Monday, June 8, 2020

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll finds that, by a decisive margin, Scottish voters want the SNP and Greens to use an election to seek an outright mandate for independence, if Boris Johnson continues to refuse a Section 30 order

When I asked for your suggestions for questions to add to our crowdfunded Panelbase poll, a number of you wanted me to find out whether the public were in favour of the so-called "Plan B" of using the 2021 Holyrood election to seek an outright mandate for independence, if the Tory government continues to refuse to grant a Section 30 order. I was initially reluctant to ask a question along those lines, because it seemed to me that the pandemic makes the 2021 timing look a lot more ambitious than was previously the case. But it then struck me that it would be possible to ask a question about the general principle of using an election as a de facto referendum, without specifying any date. So it could be the 2021 election, or it could be another scheduled election, or it could even be an early Holyrood election held midway through the 2021-26 parliamentary term. (Nicola Sturgeon doesn't literally have the power to "call" an early election, but under the rules it probably wouldn't be too difficult to bring one about.)

Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, 1st-5th June 2020:

If Boris Johnson and the UK Government manage to block an independence referendum, do you think that pro-independence parties such as the SNP and the Greens should consider including an outright promise of independence in their manifestos for a future election, to give people an opportunity to vote for or against the idea?

Yes 49%
No 29%

With Don't Knows excluded, it's roughly...

Yes 63%
No 37%

That's a much more emphatic result than I expected. The five key groups that are all in favour of the proposal are SNP voters (Yes 80%, No 4%), Green voters (Yes 61%, No 29%), independence supporters (Yes 86%, No 1%), Remain voters (Yes 57%, No 21%) and most intriguingly of all Labour voters (Yes 45%, No 35%).

You might remember that our earlier poll in January also found clear public support for the idea of the Scottish Parliament going ahead and legislating for a consultative referendum in the absence of a Section 30 order, and allowing the courts to decide whether it can take place. So we now have polling evidence that voters support both of the two main options for circumventing a Westminster veto - which suggests to me that the wider population basically agrees with the Yes movement that Scotland must have the ability to make a choice on independence and that a "no" from Boris Johnson cannot and must not be the end of the matter. It also suggests that any fears the SNP leadership may harbour about a public backlash if they seek an independence mandate by an 'alternative' means are probably not well-founded. As long as the public understand that this is about facilitating a democratic choice, it looks like voters will be on board.

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UPDATE: I've just caught up with Keith Brown's response to this poll, which I think people will find frustrating, because it doesn't actually engage with the 'Plan B' idea, but nevertheless tries to shut it down in an indirect way that involves a number of red herrings -

"The process by which we choose Scotland’s future must be capable of actually achieving independence. It must allow majority support to be expressed clearly and unambiguously. It must be legal. And it must have the recognition of the international community."

The subtext is that using an election to seek an outright mandate for independence is 'not legal', but that's quite plainly untrue.  In fact it's exactly what the SNP did in every general election until the 1990s.  What would be illegal, at least as far as UK domestic law is concerned, is a unilateral declaration of independence - but that's categorically not what we're talking about here.  We're talking about a method of securing a mandate.  It's up to the UK government to decide whether to respect that mandate - if they do, there would be no question that the independence process would have international recognition.  If they don't, they would come under considerable pressure, both domestically and internationally, to negotiate with the Scottish Government to find a resolution.

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There are a couple more questions to come from the poll. To be the first to know when they're released, you can follow me on Twitter HERE. You can also read my piece in The National about last night's Holyrood voting intention results HERE.

66 comments:

  1. SNP 100% need to go into election 2021 its for indyref2

    any watering down, disaster awaits

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  2. On forcing an extraordinary general election, my understanding is that just by changing the standing orders on the election of an FM, the Parliament could ensure that no minority party could fill a vacant FM post with one of their own - thus ensuring an election.

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  3. Sounds like the SNP have already decided on that one James. It does highlight the need to put pressure on them. If we give them another majority at Holyrood and they do more can kicking. Then it honestly might be the end of independence for a decade.

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    1. The SNP leadership may have reached their own view on the subject - that is not the same thing as "the SNP have already decided on that one James". There is an ongoing internal debate within the party, and many SNP members will take note of the fact that the general public are sympathetic to the idea.

