Sunday, December 1, 2019

Video: Is the Tory lead narrowing?

A few weeks ago when I was on holiday and daydreaming, I realised a general election probably wasn't far off, and I had the bright idea (ahem) that I might mix things up a bit during the campaign by posting some short videos to keep you updated on the polling state of play.  So I finally got around to investing in a camera a few days ago...and discovered to my embarrassment that the picture and sound quality was marginally worse than the camera on my phone.  However, I was geared up to go ahead, so I decided to just do it with my phone.  Do I care about looking amateurish?  Pah, who cares about looking amateurish.  But future episodes might be in the form of a podcast, because a) making this video was far more time-consuming than expected, and b) I've got a proper microphone, so maybe I should work with what I've actually got.

Anyway, see what you think.  Tonight I'm discussing the batch of GB-wide polls in the Sunday papers, which paint a mixed picture, but on the whole suggest there may have been a narrowing of the gap.




85 comments:

  1. BMG 39 to 35 . ??? That's closing!

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  2. Enjoyed the video. Effective way of summarising and commenting on a lot of contradictory polling information. Also fascinating glimpse of SGP global HQ.

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    1. Agreed. It is kind of important that the reality based community - i.e. us - has information in easily digestible chunks.

      Also a fascinating glimpse of James Kelly's fridge!

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  3. First faint squeaky bum sounds being carried by the wind certainly.

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  4. It's looking like we're heading for a Tory majority. If so.. the SNP's power of influence at Westminster will be next to zero except for having a voice in the house. The new Tory government might feel they now have the power to destroy the SP (either by stealth or quickly). With most of the media controlled by Westminster, and so many brit-nat-scots, it's going to be a big challenge to get indyref2 and win it.

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    1. Even if Johnson wins he'll co-operate with the Scottish government, oh he'll make all the noises against and wave his arms around but in the end he has to deliver a trade deal with the EU and any attempt to shut down Scotland will be fraught with difficulty over England declaring itself a dictatorship especially as they're in trouble with the UN for not removing themselves from the Chagos islands

      Nicola Sturgeon hasn't been backwards and forwards to Brussels for coffee and sticky buns, she knows what Johnson and his cronies know, America will not save England while they themselves are having difficulties in their own trade war with the EU, to coin a phrase *England will stand alone*
      and without the EU and America and the UN and almost anybody else you can mention, they'll lose and they know it

      When Nicola Sturgeon says there will be a referendum when she says there will, there will

      Winning it is up to the people to vote for it

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    2. Well, the sticky buns are good!!

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  5. This is heroic video of President Jamez at the South Pole.

    Of course it is your option to subscribe but please understand we have all contact and ISP in file if you are 1% who does not support or endorse in ballot. I think you will know what we mean.

    Always when our leader does analysis he has ice-water in his veins but strong feelings for his nation and his next video will be on horse in Siberia.

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    1. TOP TIP. Only tweet when sober.

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    2. Border Guard,

      I have to agree with Grosscup. That was stream of uncounciousness.

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    3. Also I should say that Tesco has cut price of cream Jerez. Is very unusual before Christmas.

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  6. Hey James - great addition to the blog. Just keep putting them out and get the experience of doing it. Great stuff.

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  7. I find it amusing how petty Britain Elects is.

    Notice how the two polls showing yes 50% or above (Ashcroft and MORI) are not included in the PoP? These would make the correct average 50% Yes. If I recall correctly, all results from the recent Scotland MORI were tweeted apart from that one.

    Squeaky bum here for sure.

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    1. From memory, it is run by a Labour Party member.

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  8. From Peter Curran on twitter:

    "A new #Panelbase poll in #Sunday_Times shows an #independence_referendum remains too close to call.

    The poll also finds #SNP significantly ahead in voting intentions for Holyrood on 43% of the vote - with the Tories trailing 17 points behind on 26% and Labour on just 17%."

    They kept that quiet. SNP vote seems to be quite firm.

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    1. We can expect Holyrood and Westminster intentions to look similar at this time.

