Saturday, March 14, 2020

Don't follow the herd, Nicola, and don't let's "take it on the chin" - untold numbers of lives will be needlessly lost unless we radically change course and move into line with the WHO's recommendations

Here's a thread from Twitter that destroys the myth that the UK government are somehow just "following the science" with their insane plan to deliberately allow 60%+ of the public to be infected with a virus that has a reported mortality rate of 1-2%. It's written by Anthony Costello, a British former director of the World Health Organization, and it makes plain what has already become frighteningly clear to so many people over recent days - that the UK, and the UK alone, is ignoring the WHO's recommendations and is hellbent on letting the virus spread at the cost of heaven knows how many lives. Costello clearly doesn't think the strategy will 'work', even on its own warped terms, and understandably feels that the huge loss of life will be ethically hard to justify. I think we all know how hard it is for the Scottish government to move out of lockstep with London in a time of crisis such as this, but let's not mince words - it's simply got to be done, and it's got to be done quickly. If we don't change course and move into line with the WHO's advice, we'll be sleepwalking into catastrophe. This would be a man-made tragedy of unimaginable scale that would haunt Scotland's collective memory for decades to come.

(Note: I've copied and pasted the tweets below, because embedding a full thread is a bit tricky. You can see it in its original form HERE.)

"Unlike all other countries, the UK strategy aims to build herd immunity by allowing the steady spread of #COVID19. The government argue it will block a second peak in several months time. Here are EIGHT questions about this HERD IMMUNITY strategy: 

1. Will it impair efforts to restrict the immediate epidemic, and cause more infections and deaths in the near term? Evidence suggests people shed virus early, and those without symptoms may cause substantial spread...
...this argues for policies against mass gatherings, for school closures, and for strict national and local measures for social distancing. 


2. Will it weaken containment systems (testing, screening, radiography, isolation)? China quickly built a robust nation-wide system of mobilised communities/workers for identifying cases promptly, isolating contacts + treating vulnerable people promptly to contain the outbreak. 


3. Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses.


4. Doesn’t this herd immunity strategy conflict with WHO Policy? After the announcement of this being a pandemic, Dr Tedros, Director General WHO, said “The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.” 


5. Shouldn’t we wait to see the China situation? They've contained the epidemic after 7 weeks of intense national effort. Will their strengthened systems not contain outbreaks quickly? What is their herd immunity? We don’t have serology available yet? It might be substantial. 


6. Without an all-out national mobilisation plan for social distancing, are the UK government behavioural and nudge strategies really evidence-based to flatten the peak? Or simply based on models? 


7. On the precautionary principle shouldn’t we go all-out to snuff this UK epidemic out, with national mobilisation at all levels, using all possible preventive measures (whether evidence is strong, uncertain or weak) and worry about herd immunity when we have more evidence? 


8. Vaccines are a safer way to develop herd immunity, without the risks associated with the disease itself. Is it ethical to adopt a policy that threatens immediate casualties on the basis of an uncertain future benefit?"

103 comments:

  1. I was holding off posting about this but I'm in full agreement with your concern James. Just what makes the UK so different to all of our near neighbours? Do our scientific advisors know something that other scientists around the world don't? Somehow I doubt it.

    I'm working in a 'special' school, with a high proportion of extremely vulnerable kids. If the UK government are determined to just let the virus spread in some potentially misguided attempt to develop 'herd immunity' then there is a very high chance of we'll lose some pupils. That's just not acceptable!

    I know some parents are already getting very worried. I hope the parents of the more vulnerable ones will, despite the huge strain it will place on them, will withdraw thier kids from school. I hope the Scottish Government will look around and join our European neighbours in taking decisive action rather than following the bumbling fool in No10.

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    Replies
    1. Agreed. Parents unilaterally withdrawing children from schools in sufficient numbers could probably force the government's hand and lead to school closures.

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    2. Or teachers going "cough cough"... sorry but I need to self isolate. I won't, not yet, but it's tempting. If I do then I'll be down 2 days pay as although I work 5 days a week my contract is for 3 and the other 2 are on a supply basis. Luckily monetary considerations won't be a factor in any decision for me.

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    3. I have heard from a relative who is a teacher that they are currently frantically preparing to work from home and schools will close either from friday or from Easterbreak. (Working from home is not teaching from home, but working on other administrative tasks which teachers do). Thogh this is one region of Scotland I would think plans will be coordinated across Scotland to do this.



      Likewise I'm aware of planning to work from home for other public sector staff who can is going ahead.

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    4. My wife, who works in a Secondary school has been asked to start looking at ways the school can use thier available technologies to allow teacher to provide work to the kids if the school closes. This will not be in place effectively by the end of this week that's for sure.

      I asked at the staff meeting at my school on Wed if and spécial provision' was being considered from upon high for schools like ours. The answer from the depute was, as expected, no, not that they are aware of. One thing for sure, we'll struggle to provide work for our pupils at home as the vast majority just won't be able to cope with it.

      I do wonder if they do close some schools whether staff will be asked to cover absences at other local schools.

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  2. Frank, I apologise, because I'm sure you posted in good faith, but this is really important stuff and I can't allow people to be misled into thinking that the government is "following the science", because it quite simply isn't. The UK Chief Scientific Adviser and the UK Chief Medical Officer are totally out of step with international scientific opinion and with the WHO. By going along with this plan of theirs, we are not "listening to science", we're listening to a handful of individual scientists who think they know better than their counterparts in all other countries.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. I am going to be pedantic James and point out there is no 'UK CMO'. There is Chief Medical Officer for England who is Chief Medical Adviser to the UK government. However, he is only CMO for England, not the UK. Same for the Chief Science Officer for England; they likewise are CSA to the UK government.

      It's an important distinction in the circumstances, and hence the '4 nation' supposed approach. Virus control is largely a devolved matter as it is to do with public health.

      Of course the 4 nations approach already seems to be breaking down, with an apparent plan for 'managed genocide' in England.

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    3. You should always use the plural.