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    2. Aye but Stuart Campbell says

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  4. Good to see the question asked and answered.

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    1. Jill Pennington-DeansJune 8, 2020 at 11:17 PM

      My uncle Slarvenjo always used to say, Stay low but don't go slow. I never had a clue what he meant but the only times I ever saw him was when he was allowed out under Section 5.2b regulations.

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  5. Delighted you asked the question James and ecstatic that YES shows 63% !

    It certainly slam-dunks HQ SNP talk of "gradualism" (Ramsay McDonald Home Rule patter 1924 !), "This is a constitutional matter " (Wot Constitution !?) and "legal" (under English law !?).

    Saor Alba.

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  6. Gradualism is a polite version of inertia. Inertia becomes a bad habit , if left to fester.

    I remember being unemployed for a long time. Eventually I lost my drive and inertia set in. The confidence to take on the world was scary. You go into your shell and your confidence ebbs away.

    It's only when you leave that chapter behind, that you realise how awful it was. You realise that fear was holding you back!

    I think fear has set in at the heart of the SNP. They are so terrified of failure that it's easier for them to do nothing.

    Someone needs to shake the tree!

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    1. Aye!! I have been in that depressing soulless dark place.

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  7. RevStu (assuming it was actually you and not your prolific impersonator): I'm more than happy to have a grown-up conversation with you at any time about my choice of poll questions, and indeed about your own. But, alas, your comment was not the start of a grown-up conversation. It was the rant of a toddler.

    Deleted.

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    1. Aaaaaaand again. Maybe come back when you're a little less tired and emotional.

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    2. That's the Rev (Rev?) Stu who bans 99% of people who don't agree with him, lol. Campbell who clearly no longer supports independence and dredges up any old issue (Bills / Laws that can be amended AFTER we get our Independence) to hammer Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP including suggesting that JKR may go to prison for 7 years for inciting hatred. Utter nonsense and yet some on his site are falling for it. The main issue here is that Stu Campbell is using his site to whip up hatred against Nicola Sturgeon and may end up in prison. He says, ''Tough. Until we recognise and acknowledge the problem (Nicola Sturgeon) we’ll never fix it.'' Some of us do recognise the ''problem'' and that's Campbell himself. Just as we are getting some good news Campbell is on all out attack against the latest polling figures. Take the blinkers off and ask yourself WHY.

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    3. Anonymous - on the other hand the Wee Blue Book was widely recognised as being effective and you have to ask yourself what the percentage would have been for the first Indy Ref without his efforts. 44.7% YES? Or less than 40% and potentially dead for a decade or more?

      And the very day after the Ref it was on Wings that a whole load of lost bewildered people formed the plan top get rid of every unionist politician in Scotland, and the YES movements regained contact, abandonded and not even thanked by the official YES Scotland site and paid mercenaries. Clydebank YES was the one that had a databse.

      So without Wings would 2016 have resulted in 56 SNP MPs and 1 each of the rag-tag bobtail unionist parties? It was a hub, when the official YES and the SNP had given up and disappeared down ratholes and pulled the sods of earth over behind them.

      So whatever Wings is now, it's unlikely the cause of Indy would be as far advanced, and it's almost certain the SNP would not have such support - something very few of them have ever acjnowledged.

      And yes, I too am blocked from Wings for disagreeing with its owner, one of many. Shrug.

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    4. 2015, ho hum for an edit!

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    5. Actually, neither of us "know", dear heart. The idea that I was suggesting that the word "consider" should never, ever be used under any circumstances or in any context is risible, and, well, worthy of you.

      But even if there had been something to "know', I'm not sure that would have been enough for you, would it, petal? You crave an audience, and always will.

      Take your infantile insults and name-calling elsewhere, there's a good chap. I gather you may have your own website or something.

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    6. Atop being such a prick and try to remember when you used to do sensible analysis.

      We want them to consider doing something. MadmentalNicky considers it and tells us to bugger off. Then what?

      And UDI is not illegal under UK law. There is no such thing as UK law, only Scottish Law and English law. Is Scottish Independence illegal under Scottish Law? Think carefully before answering.

