Tuesday, January 14, 2020

FUNDRAISER: Help Scot Goes Pop commission a post-election poll on independence

It was suggested to me earlier today that the time may now be right for Scot Goes Pop to crowdfund its first opinion poll, mainly because it's really, really odd that no media organisation has commissioned a poll measuring independence support since the general election. There are plausible grounds for thinking the SNP's victory may have triggered a Yes surge, which may last weeks, or months, or indefinitely - but we'll never know unless polling is actually conducted. Not for the first time, we may have no option but to take matters into our own hands.

Click here to go direct to the fundraising page.

Hi, my name's James Kelly, and I run the Scottish pro-independence blog Scot Goes Pop, which has a particular focus on opinion poll analysis. Remarkably, since the SNP's landslide general election victory in mid-December, there have been no opinion polls measuring support for independence. This leaves a major gap in our knowledge. In the immediate aftermath of the Leave vote in 2016, two polls were published showing a significant swing towards Yes - but if those polls hadn't been commissioned at the right time, we'd never have known that the surge had even happened, because it later subsided. It's possible (and I only say possible) that we're currently living through a post-election Yes surge that will be completely lost to the history books because nobody bothered to commission a poll. But this isn't just of academic interest - the publication of a poll showing a Yes lead at a time like this could in itself have an impact on public opinion, and help to shape the debate on Boris Johnson's outrageous attempt to stop the people of Scotland deciding their own future.

With your help, Scot Goes Pop will commission its first opinion poll, asking how people would vote on the referendum question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" There will hopefully also be supplementary questions.

A few points to bear in mind -

* There is absolutely no guarantee whatsoever that we'll get the result we want. Polls have surprised us plenty of times before. But even if the numbers are disappointing, it's surely a good thing if the independence question is no longer neglected by polls.

* If there are excess funds (or if not enough is raised to commission a poll), I'll consult with readers on what to do. Ideally the money would be ring-fenced for future polling, but if after a reasonable period of time no polling is possible or required, the funds could be dispersed to other pro-independence causes.

* There's always a chance that a poll will suddenly appear while this fundraiser is underway - if that happens, it would still be my intention to go ahead. There'd still be value in getting a second opinion from a different polling firm.

Let's break the silence on current support for independence - because the only person that silence suits is Boris Johnson.

Click here if you'd like to donate.

78 comments:

  1. What polling company are you planning to use?

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  2. what's ballpark figure to commission a poll

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  3. Well, the answer we have been waiting for.
    Get it right up ye, sweaties.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Right back at you Beer Bellied, Knotted Hanky wearing, Morris Dancing, Black pudding eating, Racist Twat!

      Delete
    2. FFS another Britnat turd pitches up.

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  4. So glad I'm not a pathetic, miserable, eyes to the floor boot licking unionist the day.

    So much for your English 'friends' eh unionists. Friends don't take away your vote and threaten you with violence.

    If the EU commission had send the UK a letter like Johnson's I'd have voted Leave in a second. No sweaty little fascist shit takes my vote off me.

    I'll chip in James. Anything that helps beat these English imperial c**ts.

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  5. Unionist Media BDSM ClubJanuary 14, 2020 at 2:33 PM

    Hats off, James. Donation made.

    We need to stop relying on corporations to poll on indy when we need them to. This should become a fairly regular SGP poll IMO.

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  6. The Welsh discover they are prisoners beneath the English fascist scum jackboot too.

    https://twitter.com/AMCarwyn/status/1217072683160080387

    Welsh were quite unionist. That won't last very long if they're now an English colony.

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  7. Unionist Media BDSM ClubJanuary 14, 2020 at 3:44 PM

    £1,098 raised of £4,000 target in just over an hour.

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  8. Good shout James, looking forward to the results of the poll.

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  9. I'd suggest maybe Survation or MORI James.

    Panelbase are rather unreliable. 7% out is just embarrassing.

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    1. MORI in fact were almost spot on. AAD the lowest of all, with Survation in second place.

      MORI got 50% Yes (Survation 49%), so we can assume that is the most correct Yes value we have pre-election.

      the fact that SNP was slightly underestimated suggests it may more properly have been 51% Yes.

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  10. 332 years since the Glorious Revolution where the last King who thought he was ordained by a bloke called God got kicked into touch. I propose a crowd fund to commemorate and provide a new banner to the memory of King Billy Prince of Orange.

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    1. I propose a crowd fund to sweep up the Britnat turd that keeps stinking out this site. Yes thats GWC the lowlife Britnat turd.

