Sunday, June 7, 2020

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll: SNP on course to win almost every single Scottish seat at Westminster, while the Tories and Lib Dems would be WIPED OUT - Scottish Parliament looks set for a big SNP overall majority with Labour and the Tories facing substantial seat losses

Before I saw the results of the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, the trend I found easiest to predict was a sharp decline for the Tories.  They've been going backwards at a rate of knots in recent Britain-wide polls, especially since the Cummings scandal, and I couldn't see any particular reason why it would be a different story in Scotland.  What I didn't foresee, though, is that this change of fortune would put the SNP in the zone of potentially winning virtually every single Westminster seat in Scotland - slightly more than they won even at their high watermark of 2015.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, 1st-5th June 2020):

SNP 51% (+1)
Conservatives 21% (-5)
Labour 19% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)
Greens 2% (n/c)

Seats projection: SNP 58 (+10), Labour 1 (n/c)

(Note: Percentage changes are measured from the last Panelbase poll, which was commissioned by Wings Over Scotland and conducted in early May.  Changes on the seats projection are measured from the actual result of the 2019 general election.)

The seats projection doesn't include the words "Conservatives 0 (-6), Liberal Democrats 0 (-4)", because why should we treat them differently to any other fringe parties?  Don't even mention parties that win zero seats and then people will forget they exist.  But, no, in all seriousness, the Electoral Calculus projection model really does suggest that both the Tories and the Lib Dems would be totally wiped out on these figures.  In reality, the likelihood is that the Lib Dems would hold Orkney & Shetland as they did in 2015, but it's not entirely inconceivable that the Tories could be removed from the Scottish map on 21% of the vote - and that says more about the absurdity of the voting system than about anything else.  But, hey, the Tories are the most enthusiastic cheerleaders for first-past-the-post, so they're in no position to complain.

Although the Tory vote share is substantially down since the last poll and also since the general election, it may surprise you to learn that they've actually been lower than 21% on a few occasions within the last eighteen months.  The lowest figure I can find is 18% in two Panelbase polls in May and June of 2019.  But that was during the brief heyday of the Brexit Party, when Farage was successfully wooing the type of hardline Tory voter that other parties don't have a hope of reaching.  There's no equivalent alibi for the Tory slump this time - their lost votes have instead gone to mainstream parties of the centre-left and the centre.  3% of Conservative voters from the general election are now in the SNP column, 8% have gone to Labour, and 2% to the Liberal Democrats.

Although Labour are not projected to gain any seats, there may be an indication here that the Starmer bounce south of the border is being partly replicated in Scotland.  19% is Labour's highest vote share in any poll (by any firm) since the general election.  However, all that means is they're back to where they started under Corbyn on polling day in December - which falls short of their current performance in England, where they're now comfortably outscoring their general election vote share.  They're plainly being hampered in Scotland by the wide appeal of the SNP.  It's telling that Labour have retained a significantly lower percentage of their voters from December (76%) than the Tories have (86%).  Roughly one-sixth of people who voted Labour are now minded to vote SNP, although those switchers have been offset by other voters moving towards Labour (partly from unionist parties).

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 53% (n/c) 
Conservatives 21% (-2)
Labour 16% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 6% (+1)
Greens 3% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

SNP 48% (n/c) 
Conservatives 19% (-3)
Labour 16% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)
Greens 7% (n/c)

Seats projection: SNP 72 (+9), Conservatives 25 (-6), Labour 19 (-5), Liberal Democrats 8 (+3), Greens 5 (-1)

The Holyrood pattern is very similar to the Westminster trends, with the Tories polling lower than they have for months.  In fact their 19% on the regional list vote equals their lowest ebb during the Brexit Party surge last year.

There's been no further progress for the SNP, but that's not surprising given that they must already have been pretty close to their absolute ceiling of support anyway.  They're on course for an overall single-party majority of fifteen seats - which would be an almost unbelievable feat under a proportional representation system.  I don't think enough has been said about just how phenomenal it is that they've been consistently polling in the mid-to-high 40s on the list ballot this year.  Throughout the whole of 2019 they never scored higher than 39% on the list in any poll from any firm.  Some of the improvement can probably be explained by the change of weighting scheme after the general election - but not all of it.

