Tuesday, December 10, 2019

SNP projected to win 41 seats in new YouGov MRP data

YouGov MRP seats projection:

Conservatives 339 (-20) 
Labour 231 (+20) 
SNP 41 (-2) 
Liberal Democrats 15 (+2) 
Plaid Cymru 4 (n/c) 
Greens 1 (n/c)

Obviously the change figures in brackets are measured from the last update, not from the last election.  The SNP's 41 seats would actually be a gain of six.

One of the SNP's two net 'losses' since the last update can be accounted for very simply by the self-inflicted wound in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, where Labour are estimated to now be eight points ahead.

The Tories are estimated to have moved very slightly ahead in Lanark and Hamilton East, which would explain their excitement about that constituency.  But it's essentially a dead heat and doesn't look like the foregone conclusion that some people have been trying to portray.

YouGov agree with Focaldata in suggesting that the SNP have moved very slightly ahead in Angus, which contradicts the narrative in certain quarters that the north-east is a lost cause for the party.

Unfortunately the slight lead for the SNP in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross in the last update has been reversed, and the Lib Dems now have a bit of a cushion.  But Focaldata still has that seat pencilled in as an SNP gain.

Unlike Focaldata, the YouGov projection has the SNP gaining Glasgow North-East, but it does look very tight, which might explain the noises about Labour becoming "increasingly confident" about holding seats of that sort.  (With the propaganda stripped out, that might be code for "we're back in with a chance".)

Jo Swinson's chances in East Dunbartonshire appear to have strengthened, but only very slightly - she's now estimated to be 7% ahead.  (Focaldata have her only 1% ahead.)

Moray is shown as a tie, incredibly.  Aberdeen South and Banff & Buchan are also essentially coin tosses, albeit with the Tories fractionally ahead.  The SNP are slightly ahead in Gordon and East Renfrewshire.

Philippa Whitford's seat of Central Ayrshire is too close to call, but she is estimated to still have a modest lead over the Tories.

The seats that the SNP were hoping to take from Labour all look very tight, and in some cases Labour have moved into the lead (or stayed in the lead).  So that will increase fears of a 2017-style result due to a mini-recovery from Labour, and would explain the SNP's apparent tactical shift of moving resources to a defensive operation in current SNP seats.  This certainly represents a change of mood, because the feedback I was hearing until very recently was that canvass returns for the SNP were exceptionally good.  But the crucial point about this YouGov projection is that the SNP are implied to be offsetting any failures against Labour with a more competitive performance in Tory-held seats than has been widely billed of late.  Let's hope that's right, otherwise there's a danger of a 2017-style result (or worse).  YouGov's MRP did overestimate the SNP last time, but with a bit of luck they'll have changed their methodology to correct for that.  Winning back seats like Angus and Moray would be an incredible boost.  Too good to be true?  Feel free to share your canvassing experiences in the comments section below.

*  *  *

UPDATE: From a rough average it looks like the SNP are on around 41% of the national vote, which would be the same as the last update.  Obviously an average might be misleading because two constituencies are much smaller than the others, but the SNP are strong in one of those two and weak in the other, so they should even themselves out.  I haven't worked out averages for the other parties yet - I don't know if anyone wants to take the task on!

UPDATE II:  The seat numbers for Scotland are..

SNP 41
Conservatives 9
Labour 5
Liberal Democrats 4

77 comments:

  1. YouGov MRP overestimated the SNP last election. Let's hope the same is not true now. Because that's way too close for comfort.

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  2. The bookies say 45 SNP seats, I'll go with them I think

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  3. Looking at the Glasgow and Labour-held seats from last election, it seems like Labour have experienced that much dreaded last minute surge once again. A number of toss-ups, with Hugh Gaffney even a fair bit ahead in Coatbridge.

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    1. Looking at those seats you would expect Labour to be back at around the 27% they got last time, yet interestingly their increase only seems to have happened in seats they already held in the last election. If anything they have apparently fallen back in others you would expect them to gain in a national swing. Either the swings are very localised or there is something else happening there.