      UK Chief Medical Officers

      http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/clinical/clinical-specialties/respiratory-/chief-medical-officers-12-march-letter-on-supporting-doctors-in-a-coronavirus-epidemic/20040333.article

      Delete
  3. Boris---"I have a plan for social care".

    Seems like the plan is ---let all the Oldies die.

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  4. The approach taken should always be to minimise loss of life, even if that comes at a high financial cost. Doctors swear oaths to this effect as part of their training.

    It does however look very much like Brexit England is looking to reduce the financial cost, with the price being lives.

    When China seems to care more for the human rights of it citizens than England, it's very worrying.

    If England goes down the route where it deliberately allows the virus to become widespread, 'working its way through the population' then like our neighburs in Europe, we must close the border.

    If England has a continued high infection rate while the spread is contained in European states, England would need to be isolated, with e.g. a complete travel ban on its citizens.

    It's very obvious that if your plan is not coordinated with your neighbours and you start playing by different rules, the borders will need to be shut around you.

    The Scottish government should likewise not be afraid to declare defacto independence if that is needed to save lives. The population can be consulted later about whether to return to the status quo afterwards; those that survive England's attempt to cull them anyway.

    I'm quite aware that coronavirus targets mainly brexit voters and unionists. However, Johnson's plan that we 'lose some of our loved ones' for the benefit of the English wealthy elite is grotesque.

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  5. ENGLAND: STOP F'N CALLING YOURSELF 'THE UK' BEFORE YOU GET PEOPLE KILLED.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51882897

    Coronavirus: Mass gatherings could be banned in UK from next week

    Mass gatherings could be banned in the UK from as early as next weekend amid the outbreak of coronavirus.

    A government source said ministers are drawing up plans for the move - to ease pressure on emergency services...


    But...

    ...Meanwhile, the Scottish government has already advised that gatherings of more than 500 people should be cancelled from next week.

    There is no UK government when it comes to mass gatherings. Control of these is a devolved matter.

    This is nuts. How the hell are the Scottish government meant to save lives when England just keeps confusing everyone by arrogantly calling itself the UK and giving out contradictory guidance?

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  6. Correct skier, the correct term should be England/UK.
    Domestic policy in England is decided at Westminster but here of course it's Holyrood.
    This seems to be too complicated for English politicians to understand, or do they understand but feel entitled to just step in and overrule Scotland when they feel like it.
    Nicola Sturgeon should do what's right for people here. Following Johnson will put our auld folk at risk unnecessarily.
    Acting independently is why we have a separate NHS.

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  7. Herd immunity is not a natural event. It is brought about by technological efforts and scientific endeavour to produce a vaccine that is effective against a disease. To allow the spread of the virus while misusing the term'herd immunity' is a disgraceful use of pseudoscience as 'scientific advice'.

    Scotland needs to follow WHO GUIDELINES not a Johnson/Trumpesque fantasy island scenario!

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  8. There is doubt on the uk plan working, looks like we are in a big experiment.


    "Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. “Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses.” Vaccines, he said, were a much safer way of bringing it about."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work

    If anyone has seen the film doomsday, we should build a big wall and shut our border with England so we are not part of the experiment.

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  9. I couldn't understand why the UK could consider itself so different from the other countries. British nationalism/ exceptionalism must be part of the answer. Another part of it could be if Dominic Cummings is behind a lot of this and believes he has this clever plan, backed by *some* scientists, that could work in theory, if epole act rationally and do what they are told.

    But in practice that's not what is happening. Obviously people are panic buying, and so on. But also, (being devil's advocate here, please bear with me) suppose the UK Govt approach is valid and honourable, then people spontanously withdrawing from schools and sporting events is not helping. In other words if people don't trust the Govt, then people's actual behaviour becomes part of the problem and the strategy, which could have worked in principle, doesn't work in practice.

    Either way, I think the Scottish Government should not allow itself to be dominated by the "science as presented by HM Govt" and should listen to the rest of the world, in our onwn interestes. We should not be dragged down by the UK, just to be seen to be 'all pulling together' in time of crisis.

    Any plaudits for "being co-operative in time of crisis" will go out the window when it's time to crucify the Scots Govt on its health record, which will suddenly be emphasised once more as a devolved matter come 2021.

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  10. http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27300&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=2355

    A thread by some prepping-minded, mainly English-based posters that may be of interest for calculations (and anecdotes). Check the later pages to keep up or dig into the earlier ones to see how accurate their thinking has been.

    Seems as though April will be the cruellest month.

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  11. It's insanely callous but they'll probably get away with it. For them not to, by summer there would need to be a large enough contrast between the UK deathrate and that elsewhere for the UK population to see what their govt has done to them. This is unlikely to happen because although the NHS will be deliberately overloaded by the govt, other healthcare systems are likely to be overloaded too.

    This is not to say Johnson and NS are taking the correct approach here. Just that afterwards they might not reap they whirlwind of mass fury they deserve. Plus Murdoch has obviously decided that globally he DGAF whether his readers or viewers die and will keep pumping out the scientifically illiterate propaganda in support of his favourite hard right populists.

    JK: "allow 60%+ of the public to be infected with a virus that has a reported mortality rate of 1-2%."

    The 1-2% rate goes back to this study from Imperial College based on the situation in China over a month ago: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-severity-10-02-2020.pdf

    But since then we've seen a higher deathrate in Italy because the population is older than China's. The Italian deathrate is also rising because the hospitals are overloaded. I've posted the exact figures on a recent thread here.

    The UK % of over-65s is much nearer Italy's than China's. Plus if the UK approach is to deliberately massively overload the NHS at one time, then you really are in uncharted territory regarding the deathrate.

    In such a fluid situation internationally, the best guide to the deathrate is looking at completed cases worldwide (recoveries v deaths), which gives a current deathrate of 6%. As explained above, this is likely to be considerably higher in the UK.

