Sunday, July 5, 2020

This is the real deal: support for independence stays at record-breaking high of 54% in new Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times

When a poll shows something out of the ordinary, there's always a chance that the change is - either in whole or in part - an illusion caused by the margin of error, and that the next poll will show a reversion to the mean.  So after the highest ever Yes vote in a Panelbase poll last month, I would have happily settled for even the narrowest of Yes leads in the follow-up poll.  What we've ended up with is considerably better than that.

Should Scotland be an independent country?  (Panelbase, 30th June-3rd July 2020):

Yes 54% (n/c)
No 46% (n/c)

This is the moment for unionists to stop deluding themselves that it's some kind of fluke that Yes are in the lead.  You don't get 54% twice in a row by coincidence.  This is also the third poll in a row to show a pro-indy majority, and the fourth in a row to show Yes on 50% or higher.  I would imagine that those still in denial will cling to the fact that all of the recent polls were conducted by the same firm.  But the reality is that YouGov and Survation polls in January were pretty much bang in line with what a Panelbase poll showed at the same time, so there's no particular reason to suspect that other firms would be painting a different picture now.  Of course in an ideal world we'd have polls from a wider range of firms just to be sure, but I very much doubt that would prove to be any sort of get-out-of-jail-free card for the unionists.  It should also be noted that the new Panelbase poll was not, unlike the last three, commissioned by a pro-indy client, so that nonsensical excuse for a low No vote can't be used in this case either.

If you think the independence numbers are extraordinary, wait until you see the party political voting intention numbers...

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 55% (+2)
Conservatives 20% (-1)
Labour 15% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c)
Greens 3% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 50% (+2)
Conservatives 18% (-1)
Labour 15% (-1)
Greens 8% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)

Seats projection: SNP 74, Conservatives 24, Labour 17, Greens 9, Liberal Democrats 5

This means pro-independence parties would have 64% of the seats at Holyrood - I'm struggling to remember ever seeing such a high projected total.

The SNP have been riding at an exceptionally high level of support in recent months, but this takes it to a whole new plane - they haven't been as high as 55% on the constituency ballot or 50% on the list in any poll from any firm since the 2016 election.  Part of the explanation seems to be the space that has opened up as a result of collapsing support for the Conservative Party.  A substantial drop for the Tories was reported in the previous Panelbase poll (commissioned by Scot Goes Pop), and they've now slipped a touch further.  It's hard not to conclude that the change of political weather can be mostly explained by Boris Johnson's catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic, and by Nicola Sturgeon's assured response to the crisis.  Respondents were asked to express approval or disapproval for various leaders' performance - Ms Sturgeon has a positive net rating of +60, and Mr Johnson has a negative net rating of -39.  That yawning chasm pretty much says it all.

*  *  *

Just to avoid it getting lost - a couple of hours ago I posted an analysis of the pros and cons of Alex Salmond fronting a new pro-indy party.  You can read it HERE.  

80 comments:

  1. Excellent news. The situation would be greatly helped, and probably farther improved, by the simple step of the SNP leadership giving clear and definite indications that the push for independence is on. Momements don't last forever- say it now and act on that basis.

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    Replies
    1. Inclined to disagree. They have to focus 100% on public health.

      The way it can be farther improved is by the indy movement being clear and definite that the push is ON. And we start that by having the conversations that persuade people to support YES.

      Delete
    2. Let your opponents keep guessing. You don't put your plans into the public domain. I am hearing from reliable sources that plans are being made.

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    3. Always approaching - never arriving. I genuinely hope that you two are right and I am wrong but.....

      Delete
  2. Once a party gets to 50% on the list intention, it's "game over" for any gaming strategy. In fact, such a strategy becomes positively counter-productive instead of being potentially beneficial.

    Still, it does put the spotlight very firmly back on the SNP about what to do with it. Could Nicola possibly learn something in the political arena from Prof. Devi Sridhar in the public health field...?

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    Replies
    1. Nope. Wrong. Go and look at how AMS works again.

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    2. The main effect of looking at how AMS works again will be to learn that gaming the system via tactical voting on the list isn't viable at all, regardless of how the SNP are polling on the list.

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    3. James is there any other election anywhere in the world where 50% vote share (ie the list) gets so low a % of seats?

      What is the point of 50% vote share if it does not return seats?

      Now that it is at 50% it really highlights what a wasted vote the SNP list vote is. Use your list vote to get the least amount of unionists at Holyrood.

