Saturday, June 6, 2020

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll: Sensation as Scottish voters, by a 3-1 margin, say that the Scottish Government's handling of the pandemic makes them "more confident" that Scotland will be well-governed as an independent country, and that the UK government's response to the crisis makes them "less convinced" that Scotland is safer as part of the UK

The primary responsibility of any government is to keep its citizens safe.  One of the reasons the Dominic Cummings scandal was so damaging for the UK government is that it was blindingly obvious that ministers were sacrificing public safety to protect the power of one man.  If the lockdown legislation had to be hastily 'reinterpreted' to make what Cummings did OK, they had absolutely no problem with that, even if they knew a laxer regime would cost lives.

It's one thing to put the public at risk because of policy misjudgements, but to do it intentionally and with so little subtlety...well, that's a whole different ball-game.  This poses a particular problem for those who want Scotland to remain part of the UK, because one of the main arguments against independence has always been that Scotland is "safer" with London rule.  You don't want to take any chances with your livelihoods, your pensions, etc, etc.  But if people start to feel that Westminster is actually putting them at direct risk, where else is there for the anti-indy campaign to go?  I decided to use the new Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll to find out how severe the damage is.

Does the handling of the coronavirus crisis by Boris Johnson and the UK Government make you more convinced or less convinced that Scotland is safer if it remains part of the UK?

More convinced: 20%
Less convinced: 59%

That's an ouch with a capital OUCH.  And no-one should be under any illusions that it's only people who already believe in independence who are reflexively saying they are less convinced.  Let's look, for example, at the figures for those who actually voted No in 2014...

2014 No voters:

More convinced: 29%
Less convinced: 41%

Or how about people who voted Labour in the 2019 general election?

2019 Labour voters:

More convinced: 18%
Less convinced: 63%

Or people who wanted Britain to leave the European Union?

2016 Leave voters:

More convinced: 33%
Less convinced: 43%

Of course none of this would matter very much if there was a similar lack of confidence in Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Government.  If you think all governments are as bad as each other, you're not going to bother with a major constitutional change.  So I also used the poll to ask a very similar question about the Scottish Government.  The results are nothing short of breathtaking - the polar opposite of the verdict on the UK government.

Does the handling of the coronavirus crisis by Nicola Sturgeon and the Scottish Government make you feel more confident or less confident that Scotland will be well-governed if it becomes an independent country?

More confident: 59%
Less confident: 22%

Once again, you might be surprised by some of the groups who say they are more confident about the good governance of an independent Scotland.  Take, for example, people who were born in England...

English-born voters resident in Scotland:

More confident: 43%
Less confident: 26%

Or No voters from 2014...

2014 No voters:

More confident: 39%
Less confident: 36%

Incidentally, even 25% of people who say they would vote No in a new referendum are more confident.  Last but not least, let's take a look at people who voted Labour in December, and who Richard Leonard probably thinks are the last people who would have any "appetite" for independence...

2019 Labour voters: 

More confident: 56%
Less confident: 26%

So you're probably starting to see why I said yesterday that I strongly suspected that the 2% boost in the headline Yes vote, relatively modest though it may be, is a genuine increase and not a quirk caused by normal sampling variation - and also why I think there's scope for further progress.

* * *

There are several more questions to come from the poll, so follow me on Twitter if you'd like to stay updated. You can also read my piece in The National about the headline independence results.

87 comments:

  1. Which side has the more firm supporters? It looks like the Yes side.

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  2. "and also why I think there's scope for further progress"

    It's still the wrong time for people to be asking themselves the Independence question, and why the SNP are right to have postponed campaigning, though we can still complain of course - that's not just our right, it's our contribution!

    But this poll was nevertheless exactly the right time.

    That 52% could already be way more, if the Indy Ref actually happened in the next few months.

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  3. I don't think it will take an awful lot to make some of that support for the Scottish government over Westminster to stick.

    Brexit is still in play though much muted of course but decisions on fishing are required by the end of this month I believe.

    The rumours of a trade deal with the US, opening up the prospect of chlorinated chicken and beef full of steroids is unlikely to play well with the general public and will infuriate farmers whose produce will be undercut in the UK market by cheap imports.