The pro-independence parties in combination would have 77 seats if this poll was replicated on polling day, and the anti-independence parties in combination would have only 52.  That's roughly a 60/40 split in favour of independence.  There's also a clear pro-independence majority in the popular vote on both ballots (56% in the constituencies, 55% on the list). Whatever type of mandate the pro-indy parties end up seeking next year - whether it's for a referendum or for independence - they clearly have the opportunity of gaining an immaculate one.

For the first time, the Conservatives will have to start seriously contemplating the possibility of dropping back significantly from the 31-seat haul they won under Ruth Davidson in their breakthrough year of 2016.  Obviously proportional representation would cushion their fall and there would be no wipeout of the sort that is a possibility at Westminster, but slipping to 25 seats would still be a humbling experience for them.

It must be dispiriting for Labour that the minor progress they've made under Starmer leaves them significantly below their performance under Corbyn and Kezia Dugdale in 2016, and thus on course to lose more seats and slump to yet another new all-time low of Holyrood representation.  It doesn't help matters for them that a full one-quarter of people who voted Labour in the general election would vote SNP on the constituency ballot - although that partly just reflects the fact that some people will always vote differently in Holyrood and Westminster elections, with Holyrood more of a "home fixture" for the SNP.

*  *  *

There are several more questions to come from the poll.  To be the first to know when they're released, you can follow me on Twitter HERE.  You can also read my Sunday National piece about last night's results HERE.

51 comments:

  1. My word, this SNP Honeymoon from 2007 continues.

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  2. Yeah, longest political honeymoon in recorded history . . .

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    1. Have you seen the potential suiters, you'll ken why..lol

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  3. Some poll, James!

    Great questions asked as well.

    Have to agree, I was laughing with my pal that the SNP are almost the ANC of Europe - in power for 14 years and average polling of late of 48-50%! Unbelievable.

    A long way to go, but the election looks good for next year ; although what happens if we do win a majority or win the help of the Greens and pass a bil for another referendum and the Tories say no?

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  4. These SNP figures are before they kick a campaign ba'...I'd like to think with a wee bit of finesse and BLOODY HARD WORK they can be increased.....just like the current 52% YES polling.

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    1. Final result is at the ballot box Nat si boy. We Unionists are not going away. You can blabber all you like until the coos come home but it is the X on the box that matters.

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    2. Aaaaaaahahahaha classic comment of a destined loser

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    3. Unfortunately for GWC the news keeps getting worse and worse, and as for the Unionists not going away, we know that but the'll be too embarrassed to vote for Clacton Jackdaw because he isnae in the Ludge and the only Orange thing about him is his face
      Even the Northern star Ruth the Mooth and her band of millionaire Aberdeen Orange fisherfolk cannae save him now

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    4. Agreed Bill, the hard work is yet to come and support can only increase and when it does we will take back the power to run our own country.

      Westminster is a hinderence we could do without, they hold us back.

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    5. Always fun to see Covidia screeching with impotent rage.
      Besides, it doesn't vote; it can't spell X...

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  5. What a Carlaw bounce, oh what?

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  6. Not good news for unionist parties. I guess we can expect the usual British nationalist bollocks.

    1) Scots are filthy beggars who could never survive without handouts from us Brits.
    2) But you hate the English. That's the real reason you want independence.
    3) We'll give you home rule/federalism, and this time we really really mean it, honest. Not now, obviously, but at some point in the future.
    4) The votes of those who support independence should be worth less than those who don't, so let's say they need 60%.
    5) Gordon Broon.

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    1. There are a lot more filthy beggars hinging aboot Glesga streets since the decade long Nat si rule. And food banks increased since Nat si socialist rule. The only people with a guaranteed wage is the politicians and their police force.

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    2. And now Trump's USA has just demanded you lot hand over Prince Andrew "for questioning". What a day for unionism. lol. Your attempts to spin this are going to be hilarious.