      Think of all the dead wood that would never get a seat at Holyrood again.

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    4. I'm sorry, but your whole point is based on a bogus premise. 50% of the list vote is perfectly capable of producing a massive haul of seats. "Tactically" switching votes to smaller parties is also perfectly capable of losing us an absolute truckload of seats.

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    5. OK thank you for your reply. What would you count as a massive haul of seats? At 50% it should be more than 50% of the list seats, but we both know it will be nearer 3 or 4 if the projection for the first past the post seats.

      SDo once again what is your estimate for a massive haul of seats?

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    6. At 50% it should be more than 50% of the list seats, but we both know it will be nearer 3 or 4 if the projection for the first past the post seats.

      At 50% of the list vote, they'll receive roughly 50% of the list seats (why should it be "more"?). That's unless they've already received a share of the constituency seats which is out of proportion to their vote, in which case their allocation of list seats will be reduced to compensate for that.

      That seems more than fair. On this poll, the SNP will receive about 57% of seats based on 55% of the vote.

      Delete
  3. Too little too late. The tories are coming for Holyrood. They will emasculate it and leave it with as much power as a park attendant. Just look at today's headline in the National.

    We've squandered what chances we've had through the SNP's overly cautious approach and fear of confrontation.

    Sadly, I sincerely doubt I'll see independence within my lifetime now. I'm beginning to doubt that we actually deserve it. 2014 was probably the only real chance we had.

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    1. Seconded.

      (Pity that for some, the darkness is totally impenetrable just before the dawn. How convenient too for the increasingly-desperate BritNats. Just a coincidence...?)

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    2. Utter-pish. If the FM or SNP had used the past few months to argue for independence those poll figures would probably be the opposite.

      We're in a great situation right now, ScotGov proactively learning from its mistakes, delivering on reducing death to low as possible, and our opponents making our own case for us with their shambolic actions.

      It's making people smell the coffee, and giving a new base to build from when the pandemic is over.

      Delete
  4. While everyone who supports independence will be welcoming the shift in recent opinion polls, I’m sure there will be some like me who have thoughts of ‘will it last?’ Especially when we don’t really know what’s shifting the numbers (likely a combo of loads of different things).

    So its worth noting how, in the long run, the COVID-19 pandemic can help the case for independence. I admit that seems like a morbid hypothesis, but bare with me.

    For brevity, I’ll give one example.

    We can expect that unionists will say, because of the size and strength of the UK the Westminster Government was able to spend billions on supporting the economy, incomes etc that an independent Scotland could never afford.

    But that is of course baloney. Because there is no independent country of similar size to Scotland (Ireland/Switzerland/Norway/NZ/Denmark…) that was UNABLE to support its economy and raise investment.

    The line of argument (and retort) is the same as it would have been pre-covid. But the difference is that as every country around the world has faced the same problem there is the evidence to debunk it clearly and simply.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Agreed. As an example, little Slovenia has supported its workers with a furlough scheme and their "new deal" is much higher per capita than Boris Johnson's rearrangement of the deckchairs on the Titanic. And, critically, it's ALL NEW MONEY.

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    2. Slovenia has a 2 million population. The UK taxpayer has bailed out Scotland.

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    3. If the UK taxpayers can bail out the UK the independent Scottish taxpayers can bail out an independent Scotland

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    4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    5. As anon kindly pointed out yesterday, there are 750k 'Scots' paying tax in England, but only 500k 'English' paying tax in Scotland.

      In that sense, it would be wise for unionists to just say 'Scots' pay their own way.

      I would personally class e.g. Stuart Campbell and Andrew Marr as 'English taxpayers', but anon and the unionists insist they are not English, but 'Scottish'. If so, we need to add all the taxes they generate (including income, corporation, VAT) to Scotland's income.

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    6. This is just getting ridiculous. The Scottish taxpayer has bailed out Scotland. And not only that the Scottish taxpayer has bailed out Scotland, it has bailed out to a degree the other three countries of the UK. Why? Because Scottish BDP per capita is higher than English, Welsh or NI BDP. Had Scotland been an independent country, it could have come out with a much higher bail-out per capita than UK (as practically all other EU countries have done) and the bail-out would have been targeted to Scotland's needs.

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    7. Conversely too, if Scotland was independent we could have had an earlier lockdown which would have lasted shorter and needed less stimulus.

      Whatever way you cut it, the benefits are clear.