    Johnson and his government will make more mistakes and in fact are probably making a big one right now with the haste shown in relaxing lockdown restrictions. If another lockdown becomes necessary there might be no way back for him and his cronies.

    Great polling numbers and very heartening that it is clear what the direction of travel is. There will be many worried Unionists pondering over these results down Whitehall way.

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  4. Did your poll include the correct proportion of 16 & 17 year olds and EU citizens?

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    1. 16 and 17 year olds are included. In the datasets, they're incorporated into a wider age group of 16-34 year olds, so it's impossible to know how many took part. To the best of my knowledge, EU citizens are not excluded and are grouped within a wider 'born outside Scotland and England' category.

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    2. Thanks for the clarification.

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  5. James what was the response for these questions from Remain voters? Might be a pointer as to how they could react if the UK leaves the EU at the end of this year without a deal.

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    Replies
    1. pretty sure they'll publish the full data tables once all questions are released

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    2. Thepnr: The figures for Remain voters only are...

      Boris Johnson/UK Government question:

      More convinced: 14%
      Less convinced: 68%

      Nicola Sturgeon/Scottish Government question:

      More confident: 67%
      Less confident: 17%

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    3. Thanks James, that's a massive difference. The EU Brexit saga still has a role to play in the Independence debate.

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  6. Once you've seen the light of Independence you can't unsee it

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    Replies
    1. That sounds biblical like a commandment from the book of Genisis.

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    2. Spelling today poor idiot boy - 'Genesis'

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    3. And he thought that Charles II was defeated at the Boyne.

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    4. Yes. He's an Orange/Yoon ignoramus. Annoying but actually a good example of the shite they attract to their bankrupt cause

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  7. Very informative poll results. See what clear questions can reveal? Glad I donated.

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  8. A stunning result there. (Which can only give our resident clown even more of a horrible sinking feeling...)

    These results of yesterday and today only reinforce my longstanding conviction that there's a latent majority of support for independence that's just crying out to be tapped by a confident and proactive leadership at a well-chosen moment, a moment that has not come yet but must now not be long in coming (and if necessary, to hell with waiting for the 60-percenters)...

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    Replies
    1. There aren't any 60-percenters, that was just the target to be aimed at, nobody expects to hit double top every time but you aim at it, and the FMs strategy of waiting till folk start demanding has clearly worked

      Don't read too much into what the mental flying man writes about the FM he has his own agenda and is getting well paid for it, why do you think nobody in the movement's talking to the mutt

      Everything's fine and coming along at just the right pace just like she said it would, and it's pissing off all the detractors and Unionists

      She always said she wanted to win a referendum not just hold one

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    2. Nah, all your EU lot have left and the tens of thousands of islamists never arrived. The Brit Scots are on the ascendancy. We are people.

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    3. You are people clutching at straws.

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    4. "There aren't any 60-percenters..." Whit? You might wish us to believe that, but unfortunately the mediasphere is full of quotes from Pete Wishart alone confuting you there.

      I'm not one of those loose cannons (real or fake) who supposedly can't abide the SNP unless they magic up a referendum in the next millisecond, and of course we do want to win the next plebiscite and not merely hold it, but that phrase is oft times just a fig leaf - another tell - for those who seem perfectly willing to wait indefinitely for the second coming.

      Never mind the Man from Bath, it's this evident lack of self-confidence among some that is fuelling a growing sense of unease in the indy movement about an apparent unwillingness to move decisively forward, even when the situation is abundantly ripe for advancement.

      Set whatever percentage figure of support you like, what is already abundantly clear - reinforced by polls like this - is that it will take the actual existence of a plebiscite campaign to shift the numbers significantly, and waiting for the numbers to significantly improve before taking action is a recipe for stagnation and failure.

      That's the issue you really need to recognise. This is not about Nicola, it's about the attitude of supporters like you. Good judgement and good timing are essential, of course, I do agree - and right now is manifestly not the time - but equally you will never convince doubters if you don't appear to believe enough in yourself and your fellow citizens to be willing to ver put this crucial issue to the test without guarantee. Because there never will be sufficient guarantee.

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  9. What would I answer if it made no difference? I've always wanted Indy, and individual acts of government make no difference to my politics.

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    Replies
    1. You would answer "Don't Know/Not Sure", as roughly one-fifth of respondents did on each question.