      Overall it looks very tight, and as other posters have said, a few % will make the difference between big SNP gains or net losses. The exit poll numbers that flash up on our screens could really say anything now but I am going to guess that the SNP will hold steady at around 35 seats.

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    2. The fact that Labour have apparently moved ahead in Rutherglen, after the SNP being significantly ahead just a couple of weeks ago, should be a massive red danger flag for the SNP. It was one of the early seats to topple in 2017, and was a nasty sign of things to come.

      I'm going to expect net losses, so if it's anything else on the night I will be pleasantly surprised.

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    3. It's a sign of people's complicated relationship with polls that it's possible for someone to use a projection of 41 seats as proof that the real number will be less than 35. Who knows. If the polls are wrong all bets are off anyway.

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    4. Once bitten twice shy, James. The most pessimistic of the 'final' projections last time round (YouGov too, incidentally) had the SNP on 44. As we all know now, the final result proved to be lower still for the SNP.

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    5. Yes, but the methodology doesn't remain static. In the standard polls there is weighting by 2017 vote, and I presume there must be some sort of correction in the MRP data as well.

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    6. I would also point out before 2017 SNP had 56 seats. That means You Gov projections in that period meant a net loss, as actually happened (even if true results have been worse). But now all polls are projecting seats gaining for SNP. I don't want to say everything is fine and anyone can go sleep calm because victory is locked, but there are reasons to not be so pessimist.

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    7. For what it's worth I became increasingly pessimistic about the SNP's chances at the EU elections, and was proven wrong then. I think it's become my coping mechanism post 2017.

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    8. Support for the SNP fell 10% over the course of the last campaign.

      The SNP went in on 47% consistently, and emerged at 37%. Full scottish polls were showing them as low as 36% well over a week before voting day.

      This time, the SNP share has held steady, even gained slightly on average, throughout.

      Labour have seen no surge either, with the Tories seemingly unable to make any progress on 2017. Corbyn's dithering over Europe and threats to take the vote off Scots is unlikely to help him.

      So the two elections may look somewhat the same, but there are fundamental differences.

      I'd say it's odds on that the SNP make at least some modest gains, and 41 seats+ seems reasonable.

      Turnout is key. While it's a revolting, racist hate-filled, anti-Scottish, English nationalist election that will not directly decide Scotland's future, folk should still hold their nose and take part.

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    9. "Full scottish polls were showing them as low as 36% well over a week before voting day"

      More accurate to say "One Scottish Poll was showing them as low as 36%..."

      Even more accurate to say that the three polls between that one and polling day overstated the SNP by 4%, 2% and 4% respectively.

      I just don't understand why you would be so selective about how you present your facts. Are you trying to fool yourself or everyone else on here?

      You are right about the trend through the campaign though. The trend for the SNP was downward in 2017, though not as catastrophically as the trend in the 2016 election where the SNP vote dropped around 15%.

      I must admit I am struggling to see why so many people in the SNP think Nicola is such a campaigning asset. She never seems to increase the SNP vote during campaigns and usually decreases it, sometimes substantially.

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  4. A lot closer in Moray than I thought it would be, which is encouraging.

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  5. This really is on a knife-edge.

    At the bottom end of this projection, the SNP could lose seats overall. At the top end they could gain 10 or more.

    Everything else being equal, turnout is going to be hugely influential.

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  6. Excuse my ignorance. Why is the confidence interval for the SNP [3%] at the bottom end while for all the other main parties it is in the middle?

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  7. Those North East seats are incredible. Very tight with projected SNP and Tory vote combined at or close to 90% in several cases.

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  8. I've got Focaldata giving the SNP with 44 seats

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  9. Battle for the union going on in the North East. Lots of snp would be backers but against another indy ref.... The snp vote is much more up for it and if Nicola could say something like its OK to vote snp and not believe in independence, as this is about keeping Boris out.... I think we would win them all back bar Aberdeen South and Aberdeenshire West

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  10. Was at a hustings in Kirriemuir (Angus) last night when Kirstene Hair didn't even turn up. Maurice Golden (Tory MSP) arrived up in her place looking very confident but left looking pale and shaken and was the first person out of the hall at the end of the evening. The other 3 candidates all got a much better reception and more applause than he did. He didn't even stay around to get his picture taken.