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    3. Blame Westminster for keeping over 80% of scottish tax money

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  7. So no change in the SNP vote from the last panelbase poll but the Tories slumping 5% in the Westminster vote is a biggy and also 2% and 3% respectively in the Holyrood constituency and list votes.

    I'll take that as progress, finally people are starting to see the Tory party for what they really are. The real scroungers have always been them, they suck the wealth from the poorest to make themselves richer. They are blood sucking leeches and we would do better without them in power.

    Take back control! What a joke, these charlatans are incapable of controlling thier own bladder never mind running a country.

    Thanks for the poll and the sensible questions, we are going places and will leave Westminster behind.

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    1. Your Nat si Mps have gone places. Hampstead Heath, Soho, Regents Park, Hyde Park and Clapham Common. Great being an MP in Britannia.

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    2. It is to be hoped that Covidia made it back to the sobbing cupboard without any mishaps.

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  8. Uma proddy ..

    Well, atheist .. we all really know there's no really a beardy man in the sky ..

    Don't we? GWC??

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  9. Somebody on a bugle playing the last post.
    Union flag being lowered.
    England trying to get the best possible deal in the Indy negotiations.
    Keys of Faslane handed over to the Scottish Govt.
    EU start re-entry negotiations with the new Scottish state.
    England UK shrinks into itself and declares a national emergency blaming 'divisive nationalism'.
    Night, Night.

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  10. Donsprita de las Limas TresasJune 8, 2020 at 2:23 AM

    Encouraging poll figures both for Parliament and Westminster. Surprising when we keep hearing how loathed the SNP is. It's almost as though the media were lying.

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  11. You can always tell when the resident clown has taken a big hit - he resorts to pornographic one-liners. So now that hollow sinking feeling must really be gnawing at him. And with these results, no wonder.

    But it's only gonna get worse,far worse,as time goes on, garrulous...

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  12. Cummings really knows how to get a shift in the polls, that's for sure.

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  13. Clacton Jackdaw? ...and all this time I thought his name was Tragic Carcrash.
    #

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  14. Prof. Curtice has this morning tweeted a direct link to your blog for this article. I guess then, that he intends to do an analysis of the poll results on What Scotland Thinks.

    https://twitter.com/WhatScotsThink/status/1269906720974950400

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  15. Why was this legislation not introduced earlier in the year when infected people were streaming into Scotland?

    https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-public-health-checks-at-borders/pages/overview/

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    1. Why not email Priti Patel she's the one in charge of UK borders. If you get no response try Johnson or Cummings.

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    2. Erm, this is UK government* legislation because borders & migration are reserved.

      http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2020/169/contents/made

      I guess you didn't read your own link? In just the second paragraph you are informed it is UK legislation.



      ---

      *being passed into Scots law as it affects some devolved areas.

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  16. er no its Scottish legilation becasue its being made using powers under the :
    The Scottish Ministers make the following Regulations in exercise of the powers conferred by section 94(1)(b)(i) of the Public Health etc. (Scotland) Act 2008(1), and all other powers enabling them to do so.

    Which is the UK Gov act that gave them the powers:
    http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2008/5/pdfs/asp_20080005_en.pdf

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    1. Erm, that's how devolution works. The UK passes laws for the UK (in this case a statutory instrument) which the devolved nations must implement using devolved powers as appropriate. If they don't have these, the UK government will give the devolved nations the legal power to do so if needed.

      The devolved nations then pass the UK legislation into respective laws. They can say no for devolved areas with a no consent motion, but London can simply overruled this.

      Borders and migration are reserved matters. Only an idiot would argue otherwise.

      Next you'll be telling us that Holyrood controls visas and the border force.

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  17. Again this has nothing to do with borders and immigration. The legislation is being passed using a SI from the Public Health etc. (Scotland) Act 2008(1)

    Scotland has not got the powers to close borders etc as you say. But it does have the power under Public Health etc. (Scotland) Act 2008(1) to pass legislation to require people to isolate and issue fines quanrenteen orders etc one they are in Scotland under public health legislation which is devolved.

    So let me rephrase. Why was the Scot Gov not using the devolved public health powers that it has and is using now to isolate travelers into Scotland at the high of the epidemic?