      Consider yourself an arse, consider yourself something objectionable!

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  8. I might have been a "don't know" until I saw Keith Brown's pathetic Chamberlain response "peace in our Union times". I do believe the S30 is the best route but it increasingly looks as though that's not going to happen, and that is not good enough. Nor is it good enough jelly-wibbling around for another 5 years while bums are being kept warm on seats they won't deserve.

    Keith Brown has disappeared for months, only appearing to pooh-pooh any idea of a stronger push for Independence. Angus Robertson uses his column in The National to, ummm, waffle on about nothing to do with independence, or indeed "Lack of Progress Scotland". Look at the last 4 articles. Do you see him telling us how he's working flat out towards Independence? No, me neither.

    https://www.thenational.scot/author/profile/294318.Angus_Robertson/

    They need to move over and let real Indy supporters take over.

    I'm now a definite for both Plan A and Plan B. And even considering plan C, whatever that will be. My vote is not there to give people a high wage and a lifelong siesta in Holyrood.

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  9. The Scottish nat si party supported the Tories in bringing down Labour 1979. They did not care about unemployment and inertia just an opportunity for themselves. Linwood, Bathgate, Britoil no more was the legacy of the Nat sis. The Nat sis sold their own dream to capitalism and continue today to fill their pockets. It usually takes a few generations for history to catch up on the guilty.

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    1. Never was a truer word said in that last sentence of yours, Garrulous Clown. Except as we all know, it's the lesson that North British Labour haven't learnt. Even now. (Not that you really care anyway, Faragista.)

      The rest of your wittering is the usual mendatious bollocks, alas.

      (How's that horrible sinking feeling coming along, BTW? Yes, keep on "whistling Dixie" and pi**ing into the wind, but neither will help, as I think you're already finding...)

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    2. Scots dumped the SNP and gave Labour a landslide 44 MPs in 1979 just as you wanted you imbecile.

      It was you that wanted the SNP out.

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    3. Less of your imbecile nonsense Nat si boy. There was a backlash against the Nat sis in 79 because they abandoned the Scottish (and English) working class by helping bring down the Callaghan Gov.The Tories had made it well known that the Trade Unions would be attacked and the public services. You must have been hanging out of your pram in those days waving your yellow flag.

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    4. I don't understand. Are you saying you supported the SNP back then?

      I thought you wanted them ousted to be replaced by Scots Labour MPs. Which is what happened in the 1979 election, ergo you got what you wanted.

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    5. You are talking mince again Skier. I wanted a British Labour Gov not the Tartan or Blue Tories.

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    6. This is what mean; you openly admit you wanted a GE in 1979 so you could get a Labour government.

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  10. Move on, old man

    You auld yoon's are obsessed with ancient history!

    1690 & 1966 n all that!

    Scotland's moved on .. no need for an English party, anymore ..

    They teach Scottish history in schools now..

    The younger generation are craving independence ..

    Your teas oot!


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  11. I've always had a feeling it was never going to be Plan A or Plan B. But, as it Keith Brown's intervention, well, this indicates there is indeed a Plan. Looks like we are going to have to be kept in the dark about it. Of course I am in the dark like everyone else. Logically, the SNP cannot realistically pull off independence avoidance beyond 2021 even with the Covid crisis. It could well mean the end of the SNP, even though, as a National Devolved Government, they have proven to be particularly good for Scotland.

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  12. Des B 06:37.

    Suspect you're right Des. The head of steam is certainly building. Worst case scenario - if SNP leadership decides not to use it, it will in effect, lose it as the movement will fracture and support will start to drift away. The great defenders of democracy at w/minster will start to neuter the devolution settlement as well.

    We wont get away clean even if the party tops do decide to try. This may be their real doubt - how resolute is our support if a straight, democratic vote for indy meets an authoritarian brick wall ? If we are going to have to go down that road then people have to be helped to understand it in advance !

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  13. At some point this is all going to come to a head. The current inertia will not be tolerated much longer. The Covid -19 pandemic has bought Nicola more time. No one would blame her for putting the referendum on the back burner during the crisis. She was right to do so.

    However we all know that the Referendum was never going to happen this year anyway. So that's why it's convenient to put it on hold for Nicola. She painted herself into a corner, we all know that.