    Kirrie might not be representative of Angus and I guess that many elderly tory supporters will not venture out at night for such events. However the way that Kirstene Hair treated the electorate by not even bothering to turn up to a meeting (which had supposedly been rearranged to suit her availability) did not go down very well at all.

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  11. You Nat sis are numpties. The seats you win are irrelevant if the Tories get a working majority. According to STV chanel some people in Scotland are openly saying they will vote Tory. And why not if they have a choice between the Tartan Tories and Blue Tories but wish to remain in the UK. Vote Labour get rid of the two Tory parties.

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  12. I would be happy with 41 seats and the Tories down to 10 .That can be spun as 2017 was peak Yoon .
    Part of me still feels the SNP are doing a bit better than polls suggest but on the other hand I am just nervous that the bad weather will discourage SNP voters from turning out and the Tories will already have their postal votes in

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    1. Should you be voting in Irish elections? Not the UK.

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    2. A lot of SNP voters have postal for this election. All the polls in this election have the SNP voters as the more motivated to vote this time. The Tory leaflets are stirring up the Yes voters.

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    3. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ireland-has-third-highest-quality-of-life-in-world-says-un-report-1.4110646?fbclid=IwAR3m66DnpKYk3dOH08u8xxJKIiNm-i3MBO9LWMuao7Y7wH99j1qsgnspfe0

      Ireland has third highest quality of life in world, says UN report

      ...Norway topped the list, followed by Switzerland, with UK and US taking 15th and 16th places.

      Seems being a wee independent country is key.

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  13. Calm yir nerves a'bdy. It's gonnae be a guid nicht.

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  14. Just need to get through this relatively unscathed and then sit back on watch the Boris Johnson shit show. The stars will have aligned nicely for 2021.

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  15. So having a look at the some of the data, it does appear that Labour have moved ahead or are right behind the SNP in the seats they held in 2017, but there has been around a 5% swing against Labour to the SNP in most of the seats they were 2nd in. This seems to suggest Labour MPs are benefiting from incumbency, a more concentrated ground game or unionist tactical voting. Therefore hopefully any last minute boost for Labour will remain largely confined in the seats they already hold, and given the close nature of the seats a few may still be SNP gains regardless but it will be tight.

    The apparent SNP surge in Tory held seats seems rather against conventional wisdom, since they are mostly very unionist and Brexity areas. However, given the Tories were strongest in these places in 2017, maybe they've maxed out and there will be tactical voting going on against them since the SNP are the main competitors. I'm highly suspicious though but hopefully the SNP can make some inroads in these areas again.

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  16. It is striking how many ultra-marginal SNP/Tory seats are going to have a major, major effect on the Westminster balance. A tiny swing to the SNP from the YouGov projection would already wipe out half the projected Tory overall majority.

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  17. Does anyone know if the large number of SNP voters who stayed home in 2017 has an effect on the way these polls are weighted? Ie, would such voters who say they'll actually turn out this time be down-weighted, leading to a possible underestimation of the SNP vote?

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    1. It could be as the figures are weighted on the 2017 vote. If they do decide to come out this time it would underestimate the SNP vote.

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  18. YouGov official shares;

    SNP 41
    CON 27
    LAB 20
    LD 10
    BRX 1
    GRN 1

    Turnout expected as equal last of the nations and regions.

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    1. It's an English EVEL election that won't decide Scotland's future (at least not directly).

      That will be decided in Scotland alone as international law dictates.

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  19. More folks with the courage and self-respect to stand on their own two feet.

    All the best to them.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50739203

    Bougainville referendum: PNG region votes overwhelmingly for independence

    The people of Bougainville, an island group in Papua New Guinea, have voted overwhelmingly for independence.