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    1. The act is a statutory instrument of the UK parliament devolved to the Scottish parliament for legal purposes. It does not relate to Scotland, but to the UK common travel area a whole.

      If it has nothing to do with borders and immigration, why are the UK Border Force responsible for implementing and enforcing the legislation? At which point did the Scottish government take control of the UK border force? Maybe you can enlighten us?

      Are you seriously saying the Scottish government has the power to detain foreign national immigrants for a breach of UK entry conditions?

      Of course it's a bloody immigration matter you imbecile.

      You didn't read the act. The legislation is part of a UK wide legislation under the immigration act.

      People arrive at Edinburgh Airport en route to England, N. Ireland and Wales too; all part of the common travel area. Likewise, people fly into e.g. Newcastle on route to Scotland.

      "Interpretation
      2. In these Regulations—

      “common travel area” has the meaning given in section 1(3) of the Immigration Act 1971(1)"

      Read your own links before posting. This is UK legislation being applied at devolved level to account for the different legal systems.

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    2. See below from Thepnr which covers the extension of powers I mentioned earlier.

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    3. No its not is a SI under the Public Health etc. (Scotland) Act 2008(1), it clearly says this at the top.

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    4. It's UK-wide legislation, otherwise Scotland could use it to close the border with England and N. Ireland. This, TBH, would be much more effective.

      However, the border in the document is clearly defined as the UK border; the governing legislation is UK-wide, being applied to/in Scotland via currently (and recently) devolved legislation.

      If you want it to be Scottish and that Sturgeon can shut the border at Gretna, vote Yes.

      And shutting Scottish airports alone would have been like closing a small upstairs window while the front and back doors were wide open. The epidemic in Scotland took off via community (i.e. England/rUK) transmission.

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    5. being applied to/in Scotland via currently (and recently) devolved legislation.

      Nope its a SI based on a act that was passed over a decade. Anyhow never mind it will all come out in the wash at the enquiry.

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  18. The UK government now has the joint-lowest approval rating worldwide for its management of coronavirus, according to YouGov polling.

    Only 41% of Britons say the government is managing the outbreak well, versus 56% who say it is mishandling it. This gives a net score of -15, down from -6 the week previously, and on a par with Mexico.

    This means the British government’s approval rating is now lower than Trump’s. His administration’s response to the crisis currently generates a net score of -12, down from -7 the week before, with 41% of Americans saying the government is performing well compared to 53% who say it is performing poorly.

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  19. The Scottish government do not have and have never had the power to order a person to be kept in isolation or quarantined. The UK regulations specify the powers Scotland can make under Schedule 19 of the Coronavirus Act 2020 that came into force on 25th March.

    Restrictions on power to make regulations under paragraph 1

    (3)Regulations under paragraph 1(1) may not include provision imposing a special restriction or requirement mentioned in paragraph 4(2)(a), (b), (c) or (d).

    Special restrictions and requirements

    4(1)For the purposes of this Schedule—

    (a)a “special restriction or requirement” means a restriction or requirement mentioned in sub-paragraphs (2) to (4), but

    (b)a restriction or requirement mentioned in paragraph 1(4)(a), (b) or (c) is not to be regarded as a special restriction or requirement.

    (2)In relation to a person, that the person—

    (a)submit to medical examination;

    (b)be removed to a hospital or other suitable establishment;

    (c)be detained in a hospital or other suitable establishment;

    (d)be kept in isolation or quarantine;

    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2020/7/schedule/19

    Right now in Scotland it is guidance that you self isolate if you have symptoms of Covid-19 it is not law and you cannot be prosecuted for not doing so. This is why Cummings could get away with travelling the length of England while his wife was infected and he even admits he too thought he was infected. That was his excuse for travelling. He said they were both infected and they needed child care in case they became too ill.

    It is clear from the above that Schedule 19 of the Coronavirus Act 2020 specifically forbids the Scottish government from passing legislation as in sections 4a to 4d above.

    If you want Scotland to have those powers, including powers over their own border and her own Treasury then you will have to wait until the prople of Scotland vote to become Independent.