    I haven't lost anyone yet to the virus itself, but I have now lost a friend who couldn't handle the pressure cooker atmosphere here in Madrid, relapsed on drugs and hanged herself. She won't count among the official death tally, but the virus killed her indirectly. And I imagine the world will see many more indirect deaths of this kind.

    Another point about deaths that seldom gets mentioned, and it isn't cheerful. Although the % of over-80s that die is much higher at 15%, people in their fifties are almost as likely to die because they're much more likely to catch it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/how-many-will-die-of-coronavirus-in-the-uk-a-closer-look-at-the-numbers

    In the early stages of this outbreak, the thing people weren't understanding was the fact that there isn't one deathrate but two: when hospitals can cope and when they can't. The current problem is callous younger people writing this off as an illness that mainly threatens the lives of the very old. Percentage-wise that's true, but in numbers of actual deaths not so much, because based on the data so far, younger people are much more likely to catch it.

    It takes a special kind of insane arrogance to look at facts like the above, see the entire world responding differently, and then still to press ahead with a policy of infecting the UK population ASAP, but tell them you're doing the opposite. And yes, if Nicola's in on the con she's finished.

    A couple of months ago NS being finished would have seemed like a big deal. Not any more. Not if she's taken this colossal gamble and cost thousands of Scottish lives.


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  12. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 1:44 PM

    @BDSM Club.

    With respect pal , quite frankly i think you are being wildly over the top. What do you propose nicola sturgeon and even boris johnson to do?

    Wave a magic wand and command this virus to stop infecting people?

    Im middle aged , and like everyone else on the planet am deeply concerned about myself , my family , friends and loved ones , acquantances becoming infected. At the end of the day , you might feel you need politicians to hold your hand and lead you through this , for the majority of the rest of us , we are all trying to keep a level head , not panic and try and carry on as best we can and as sensible as we can with a thought for others in the process.

    Your post reads as some great conspiracy theory linking nicola sturgeon in with boris johnson in some crackpot reasoning to cull people in these islands.

    You sound like some labour party toadie trying to cull two birds with one stone over coronavirus , ie blaming the snp and tories.

    This is beyond politics. What i will say though is thank feck we dont have the labour party muppets in charge.

    When it comes to a health crises , you only need to look at the state of the nhs in wales , or scotland under labour administrations in the past , to see the mess labour make of peoples health and lives.

    Labour didnt need the coronavirus to cull the scottish population when they had scottish life expectancy the lowest in the western world in my home city.

    Knife crime , drink and drugs , murder and fitba , as long as we kept voting in labour scum , and sending the feeble fifty down to london , the cost of a thousands of scottish lives was a price worth paying.

    Im fecked if im going to listen to some wild crackpot conspiracy theory bleating about nicola the tartan tory over coronavirus after living through the hell of labour administrations .

    ReplyDelete
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    1. "What do you propose nicola sturgeon and even boris johnson to do?"

      You make it sound as if there's no possible answer to that question, but you must know there is. Social distancing, quarantining, industrial-scale testing, fast and meticulous contact-tracing, high levels of public awareness. These measures in combination have proved effective in other countries.

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    2. UK government strategy,is insanity of the highest degree. China controlled the virus in most of its provinces, yes it may re-emerge in China, but crucially, most crucially they have bought themselves some time.

      Italy haven't got it, the army is attempting to mass produce ventilators, their ICU capacity was already much higher than ours.


      Delete
  13. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 2:10 PM

    Ok james , i think you make a fair point , but at the end of the day , outwith the political chattering classes , i dont see anyone anywhere , and i have family in america , England , ireland , france and many other countries , blaming any politicians in a serious manner.

    Everyone is well aware this is beyond politics. Even in france , where i would hazard a guess macron is far more deeply unpopular than johnson is in scotland and england ,no one is blaming his administration.

    Sure , there is always the argument more can always be done , and there seems far more questions than answers.

    I think we are all going to get coronavirus . I think i had it three weeeks ago when i was mildly ill and had many of the symptoms mentioned.

    I take on board all that you are saying , but quite frankly i think the earlier post by BDSM club is nothing short of ridiculous scaremongering.

    We need level heads and thought about each other , not political fingerpointing.

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    1. Look, if you think there isn't going to be political blame attached when the UK ends up with far more deaths than anywhere else in Europe as a direct result of a decision to follow a 'herd immunity' strategy in this country alone, then you're living in dreamland.

      Delete
  14. Firstly, I've been SNP since first delivering party lit as a seven-year-old in Moray.

    Secondly, "in on the con" refers specifically to the wording immediately before it: "but tell them you're doing the opposite."

    Lastly, at no point have I or anyone else on this site that I know of suggested this is a deliberate cull, so you're way out of line there. What it is IMO is an extremely irresponsible and, compared to the rest of the world, extremely unusual gamble with the lives of the UK population.

    I've stood by NS over virtually every other issue, but it looks like on this one not only going along with the UK govt's approach, but is being equally dishonest about the fact she's doing so. The fact that the UK govt is not being blatantly clear about the gamble it's taking with many thousands of lives -- it deserves a live broadcast by Johnson -- means that to an extent there is a conspiracy here, just as Labour's dishonest use of the dodgy dossier gave an element of conspiracy to the invasion of Iraq.

    You need to read my comment again without assuming there's anything Slab in there. If you have a substantive argument against a single actual point I make about deathrate etc I'm all ears. I've been fending off silliness like yours for many weeks now from people who just can't handle the hard data of this nightmare.

    Tbh you seem out of your depth, which is irresponsible if you have a family. You need to stfu with wildly innaccurate accusations like the above and spend your time instead doing research for your family's sake. Then man up and come out of denial, mate. There's far worse yet to come and you need to be in a better-informed state than this to face it.

    I wish you and your family a healthy outcome here.

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    Replies
    1. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 2:36 PM

      @ BDSM club

      Out of my depth for simply responding to your wild conspiracy theory and blatant scaremongering?

      Your initial post was nothng more than an attempt to ramp up hysteria over coronavirus and subtly infer its johnson and sturgeons fault . I simply made sure labours inglorious track record on health was thrown into the mix.