    Voters had two options - more autonomy, or full independence. Of the 181,000 ballots, almost 98% were in favour of independence.

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    1. Congratulations to the people of Bougainville on joining the world of adults. It'll be difficult not having other people to give you pocket money and decide what you will do. But worth it.

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  20. Have been flirting with the idea of voting for another party all election (I'm pro-Brexit and don't want to endorse the SNP's stance on the issue), but this late Labour surge in Scotland has me spooked and I think I might end up voting SNP. I would kick myself I voted with my heart but ended up letting in a Labour MP.

    Its probably going to end up with me deciding in the polling booth.

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    1. Are you a Scottish Scooter though or British pro-brexit?

      While I understand, and might even support Scooters arguing for e.g. Scotland in the EFTA, I could never understand Scottish indy supporters of any form backing England's Brexit. It's not even British, but a full English brexit. Scots against it, NI against it, even the Welsh people against England's proposed plan.

      The only way to support Scotland outside the EU is to reject English brexit, vote for indy, then vote for a Scoot party under PR in our own nation's parliament.

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    2. I’d be happy enough with Brexit based on the Boris deal if that’s what you mean. Although my ideal would be an Indy Scotland outside of EU with a much closer relationship to the rUK than Europe.

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    3. Thanks for answering.

      I think it's better Scotland build stronger ties with all it's neigbours equally, particularly with England retreating in on itself, and in long term decline economically / politically*.

      The fact we currently have mass emigration of skilled workers out of the UK while England plans tougher controls on these entering shows you the future of brexit. There is no longer any logic to economic or social policy, only reactionary fantasy. Growth has now fallen to 2009 levels; right down the bottom of the European tables, and this is just the start of the rapid decline.

      It cannot hope to succeed because it's not built on a positive vision, but a deep dislike of others and an relic imperial superiority complex. Brexit itself is not the problem; Norway, Switzerland etc are all testament to that. That and of course Brexit is unwanted in half the UK nations. You can't force such things on people and expect success. The only possible outcome can be failure. It's equivalent to the SNP simply ignoring the 2014 result and simply ploughing ahead with independence, removing the right of Scots to vote if people objected at the ballot box. This would have been an unmitigated disaster, just as brexit will if attempts are made to prevent a new iref.

      The UK's EU membership to date worked well enough to date because all UK nations signed up to it. If that hadn't happened in 1975, the UK would likely already have broken up. Just imagine Scotland had voted not to join the EU back then after nearly 2/3 of Scots had rejected membership. The UK wouldn't exist in all probability.

      As a Scot and democract, no matter my personal opinion on the EU/EFTA etc, the decision on membership of these should only ever be a matter for Scots alone, certainly outside the UK. So under indy, the 2016 vote holds until Scots decide to change it. We can't use a UK vote as what should apply for a Scotland outside the EU, even though I can understand some Scooters might be tempted to try and kill two birds with one stone.

      Anyway, this may be our last UK eleciton. Certainly looks like it will be for NI. It won't be sending MPs to London for long if brexit goes ahead. No point if you add the backstop to devo. What exactly would they be voting on? GB votes for GB economic laws awaits.

      Enjoy the last days of Rome.

      --

      *I remain of the opinion that England must first lose Britain before it can be a success again. It must find itself and it's place in the modern, post-imperial word alone. So long as it hangs on to the Britain that has all but vanished in the past 2 generations, it can never progress.

      Same goes for Scotland.

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  21. Voters in England will largely decide the political future of Scotland, but this means we must all vote for the only party that has a vision for Scotland's future.
    40 or 45 SNP MP's will champion Scotland's cause in London.
    We're nearing the end game for the Union.
    It's never worked for us, and is just not sustainable.
    Better together applies to the EU not the UK.. Lab Tory LibDem have fused together into the STOP SCOTLAND campaign.
    They've put aside their differences in defence of London rule.
    Our only defence is to unite behind the SNP. Our time is coming.

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    1. England will set the scene, but won't be deciding.

      Nations only ever choose their own futures, even if they might be forced tae git the claymore oot the thatch.