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  11. In 2014, many nationalists said they thought the outcome was fixed.

    Well, it absolutely is this time. No paranoia here. No wild conspiracy theories. The unionists lost the election so simply ended democracy. They've stuffed the ballot boxes before everyone's eyes.

    This is what the Brits did to the Kenyans before the rounded them up in concentration camps and shot massacred them.

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    1. I think you need a lie down.

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    2. I voted Naw six times in the 2014 referendum. An old trick used by Irish Republicans digging up the dead.

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    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    4. No, it's just pathetic, cowardly, booklickers that lie down when English fascist scum take away their right to vote.

      Before, the English Tories were my political opponents. We might spar a bit across the chamber, but that's how far it went. They have just declared themselves my enemy / my country's enemy and all that entails.

      No c**t takes my vote away from me. My grandparents fought the nazis for it; not so some racist scum from England could try and do what hilter failed to.

      If there's no ballot box, then it's not friendly any more.

      I've said it before. If you want things civil, then bring back free democracy.

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    5. "We might spar a bit across the chamber"? Are you a member of parliament?

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    6. So what do you intend to do about it Scottish Skier?

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    7. That's not the business of fascist scum.

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    8. The saltmine just reached maximum production.

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  12. You wonder how fascism can rise in other countries.
    Well, I suppose this is how.
    I'm still gobsmacked, to be honest.
    The UK ceases to be a democracy.
    The UK ceases to be a union of consent.

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    Replies
    1. It was about independence before. Now it is about freedom and democracy.

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    2. Skier you are a Paddy not a Scot. Go home and keep out of our business.

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    3. Boris Johnson's a Limey not a Scot, racism and sectarianism only work one way for you kid?

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    4. As no longer the government of Scotland by democratic consent, the fascist scum that are the English Tories can keep the fuck out of my country's business.

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    5. Only people allowed to influence Scottish politics are Scots.
      Oh and 400 year old Dutch kings.
      Amirite?

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  13. I think that this is just the tiniest bit populist, James. You really need to check whether you are remaining true to the ideals of the Higher European Civilisation in initiating something which the ages may one day judge to be akin to an imperfectly presentation of Aida.

    I confess that your actions rekindle my sensitivities and doubts about the promiscuous cultural practices of such a former associate as Constantine Mudge. Even now we mourn his enforced absence from the Valhalla of the Aesthetes.

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    1. Pursuant to the elucidation of one's views on the 'popularity' of certain elements of the Salzburger Festspiele, one clarified further one's preference for the cultural glories of Bayreuth and Bregenz. Sadly, this ushered in a volley of criticism, including an unwarranted attack on the 2019 programme at Avignon.

      One regrets one's exposure to the vulgarity of many of the responses whilst never regretting the decision to place oneself in the firing line.

      The nadir of the responses was one that suggested Bregenz would receive a far wider audience were Andre Rieu to be invited to perform.

      Delete
  14. It needs a video appeal from Random Totty or it ain't gonna fly!

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  15. I told English racist hatred of Scots was visceral.

    Well, now you have it. We actually have to start a civil rights campaign in our own country to win the very basic right to vote in free in fair elections where the result is respected.

    We will need some sort of symbol to wear representing the fight for democracy, free from English fascism. Something our sports stars can comfortably put on which can be seen on camera etc. That way it's talked about across the world. We can disrupt English matches too. Pitch invasions etc.

    Start making your banners for internationals. Democracy must be defended.

    I would never, ever have approved of 'English fascist scum out of Scotland' etc banners, but you can't argue about folk waving that now. They've been proven right. Johnson isn't PM by consent any more.

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    1. No need to mention the English.

      Stop The British Project would do.

      Visca nationalism!

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    2. It is the English government I'm afraid. It can only be the British government if their is consent from Scotland. Johnson withdrew that today from Scotland and invalidated 2014.

      Of course it's not the fault of most English folks, but it's the English government and we need to be honest about that. Them too.

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  16. Happy to chip in. It would also be interesting to ask how many would vote in a poll not supported by a section 30 (particularly the differential turnout between yes and no) - i.e. is such a poll likely to be boycotted; and possibly more detailed questioning on whether alternative mandates (e.g. Holyrood list vote, mass triggering of by-elections) would be supported.

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    1. Unionist Media BDSM ClubJanuary 14, 2020 at 7:51 PM

      Good suggestion. The poll could also ask who people believe should have the final say on whether or a referendum is held, Holyrood or Westminster.

