Saturday, January 25, 2020

Poll/crowdfunder update

So just a very quick update for the 349 people who have between them contributed an amazing £6186 to help Scot Goes Pop commission an opinion poll on independence.  I haven't been idle on your behalf, and I think I've now got things more or less sorted.  If everything goes to plan, I should have some results for you within around 7-10 days. 

I now think it's highly unlikely that our poll will be the first post-election poll on independence - a number of people who are members of online polling panels have mentioned being surveyed over the last couple of weeks.  With the Sunday papers appearing tonight, we might even see the first poll (perhaps even the first couple) within a few hours.  However, I think a Scot Goes Pop poll is still a very worthwhile exercise.  Different polls produce different results, and the more independence polls there are, the better idea we'll have of how the Yes campaign is faring in the post-election environment.  And there's particular value in asking our own supplementary questions, because the mainstream media outlets who usually commission polls have their own preoccupations, and those are reflected in the questions that are asked.

34 comments:

  1. Thank you for doing this James, it is much appreciated.

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  2. Probably too late now but I wonder if the first week or two of February might be the important point. There's bound to be sufficient news coverage of exit day to get through to pretty much everyone that we're out, and there's no going back.

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    1. That thought entered my head just after I'd posted above. By the second week in Feb we should have a better idea of the SNP's way forward, and maybe Europe's stance. Plus as you say reality will be beginning to sink in for a few more of the general population.

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  3. I wonder how many Blair McDougall type 'unionist subsidy junkies' are planning to discuss poll results without actually having contributed to the crowdfunder...

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  4. Just reading over this to check the numbers...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-51174448

    ...and it's quite incredible the amazing job the English nationalists are doing at uniting Scottish/Welsh/NI unionists + nationalists against Westminster.

    We are actually witnessing unionist and nationalist in all three devolved nations standing shoulder to shoulder against London rule. Huge majorities voting against Westminster, from Scottish Labour to the DUP. And the DUP even backed brexit originally!

    Johnson & Co are utterly trashing the union, and only just getting started.

    I maintain my consistent position that the English nationalists will break the union, either directly or indirectly. For our unionists friends on here... the biggest danger to your union us not us nats, but England. While you waste time arguing on here with us, your union is being truly broken elsewhere by those you thought were your allies.

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  5. Out of interest do you think people in Belgium or Luxembourg are unionist subsidies junkies; were there Brexters right that Scots should not pay for them and they should stand on their own two feet?

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    1. I don't understand this post. Belgium and Luxembourg are independent countries for a start.

      And it is not me that calls people in Scotland who back the union 'subsidy junkies'. It is unionists / some English folks / politicians that use that kind of language (and it can't be in reference to Yes voters obviously, as these support standing on their own two feet). I do employ inverted commas as a result, just as I've done above. In English, this means you quoting or paraphrasing others.

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    2. Belgium and Luxembourg get substances from the EU Union, they get back more than they pay in. As you are making a big song and dance about countries standing on their own too feet I just wondered if you agreed with the Brexiters that they should stop relying on other counties in the Union and stand on their own two feet? After all Luxemburg has one of the highest GDPs per capita in the world, why should they be bailed out.

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    3. Unlike some, I don't tell folks from other countries what's best for them, so shall not pass comment on other states, particularly on the basis of what some random on the internet claims.

      Again, I am not calling anyone subsidy junkies. It is unionists that use this language. I don't believe Scotland to be subsidised; I most certainly am not.

      So, you need to direct your question at people who believe in the whole subsidy junky thing, and who think it their place to hand out advice to other countries. Which isn't me.

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    4. Being part of the EU union is being told what to do by other countries. They tell other members that they have to accept free movement or charge VAT for example. If a EU member wants not to do either then other countries will tell them they have to. If that county does not what to be told what to do then it cant be in the EU obviously.

      Of course its not a random internet claim its very well documented.

      https://www.statista.com/chart/18794/net-contributors-to-eu-budget/

      I just assumed someone as pro EU as you would of know this. You must just be preoccupied but the strong possibility of the Scot Gov blocking the Scottish electorate from holding a second Indy Ref on Wednesday.