      Who the feck are you? Head of the WHO?

      You need to stfu and stop scaremongering and fingerpointing.

      You are just another faceless punter on the interwebby offering an opinion which is of no more or less validity than anyone elses , with your back up "proof" some pishy article in the guardian.

      Theres no denial here pal. Im simply rolling up my sleeves and doing what i think is in my , my friends family and loved ones best interests , and the people im listening to are health professionals , not faceless muppets on the internet running around like a headless chicken shouting the end of the world is nigh and its all the snp and tories fault.

      oh and by the way , save all the im snp , im scottish , im one of you pish for someone who gives a feck.

      Best wishes to you and yours too.

      Delete
    2. LOL. Big hug, man. Hopefully neither of us are infected.

      Delete
    3. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 2:56 PM

      @BDSM Club.

      Ok fair enough , like i said , i think i had it three weeks ago after coming back from a trip to cambridge.Certainly many of the symptoms were similar.

      We are both entitled to our opinions , but with respect im following the advice of health professionals not the latest voice of outrage on political sites like scotsgoespop.

      Delete
    4. Unionist Media BDSM ClubMarch 14, 2020 at 4:08 PM

      With the indulgence of my new buddy Govan young team (can I join?), here's what I mean by Nicola's dishonesty. Here she is posting a video explaining the benefits of 'flattening the curve': https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1238478280677875712

      In the thread below loads of people have correctly pointed out that this is the exact opposite of what the UK govt and also ScotGov are doing. And notice that at no point has NS or any ScotGov head has chipped in to dispute this.

      So unless somebody can explain otherwise, Nicola is being dishonest here: pretending she's in favour of flattening the curve while not actually doing so.

      If I sound freaked in my response to this, then so be it. It's not just crazy but dishonestly so. The UK and Scottish govts want people to get this deadly virus asap but are pretending they don't. I am freaked by this. We all should be.

      One point in ScotGov's favour, mind: they seem to be well ahead of England when it comes to testing.

      Delete
    5. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 4:31 PM

      @BDSM club.

      No you cant join the govan young team. You need to be from govan to be in it and take part in the initiation ceremony of downing a bottle of eldorado in one go.

      You do sound freaked out in your response. Man up , stop whinging and take control of your life instead of screaming nicola sturgeon and the snp are trying to kill us all.

      You sound ridiculous , not to mention blaming political leaders for something outwith their control will only end with you having egg all over your face.

      I think both the scottish and uk governments are doing a fine job in the face of adversity and the general wailing of the usual crybabies scared to death of their own shadows.

      Tell me my new buddy , which political party do you support?

      Im convinced more than ever you are some sort of wretched labour toadie .

      Can you imagine the state scotland and england would be in if comrade corbyn , rebecca dong daily , nandy pandy or keir stammer , with the various branch officers in the colonies , were in charge of events?

      If only clunking fist brown was here to save the world again like he did in the financial crises lmfao.

      You sound like that catherine tate character that screams in terror everytime someone says something to her.

      Trying to political point score against major politicians is laughable at times of crises like coronavirus.

      No one is listening mate , no one cares.

      We are all too busy trying to get on with our lives while you chattering classes bleat on about the evils of the world being the fault of trump sturgeon and johnson.

      Delete
    6. Testing Friendship BDSM ClubMarch 14, 2020 at 4:46 PM

      What kind of friendship is this?

      I've told you already what my party is. Here's my twitter: https://twitter.com/Scottish_Cringe

      Kind of a weird feed for a Labourite or a Unionist of any kind.

      Until this friendship is back on a more solid footing, I'm going to need my lawnmower and my niche porn mags back.

      Delete
    7. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 5:07 PM

      Our friendship can best be described as being one of mutual contempt.

      You are on a winning formula of kidding on you are one of the boys while continually thowing muck at nicola sturgeon in the hope something sticks over coronvirus.I mean no one has ever thought of that before have they?

      When people are laying in bed wae sore shoulders ,sore neck , headache and dry cough you must be having orgasms at the thought somehow this will all be blamed on nicola sturgeon and the snp.

      Whats that branch manager guy ricky leopard saying about all this coronvirus malarkey?

      Has he recovered from taking a kicking yet again in december?

      ...and who the feck reads porn mags in this day and age ? What age are you ?

      Pair auld labour , always playing catch up wae events and never really having any relevance in ordinary peoples lives.

      Imagine the northern english rather voting tory than voting labour lmfao?

      Imagine having sunk that low you are reduced to carping from the sidelines that the corona virus is all nicola sturgeons fault?

      The labour party , knifing scotland in the back for the last century .

      Look its five past five mate , you `ve made it through the day till tea time.well done you!!!

      Delete
    8. Govan Young Team's Wife's BDSM ClubMarch 14, 2020 at 5:23 PM

      Mate, we've been through this that time me and your wife sat you down to tell you about our dungeon. When you're upset or angry or humiliated, you're incapable of discussing things in a civilised manner.

      You get drunk and confused and start contradicting yourself: "oh and by the way , save all the im snp , im scottish , im one of you pish for someone who gives a feck... which political party do you support?; "Did she love it, aye? No, don't tell me, I don't want to know. But did she? Did she get right aff on it?" etc. You remember.

      But you eventually got over our dungeon and we've spent many a night, the three of us, watching vids of me and her going at hammer and tongs. And trust me, although you're just as out of your depth with coronavirus as you are with your wife's sexuality, you'll eventually come to terms with this issue too.

      Take care for now and I'll see you on Monday for our next wee night watching vids together. And don't worry about my session in the dungeon with your wife tonight. We've both been tested and we're clean.

      Delete
    9. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 5:53 PM

      Its awright bdsm , you have fully allayed all the fears of me and my family.