      The poll also shows a majority for a new iref associated with brexit, with considerable shifts to that being held essentially immediately.

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    2. This was the Holyrood part of last week's poll kept back.

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    3. I see. So the two were close.

      SNP are doing vastly better in Holyrood polls in this term than they were 2011-2016. Back then, they were level pegging with Labour at times.

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  9. UK wide, it seems to me that Labour have surged 3% to 33% on average in the past 5 days or so. The Tories have stalled at 42%. This would mean their lead is now less than 10 points, so bums starting to squeak.

    I can see absolutely no movement in Scotland subsamples. Brex has shifted to con and they might manage to pull of the same share as last time on a lower turnout. No sign of any movement to Labour, who have lost in roughly equal measure to the SNP and Libs compared to 2017.

    SNP vote solid, and at least into the low 40's. Possibly mid 40's.

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    1. Yea Conservative vote looking around the same as 2017 despite the Conservatives not having a good campaign all this seems to of done is stop the Conservative share getting into the mid 40s.

      Labour down approx 10 points on 2017, chunk of which probably gone to the Lib Dems. They might be able to squeeze a bit of that vote back to them, but can't see a huge number of center ground remain Lib Dem voters switching.

      Think Conservatives will end up with a majority of around 30, sadly.

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    2. UK-wide, Labour are just about where they were this time in 2017, and following a similar surge trend. However, it's running maybe 5 days behind this time, so may not be enough.

      A majority of just 30 would not last very long. It's too weak. The UK will be in a extremely weak position in trade negotiations, meaning it would need to make so many concessions, including territory (N. Ireland), that Johnson would be constantly fire fighting rebellions.

      Major had a majority of 50+ and he had a nightmare of a time. A weak PM unable to do very little of note as a result.

      Johnson needs majority of 100 or so on 50%+ of the vote to make brexit work. It's that or form a coalition to get cross-party and population support. With a majority of the population against brexit, and an overwhelming majority against the Tory plan for it, it has little hope of being anything but a disaster.

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    3. Scottish Skier,

      I'd have thought that BoJo has already sifted out of the Conservative Party anyone who didn't want to jump off a cliff edge with him. What we appear to me to have is BoJo and his fan club masquerading as the Conservative Party. I say this, because the leavers have already left and I cannot, for the life of me, see significant internal dissent. Is there anyone left standing on the Conservative ticket that actually opposes "leave under any and all circumstances"?

      To that extent I think they have tied themselves to a sinking ship, the good ship BoJo will sink on it's back. The question is whether he will do a Titanic and take steerage - y'know, most of us - down to his murky depths.



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    4. Scottish Skier .In 1992 Major only won a majority of 21.
      I just can't see past a Tory majority down south .It's something we have no control over in Scotland .We need a good return of SNP MPs what ever .Over 40 perhaps as much as 45 is very doable .
      Does anyone know the details of the Panelbase poll Peter Curran tweeted it just says neck and neck for Indy .The headline figure of 43% SNP just "feels" right .We could get in to the mid 40 s in the next week .Nicola seems on top of her game this election and and lots of positive comments on the doors .All set up for a wee SNP surge in the last few days

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    5. Oops I read the numbers wrong (previous seats won), but 21 and 30 are little different.

      If you want to see what a solid majority where you can bulldoze looks like, you need to look at Thatcher 83/87 and Blair 97/01.

      Brexit will take 10-15 years of hard negotiations. Johnson needs a majority that he can totally control for at least that, or England could end up rejoining in 5 years.

      Or he needs some sort of national unity government. Otherwise, brexit is just going to be a total disaster of epic proportions.

      Currently, he seems just focused on getting enough MPs to pull everyone over the cliff edge. There's zero plan for what happens after that. There never has been for brexit.

      The problem is for brexiters, is that they see this as England gaining it's independence.

      Brexit isn't independence, not even for Britain. Britain is already independent. Brexit is just a boring old trade deal. There is no sovereignty being gained with brexit, just a change in trade rules.

      There is this imaginary fantasy that once brexit begins, that will be it. Countries going for indy never go back. But, as noted, this isn't indy, do it won't work that way at all.

