kate outside SG, no.
DeleteOr certainly that is what you wish. But we don't always get what we want.
DeletePersonally my view is we should all unite with John Swinney and be a united vehicle. To splinter is to decline.
DeleteOh aye, sacking Kate on the first day in the job and all that talk of expelling Fergus when his mother died was terrifically welcoming and united.
DeleteWho in Scotland is voting Reform UK?
ReplyDelete1 in 10 voting for Reform or Alba? Doesn't smell right this poll.
Abhainn
Good point. Are the cross tabs publicly available? Is the Scottish figure extrapolated from UK-wide numbers or is it directly sampled?
DeleteI vaguely remember ukip polling far ahead of their actual election results here in the past, though. Polls are less accurate for fringe parties, stuck down near the margin of error.
This is a scotland only poll. It may be that the weighting methods are favourable to reform.
DeleteThe reform people can often be from many different backgrounds not just Conservative.
DeleteTice, 30p Lee, Garage, they are almost an antithesis of Scottish politics. Then again 24,000 voted for Baron Binhead for London Mayor. I guess any platform will attract some votes.
DeleteSweeney officially new SNP leader
ReplyDeleteTodd?
Delete