      We have just sat down to our evening meal of mexican wraps , and i announced to the family no to worry , theres a guy on scotgoespop called BDSM whose been an SNP member since he was 7 , knows all about coronavirus , and says as long as we all blame nicola sturgeon for "not flattening the curve" in a joint action in line with the dastardly boris johnson to kill the good people of these islands , and vote labour forevermore , we will all be fine.

      After spitting their fajitas on the table and laughing for five minutes , they all said they hadnt laughed so hard since grannie caught her tits in the mangle.

      Thanks for that mate , we will all sleep well the night.I can hardly read the screen on my phone for the tears of laughter.

      Delete
    10. GWC cannae get a wummin.

      Even clatty batty used to gie him a knock back .

      Delete
    11. Govan Young Team's Wife's BDSM Club Boxset Only a FiverMarch 14, 2020 at 6:15 PM

      That's heartwarming to hear. Tell your missus not to overdo the spicy food, though. Flatulence echoing off the dungeon walls spoils the mood a bit.

      Delete
    12. Hey you peewee.

      Are you trying to get aw gallus wae that wee baldy hawf incher o yours?

      You wait till you get hame the night.

      av smashed yer bowler hat and pit a fag burn in yer tracksuit. Yer gola vest is next oan the list.

      Delete
    13. I don't think Govan young team is GWC. Depressingly, he seems to be the pig-ignorant, scattershot, unfunny, hung-like-a-cashew, barely literate indy equivalent, equally loathed by his wife.

      But what can you do? He's a mate, like.

      Delete
    14. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 7:17 PM

      SSSHHHHH! its awright pal , i`ll no tell the boys you are a bedwetting panic stricken labourite.

      Many bog rolls have you bought the day?

      Delete
    15. what size boots are you BDSM?

      Delete
    16. Govan Young Team's Wife's Multiple-Orgasmic BDSM ClubMarch 14, 2020 at 7:31 PM

      No bogroll, but your wife insists the dungeon has plenty of kitchen roll and wet wipes, for obvious reasons.

      Delete
    17. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 8:07 PM

      A fink you orange unionists are half prodistant northern irish. you sound similar and make all the right expressions the way a loyalist would understand that is alien to the rest of us scotttish.

      You eat loads of fried mars bars and we eat loads of fish , giving us bigger brains which we use to tease the feck out of silly daft unionists who are mostly middle aged grey tattooed types with walking sticks signing on , and then there are their wives who chain smoke roll ups and moan about feck all being good on the telly nowadays.

      Ah never new govan was middle class till i drove a van down the shankill.

      Delete
    18. Mental Healthcare UnitMarch 14, 2020 at 8:42 PM

      Check this out this Rangers fan, GYT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dLNKHtQTWw

      A lot of Celtic fans like to laugh at him and his ludicrous "Same old Alloa, always cheating." I've laughed, but I feel a bit guilty about it.

      What people see in that video is a lost drunken halfwit shouting what he believes is some valid point about Alloa's cheating, but is actually as humiliating a public show as a Rangers fan could ever make of himself. He clearly has mental health issues, so we shouldn't really laugh at him.

      In a similar way, I could keep having these little exchanges with you, but probably shouldn't. It's been like taking a water cannon to a monkey waving a banana -- fun for a bit, but now I feel a bit guilty.

      Whether they've made it obvious or not, the people around you, including your employees (!), see you the way most people see the guy in that video. Your contributions above are your equivalent of that video.

      If you like being viewed that way, then carry on. If you don't, then this is a chance for you to cop on to yourself.

      I still wish you and your family all the best healthwise, in every sense. Bye for now.

      Delete
    19. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 9:18 PM

      Thats awright GWC , you run off . I accept your surrender.

      Delete
  15. James
    I'm not on twitter but perhaps you could promote the petition encouraging total lockdown on the UK petitions website?
    To me this 'herd' immunity and the possible cost of around 500,000 human lives is - actually words fail me.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 3:34 PM

      I dont support a total lockdown of scotland and the wider uk at present.

      I run a small business , with 6 employees , and i am worried about the medium term consequences of a total lockdown and potentially going out of business in the process.

      I think the government position at both holyrood and westminster is the correct one as things stand , a fine balancing act based on where we are between protecting the elderly and most vulnerable as best we can balanced against trying to continue with our daily lives and business as best we can.

      My business will survive the short term , and can pay the bills and wages at the end of the month , but if we were put into lockdown prematurely for a longer than necessary period im not sure how we would survive april with no money coming in.

      So i dont agree from my own viewpoint.

      I have a mortgage , bills and wages to pay , wether coronavirus exists or not , and so far i havent seen anything by the scottish or uk governments that will alleviate my worry over the medium term future if there was a total lockdown which worries me far more than the coronavirus does.

      Delete
    2. There is also the problem for the Scottish government in helping businesses in the face of a shut-down. Because people voted No in 2014, Holyrood is currently at the mercy of London for funding.

      This inability to do what any other country can do (borrow if needed, increase taxes, relieve taxes etc), may cost lives in Scotland, lives that would not be lost if we were independent.

      The problem will be influencing Scottish government decisions.

      Delete
    3. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 4:41 PM

      Well said scottish skier , couldnt agree more.

      Delete
    4. I understand your concern, but I think, as I have said elsewhere, that Nicola owes it to us all to come out and tell us what she might wish to do if we had the full control that other countries have.
      This herd immunity business is based on questionable epidemiology and quite frankly if it doesn't work many businesses will go to the wall. I see the SG has already come out with measures to help businesses. Putting pressure on Westminster through petitions to get this sorted is our only means of making the case at present.

      Delete
    5. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 6:16 PM

      Sorry i dont agree.

      Nicola sturgeon doesnt have to come out and say anything. She told us back in 2014 what she wanted to do , and the docile scottish population rejected her argument saying they wanted westminster to remain in control.

      We only has to tick a feckin box where so many other countries had to fight for their freedom , and we couldnae even manage that.

      Now faced with one of the biggest pandemics , we are reduced down to "petitioning" a uk government to put pressue on them to "save" us from the coronavirus instead of having the ability to make decisions as an independent country on our own , in our best interests.