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  22. I still live in hope that enough sensible people live in Scotland to deliver tactical voting that will stop Boris getting Scottish seats. Every seat denied to Boris could make a difference.

    I remain shocked that people in Scotland still consider the Tory Party trustworthy.,

    If you live in a Tory held seat please vote for whoever is in second place at present.

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  23. Can I remind everyone that the SNP is the only party that will get Independence (plus, of course, the grass roots YES groups. However, after independence is where we start to build the Scotland we want. We can actually have political parties which reflect the views of the Scottish people, with the good of the people and Scotland at its heart. That includes whether we become full members of the EU or join in a limited capacity or don't join at all.
    I'm 71 and out in all weathers for the SNP. I won't be alive to reap the full benefit of Independence. I'm doing it for my children and grandchildren. Vote SNP on Thursday please.

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  24. Seems as if the SNP are gaining on the Tories and Lib Dems in those seats but lsiding slightly in Labour seats.

    Odd, wouldn't have called that.

    As the seats are all so marginal the SNP could wind anywhere between 38-51 seats just dependent on local variation on the day.

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  25. Just checked with an SNP voting mate of mine that he will be voting tomorrow. He will but I was gob-smacked when he said that his ex-teacher(ie intelligent)wife who has been devoted Tory all her life will vote SNP tomorrow; she can't stand Boris Johnson and the mess the Tory Party is making of things.
    Just hope there are many more like her

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  26. Strange days. Daily Record telling people to vote SNP tomorrow to stop Brexit.

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    1. If brexit goes ahead, everything will change. It will be the final straw.

      I've always said English nationalism will break the union. It's too powerful a force for the British unionism to control.

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    2. You must be happy if that scenario succeeds.

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    3. Unlike you, I could never wish the Tories win.

      While brexit is pretty much guaranteed to break Britain, I still voted Remain in 2016, i.e. for union with England and all the other neighbours.

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  27. Feedback fae Moray: confirms above poll " too close to call" this from the horse's mouth.

    I've come across many coming back to the SNP but also ,I regret to say, the hard necked unionists who are determined to keep us out.

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    1. They must have been stupid to let you into my country.

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    2. It wasn't your granny's county, but in she came, and here you are.

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    3. The difference is these hardcore unionists voted in 2017. The snp votes didn't.

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  28. It really is on a knife-edge in so many Scottish (and UK) seats.

    I know about 7 people who are openly voting SNP - who either voted for someone else ; didn't vote SNP in 17 or haven't voted in a while.

    Four of them didn't vote in 2017 for the SNP but previously voted SNP/Yes etc. Two voted elsewhere - one for Labour and one for the Greens and the last one hadn't voted since in about 4 years (scunnered with it all).

    That's 7 votes for the SNP ; but no doubt there will be 6/7 or 8 votes for the Tories elsewhere. Whilst there's opposition in hard-necked unionists, I have been upbeat about the number of usually non-political types saying they are voting SNP.

    Many are voting for Indy, but some are voting to keep the Tories out (and probably soft No) so that is encouraging if people even if on the fence/soft no for indy are willing to back SNP in this election.

    The election is so tight, that it could be a tremendous night SNP on 47/48 etc or modest night anything plus 1 seat or even lose seats!

    Almost 30-35 seats are very much in play!

    Fingers crossed we do it.

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  29. What's weirdly interesting about this model is that, with the exception of Lanark and Hamilton East, the SNP are pushing harder against the Tories than I thought they would have. Only two seats held by the Tories look 'safe'.

    If Labour and the Lib Dems hold most of their seats here with the main scalps being Tories that is a better narrative than the Tories holding firm with the SNP picking off Labour.

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    1. I'd much rather see the SNP take Tory seats if I have to choose.

      I'm maybe picking up the slightest hint of a weakening of the Tory vote in subsamples. Could just be noise though.

      Interestingly, in the Yougov UK survey on tactical voting, of the 16% of Scots saying they were voting tactically, the reasons were as follows:

      63% In a way I think will best prevent Brexit going ahead

      As for anti-SNP voting...