      Delete
  5. I'm putting together a wee thank you list for the current polling figures.

    So far I have:
    Sturgeon & Co
    Johnson
    Cummings
    GWC
    Anon

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    Replies
    1. Independence for ScotlandJuly 5, 2020 at 12:45 PM

      You must add the BBC for kindly broadcasting on a daily basis the difference between a Scottish gov handling the pandemic and the inept buffoons in Downing st. Never thought I would have cause to thank the BBC ( even if it is unintentional ) for boosting support for independence.

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  6. So, it would seem that, according to GWC, Scottish taxpayers are Not U.K. taxpayers?

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    Replies
    1. What makes you think that? The UK tax payer also bailed out England, Wales & NI. The UK taxpayer also helped bail out ROI during the 2008 crash. Remember the ROI who wee eck held its economy in such in high regard as opposed to the UK.

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    2. Us unionists like oor bailoots and subsidies. Junkies fir it sae we are.

      Delete
  7. I think we will see consolidation of support and further rises because

    1. the reality of brexit is yet to sink in for most people who don't follow political stuff as close as folk reading this blog
    2. Now indy is majority - there is a tendency to follow the crowd. the best people to persuade folk for no to yes are the ones who just made that journey themselves. We now seem to have a lot of evangelical yes converts out there.

    But I have no doubt that there is no moral low to which this degraded government won't stoop to stop independence. The SNP need to be very watchful and ready to play hard ball when the time comes.
    On the plus side, the rise support in england for english exceptionalism and independence might just dampen enthusiasm for keeping hold of scotland at all costs.

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    1. A lot of sense there. As to your last point, there is no political downside whatever in England for the UKGov to give up on Scotland. The exceptionalists are positively lusting to get rid of us and the sympathetic ones would be regretful but would understand.

      The obstacles are financial (yes, they do need our precious resources, despite their hypocritical "poverty propaganda"), organisational (those conveniently-distant nuclear arsenal stores), but above all psychological (self-pride - the English governing classes fear the humiliation of finally being told by their nearest neighbours to stuff their exceptionalism and take a hike.

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    2. While I don't want any help with their campaigning style or tactics, worth remembering that with Brexit there are a hell of a lot of people in England (FBPE crowd) who are sympathetic to the independence cause than there was in 2014.

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    3. Especially Gove Grizebard. The look on his face, as he is made a foreign citizen by his own homeland, will be something to see.

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  8. Dear British Nationalists and Unionists,

    If you are upset by this poll, simply use one of the the following clever retorts.

    1) The poll didn't ask me therefore it is invalid.
    2) The Sunday Times/Panelbase/[insert organisation] are controlled by the nats and untrustworthy (except for when they print something I agree with)
    3) Yes but when Alex Salmond has his court case nobody will want independence.
    4) Scots are too wee/too poor/too stupid - generally inferior. (Make sure you point them to the annual Scottish government budget surplus as evidence they can't even spend all the tax money raised - call it an "underspend", but also point to the £13 bn deficit the UK allocates to Scotland as evidence that "Scotland" runs a deficit.)
    5) Appends numerous "laughing so hard I'm crying" emojis to your social media comments, then block.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Independence for ScotlandJuly 5, 2020 at 12:39 PM

    Sunday Politics Scotland BBC

    Gordon Brewer gives Jackson Carcrash the opportunity to rant and rave this morning uninterrupted in a mad Sturgeon bad party political broadcast disguised as an interview. Obviously, the BBC have been told to do this after looking at the polls and the Tories complaining about Sturgeon getting a daily broadcast on the BBC. Not even many old Tories would be happy to see Carlaw as FM during this pandemic. These old Tories know there is no value in the promise of a tax cut if you are deid due to the virus. The word selfish runs through them like a stick of rock.

    Classic - the BBC being the reason for independence rising in the polls and Tories going down in the polls. Britnats heads are exploding with rage all over the UK but especially in Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jackson Carcrash - very good.

      The man in question probably now knows that he is likely to have a bad election night next May, followed by a humiliating resignation as he is made the fall-guy for it, with the real fall-guy's, Johnson and Gove, wielding the knife.

      Delete
  10. GWC: "Slovenia has a 2 million population. The UK taxpayer has bailed out Scotland."

    So you're saying that an independent country of 2 million can obviously pay for itself but independent countries with a higher population (e.g. Denmark, Ireland) can't and need to beg for money from larger countries?