      I wont be petitioning anyone.

      Both the scottish and uk governments have offered extremely limited assistence to the vast majority of business , of which most measures wont as it stands make a blind bit of difference to our business standing or falling.

      Delete
  16. Your blog, your decision....
    Also, I think that priority when 'we', or 'one', is/are presented with a personal medical decision, is to be secure in one's own choice (I began to think like this a few years ago when I was diagnosed with prostate cancer, and had to choose amongst four possible treatments). My estimate of the chance of a UK resident contracting this disease in the next year is somewhere in the range of 5% and 20% -- could be higher, unlikely to be lower. I'm not prepared to accept this level of risk, because of aspects of my partner's health, and because of our age. So we're moving purposefully into self-isolation. (If we were both half our ages and healthy, we might well decide differently, but why indulge in counter-faculties when facing a real-world issue?).
    I would be interested in how you react to this argument, but doubt that you will have the time to tell me -- and would, in any case, not respond to you in turn..........

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The UK government want 60% of the population to be infected in this outbreak. Not 20%, not 5%, but 60%. Whether they'll get their wish is open to question, but as that was the policy you were defending earlier, it's important that you know what it is.

      Delete
  17. .... counter-factuals, I mean, of course.....

    ReplyDelete
  18. Great post James, I hope you don't mind but I have attached it in an email I sent direct to the First Minister today pleading with her on the regard. Text below. I urge everyone to do the same. Please refrain from cut and paste. Your own words are always best. Be humble and respectful and give her her place.

    " An Open letter to Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland,

    I am contacting you regarding the subject matter and to relay my and my families deepest concerns that we have in relation to the present UK governments response to it and it's present strategy for dealing with it.

    We are no experts; we are not professionally qualified in medicine or related disciplines either, however that is not to say we are without knowledge or understanding with regard to the present global pandemic and it's gathering effect on Scotland and the rest of the UK. As you are aware there is plenty of information out there and a plethora of advise based on recent and past experience. We are simple, hard working citizens of Scotland trying to steer the best path through this present crisis the best way we can along with the rest of Scotland.

    This brings me to the point of this "letter", which I hope you will regard as an official and formal plea to you and your colleagues; the present strategy which the UK government is following diverges completely away from the best advise and practice available on how to tackle this pandemic at a nationwide level and as such, I plea from the bottom of my heart to break away from this course and start unilaterally following best advise as it presently stands from WHO Secy General. Please stand firm for Scotland, stand firm for it's people and stop this headlong rush into a catastrophic future that our UK government are pursuing.

    Please read the post in the link here: http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2020/03/dont-follow-herd-nicola-and-dont-lets.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ScotGoesPop+%28SCOT+goes+POP%21%29 "

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your family will look back and say uncle Anonymous wis an erse hole but was family.

      Delete
  19. One things for sure .. we're heading for the mother of all recessions!

    UK's already up to its eyeballs in debt. The borrowing for last week's budget is going to cause financial armegedon for great brittania.

    Wee countries with massive oil funds will be fine!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Socialism is the alternative to capitalist recessions. The Scottish Nat sis are fully on board with capitalism. So no change. Whatever happened to those leftie labour that joined the Scottish Nat si party!!!!!!

      Delete
    2. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 7:43 PM

      What happened to the socialist alternative under comrade corbyn at the last erection GWC?

      Feckin hell wolfie smith the brit nat.

      up the revolution wae comrade corbyn , lady nugee and the other north islington champagne socialists.

      Delete
    3. You think Corbyn was a socialist! Wanker.

      Delete
    4. ah love labour.

      We stole 6000 miles of the scottish EEZ , had you dying in glasgow at 58 , and saddled you with years of PFI debt while telling you we were socialists.

      And the funniest thing was you daft buggers believed us.

      Delete
  20. If we see the death rate in the UK start to rise markedly above European neighbours which are following WHO guidance, then we'll have to look at trying the English government for genocide.

    A 2% death rate is just not remotely acceptable; that would be 780,000 people if 60% catch it. It would be WW1 all over again.

    As an Irishman, I can confirm that England will kill millions by such means happily if it financially benefits the English ruling class. The Irish famine was case in point; England exporting Irish grown food to England for profit while the Irish starved.

    And before folk say 'but there's no money', to prevent mass deaths, you do what you need to do, including taxing the rich to the eyeballs, confiscate mansions for temporary hospitals etc. It's a war type situation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I thought you were a Jocko. You change your mind more than the Mrs. The Irish will never get over the famine or Cromwell. They need revenge and killing the descendents of anyone who is not an English Catholic who lived during the nineteenth century. The English took them out of the bog and no appreciation at all.

      Delete
    2. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 7:36 PM

      Geez peace GWC. The famine?

      There were 28 artifically induced famines in ireland from 1728 onwards culminating in the an ghorta mhor , the great hunger of 1845-48.

      One learned historian exclaimed calling it the tottie famine was like calling the holocaust the jewish oxygen famine.

      There was plenty of food in ireland , and it was all being shipped out of everyone of irelands thirteen posts while westminster allowed the irish to starve to death.

      How could the irish ever get the hump about such a little misunderstanding as that eh?

      Lord arthur chichester famously said two centuries earlier that english policy in reducing down the aboriginal irish to being usefull to the crown must be famine. Famine must consume them as our swords and other endevours work not that speedy effect which is expected for their overthrow.

      The poor irish certainly have no appreciation of english tactics for civilising them.

      Even today the protestant northern enclaves are among the poorest areas not only on the island or ireland , but in the whole of europe.

      Honestly you talk some utter bollocks so you day.

      Delete
    3. Irish pish talk. Phytophthora was a plant disease and a Russian eventually identified it. You jock Irish Catholics play the blame game for anything. You have never contributed anything towards enhancing the human race. Too much time spent on yer knees praying to something that does not exist. Wankers.

