Thursday, June 11, 2020

In numbers: the year-on-year increase in support for independence

Let's return briefly to the false claim that was made the other day that public opinion on independence hasn't budged for years.  It's probably best to demonstrate in precise terms why that isn't true, before any myth is allowed to take root.  I've calculated yearly averages for all independence polls in 2018, 2019, and 2020 to date.  As you can see, there has been a clear increase in the Yes vote year on year.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

2018:

Yes 45.5%
No 54.5%

2019:

Yes 48.5%
No 51.5%

2020:

Yes 50.4%
No 49.6%

The only polls I've excluded are the notorious Scotland in Union propaganda polls that were sometimes portrayed in the media as "independence polls", but in fact were nothing of the sort, because independence wasn't even mentioned in the question.  On the other hand, I've included the YouGov / Hanbury poll from earlier this year, which used a non-standard question but with neutral wording.  (If that poll is excluded, the Yes vote for 2020 is even higher.)

So if there has been a gradual increase for Yes, why is it possible to dredge up headlines from past years about Yes being in the lead?  Basically there were a couple of previous purple patches where Yes appeared to be ahead - one was just after the 2014 indyref, when the positivity of the campaign was still fresh in people's minds and when David Cameron appeared set to betray The Vow.  The second was just after the EU referendum, but it didn't last long at all.  There was then a prolonged slump in 2017 and 2018 when both YouGov and Panelbase were consistently showing Yes hovering somewhere between 43% and 45%.  Self-evidently, the situation has improved markedly since those days.

Outside of the two previous purple patches, there has also been the odd individual poll from Ipsos-Mori showing a Yes lead out of the blue.  It's probably no coincidence that Ipsos-Mori are the only firm that don't weight by past vote - although whether that makes them more accurate or less accurate is open for debate.

56 comments:

  1. Thanks for this careful and considered objective analysis. You are right to publish this to counteract the selective misuse of data by blogs, purporting to be pro-independence, but who outdoing the BBC, Herald Scotsman and the rest of the mainstream media in the vitriol directed at the Scottish Government.

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  2. The indications are that the YES vote looks to be solid and considered by people now and not just flash in the pan emotional heart leap stuff borne out of excitement at the idea

    Nicola Sturgeon has done well, her style doesn't suit some but there's no denying her dogged determination to grind out the result with hard work and a confident performance showing the people of Scotland what's possible

    And she's done it all despite being a British spy, an MI6 plant, and every other name the eejits can come up with to call her

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    1. She's a woman who laments the name of the party she leads, who had her former leader put through a kangaroo court and still lies about her part in that sordid business.
      She's a woman who shat it when the previous worst PM ever smacked down her Section 30 request.
      She's a woman who is forcing through the insane GRA reforms, during this all consuming epidemic and right as the entire population are being Peak Transed by the JK Plagiarist affair.

      She's the woman who insisted we wouldn't be dragged out of the EU then cuddled up to a War Criminal and tried to overturn the democratic vote of the english. Wasting 4 years while Scotland burned.

      If she's not an MI5 sleeper then she's doing a very good impersonation of one.

      Please to be explaining why 48% of the population still prefer Boris in charge of Scotland when they are being governed by a true goddess?

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    2. Whatever medication you are on - double the dose. You need to be sectioned.

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    3. Oh dear, Anon the Ranter, you should hear yersel'. The progress achieved over the last few years may be more turbulent and less emphatic than many of us might wish, but it in no way justifies your intemperate and absurdly OTT outburst. It's so OTT it's frankly risible. A veritable self-caricature.

      Given the current crisis, there's clearly not a leader who is more suited to present circumstances than our current FM. Just ask Sarah Smith or almost any churnalist from the BritNat press, who by their words and deeds clearly recognise it, even if you don't (or won't).

      Doesn't it give you even the slightest qualm to find yourself in the miserable company of the Not-Ruth-Davidson Rentamoan Poodle Party? Or is that in fact your real home and you're just on here to take the piss...?

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    4. 'Kangaroo Court'

      Are you disputing the outcome of the trial? Seemed very fair to me.

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    5. Another (10:53) straight from the brainwashing WoS site.

      We see that Nicola Sturgeon's popularity is rising as is support for Independence and yet if you care to bore yourself to death and scrutinise the posts on Wings you'll find that over 90% of the comments are anti-Nicola Sturgeon. That doesn't equate to the reality here in Scotland or England for that matter, so who are these people, the majority of posters on Wings now? More to the point what is their objective in trying to get rid of Nicola Sturgeon, the greatest threat to the Union, and who are many of them working for?

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    6. She's not an MI5 sleeper, she's a CIA sleeper.