      The only way brexiters can actually seek that English sovereignty rebirth they dream of, is for England to become independent. Hopefully, they'll realise that at some point.

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    6. Electoral calculus have the Tories on 342 seats now. That's just six more than Major, and with Labour 10 pts behind.

      I have the gap smaller already, at about 9 points and closing.

      Tories have been in power for nearly a decade now, completely screwing up everything, from the constitution to the economy. In 3 consecutive elections, they have failed to win commanding majorities, even in the face of a complete mess of a labour party.

      It would be miraculous if Johnson managed anything other than a weak, precarious, small, incompetent racist buffoon of a majority.

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    7. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    8. An oportunatly timed tweet:
      Current Polling Compared to This Time in the 2017 Campaign:

      CON: 42.6% (-2.1)
      LAB: 32.9% (-2.1)
      LDM: 13.3% (+5.1)
      BXP: 3.5% (-0.9)*
      GRN: 2.9% (+0.9)

      *Changes w/ UKIP vote share.

      https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK

      I absolutely would love to see the Conservatives not get a majority but can't see it at the moment.

      Of course the bigger the majority the better, but remember the Conservatives would have no real effective opposition. Labour will tear its self apart and then elect a Corbyn clone, who will be as ineffective as him, the Lib Dems will be licking their wounds and the SNP will be preoccupied in the courts to hold a second indyref. In those circumstances a majority of 30 can do more than the figure will imply.

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    9. I don't know how you can't see it given you just posted election data from 2017 showing how things are almost identical, with the same Tory lead (actually, their lead appears smaller at 9 points right now), yet a lower share of the vote, ergo an more precarious position.

      If in one week we are looking at the same thing, then Johnson will be able to start breathing easier.

      As things stand, he's stalled, and Labour are gaining. It may be that he watches his lead eaten a little more each day.

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    10. That's my point, in 2017 the Conservatives went on to loose a couple more points helping Labour catch up. Can't see this happening this time, think Conservatives will end up around what they are polling now. Labours only hope is to squeeze the Lib Dem vote sub 10% and can't see that happening; honestly can't see what they can offer Lib Dem voters that they have not already tired.

      It's certainly not comfortable for the Conservatives, but Labour have thrown everything they can out there, they even had 'proof' that the NHS was going to be sold off last week and it's not moving the needle enough.

      As you say still some time left, but not much.

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    11. In England, unless you are in seat where the Lib Dems are in competition with the Tories, then a vote for them is just plain stupid if you want to Remain in the EU or a soft brexit. It's crap, but that's FPTP. Labour will your only hope, Dianne Abbot and all.

      Which is why in 2017, a Lib-Lab swing ensured a Tory minority.

      If everyone just votes broadly the same way again, the result will be the same. Which is what I suspect may happen in the end.

      As I keep saying, there has been no change what people want, nor what is on offer from the parties. Only the Tories are slightly more unhinged this time. That seems to be putting people off, as they have a lower share of the vote this time around. Also looks like they may have peaked about 2 weeks ago.

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    12. The big change is that Corbyn/Labour have spent the last two years being ambiguous at best over Brexit and pushing the center left away from Labour. Hence why the Libs have reversed to some part of the Lib-Lab swing of 2017. Of course the Conservatives would of lost its remainder vote in some part to Labour and the Lib Dems but they had the Brexit Party vote to fall back on.

      Labour have time, but as I said if they don't find a way of luring the center ground/remain vote the Conservatives will win.

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    13. Labour were ambiguous last time. Nothing's changed. Zero. Zilch. Apart from all UK parties / leaders are much less popular.

      The Libs have achieved nothing more than getting their usual 'protest' ~20% in polls mid-term which they then promptly lose steadily as election day approaches.

      Labour are very unpopular, but just slightly less so than the Libs, and not far behind the hated conservatives. The Libs are just remain Tories; they'll only pick up left votes tactically as folks hold their nose. They've done nothing but lose vote share since the beginning of October, net directly to Labour.

      The centre left may not be corbyn fans, but Swinson is a true blue Tory. She was even a member of a previous Tory government.