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    5. Again your post makes no sense. The EU is a voluntary union, so not a single law is forced on any member. Laws are collectively agreed and should a member which to exempt themselves, they can just pass an article 50 and leave immediately.

      Scots thought the UK was broadly the same. While London does overrule the devolved parliaments on a regular basis, technically the Scots / Welsh / N. Irish could simply request a Section 30, hold a referendum, and go for indy. Ergo, UK laws were not forced. However, England is now saying that UK membership is not free choice, and it decides who can leave. Ergo, the comparison with the free democratic EU is no more.

      Are you calling some EU countries 'subsidy junkies'? If so, you are really unpleasant. In the EU, contributions vary depending on how well your economy is doing, ergo everyone puts in a fair share all the time. There's no point looking at a single year and screaming unionist/British insults like 'subsidy junkie'. So no, I don't think any EU member states are subsidy junkies. AGAIN, SINCE YOU ARE HARD OF HEARING OR A BIT THICK, 'SUBSIDY JUNKIE' IS BRITISH UNIONIST / ENGLISH NATIONALIST LANGUAGE, so you need to ask them about that sort of thing.

      It's pretty obvious who doesn't know anything. Christ, what 46 years in the EU and the UK has never had a since law forced on it. It happily accepted every single one; passed these freely into its own legal systems. Finally, it has decided it doesn't want EU laws any more and so is just just leaving. The EU 27 have made no attempt to stop it (if they had tried to block it and force EU law on the UK, I would have voted leave).

      The UK will continue to have free choice on EU laws. If it agrees to some, it will get more market access. Nothing forced; fully free choice. No country is 'told what to do', you just don't understand the world around you. Or are lying.

      And I absolutely love free movement; it's the best thing about the EU. Although I note that England is now attempting to force rUK free movement on Scots whether they want it or not. The EU is not doing that by contrast.

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  6. Unionist Media BDSM ClubJanuary 25, 2020 at 5:37 PM

    Have you polled people yet, James? If not, is there any chance of holding off until we've offically left the EU, especially if others have recently conducted polls? The actual fact of leaving the EU might be worth a little more support for Yes, which might help with morale.

    Because we're probably going to need that boost.

    >However asked if she would pursue an advisory referendum – as former health secretary Alex Neil has suggested – [Sturgeon] told the broadcaster she wanted to achieve independence.

    >“I’m in the business, as somebody who has campaigned for independence all my life, of a process that achieves independence rather than just a gesture.”

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/18186366.indyref2-officials-draft-white-paper-fm-prepares-update/

    Her use of that word 'gesture' seems like a kick in the teeth for indy supporters expecting something convincing from her on Wednesday.

    But it seems even worse than that. By calling any referendum without an S30 a 'gesture' she's handed Unionists a powerful weapon not just in the immediate future but for years ahead. They can now throw that word back at us whenever anybody mentions such a referendum, never mind if we hold one. This seems like a major blunder, but if anyone can explain why it isn't I'm all ears.

    I've defended NS and the SNP on Wings and elsewhere but tbh I'm now close to throwing in the towel.

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  7. To collectively reply to a few people above: I'm planning to go ahead as quickly as possible. Two of the questions in particular would be best asked now rather than later.

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  8. The polls mentioned may be have been private polls that won't be published. We will see if the Sunday Times publish one.

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  9. I missed out on contributing for this one, but would be happy to for another one... so to '
    Unionist Media BDSM Club' as James says he's going ahead with one asap, whats the harm in doing another in Feb where we'll be able to directly compare if any difference has been made.

    (As an aside, the fact that we've gone so long since the general election results without ANY really is strange)

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  10. People who get a favourable personal result from a poll will be happy. However Boris has written agreements and the law on his side. The nat sis do not care if they are low in a poll or the people vote against them, they are fascists. Would Robert Burns have supported THE NAT SIS ALLOWING THE EU to govern Scotland. Lets have a poll!

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    1. I'm curious...the law of which land is on his side?

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    2. The EU dose not govern Scotland it's the British, not English, Nationalists.

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    3. The EU Parliament does have a dose of the clap and it makes you blind.

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  11. The United Kingdom Irish Skier. Note you avoid as all you Nat sis do the question of the EU running Scotland. Ye ugly, creepin, Nat si blastic wonner, Detested, shunnn'd by saunt an' sinner, How daur ye EU set yer fit upon a Scottish bunnet.