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    7. Given that the attacks on First Minister Sturgeon go hand-in-hand with calls for a return of Alex Salmond, I'd say the answer is quite simple: misogyny.

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  3. The reforms are on hold.
    Salmond said he'd wish the SNP had been called the Scottish Democratic Party. Not an issue for me.

    Anonomous, Are you a Unionist plant?
    Ye need tae get oot mair. Twice a day, but dinnae go mair than 5 mile.
    Nicola will keep ye right.

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    Replies
    1. It has taken the Great Eck a long time to say that. What he meant to say was that if we do get independence then we do not need to disband. We can carry on and rule like Hungary.

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    2. When is the Brexit Party disbanding?

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    3. There isnae a Brexit Party ya Jock mug.

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    4. Unfortunately, you're wrong.

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  4. There are two ways to end colonial rule in Scotland. Violent insurrection or through the ballot box (referendum or manifesto commitment). I prefer the ballot box.
    I say "colonial rule": it wasn't always so, but in the last 60-70 years things have changed for Scotland, within the UK, and we are now regarded as the Irish were, a century ago.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ScottytheScotinScotlandJune 13, 2020 at 11:26 AM

      Anonymous - "it wasn't always so" - care to provide your reasoning evidence for this statement because I think you are wrong. Scotland like Wales and Ireland were the first colonies.

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  5. Support for independence is growing - that's the point !

    The long rant (10:53) and short mumble (11:57), that doesn't actually make sense, above mean nothing. The panic of losers.

    Keep pushing everyone - 2021 is the year of opportunity - the rest is dross.

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    Replies
    1. Absolutely. We need to be ready for when politics returns to normal to positively and compassionately show that independence is the way forward.

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  6. The loonies are reading the bought and paid for Wingsy George Galloway Nigel Farage garbage, they're even talking about a UKIP style party for Scotland now with guess who as their dear leader

    Bringing Alex Salmond back is like hoping Ally McCoist might have another goal in him, they're round the bend those Wangers

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  7. James, I'd be intrigued to see the average figures including "Don't Know's", to see if there is any patterns there too.

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  8. There's a new Youguv poll on Scottish Independence where they didn't even ask the question
    So they'll have the desired result they want in that to be aired on every media platform informing us we don't want Independence

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  9. GPD down 20.4% in April
    CBI saying no deal would be a major blow to recovery
    The only way forward out of this mess is for Scotland to become Independent as soon as possible.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Leaveb the UK on the 31st December 2020 at IIPM.

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    Replies
    1. You Nat si fanatics are scraping the fertiliser barrel. If you want an uncivil war then try and leave the democratic process. Personally I would look forward to it.

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    2. Care to expand on that last sentence, Clown? Is that possibly an incitement to violence? I have been putting you down as an idiot Kipper with fake Labour sympathies, but now I'm beginning to suss that you have Orangist connections. Which would certainly explain the frequency and vehemenence of your verbal excretions. What a relic.

      You're history, long past your sell-by date, and you know it.

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    3. Yes I can expand with laughter because you replied. And yes I would use force against Nazis, Commies and anti democratic forces. Now go and clean your bed stains.

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    4. Take a look again at the polls, Garrulous. We won't need your empty threats of violence, we're going to vote you into history.

      And you know it, as each of your filthy utterances testifies. You have nothing to offer but bile and negativity, and the whole world is noticing.

      You're on a road to nowhere, and you just can't help yourself from signalling it. We're going to have the last laugh, joker.

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    5. The whole World listens to GWC. Sounds fine to me. Vote to remain if the vote ever happens folk.

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  11. Dead right ally. No deal is the last 'wait for'.
    As soon as we can do some politics again it's time for all YES stalls to be out, AUOB to pull out the stops and all SNP branches to make sure that the leadership hears that next year is THE year!

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  12. It's so calm listening to Cassic FM on a Friday evening waiting for the Irish some Scots Nat sis to say anything sensible, just anything, please.

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    Replies
    1. Speak English or leave the country

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  13. In 2003 the Orange Lodge issued a statement which was placed in newspapers reading *If Scotland becomes an Independent country the Orange Order will become a para military organisation*
    Following that statement there was no Police investigation and no charges were made against anyone in the Orange Order
    The Duke of Kent is the Worshipful Grand Master of the Orange Order

    The Labour party were in charge at that time working for their Conservative bosses in London

    Such a statement could not happen today as Police Scotland would be instructed to investigate and bring to justice anyone involved as a terrorist

    It is kinda funny though picturing all these fat toothless drunks with the cracks of their arses hanging out their trousers threatening anyone with their flutes and Guy Fawkes bangers

    The SNP are in charge now and nobody from any side will get away with garbage talk like that and once Scotland is Independent who's going to provide insurance to the Orange Lodge then, certainly not the wee offshore Jersey bank insurance, they'll have had their chips

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    Replies
    1. The Duke of Kent has been the Grand Master of the United Grand Lodge of England (freemasonry).