    The mistake she is making is allowing Boris to continue with Brexit,while putting nothing in place for Scotland to make it's choice. The Tories don't give a fig about public opinion on Brexit in the current crisis. So does she seriously think they will care a jot about indi ref 2 being on hold!

    I think that indy ref 2 should be all over the ballot paper on the next election. The SNP wll probably put it 4th as an aspiration. There is a pattern developing , where the SNP just fill in the gaps between elections. Nothing happens in the white space between elections.

    So there strategy will be to try and get over the line in May 2021 , yet again! Beyond that there is an absolute vacum.

    I can't see Nicola staying on after 2021. I also think Salmond will be on the scene, and god knows we need him more than ever.

    Big Jock

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    1. Jesus wept.

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    2. ''The Covid -19 pandemic has bought Nicola more time.''

      ''I also think Salmond will be on the scene, and god knows we need him more than ever.''

      Get real, FGS. Alex Salmond won't be returning to front line Scottish politics. Didn't you see a recent poll on him? He may have been innocent of criminal acts but he's gone right down in many people's estimation. He's the guy who set the precedence for a Section 30 order and who lost us Indyref1 with his currency crap. Nicola Sturgeon, against all odds, is getting the stats over the line and when we can get out and about we'll help her to win Indyref2.

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    3. Alex Salmond will never be back, stop listening to these clowns on Wings with their court cases agenda, they only want to disrupt and subvert
      Alex Salmond was a great guy but he was also a loser and a dirty old man, even though he wasn't a criminal he was still a bloody nuisance and the Wingsy isn't his best pal and neither is the other one, David Icke's pal, they're in it for the cash

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    4. What's 'dirty' about marrying a woman nearly 2 decades your senior?

      Pretty unusual for men, and suggests it was for love no?

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    5. Lovely friends you've got here JK. Innocent man smeared. Lies about currency. Lies about section 30 orders. I remember Salmond saying we were having a referendum and a majority Yes meant an independent Scotland. No section 30 order was asked for, requested, demanded or deemed to be necessary by anyone in either government.

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  14. at the last Holyrood GE, the SNP won 4 list MSPs from almost 1 million votes, the Greens won 6 list MSPs from 150,000 votes.

    at the next years Holyrood GE, vote Snp 1, Green 2, to decimate the Unionist list MSPs, and give a platform for the Country to move forward to self determination.

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    1. for comparison, the LabCon alliance won 45 list MSPs from their 1 million votes.

      the Greens won 6 list MSPs for 150,000 votes.

      SNP1, Green2 to decimate the Unionist list MSPs.

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  15. The problem with that. Is that I trust the Greens less than the SNP. There will be a new party standing only on the list votes. We need to beat the unionists with their own bear trap!

    Big Jock

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    1. so decimating the Unionist list MSPs is a bad thing, aye ok.

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    2. You don't trust the SNP or the Greens. Who's to say that you'll trust anyone in a new party when you, and more so the MSM, start delving into their backgrounds?

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  16. We really do need a pro indy list party

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    1. We already do. The Scottish Greens. I am one and we are committed to Independence. Also unlike Wings fanboys we have a good track record of constructive work with the best politician in the UK, Nicola Sturgeon.

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    2. There are already like what 5 pro-indy parties that stand on the list?

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    3. I'm saying that we need to pick one, the greens are too hit and miss on policy, ISP seems to be the best to hold SNP on indy, just a thought

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    4. The Wingsy people are after an entirely different agenda that has sod all to do with Independence, don't listen to a word these people's master says

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    5. Then we don't vote for them, the Scottish electorate are possibly the most politically astute in the world

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    6. I agree on the Greens and policy. Hence I've said before an 'ISP' needs a decent manifesto.

      I need to know how they'll be voting on everything over the course of 5 years.

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  17. The comparison has been made between Covid 19 and Chernobyl in respect of its effect on the English state. A hard Brexit will induce further disintegration of the English state. So a possible scenario would be comparable with the Baltic States and the USSR in 1990/91. New leadership possibly under Sunak might view a declaration of Scottish Independence realistically and engage, this would also play to right wing opinion in England which views Scotland as a parasite. EU opinion might also be favourable, recognition would both solve Fishing rights problems and undermine England, a win-win with no downside.