      Folks can't stand Johnson either. It's a plague on all their houses.

      The UK's utterly fucked, and ripe for another hung parliament or weak, useless, unstable small Tory majority which leads it over a cliff, then promptly falls apart when dealing with the reality of what that means.

      Britannia is sinking and there's really nothing that can be done to stop that now.

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  10. Buy a fridge from me and I'll give you 28% off a 2050 Referendum!

    Make December 13th your best Black Friday ever!!

    [runs jingle]

    You'll Drop Your Jaw At Carlaw.

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    1. Colonel R D WindbagDecember 1, 2019 at 1:56 PM

      Any discount on oil paintings?

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  11. Just got this leaflet through the door https://twitter.com/_Ungagged/status/1201115162301874176

    I wonder if it might do enough damage that it unseats Swinson?

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    1. I'll be honest with you mate, not with that horrible font. The content is good but would you consider making it more readable?

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  12. Sorry to go off topic but Neale could do with some help. A supporter of Indepence makes a better MP than the Labour candidate!
    https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/general-election-2019-2/comments#start

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  13. Can somebody please stop all the nonsense praise for the immigrants who bravely stood up to the evil terrorist. Immigration good.
    Other people may just have to mention that said terrorist was also an immigrant. Immigration bad!

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    1. The terrorist wasn't an immigrant. He was English. Born and raised in Stoke on Trent.

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    2. Enoch did warn us about people with different cultures and their propensity for intolerance. We ignored him and innocent people have died. Islam is a death Cult.

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    3. That's pretty anti-English GWC.

      Don't tar all English people with the same brush.

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    4. Johnson is saying that on the Tory watch, 74 terrorist prisoners were released early.

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    5. I thought they were Muslims living in Britain! Muslims do not have a country but are universal.

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    6. If so, wtf was 'Islamic State' about?

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    7. Just killing people since the 7th century.

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    8. Like in the crusades? Or the inquisition? Or maybe the Glasgow pub bombings?

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    9. Looks like the Malta Mafia ruling class has done well since joining the EU. They even blow up journalists who whistle blow.

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  14. Skier, did you frequent a Glesga pub during the 7th Cen AD? You have been around a while.

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    1. Bartholomew HendrycksDecember 1, 2019 at 10:46 PM

      GWC is a sophisticated, if louche, boulevardier.

      Delete
  15. Excellent James ..... enjoy your analysis .... make this a permanent feature on your Blog !!

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  16. Apparently that translates, according to Google, as

    "Pioneers of the Two Holy Mosques December 1, 2019 at 11:28 PM

    Company leak detection water Ahsa

    Company insulation foam in Dammam



    House cleaning company."

    I have zero idea whether that is accurate or not.

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  17. Survation Con Lead over lab down from 14 to 9 points 18-30 Nov.

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1201298682450190336

    Looking Like Labour hit 33% 3-5 days ago. Could be touching 35% now.

    Support for Remain and Corbyn increasing.

    UK wide. I'm not seeing anything happening here really.

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    1. Only a vote for Labour will give radical change. They should have stood by leaving the EU as stated in their last manifesto.

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    2. Yes, a second EUref is pretty radical.

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    3. Naw surely we need a third and forth. You democrats need to keep having referendums until you win.

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    4. That's what democracy is about; voting very regularly on things. It's why constitutions always legally enforce new votes on how a country should be governed no longer than every 5 years or so. That and in 5 years your electorate is totally different, often by 10% or more.

      As much as 16% of the Scots electorate have never had the chance to vote on Scottish indy for example. They were too young or didn't live here at the time.

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    5. So it's keep voting until the Nat si anti English elitists rule then sell us out to the EU.

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    6. I've voted in 2 EU referendums, so I don't mind voting in a 3rd.
      I've voted in 1 Independence referendum, so I don't mind voting in a 2nd.
      PS. Only very lazy and/or slightly hystetical people do.