      The Grand Orange Lodge of Scotland is a separate organisation entirely and who's self defined purpose is to promote Protestantism, Britishness and unionism.

      Pedantic, but there is a difference.

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    2. I know you Nat sis make a career of peddling lies. That one takes the Garibaldi.

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    3. The Duke of Kent holds both titles

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  14. I did a previous calculation based on the amount of of deaths per year, the make up of those deaths by age, the number of young people entering the electorate with the post Indy reff poll by age. I thought that there would be an additional net growth of 35k votes per year in favour of Yes. Not quite scientific however it looks like there is an additional 200k who are now yes since six years ago. Could demographics be the reason?

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    Replies
    1. That sounds plausible. Also the National which we didn't have and a more organised structure of YES groups.
      The Indy marches must be firming up support too. All good.

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    2. I wasn't politically active in 2014, so voted for it but didn't campaign.

      Next time I will. The Yes team only gets bigger.

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    3. One additional numpti.

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    4. Corona's obviously helped.

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  15. The Tories have the BBC in Scotland and they will be ordered to fill the airwaves with anti Independence propaganda to an even greater degree than they did last time

    If there's to be a referendum Nicola Sturgeon must not make the mistakes Alex Salmond did and allow Westminster any involvement whatsoever, the UN rules of referendums clearly stste the country being seceded from must have no involvement in such referendums, it is a matter for the country seceding, Alex Salmond allowed the BBC to set the entire agenda to suit the Unionists argument and threw away a 6 point lead that caused us to lose the entire thing by 10%

    Nicola Sturgeon is smarter than Salmond but on this she must plant her feet and not allow half the population of England traipsing into Scotland all over our TV screens telling us what to do in our own referendum with our own politics

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    Replies
    1. ScottytheScotinScotlandJune 13, 2020 at 11:19 AM

      It happened that way because Scotland is a colony and it will happen that way again in the future because Scotland is a colony. Anonymous - you do not state how Salmond should have stopped it and you do not say how Sturgeon will stop it. Just a cheap shot against Salmond with no positive suggestions as to how to stop it happening.

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    2. The law is how Salmond could have stopped it, International law, he didn't, he allowed it and participated in it, now take a guess why and maybe you'll learn to understand who it is who really wants Independence for Scotland

      Stop reading stupid arseholes like Stuart Campbell the self promoting liar who's about to find himself in court again over his latest blog lying about the ring fenced Independence fund he claimed the SNP had spent

      He's a liar, but he knows like his mates Farage and Galloway there are always mugs out there who'll believe the easy to believe crap they pour out

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    3. 28 million English traiping into Scotland that will not help social distancing although it would give a major boost to our tourist industry. I suspect most English would be glad to hear the end of the moaning hard done tae Nat sis. Give them the vote and you fash are on a winner.

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    4. Erm, the English chickened out of a vote (Section 30).

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    5. ScottytheScotinScotlandJune 13, 2020 at 6:55 PM

      Anonymous 1.35pm - sadly you become abusive. A bit like GWC. International law - that's a joke - just like your comment. Why do you bring Campbell in to it. I think for myself - unlike you. The Scot gov helps out the MSM with funds and you are saying that they will turn to international law to prevent them getting involved. There has been nothing to stop Nicola Strurgeon doing what you say for the last 5 years.

      I know one thing about who wants independence and it ain't you.

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    6. Cardinal John Henry NewmanJune 13, 2020 at 10:16 PM

      Skier, you were my best boy, lovely lips.

      Delete
  16. Yes Corona and the Spreaders For Yes campaign must be very happy.

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    1. Oh Mrs Gorly-Webb how is your garden. Have you planted your Mimulus yet. Oooh I hope do. It will give you a hobby. Better than rubbing butter over your legs. Weirdly.

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  17. Wee Eck refused to debate with Galloway, Knickerless would refuse as the Gorgeous one would humiliate them politically as both do not want to be held to account.

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    1. Mrs Enid ZurbavcekJune 13, 2020 at 7:47 PM

      Would Galloway dress as a cat?

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    2. Probably would when dealing with two pussies.

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  18. George Galloway is more Irish than me.

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    Replies
    1. Galloway was born in Dundee and that makes him Scottish.He was an active trade unionist. You do not know where you were born.

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