Monday, February 3, 2020

Super Survation survey sees Yes soar into slight lead

For the avoidance of doubt, this is not the Scot Goes Pop-commissioned poll, which was conducted by another firm and will be published this evening. It looks like Survation have been sitting on this for a little while, because the questions were asked as part of the Progress Scotland poll conducted between the 20th and 22nd of January.

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 50.2%
No 49.8%

Scottish Parliament constituency voting intentions:

SNP 51%
Conservatives 23%
Labour 17%
Liberal Democrats 7%

Scottish Parliament regional list voting intentions:

SNP 38%
Conservatives 21%
Labour 19%
Greens 9%
Liberal Democrats 9%


As I always point out, Survation's regional list figures should be taken with a heavy dose of salt, because they generally seem to be markedly worse for the SNP and markedly better for the Greens than other firms suggest. I strongly suspect the problem lies in the way the question is posed, which may lead some respondents to wrongly suppose that they're being asked for a second preference vote.

26 comments:

  1. A pre-brexit poll then, so a bit out of date. Fieldwork back when the UK was a member of the EU.

    Yes could be higher now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As per the other thread, Yes voters are heavily down-weighted due to false 2014 recall. The sample claims to have voted exactly as per the 2019 election, but 52% Yes in 2014.

      There is too much voter regret over 2014 to keep using it for weighting.

      Delete
  2. This seat projector highlights the need to vote for another party on the list vote. SNP on 51% without an overall majority, or wafer thin.http://vote.cutbot.net/forecast/2962862b

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That seat projector gives the SNP a majority of seats and ~58% of seats for SNP + Green.
      66 SNP
      24 Con
      23 Lab
      9 Green
      7 Lib

      The SNP would do better if more people voted for them on the list. That is where you are guaranteed seats. It's much more important than constituencies, as it is the PR part. Any seats you win in the constituencies are just deducted, with no real gain.

      Try entering the constituency numbers into both the constituency and list sections and you'll see what I mean. 73/129 SNP!

      Delete
    2. Agreed. In other countries such as Germany using the D'Hondt system the thinking is that first vote should go for the List Party and the second vote for Constituency candidate.
      I'll be voting SNP list and Constituency.
      The unfortunate thing about recommending SNP voters give their list vote to another Party is that it splits the vote and could allow a Unionist Party to slip in.

      Delete
  3. Aye SS - Essentially people need to vote SNP one and two in even numbers. However it's tricky trying to get people to only vote SNP.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Unionist Media BDSM Club -- No Discussion of Polls, PleaseFebruary 3, 2020 at 4:40 PM

    Looks like we're entering the era of Yes virtually always being ahead, with all that will mean psychologically.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. About time if so. Squeaky bum time for the BritNats methinks.

      Delete
  5. Pound falling heavily at the prospect of a crappy Canada style deal (or no deal at all).

    The sooner Scotland dumps the weak and unstable sterling the better.

    We need a currency pegged to a stable one from a country with economic competence.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But what might be the possibilities of pegging the Scotsmerk / croun to a basket of other currencies? Let's say that no one of these currencies accounts for more than 25% of the basket. Wouldn't that create stability by diluting the effect of political and economic moves in any single outside territory (whether rUK, Eurozone, Norway, Canada, US...)?

      Delete
  6. James - would there be merit in the SNP and YES Scotland operating in tandem with the SNP standing solely for the constituency seats and YES Scotland standing only in the Regiobal vote?

    ReplyDelete
  7. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51363108

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's pretty obvious who are friends are. The ones singing auld lang syne and putting up our flag.

      Meanwhile, our lazy, cowardly, subsidy junkie neighbour who can't get off their fat erse and pay their own way tries to prevent us leaving so they can steal our fish, oil, taxes etc instead of going out and actually working for a living.

      Delete
  8. News on the radio back hame fae work was about how the lazy ersed cowardly subsidy junkie Johnson was going to prioritise English access to Scottish fisheries because England is too fucking lazy to pay its own way in the world.

    ReplyDelete
  9. The Canadian farmers got screwed by the canadian FTA, also brexit will see the end of Scottish fishing (So at least one bonus)

    ReplyDelete
  10. I assume this doesn't include 16&17 year old or EU citizens?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes - this one doesn't include either. Yougov included 16-18 year olds. I'd take them both with a pinch of salt. They were both predicting SNP getting only about 35 seats at the last GE. Yougov apparently improved its weighing, but Survation still uses the 2014 model. If you loke at the results of both, the question we all have to ask is how to persuade some of the 65+ age group to join the indy camp or at least become more indy curious. 60% of those under 60 are for indy and more than two thirds of those under 50. Only about 25% of those over 65.

      Delete
  11. All change now isn't it.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51357050

    ...Latvia's long-serving foreign minister, Edgars Rinkevics, told BBC Scotland his country deals with membership applications on a "case-by-case" basis.

    However, he made clear an application from within the UK, under Article 49 [new state gaining membership] of the Treaty of the European Union, would be welcome.

    "Whenever somebody in the UK decides to apply Article 49, we would be the staunchest supporters of (the) Article 49 process," he said.

    ReplyDelete
  12. So the yes vote is already down on the last poll.

    Didn't take long.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And even if it was newer there's always going to be some variation, especially between different pollsters. Overall, the trend is our friend, and the more Boris opens his mouth in the coming months the higher the Yes vote will likely creep.

      Delete
  13. Both this poll and the Yougov, which was undertaken the week after Survation, are still both a bit out of date potentially in that fieldwork was while the UK was still in the EU.

    A momentous change like that, even if folk know its coming, can have a big impact.

    Then we have the big change in tune from EU members about how Scotland would be dearly welcomed, at the same time as the pound is crashing on talk of no deal.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I see the GWC hasn't posted? Maybe they've stopped paying the prick. Either that or he's deid. Hopefully he's deid.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was resurrected and have moved the stone and will be with you forever. Always look on the bright side of life.

      Delete