    Until then there is no option, other than to follow law passed in Westminster and imposed on Scotland by this Tory government. That's what people voted for in 2014, I doubt though it will be the same result next time.

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  20. The only way to order a person to quarentine themselves under the Public Health Scotland Act 2008 is to make an application to a sherrif in a Scottish court and prove that person has an infectious disease or has been exposed to an organism which causes such a disease. You also have to prove that the person is a significant risk to public health.

    Good luck with that undertaking for every person coming into Scotland.

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  21. Why doesn't the Scottish government pass a law that continues freedom of movement with the EU?

    Why haven't the Scottish government increased corporation tax on the tax dodging internet companies like Google and Amazon?

    Why doesn't the Scottish government increase the minimum wage and pesions to the EU avergae and give everyone a decent standard of living.

    Why has the Scottish government not yet announced plans to continue the furlough scheme and business assistence for as long as this crisis lasts?

    A. Westminster is in control of these matters.
    B. These powers are outwith the competence of the Scottish government and are reserved to Westminster.
    C. Scotland is not yet an Independent country.
    D. All of the above.

    Take your time to carefully consider your answer.

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  22. If the UK do a trade deal with the US and they get their way.

    Can the Scottish government pass laws that will make it illegal to import or sell cholinated chicken and hormone injected beef to protect our farmers and maintain animal welfare standards?

    If not, why not? Discuss LOL

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    1. The chlorinated chicken was a lie by the remainers. You can choose what you want.

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    2. Why doesn't the Scottish Government just print more money like the Bank of England does? Why doesn't it print a population share i.e. 1/12th of another £600 billion - i.e. £50 billion, and instead of giving it to banks to make more profit with and put people in more debt, put it where it can do some good?

      Hey, I like this game :-)

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    3. Haha yeah its a good game and we can play it all day.

      Why isn't the Scottish government negotiating directly with the EU over access to the fishing grounds in Scottish waters? This is despite fishing being a devolved matter.

      A. Westminster moved the goalposts and took that power away from the Scottish government during Brexit negotiations.
      B. The Westminster government are planning to trade fishing access to the EU for something they want for the City of London?
      C. Scotland is powerless to negotiate with the EU until it becomes an Independent state?
      D. All of the above?

      Even the hard of thinking might get the right answer eventually. Take your time but don't dally too long :o)

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  23. Love that comment by the Goddess knickerless, 'the Tories are only interested in Politics'. Thought I had heard it all.

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  24. The most important reasons for supporting Independence are that you always get the government that Scottish voters choose and ALL decisions and laws affecting Scotland are made in Scotland by those you have elected.

    That's it! Keep the power to choose our elected officials and make our own laws in Scotland. All our laws not just those they deem to allow us. Do not allow England's electorate to decide who will make our laws for us especially when less than a quarter of Scots actually vote for that government at Westminster.

    You know what we need to do. Take Back Control!

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    1. Thought you Nat sis wanted the EU to make decisions on your behalf and pay them to do it.

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  25. In my humble opinion, the "Cumming effect" is zero. Partly because its a story for political anoraks and partly because most people were breaking the guidelines in small ways (e.g. meeting friends and family) so they'd be hypocritical to be mad at Cumming. The REAL reason for the poll shift was that week in the start of May when it became apparent that the UK was the worst country in Europe for Coronavirus, shortly followed by Boris easing lockdown restrictions in England whilst Nicola kept our lockdown. That moment, I believe, had a massive impact and will be long remembered. The Cumming story will, I think, quickly be forgr.

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    1. I agree to an extent fwiw.
      Certainly I think that the dash to the hills and beaches was just a human reaction to having to make decisions - should I or shouldn’t I?- making selfish decisions as soon as the guidelines suddenly had wiggle room. Same reason people are surprised and angry about public holiday traffic chaos - we each think we are exceptional.
      I’d have been happier if the last 2 weeks or so here in Scotland had been as per previous lockdown. No decisions to make, just guidance to follow. Certainly easier for the younger folk to follow clear lockdown needs, everything in between is tricky when based upon ‘family’ groups.

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