      Delete
    4. @GWC

      Like all of your type you display the arrogance of stupidity in your defence of your Union with England as your masters, they're murderers, cold calculating murderers who carried out their trade throughout various parts of the world and who's record is far higher numbers than the Nazis

      Hitlers playbook was the English Empire, he just copied it

      Delete
    5. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 8:14 PM

      What are you talking aboot now GWC?

      There was indeed a tottie disease , but i already mentioned there was plenty of food on the island of ireland yan auld roaster.

      Im no irish , and although im no religous , i was christened a scottish prebyterian at birth so what are you foaming at the mouth about now?

      The truth hurts to unionist bootlickers.

      Delete
    6. I think the meenster poured tae much watter oer yer heid an hawf drount ye ya wee Govan tosser.

      Delete
    7. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 8:33 PM

      GWC , i always remember reading about lord cornwallis. Heard of him?

      He was given the job of securing the political union with ireland . Talking to you auld labour unionists brought it to mind.

      Heres what the good lord famously wrote....

      "my occupation is now of the most unpleasant nature , bargaining and jobbing with the most corrupt people under heaven.

      I despise and hate myself every hour for engaging in such dirty work , and am supported by the reflection that without a union , the british empire must surely be dissolved."

      Cant think why , but i immediately thought of you when that came to mind.

      Delete
    8. He carried on with his mission and collected his salary inspite of the so called dirty work. The British did a disservice to Ireland by disengaging. Ireland is British.

      Delete
    9. Govan young team.March 14, 2020 at 9:13 PM

      GWC he did , the point is his description of the people he was bribing in the colonial parliament of ireland into union with england must be similar to the thinking of the modern day english like corbyn when dealing with the likes of you and the lanarkshire labour mafia. It cost england over a million in bribes in the early 19th century.

      To paraphrase under secretary cooke writing to william pitt in 1799...

      "by giving the daft jocks and paddies 145 members in an assembly of 650 , they will be impotent to operate in that assembly , but it will be invested by scottish and irish assent to its authority."

      Ireland outwith ulster 6/9 hasnt been "british " for a 100 years. Thats why they get to do the grown up hings and tackle coronavirus as they see fit while people like you need mother england to hold yer apron strings.

      The irish get to set policy on whatever they like while we in scotland are reduced down to petitioning the mother of all parliaments in england for permission for the wee pretendy parliament to have control of road signs.

      ..and funny enough as the economist david mcwilliams said , its strking how much richer the independent republic of ireland is compared to its british six county neighbour in the north east.

      Delete
    10. Except Ireland isn't actually British.

      Delete
    11. Northern Ireland is British. The Papist bum boy perverts still run the South.

      Delete
    12. Latest polls have it only half British. Less than half for a hard brexit.

      Delete
  21. Big Eater From PerthMarch 14, 2020 at 6:39 PM

    You can say what you like about Kelly – and I do – but he's good with the numbers.

    Question everything. But learn to spot the stuff that’s going to have only gibberish for answers.
    I dislike Facebook because it has become this huge, clunky, clumsy, creaking machine. It’s like somebody asked Terry Gilliam and Maurits Cornelis Escher to collaborate on designing a social media platform. My laptop hates it! It’s a brand new machine and definitely not low-spec. But after ten minutes or so on Facebook it starts wheezing like it’s using Capstan Full Strength to treat a bad case of emphysema.
    Now I'm showing symptoms of shortness of temper and spitting feathers. Let me breathe in your face. We need a campaign that addresses people’s sense of injustice. We need a message that sparks anger. Not rage! Anger! Righteous anger.

    Be generous. Do not hoard your calories of fury.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Big Eater hits the back of the net!

      Delete
    2. magnificent pie eaterMarch 14, 2020 at 6:53 PM

      when does GWC`s shift end?

      Delete
  22. I know the UK government are fine with killing the poor, disabled etc, so I can't help but be pretty concerned about the route they plan to take? So far, I'm not saying they've done everything wrong, but the numbers are rising fast and we are at a crucial junction.

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/14/world-health-organisation-questions-uk-coronavirus-approach-12397312/

    World Health Organisation questions UK’s ‘herd immunity’ approach to coronavirus

    The UK needs to be taking more ‘action’ against the coronavirus epidemic, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has said. The current ‘herd immunity’ approach has been called into question with experts saying not enough is known about the virus.

    ReplyDelete
  23. In the time of the bay of pigs trouble in the early 60s we were told to put sheets up all round the room fill the bath with water etc and this was officials telling us this in our school in Rosyth

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think your maw wis saying you were clatty and wash yerself.

      Delete
    2. private mcgubligginMarch 14, 2020 at 8:18 PM

      Hey GWC , yer maws seen mair helmets than adolf hitler.

      Delete
    3. She worked in a pickle factory during the war.

      Delete
    4. To add to the posts at the top of the thread, seeing lots of people based in Scotland who are not happy with what is happening in regards to testing / school closures etc but are tagging in people like Boris Johnson /UK Gov etc. Of course this is pointless as they have no control on these areas. Need to make sure that you are tagging in Nicola Sturgeon Scot Gov etc as they are the only ones with the power to change things in Scotland. This is important people could die if you blame the wrong government.

      Delete
    5. A major problem is the English government calling itself the UK government and giving very confusing messages as result.

      If you were organising a big event with 500 people today in Scotland, Johnson, the (non-existent) 'UK' Chief medical officer and the BBC are telling you it's all fine and dandy to go ahead. Yet of course you are not supposed to do that at all because the emergency services are need to save lives elsewhere, as requested by the Scottish government.

      It's why broadcasting not being devolved is a fucking mess. It may end up killing people soon. That and deep-seated English arrogance in calling itself the UK.

      Delete
    6. I was in a restaurant in the Calton today, the Barras. Place was mobbed. Glesga, was mobbed. Fear is not a way to live. If your time is up then that is it. The Govan Team impersonator is a shite bag.

      Delete
    7. private mcgubligginMarch 14, 2020 at 9:21 PM

      yer maw sucked pickles ye say?

