Conservatives 339 (-20)
Labour 231 (+20)
SNP 41 (-2)
Liberal Democrats 15 (+2)
Plaid Cymru 4 (n/c)
Greens 1 (n/c)
Obviously the change figures in brackets are measured from the last update, not from the last election. The SNP's 41 seats would actually be a gain of six.
One of the SNP's two net 'losses' since the last update can be accounted for very simply by the self-inflicted wound in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, where Labour are estimated to now be eight points ahead.
The Tories are estimated to have moved very slightly ahead in Lanark and Hamilton East, which would explain their excitement about that constituency. But it's essentially a dead heat and doesn't look like the foregone conclusion that some people have been trying to portray.
YouGov agree with Focaldata in suggesting that the SNP have moved very slightly ahead in Angus, which contradicts the narrative in certain quarters that the north-east is a lost cause for the party.
Unfortunately the slight lead for the SNP in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross in the last update has been reversed, and the Lib Dems now have a bit of a cushion. But Focaldata still has that seat pencilled in as an SNP gain.
Unlike Focaldata, the YouGov projection has the SNP gaining Glasgow North-East, but it does look very tight, which might explain the noises about Labour becoming "increasingly confident" about holding seats of that sort. (With the propaganda stripped out, that might be code for "we're back in with a chance".)
Jo Swinson's chances in East Dunbartonshire appear to have strengthened, but only very slightly - she's now estimated to be 7% ahead. (Focaldata have her only 1% ahead.)
Moray is shown as a tie, incredibly. Aberdeen South and Banff & Buchan are also essentially coin tosses, albeit with the Tories fractionally ahead. The SNP are slightly ahead in Gordon and East Renfrewshire.
Philippa Whitford's seat of Central Ayrshire is too close to call, but she is estimated to still have a modest lead over the Tories.
The seats that the SNP were hoping to take from Labour all look very tight, and in some cases Labour have moved into the lead (or stayed in the lead). So that will increase fears of a 2017-style result due to a mini-recovery from Labour, and would explain the SNP's apparent tactical shift of moving resources to a defensive operation in current SNP seats. This certainly represents a change of mood, because the feedback I was hearing until very recently was that canvass returns for the SNP were exceptionally good. But the crucial point about this YouGov projection is that the SNP are implied to be offsetting any failures against Labour with a more competitive performance in Tory-held seats than has been widely billed of late. Let's hope that's right, otherwise there's a danger of a 2017-style result (or worse). YouGov's MRP did overestimate the SNP last time, but with a bit of luck they'll have changed their methodology to correct for that. Winning back seats like Angus and Moray would be an incredible boost. Too good to be true? Feel free to share your canvassing experiences in the comments section below.
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UPDATE: From a rough average it looks like the SNP are on around 41% of the national vote, which would be the same as the last update. Obviously an average might be misleading because two constituencies are much smaller than the others, but the SNP are strong in one of those two and weak in the other, so they should even themselves out. I haven't worked out averages for the other parties yet - I don't know if anyone wants to take the task on!
UPDATE II: The seat numbers for Scotland are..
Liberal Democrats 4