      The response to this fundraiser has been so good (target nearly met within a few hours) it holds out the prospect of this becoming a regular feature of this site. So glad James had the plums to go for this.

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    2. I would hope that it could be a regular feature, every three months or so until Scotland becomes Independent.

      As an aside I have always been of the opinion that regular polling is something a properly organised grass roots could do by themselves with volenteers if properly instructed and guided. A thought for another day maybe.

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    3. Unionist Media BDSM ClubJanuary 14, 2020 at 8:06 PM

      Definitely. Too many times over the years we've been left in the dark due to the Unionist media or even the SNP failing to commission polls at crucial times such as this. Polling will be more important than ever in the coming months, especially if we need to establish that Yes is now *permanently* ahead, which changes everything.

      I was surprised the figure James aimed for here was as low as £4000 but if that's enough for a poll then we should be able to do this regularly. What a great response he got today.

      Delete
    4. Unionist Media BDSM ClubJanuary 14, 2020 at 8:28 PM

      The poll should also take place in early February, after we've been dragged out of the EU.

      Delete
  17. If Britain leaves the EU, how would you vote in a referendum on Scottish independence?
    52% Yes
    48% No

    Panelbase underestimated SNP share in this poll by 7%

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    1. Why does GWC post messages under the name of Scottish Skier then reply to them?

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  18. Donated .... go for it, James !!!

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  19. Well done on exceeded the target in one day, looks like you were offering something people wanted to be provided with.

    When it comes to polls and the questions to be asked I think the funds for getting one are in the best hands. Looking forward to reading the results here on Scot Goes Pop.

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  20. As per PNR.
    Donated, now let's see how our nation sees it.

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  21. I heard that turd Brian Whittle on the Nine suggesting there was no support for Indy ref 2. Making it up of course. I have donated, this could be very important in the battle ahead.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. If the Scottish Government proposed another Scottish independence referendum, should the UK Government prevent or allow a referendum to take place?
      36% Prevent it
      64% Allow it to take place

      BMG September 2019.

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    3. Do you think the Scottish government or the UK government should have the final say on deciding if there should be a second independence referendum?
      58% Scottish Government
      42% UK Government

      Survation, June 2019.

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  22. I think Johnson may have just lit the fuse that ignites those that for the last few years haven't paid much attention at all to the Independnce issue and lets be realistic that is the great majority of people.

    Sure it's alwys been there in the background but just under the surface, something that is never much spoken of at work or in the pub with your mates. Today pronoucement by Johnson might just change that somewhat.

    We v=can expect the media to ignore it again after tomorrows newspapers for a bit, but it's not going to go away. It's now down to Nicola sturgeon and the Scottish government with our MP's in Westminster to make sure of that.

    The goal in the short term has to be to keep this in the news as best we can, the more surprises the better. Let's see what your poll brings James, that's our starting point.

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    1. Unionist Media BDSM ClubJanuary 14, 2020 at 10:11 PM

      "I think Johnson may have just lit the fuse that ignites those that for the last few years haven't paid much attention at all to the Independnce issue and lets be realistic that is the great majority of people."

      Will be even better when the SNP can keep forcing him to defend his stand in the Commons. A letter is one thing, but footage of Johnson's repugnant personality (and Alister Jack's) handing down colonialist dismissals is the perfect shareable media to keep Yes support increasing.

      Which by the way: fuck them, and fuck the Unionists so servile they actually get off on such national degradation. Such people becoming entirely irrelevant to Scottish life will be one of the sweetest rewards of independence.

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  23. Thatcher had a mandate because Scots, like mugs, kept on voting Labour and not SNP. She said time and again that if the Scots didn't like her policies, they just needed to vote SNP to get independence.

    Johnson is English fascist scum with not a shred of a democratic mandate to deny the will of the people of a neighboring country the right to vote.

    He's nothing but a sweaty little racist shit of a man. A weak, pathetic, slimy turd. Makes Gove look like someone of stature.

    He won't last long though. The economy is going to hell in a handcart and he's already more unpopular than a wet fart in a lift. Mass emigration of skilled workers is underway while the English have no money in their pockets left to spend. Worst retail sales in 25 years and growth now effectively zero with much further to fall in it's decline since 2016.

    He'll have the English coming for him with pitchforks never mind the Scots.

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  24. James

    can you get a poll done based on the referendum franchise not the GE franchise?

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  25. Skier is an Irish Taig English hating racist infiltrator.

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  26. Pretty pathetic frankly.

    It was already over target when I came to look which is just as well because I'm skint, brassic, without means, on bread and water, no cake for me (not true there's still Christmas cake). So rather than scrape a fiver tops this time, I'll give to the next.