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    1. Now that’s the kind of soothsaying that I like!

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  18. As said before, keep the pressure on. On the current FM especially.

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  19. I am no fan of Wings. However one thing Stu has got right. Is his estimation of Nicola Sturgeon. She is not going to deliver independence. Anyone who thinks she is , needs to take their blinkers off.

    You don't win independence by get an invite to a gentleman's club to sign a please may I be excused form. You have to take the fight to the enemy that is holding your nation back. What Nicola is doing is waiting for the tide to change. It's Inertia. It's the doing nothing strategy.

    Are people on here seriously suggesting that she didn't completely cock up her tactics in delivering indi-ref 2. She told the world it was the Gold Standard. In other words every other route was blocked because she painted herself into the Section 30 corner.

    She has had three mandates to deliver a referendum and 6 years at the top. Salmond had one majority, one mandate and he bloody well made sure he used it . Sink or swim he did what he said he would do.

    As for the dirty old man comments. He was set up by the media and other people in the party with ulterior motives. He was cleared of every charge. He is no Angel, but is he any different to 80% of politicians? To disregard everything he achieved is absolutely bat shit crazy!

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    1. Independence is the SNPs sole reason for standing for both parliaments. There seems to be a lot of unionist 5th columnist infiltration.

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  20. James, your update conclusions are spot on. Only Keith Brown can say why he said what he did. But "frustrating" it certainly was. I'd add, deplorable.

    What the hell is happening inside the SNP leadership?! Does it need Alex Salmond going public about his court case in order for us all to know?

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    1. Yes, yes it does. When sturgeon supported evans after her witch hunt failed, then extended her contract it may have given you a clue as to her feelings on this matter.

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  21. I don't understand the question that was asked. The majority of respondents want the SNP and the Greens to suddenly change into a single-issue party like Ukip?

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  22. GWC, are 1/3 of the Welsh anti-English?

    Yougov Welsh indy intention:
    32% Yes
    68% No

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  23. Today Stuart Campbell is having a meltdown because he's rapidly losing his messiah reputation and being seen for what he is, just another money making Nigel Farage

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    1. Is that you Mikeysmallpenis? Or is it one of sturgones little paedophiles? Maybe Alyn or his bumboy?

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  24. 14 Indy ref,
    15 UK GE,
    16 EU Ref,
    17 UK GE,
    19 UK GE,
    20 Covid-19,
    No space for an Indie campaign in the last 6 years, Nicola has played it right, in the next couple of years after the effects of Brexshit become clear, will be the right time, IMHO.

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  25. Why is legal for someone to go into a booth and mark X on piece of paper for a Westminster election and the Tories get elected on only 23% of the public vote an govern all four nation when three of the nation didn't vote for them in the first place. And then Mr Brown goes on to say "Scotland’s future must be capable of actually achieving independence" how can this be done when its being denied to the Scots to choose, and then he goes on to say "And it must have the recognition of the international community" If Scotland is a country now and was a country before the formation of England and Britain then why? do we need to be a country again and how many times can a country become a country and with regards to Independence I never ever thought a vote for Independence was the right thing to say after all we are Independent and have our own flag to prove it all the Scots are really asking for is the occupation of Scotland to end and for the English forces to leave under the butchers apron, the trouble is Scotland puts 200billion into the English banks and our energy, electric and gas & oil and land resources, fishers, exports and much more if I was PM I would tell the Scots to F*ck off your not having a referendum the trouble is a section 30 order will never be grant and the question is what are we going to do if the SNP are elected again for another five years and decided that a section 30 order is the only option, well this does not sit well with me at all.

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    1. It is legal because it is the law. Hope that gives you satisfaction. The banks are international and not English.

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  26. If it's made clear Holyrood 2021 is a de facto Indy referendum. Then it doesn't matter what the turnout is. It's up to all sides to fight it. If the unionist don't turn out then it's irrelevant.

    I actually think winning an election based on independence is the simplest way to demonstrate support. A confirmatory referendum could be done shortly after.

    Keith Brown is talking out of his arse.

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