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    1. If you are referring to the legal systems, we Scots are only subject to one law / legal system, and that is Scots law. There is no 'UK / British law'. One law, one court system. Scots law.

      So, I ask again, which law / legal system does Johnson, an English MP, have on his side?

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  12. Something that seems to being going under the radar which could have a knock effect in Scotland is the Irish GE .It looks as though Varadkar is going to lose and Fianna Fail like set to form the next Government .Sinn Fein are also expected to make big gains ..
    Fianna Fail have already stated if they are elected they are going to begin preparations for an unification poll.Fianna Fail are the more nationalist of the Irish parties as we all know and always have to look over their shoulder at Sinn Fein in case they start picking up their more republican minded supporters.
    Johnson can't simply say No as it is part of the GFA .If the Irish government request one he will have to agree or break the GFA .
    It's not a good look to give Ireland a poll and not Scotland one .

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    1. Rocksie1690 Taig.

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    2. If you actually read the GFA, you will find that the decision to hold a border poll in NI rests solely with whoever is Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.

      "Subject to paragraph 3, the Secretary of State shall exercise the power under Paragraph 1 if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."

      The assertion "If the Irish government request one he will have to agree or break the GFA" is factually wrong. IMO, the Irish government would approach the UK government in an attempt to intervene, only if it became obvious that the SSNI was blatantly ignoring the manifest will of the majority in NI, but even then, the UK government could hold out, until international pressure, world court orders etc became too much.

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    3. Except Fianna Fail are not planning for a border poll in the short to medium term:

      Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin told reporters ahead of the Dail's Christmas recess that while he does support a united Ireland, he does not anticipate a border poll in the coming years and that the focus, for now, should be on the restoration of Stormont and confidence in Northern Irish politics.

      https://www.irishcentral.com/news/fianna-fail-sinn-fein-united-ireland

      He goes on to say that Sinn Fein are being aggressive in their pushing for a border poll in the short term. Most of the Irish electorate seem to be agreeing with circa 80% of the electorate saying they will not vote for Sinn Fein and their 'aggressive' border poll policy.

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    4. Sinn Fein got 14% of the vote at the last election. A 6% increase wouldn't exactly be a setback for them!

      Nice try, Anon.

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    5. There's not a lot of need for a border poll since a new border down the Irish sea will soon be in place. Reunification is, in essence, already underway in earnest. The UK is breaking up. Sinn Fein & the SDLP have won, and not just the UK GE!

      And this is before the full trade negotiations begin. Ireland didn't have a full veto on the withdrawal agreement, but it has one for the post-brexit trade deal. If Eire asks the UK to jump, the UK will have to ask 'How high?'. So we be quite sure that in a few years, N. Ireland might still be technically part of the UK, but in reality it will be so backstopped it will be more part of Eire/the EU than the UK both economically, socially, and even even administratively (since Eire + the EU will controlling laws in all sorts of areas, from tax to the environment), with full EU free movement in place (which is impossible to avoid).

      Of course the Irish nationalist parties know all this, but can still capitalise on the growing anti-UK feeling in N. Ireland, as evidenced by Stormont's landslide rejection the brexit bill. This helps them get votes and sees the now defeated (at every electoral level) unionism grow weaker every day, mortally wounded by English nationalism (as the ulster unionists now openly admit).

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    6. Very very well said, your grasp on the politics in the north is great. If you are on twitter id follow you?

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  13. The Britnat lowlife turd that is GWC stinks out this site and makes it unreadable.

    GWC needs to be sent down to the sewers where the turd belongs.

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    1. I think it's useful to have a creature like that commenting on the site. It let's others see what kind of scum we're up against. We saw with the "protest" at Holyrood last week, and with the dozens of bigots jeering the AUOB marches, that they are trying to turn this into a sectarian issue. That will work with the stupid and the brainwashed (not much washing required), but hopefully it will drive the more intelligent away from the unionist cause.

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  14. Hi James, can I ask how much this poll cost please as I would be interested in crowdfunding a similar one in the north of Ireland? I see £6.2K was raised but not sure if all spent or if only half that is required for a poll.

    Thanks

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