    That's an interesting argument GWC. It explains why Ireland and Denmark are constantly getting in touch with the UK and saying "please, clever British people, run our economies".

    It's like when my wife and I order fish suppers we are able to pay easily because we only have to split the bill between the two of us. But when my wife's brother comes round and we all order fish suppers, we can't afford them because the bill is split between three so everyone has to pay more.

    Obviously in those cases we need to go round to our neighbours (who are British) and beg for the money on our hands and knees.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was not arguing just pointing out the difference in population. And Scotland has been bailed out by the UK taxpayer.

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    2. Aye, England was bailed oot by taxpayers in Wales, Scotland etc.

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    3. Oh dear. These English philanthropists must be exceeding foolish then to stubbornly insist on clinging on to us, we ingrate handoot merchants and oor expensive needs. Amazing how deranged your wannabe friends must be.

      Still, when finally all the support they have left here has shrivelled up to little old you, they'll dump you in a flash, Witless Cringer. You're eminently disposable.

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  11. GWC if you stand by your point, can you explain why this fish supper analogy is wrong?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't ask Covidia to think.
      It hasn't been given permission.

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    2. I get my fish supper delivered with a penny onion that now costs 30p. Have you noticed that we left the EU five months ago and even with the pandemic the Jocks are crossing into England for a beer. What happened to the economic collapse predicted by the Nat zis.

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    3. "...a penny onion that now costs 30p"

      That's what you get after 50 years of incompetent Union management of a decaying fusty old empire. A rubbish currency getting steadily worse.

      You said it yourself. Just try joining up the dots now:

      "1" - "2" - ...

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    4. A penny onion cost a halfpenny before Heath took us into the EEC. The jocko nat sis opposed the EEC but have since been corrupted by it. Once you get the haun in the pie Nat sis there is no turning back.

      Delete
    5. There's these things called numbers. They're great for counting things. You can get help with learning them.

      Delete
  12. I wish the SNP ministers when calling for more finance or borrowing powers would make it clear its not coming from England but the UK.
    Scotland pays taxes too just like England.
    This is often exploited in the letters pages in simplistic terms and seems to be targeted on those who don't see the broader picture.
    Remember, in a referendum every vote counts.

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    Replies
    1. Andrew 'Glorietta' BowieJuly 5, 2020 at 11:02 PM

      Begone, foul varlet!

      Delete
  13. Beware of "concerned" supposedly indy supporters.

    Positivity is now more needed than ever. Positivity from supporters but especially from the SNP/SG.

    Britnats only have negativity to work with. That negativity will double down as independence support increases. Positivity must double up!

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  14. Anyone know if George "Catsuit" Galloway has transformed Scottish politics yet?
    His customer base in England must have been shrinking badly.

    ReplyDelete
  15. "This means pro-independence parties would have 64% of the seats at Holyrood"

    Without anyone gaming the system either.

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    Replies
    1. Independence for ScotlandJuly 5, 2020 at 5:27 PM

      The only gaming of any voting system is the Westminster/UK/ English dictatorship phoney democracy system whereby English MPs will ALWAYS outvote the combined votes of Scotland/Wales and N. Ireland. Now that's what you call really fixing the system so that you always win. England guaranteed winners since 1707.

      Now you know why they say it is the most successful Union ever - because it is the most successful union for England because it was set up that way from the beginning.

      Why do you never mention this? Some people just seem to get off on electoral success for the SNP. Independence for Scotland is what it is all about.

      Delete
    2. I'm all for gaming the Westminster FPTP system. SNP remain the best bet here for sure. Unionists dream of heading to London, so the less we send the better. A tactical SNP vote makes sense for the voters of other indy parties.

      For Holyrood, you should vote for who you want in government on the non-British gold standard European PR regional list vote, and if you want to game the British FPTP system, then again tactically vote SNP on the constituency.

      Delete
  16. Be 60%+ before the chlorinated chicken hits the shelves..

    Thank you Boris, for being such a catastrophic PM

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  17. The constant repetition that the English taxpayer is bailing out Scotland made by GWC and others is about all they have left. I call it the "Halfwit Factor" because nobody with half a brain any more believes that a UK with a £3trillion debt is hanging onto wee Scotland to give it money. It isn't even worth arguing about and folk just laugh when they hear it. This is where we are. Our enemy in the UK establishment and the media it owns doesn't understand it has lost us and still imagines it has a significant support base in Scotland. That's where the "there is no border" idiocy comes from. They imagine this is a popular sentiment of a significant proportion of Scots. How wrong they are! The Union only survived because there is a border and two proud but friendly partners on either side of it. Not because Scotland was subsumed into a greater England.