      Delete
    8. If you were planning a future 500+ that required emergency service attendance (events that don't require emergency service attendance are not yet banned) then permission would not be granted due to the restrictions. If you have an event coming up it is down to the relivent Scottish authorities to ensure that you realise that the event cannot go ahead. If you are unsure about anything you contact the relivent person.

      If you hold the event without checking/being granted permission and people die then you are liable, one of the mainstays of being granted permission is that you ensure that you are following all guidance and legislation required at the time of the event. If you don't and people die then you are liable to be charged with culpable homicide. 'But the BBC said', is of course not a defence.

      Delete
    9. You don't think that the BBC, English government etc should correct themselves so it's clear which nation the guidance they are announcing on the news applies to?

      Instead, you think if the public gets mixed messages, it's the public's fault for listening to the public service broadcaster and heeding its (incorrect) guidance?

      Delete
    10. A restaurant in the Calton? I think you mean a trough.

      Delete
    11. Here, GWC, it's not far to walk:

      https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/jun/16/bilson-eleven-dennistoun-glasgow-restaurant-review-marina-oloughlin

      and you'd particularly appreciate the culinary decor.

      Delete
  24. Well, I'm a R&D chemist, only biology to first year uni, but I have been concerned too about the English government strategy (with this being somewhat forced on Scotland because Scotland does not have full control).

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

    Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

    Hundreds of scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.

    In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. your now blatantly lying - the Scot Gov has full control of everything in the strategy that they are criticising.

      Delete
    2. So they have full control of taxation and borrowing to support an independent strategy involving huge nation-wide shut-downs where businesses need support and people need welfare payments? What about control of borders? Army support?

      Stop lying. For once. Christ, this is serious.

      Delete
    3. I am here my son and listening to Scottish moaners since I fed the multitude with fishes and bread.

      Delete
    4. They mention none of that just social distancing. The Scot Gov have announced that they are introducing legislation to support business (on top of the UK wide support announced in the UK Gov Budget) Scotland can borrow money (you lied about the fact that they could not earlier). The WHO has said shutting borders has not real effect.

      Stop blaming other countries, this is not the time for your pathetic xenophobic rants.

      Delete
  25. Here in England we have signs giving the latest advice outside Hospitals / train stations underground stations etc.

    I have also received emails /text messages both from my local authority and childrens two schools (as well as displayed on the their website) giving links to the English NHS advice page. Employers schools etc have been sent PDFs of posters showing the latest advice /sources of information .

    Are you saying the Scottish Government are doing non of this? Shocking if true. You are saying that they are providing so little information that the only source of information they have is the BBC and this is causing the confusion?

    ReplyDelete
  26. What was confusing, was the English government contradicting some of this advice by announcing measures for 'the UK' which were actually only for England.

    Are we going to have 'Scottish Schools closing tomorrow' while the BBC tells people that 'Schools across the UK will be remaining open' tomorrow? Or vice versa.

    FGS just agree with me it's better to not give such mixed messages. Even if it results in one death it's one too many.

    Just say 'England' not the UK. It's not that fucking hard.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Sorry your telling me that is schools were to shut tomorrow the Schools/local authorities Scot Gov would not make that abundantly clear, that people would have to rely on the media for information. Are things really that bad in Scotland? If my kids school wants to send a message to parents, it sends an email, text message, and push notification through its app, all on top of a letter that it can give to the students. I don't have to rely on the local press to inform me; are you seriously saying that does not happen in Scotland?

    ReplyDelete
  28. Big Daddy Amin King of ScotlandMarch 14, 2020 at 10:29 PM

    I can sort out all problems in Scotland.


    ReplyDelete
  29. This is serious

    "Hundreds of scientists have written to the government urging them to introduce tougher measures to tackle the spread of Covid-19.

    In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

    How can we believe that the UK Govt is following the science?

    ReplyDelete
  30. The Scottish government is giving as much information as it can but mostly is forced to do it using social media because England controls broadcasting in Scotland resulting in the silencing of the First Minister when they want to silence her

    No matter the urgency no matter the possible disaster the English government never stops playing politics and undermining Scotland at every opportunity

    There is no Empire anymore because England's elitist born to rule politicians couldn't give a monkeys about actual people, that's why over 50 countries left them and aren't on the phone asking to come back, you folk living in England just haven't figured it out yet, Tories Labour Lib Dem they're the same people but you don't have anyone else to vote for, that why Scotland is oiling up the bike starting the car getting on the bus and getting the flock away from it

    Remember the General Election when Corbyn told you all he was going to open up the vault and spend and nobody believed him because the Tories said there wasn't enough money to do that, the Tories employed the media to run with the same story and they collectively rubbished every word Corbyn said but all of a sudden the Tories are offering to spend even more money than Corbyn promised and you all believe that, why, because SKY the BBC all the Tory newspapers and others aren't rubbishing it

    More than half of Scotland worked this out quite a few years ago, that's why we vote SNP

    I hope for England's sake you find real people one day to be your politicians, then England will have a chance, but you've not very long to go as you are

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Are, there is no doubt that if you think the broadcasting should not be immediately devolved along with control of borders, full tax spend and borrowing, even the Scottish regiments - effectively complete home rule on the scale of e.g. the faroe islands - then you are putting your unionism before lives.

      The Scottish government are driving the coronavirus car with just control of the handbrake, the clutch, and the windscreen wipers. Meanwhile, the BBC, Johnson and co in England are randomly reaching over and fiddling with everything else. It is a recipe for disaster, and 10's of thousands of deaths.

      A one size approach will not fit all, not when you have 4 nations, all with quite different domestic situations / public services. It's like France having control of Spanish broadcasting, and announcing gatherings of 500+ are fine while the Spanish government says these should be immediately cancelled.

      And why does England call itself the UK? Wales doesn't do that. Neither does NI or Scotland. France doesn't arrogantly call itself 'Europe' and announce domestic policy as if if applies across the whole union. It's just England that has this breathtaking arrogance, an arrogance that may get many killed.

      Delete