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  18. Still can see anything but a small majority for the Tories.Corbyn statements about the rehabilitation of terrorists won't go down well. His unpopularity with the Northern English working class will cost him.It also seems that two of their big hitters Emily Thornberry and Keir Stammer are being kept off the TV screens .Is this because they are Remainers?
    All the Tory candidates have signed up to Boris deal and he has got rid of most of the one nation Tories and replaced them with right wing Brexiteers.
    A Johnson majority means a hard Brexit and an administration to the right of Thatcher.
    As I said there is nothing we can do in Scotland except returning the biggest number of SNP MPs as possible .A Labour surge could endanger that .I lived through the 80s and 90s and can remember the line "only Labour can get rid of the Tories" I just don't want a new generation of Scots crossing their fingers and hoping the rest of the UK see sense .
    As far as I can see the Tories still have a lead of around 9 or 10% enough to win a comfortable majority

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    1. England elects updated their average.

      https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201490383810768896

      It's still lagging too far behind, but it shows Labour accelerating rapidly, and they must have hit 33% around 3-5 days ago now. They could well be on 35% already, if not in the next day or two.

      As noted previously, I've seen no such movement in Scottish polling. This is different to last time where Labour began gaining ground in Scotland the moment the GE was announced. Lets hope it stays that way because Scots labour MPs are f'n useless, particularly in the face of a Tory majority.

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  20. I wouldn't say Labour aren't making up ground. On a weekly average of subsamples they are on 19%. YouGov have them at 21%; we'll need to see what they get in the next poll but 21% is the highest sample since April. YouGov's MRP had them on 18%.

    If this uptick comes from unionist parties then that's good. If it starts coming from the SNP it's not helpful

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    1. Subsamples are a bit too volatile to look at on a weekly basis. But that can mean problems if things start to move quickly.

      I see absolutely zero movement for Labour, which agrees with full Scottish polling.

      The only movement I've seen late is the mini England one of Brx moving to Con. That's clear enough in subsamples and full Scottish. However, in reality, it's not progress, as they are just at best back to where they consistently sat up until march of this year when brexit didn't happen.

      The Corbyn and return to socialism was a factor last time I think. This time it's not and everyone knows Corbyn is pro-brexit. A total turn off for young voters. In England however, if you want to stop the Tories and a hard brexit, what choice do you have....

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    2. My subsamples PoP has Labour on 15%, which is 1% below what our recent full Scottish polls have. It's been like this since the spring.

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  21. If you live in England there is no choice but to vote Labour or you're stuck with Tories, and at least if you get Labour you'll have the benefit of seeing how the policies the SNP have introduced in Scotland to make the lives of poorer people better have worked
    Of course that's until Scotland gets itself right out of Englands Dodge City and moves on

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    1. Scottish food banks and falling over Scots in the streets of Scotland is something for the Scottish Nat sis to boast about. The rich getting richer.

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  22. "They could well be on 35% already"

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1201561507311628291

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (+1)
    LAB: 35% (+1)
    LDEM: 13% (-)
    BREX: 3% (-1)

    Jeez, it's like they heard me earlier.

    If this reflects movement over the past few days, the gap is now just 7%.

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    1. With that ICM poll electoral calculus the Tories will have a majority of 22 .Says SNP will lose 8 down to 27 ?

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    2. Can't see how the SNP would go down a few seats with an increased vote whilst the opposition have declined. If you look at the ICM sub samples the SNP vote has increased over their last 3 polls.

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  23. Once again Wings over Scotland Stuart Campbell vents his obsessional of Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP based on an invented article by well known truth sayers *The Scotsman* in the hope of promoting himself and his non existent party as defenders of Scottish womankind

    He couldn't give a monkeys one way or another about women, he's used his Blog so many times to insult most of them, but if the SNP lose he gets to continue his website on your money while asking for even more to fund his lifestyle and imaginary political aims

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    1. Your obsession with Stuart Campbell is pretty unhinged.

      Personally, I largely agree with his position, although I think he's just often plain wrong in terms of how he reads things.

      I personally am a heterosexual male. I know exactly what defines men vs women, and there's no persuading me otherwise, that's for sure! I imagine gays and lesbians will be in agreement.