    Great idea James, and you at least will make sure there's no leading questions, or positional preamble bias inducers, unlike some polls I could mention ...

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  27. Was about to share this and realised I'm Twitter blocked by you probably because I use Wings block list and you blocked each other etc. Anyway, I've unblocked you so if you unblock @craigthepict I'll share.

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  28. Skier has broken his EU work directive by the hours he puts in.

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  29. So that's it then. Nothing can happen this side of the 2021 election and even after that there are no guarantees of anything. Sturgeon will try to rally the faithful with some vague and unoriginal pronouncements - but even the most diehard nationalists are fed up of that. They want ACTION. But Sturgeon is in no position to deliver.

    Anyway, I just stopped by to sample the salt. I couldn't resist after seeing Boris' letter today. What a man! What a leader!

    Kind regards

    Aldo

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    1. Smell that sniff sniff it's the smell of fear.

      £4500 raised in less than 12 hours, still climbing too as Independence supporters put their money where their mouth is.

      What a leader! Right enough, since Johnson is the one who will give the Independence support the boost required to get us success in Indyref2.

      We'll erect a statue to him to be laughed at. What a leader!

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    2. We'll see...

      But for the time being, it's great to be a unionist.

      Poor Skier has lost it altogether I see. I have tracked his progress over the last few years from sensible debater to a bit off the wall to absolute frothing at the mouth psychotic rage.

      Nationalism is bad for you kids!

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    3. Yeah you mean British Nationalism just like 1930s Germany
      when they came for the homeless and I did nothing, then they came for the gypsies and I still did nothing, then they came for the Jews and the Poles and anybody else they didn't like

      That who you support then Adolf because don't think your sectarianism makes you immune, to Boris Johnson you're still *Vermin* as he likes to call all Scots

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    4. "Poor Skier has lost it altogether I see. I have tracked his progress over the last few years from sensible debater to a bit off the wall to absolute frothing at the mouth psychotic rage."

      This should worry you as it shows the reaction of Scots to union in general, and so tells you how close we are to the end. I actually use to not mind the union that much back in the early days of devol. I had high hopes for it. Unionists killed my unionism. You in particularly were very influential.

      You will now note we are so close to the end that England has resorted to just cancelling election results in Scotland if pro-indy parties win.

      On that basis, it's are down to only a few years, maybe months let, based on global historical precedent.

      Once the hearts and minds are lost, and it becomes an occupation - the situation we now enter - it never lasts long. The costs become too high.

      The great Brecession is our next item. Instability in England is only going to get much, much worse. Johnson's win has not solved anything, but made it all much worse. Scotland will soon be the least of his problems.

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    5. If you take away the right of people to vote, then 'debate' ceases to have purpose. Is it a surprise if it then stops?

      I'd keep quiet in the streets about the fact you have taken the vote away from people. Simply campaigning for the Tories might have got you an earful, but cancelling elections / taking away people's right to vote / free democracy is quite another.

      Johnson has just ensured the unionists will never win again in Scotland. Elections will have to be cancelled permanently because the indy parties will win bigger each time. And as folk wake up to the fact England has gone colonial, you will need troops.

      I'd have thought this would all be obvious from NI. And shit, it was massively pro-union back in the day!

      That's the thing about fascists, they're not very bright, and have little understanding of the most basic concepts.

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  30. Scottish Skier hit the back of the net with his post today. He was absolutely spot on. Johnson is a dictator and the UK is a facist state if you deny the right of people to vote when they disagree with your policies.

    I'm afraid that won't wash for very long and in fact will ensure Scotland votes emphatically to become an Indepnedent country once again. We don't like dictators up here.

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    1. You jock joke real fascists disagreed with the 2014 referendum immediately the result was announced. Now go and wave your saltire/EU flags. Scotland will not be handed over to the EU fascists. In any case most of you are Irish descendents. We Unionists are the real Scots with Irn Bru in our blood.

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  31. It's truely sad that so many Britnats end up demonstrating that they are just lowlife Britnat turds like GWC.

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  32. I think the mistake you guys make is that you are fighting this huge war in your head against "fascism" etc. Take a look outside today. You will see a peaceful, ordered and happy society of people going about their business. We aren't on the brink of anything. This isn't a dictatorship either. You just can't get everything you want all of the time.

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  33. Might it be an idea to wait until a week or so AFTER 'brexit day' until such a poll takes place, in order to gauge public opinion on where we're at after almost 4 years of constant Brexit debate?

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