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    1. Were you called 'Guppy' at school?

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    2. Never mind "halfwit", the tenth-wit factor has just responded, it seems.

      It's a sure sign that you've made a decent point when the verbally-incontinent resident nitwit regresses to infantile playground abuse.

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    3. A sure sign to you as you are a nat si. The Nat sis are not friendly towards the English. Scottish Unionists are. Hill was talking pish. You nat si sign petitions to keep the English out. You try to stop the English crossing the border disguised with your tartan face masks. Bunch of fookin Nazis if you ask me. Did the English stop the jocks from going for a pint in Carlisle, Naw.

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    4. "Scottish Unionists are [friendly towards the English]" Yes, but it's not reciprocated, dimwit. When they think about you at all (rare), they secretly despise you behind your back for being the spineless cringers you are. You haven't a clue. It will take independence to wake you up.

      Meanwhile, carry on with your abusive verbal diarrhoea. You're winning converts for indy every day.

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    5. Scottish unionists hate the English; they only like the British.

      GWC does nothing but hurl abuse at my English neighbour simply because the latter is English.

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    6. Aye, England ain't a country and there's nae such thing as English culture. Britain is oor country and oor culture is British.

      We ur a people.

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  18. And this is before brexit hits.
    And before the campaign.

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    1. Brexit hit January 2020. We are out. Nat sis are rather backward when it comes to history.

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    2. You bloody imbecile - the date of technical leaving was always irrelevant. The economic effects come after 1st Jan. 2021. Primary school children know this but not you with a wet fart for a brain.

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    3. Historically it was relevant just like Culloden. So you are involved with primary school children! Rather onerous if you ask me.

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  19. Worth remembering that the Faroes, with 350000 population have just raised €ms in government bonds to pay the costs of coronavirus effects on the economy. Westminster won’t allow that level of autonomy here because it would blow away the subsidy myth once and for all

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    1. If its not the Faroes then it is ROI or the Scandanavian countries. You Nat sis just keep quoting anything that comes into yer heid.

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    2. you'd know a lot about that GWC

      except yer contributions usually come fae yer arse no yer heid

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    3. Well, Gross Witless Cringer, you're the resident expert so I guess you should know..!

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    4. I know you Nat zis are nasty. We Unionists can be if required.

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    5. As in George Square on IR1 evening with your rowdy pals and their Hitler salutes, I suppose. (C'mon, show and tell, you were there, weren't you?)

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    6. Aye, us unionists will have you Scottish and you English pricks and yer wee pretendy countries.

      There's only one country and its Britain First! Rule Britannia!

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    7. I was with the Young Catholic Socialist Paedophiles (YCSP) that night.The Unionists gave us a fair old rogering. Big boys some of them.


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    8. Enough with the jokey deflection. You were there with the "big Union boys", weren't you? Just too damn cowardly to admit it...

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    9. The joke was the word socialist. You would not get that. The last time I was on a demonstration was when the Scottish Gov changed the local authority pension retirement rules. You would not get that either.

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    10. You have no idea what I would or wouldn't "get". I am getting a clear picture of you, though: a loudhailer front and nothing in behind.

      You're the last of your kind. Thankfully.

      Delete
    11. I have no interest in what you do or do not get Nat zi. I know where you come from politically and that is sufficient for the Unionists. Over to you now. You are not as smart as you think.

      Delete
    12. Independence for ScotlandJuly 6, 2020 at 2:44 AM

      There is no such thing as UK unionists - just Britnat turds.

      Delete
    13. How does it feel being gubbed by over 2 million turds! If a turd votes for the Nat sis is it still a turd?

      Delete
  20. I can confirm that Andrew Bowie had a vibrating butt plug inserted during PMQs. Andrew (we call him Glorietta) turned up to vibro level 10 when Al winked at him. I bought him it as a daddy gift.

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  21. Independence for ScotlandJuly 6, 2020 at 2:41 AM

    The ultimate "too wee" comment from the ultimate bampot Brexiteer Britnat paper The Express -

    "Scottish Independence would reduce Scotland to a dot on the map"

    What's next - Scotland would disappear into a black hole?

    Like all Britnats the underlying message is that Scotland you are nothing without England. Of course the truth is England wouldn't be able to pay its bills without Scotland.

    ReplyDelete