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    2. Seems he has all the attributes to be a politician. Lying to the people is expected as Winston once said.

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    3. How odd!

      Sturgeon urges SNP members not to campaign for axed candidate.

      The headline from the National. An article where the disgusting sturgeon attacks N Hanvey for his, "anti-semitic comments".

      Interesting to see all the wokelords using the same phrasing. A cartoon image of a man who isn't even jewish can not be described as anti-semitic comments. Not on my planet.

      The man was stitched up by the same scum who are trying to oust J Cherry. With the full support of the odious sturgeon. A woman who helped her civil servants frame her predecessor at the cost of £500,000 and counting.

      She has to go. Nobody has any right to tell me I am not a sexually dimorphic mammal and live.

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    4. Nice to see mickey small pay a visit. Not brave enough to use his real name mind. There's gratitude considering that bella caledonia only exists because the Rev Stu helped his crowdfinder.

      In other news. S Macdonald putative MP for hiding behind furniture is another for the chop. No SNP politician should be working for MI5, supporting the integrity initiative and sharing showers with fake doctor jones.

      If anyone has his attention can they get him to explain how the Skripals were poisoned without anyone else who came into contact with them suffering the slightest ill effect. Or the chief nursing officer for the entire british army not recognising neurotoxin poisoning and allowing her daughter to provide first aid to the alleged victims.

      It's a conundrum of a paradox which has never been answered.

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    5. And the two Russian agents who flew to England for a visit to Salisbury Cathedral

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    6. "Nobody has any right to tell me I am not a sexually dimorphic mammal and live."

      In fairness, you're not a sexual anything. Your wasted life is spent crying on the internet about the women who shun you.

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    7. Quite à number of overwrought utterances here. They seem to be all over this posting like moths attracted to a flame.
      Quite à number of obsessions on display.

      Delete
  24. London swinging big to stop brexit and the Tories?


    London, Westminster voting intention:
    LAB: 47% (+8)
    CON: 30% (+1)
    LDEM: 15% (-4)
    GRN: 4% (-1)
    BREX: 3% (-3)

    via @YouGov, 28 Nov - 02 Dec
    Chgs. w/ Nov

    In 2017, the remaining 3-4% of the UKIP vote went straight to Labour in the final days.

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    1. I'm wondering how this relates to earlier constituency polls in places like Kensington and Wimbledon showing 20%+ swings to the LDs. Also D. Raab (with previous big majority) under pressure in Surrey. Maybe big differences between most of Inner London and Outer London?
      I'll take a guess that the map of the area south of the Severn / Wash line will end up lightly peppered with LibDem buckshot. Tories likely to have some sort of overall majority as they move "The South" up to the English West Midlands, Lincolnshire, Humberside &c.

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    2. That's Labour down 8 and Lib Dems up 6 since in London since 2017 .
      I am getting concerned that this Labour surge could impact in Scotland

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    3. That doesn't look like a Labour surge tbh

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  25. Swinson might be in trouble in East Dunbartonshore after all. Worth a look at this thread https://twitter.com/maximiliangapes/status/1201779641280802816

    Also seem some other comments attributed to SNP sources saying her seat is "hanging on a shoogily peg"

    If it happens that would be quite a capture for the SNP, it would finish Swinson and might force the Lib Dems in Scotland to rethink their approach

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  26. Swinson isn't popular in East Dunbartonshire, neither are the Lib Dems, the vote here was an anti SNP vote last time due to a particularly vile campaign waged against John Nicolson and the other factor being the SNP vote just didn't turn out

    East Dunbartonshire is a mostly older demographic so Tory Labour Lib Dems are all one and the same to the opposition of a SNP candidate and it's all about which party can beat them and they're difficult to canvass too because as older folk tend to do they listen and nod to everything you say then agree that you're right and the'll vote for you then they go and vote Tory or Lib Dem

    They're all SNP supporters till they get to the ballot box then revert to type

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  27. The latest YouGov subsample has the SNP at 52%. Tories at 25%, Lab at 11% LD at 7. A bit of sample variation.

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