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  10. The 2014 Referendum seemed to focus on the risks of independence and not on the risks of being in the union. However given what has happened since September 2014 the risks of being in the union would be the Achilles heel for the no side in the next referendum.

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    Replies
    1. A very good point Marcia and one I'll keep in mind when talking to those yet to be won over.

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  11. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  12. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  13. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  14. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  15. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  16. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  17. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  18. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  19. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  20. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  21. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  22. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  23. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  24. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  25. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  26. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  27. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  28. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  29. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  30. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  31. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  32. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  33. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  34. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  35. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  36. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  37. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  38. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  39. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  40. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  41. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  42. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  43. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  44. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  45. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  46. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  47. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  48. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  49. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  50. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  51. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
  52. We will not be silenced by racists, Black Lives Matter.

    Remember George Floyd.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You will not be silenced in an Independent Scotland.

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    2. Might be silenced by a spam filter though...

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    3. I thought that was the case but felt i had to say sonething Thanks

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    4. G Floyd, as a career criminal and violent gun-toting scumbag received all the justice he deserved.

      Delete
  53. There's no doubt that the SNP are enjoying a lot of increased support at this time; however, it's a shame nevertheless, that Scottish Independence seems to have gradually disappeared from thier agenda these past few years. I'll probably be vilified for this but I can say now that IF the SNP do NOT make the 2021 Holyrood election a single issue election for independence then they can forget about my vote. They really need a huge kick up the arse.

    ReplyDelete
  54. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52955034

    Coronavirus: Lockdown delay 'cost a lot of lives', says science adviser

    A scientist who advises the government on coronavirus says he wishes the UK had gone into lockdown sooner as the delay had "cost a lot of lives"...

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  55. UK has just 0.8% of the world population, yet 10% of covid deaths. You can understand why Scots think the way they do.

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    Replies
    1. Skier, I do not recall knickerless or any of her cronies demanding an earlier lockdown. Why did knickerless not ban the large gathering of idiots in Glasgow today? She had the powers.

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  56. As someone that has voted SNP for over 40 years, I will spoil my vote at the next opportunity unless I see more desire from the party. I can't believe I am even saying this!

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    Replies
    1. Not believing you as I am reading it.

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    2. Me neither.

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    3. I never spoil my vote. I vote for the Union.

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  57. I don't agree and I suspect the fragrant Morag Kerr would not agree that MadMentalNicky deserves any praise at all. Abandoning the tracing and quarantine scheme, refusing to close the border, quarantine air travellers, allowing the slaughter of pensioners by Yoon care home owners, banning people from outdoor acticities, blocking off car parks and public toilets and removing litter bins, closing recycling centres and reducing bin collections for no reason whatsoever, reducing the number of busses thus forcing people to cram together on their way to work.

    I remember, even if you pretend not to, that sturgeon was given a pat on the head by Michael Gove for being a good little pet and doing exactly what she was told by england.

    The woman isn't even human. On the radio on Friday she said she didn't visit her parents on Saturday as it would have meant not visiting her Sister. Normal people with functioning brains would have visited their parents on Saturday and their Sibling on Sunday. The woman has no idea of normal life or basic human needs and still insists that men can get pregnant. I hate everything about her and just because the alternatives are worse does not mean I will allow them to blackmail me into abusing my vote.

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    Replies
    1. Who is this fragrant Morag Kerr you refer to? Have you ever abused your votE? How did you do that and was it painful.
      You hate EVERYTHING about her, even her shoes and hair? One should never abuse anyone and definately they should not abuse themselves. You wouldn't I know that.

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    2. I can't help but sense a degree of discomfort in you regarding the above polling results.

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    3. I suspect more than just a degree of discomfort.

      Anonymous is absolutley raging that Nicola Sturgeon is actually well thought of by the majority of Scots. Wonder if they'll abuse their vote by scribbling over the candidates names. That'll show Sturgeon right enough LOL

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    4. I do not know anyone in my lodge who likes knickerless. She panders to ethnic minorities like the Irish but has no time for the real Scottish indigenous people.

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    5. Covidia loves eugenics.

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    6. Bårîß MænçoJune 8, 2020 at 10:51 PM

      She looks lìke a silly old tea cup.

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