      4% To try and stop a party whose views I oppose, or who I think will do a bad job [e.g. SNP]


      In England, just 19% said they were voting tactically to stop brexit. Quite a difference.

      Bodes well for anti-Tory tactical voting.

      https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0mihid5emq/YouGov%20-%20Tactical%20Voting%20Results.pdf

      Delete
  30. While this seems like a big gap, opinium are the extreme outliers in terms of looking good for the Tories.

    3 point closure by the 10th or so.

    Britain Elects


    @britainelects
    11m11 minutes ago
    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (-1)
    LAB: 33% (+2)
    LDEM: 12% (-1)

    via @OpiniumResearch, 10 - 11 Dec
    Chgs. w/ 06 Dec

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  31. Still very nervous about tomorrow but part of me finds it strange that according to the MRP projections Labour are doing a lot better in the seats they hold .I wonder if it is to do with the methodology .
    My gut instincts are that the SNP are doing better than polls suggest .I might be totally wrong but the SNP appears more motivated than in 2017 .The Unionists are getting angrier and angrier and there is a really nasty aggressive fringe to their vote .It's about time the Tories were challenged on this .The MSM were quick to scream cybernats but say nothing about Unionist aggression and intimidation

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    1. That will be the real fear for Labour, that the increase in the polls goes to much into seats they are comfortably ahead in and not maginals.

      Delete
    2. There is so much nonsense talked about postal votes.

      Let me explain as a former election agent how its done.

      You canvas people, you find out your support. You persuade them to take out a postal vote.

      You then return to their home once the postal votes are out.

      They will tell you if they have already voted, you will then know the week before if your supporters postal votes are lodged. That way you can go on telly and say you have good returns.

      What you don't know, especially this time round, is whether or not they voted the way you want.

      Not scientic but at my work a good number of Tories voting to keep Johnston out of power.

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    3. Thanks for posting this, I read an article earlier from a campaign agent earlier saying the same thing.

      I feel kinda sorry for the people at Labours social media unit who will be trying to get things like 'vote Labour' trending only to see it be shunted down the list by 'BBC bias' or something

      Delete
  32. Could it because the SNP and LibDems didn't feature in the leader's debates? The MAedia in the UK is rotten to the core

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  33. Sectarianists and the majority of English folk living in Scotland must change their attitude or Independence won't happen
    Ironic to think that bigots who don't care about politics and folk from other countries hold the key to Scotland's Independence

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    1. My granny was English and she would have supported the UK Union. How she managed to travel to Scotland during 1893 is a mystery. This was way before Souter was funding the Tartan Tories.

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    2. So your granny was a migrant, and you are the descended from migrants.

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    3. He " doesn't know"..that's undocumented . Hence : illegal alien!! GWC's folks are anchor babies!! Poke thru a conservative background and you find criminals.

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    4. GWC. I'd always thought you were a 'true' Scot, but now you are telling us you are descended from migrants!

      Who'd a thunk it, eh.

      Delete
    5. Gudrun Wróclawska-CraibDecember 11, 2019 at 6:57 PM

      We always knew Cordelia's granny came from a faraway land of which we know but little. Her name was Gobshetta Wibley-Cuddlingham and she was brought to this country by her mother in a carriage owned by her aristocratic but enigmatic father, Count Grimaldo Waldheim-Csángo who joined them later in 1893. They bought a townhouse in Edinburgh's Royal Circus where they became the centre of a glittering social and intellectual circle. There fortunes began to wane when their grand-daughter Cordelia started hanging around Newhaven offering mariners a happy ending for 2/6 and 5 Woodbine.

      Delete
    6. Skier I thought a true Jock was born in jockland.

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    7. Cool story, Ms Icelander. I think I can almost see Constantine Mudge lounging by the mantelpiece, just out of the picture.

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    8. Don't be ashamed of your migrant descent GWC.

      My gran was Irish; born in Ballymena.

      We're all the descendants of migrants.

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    9. Gudrun Wróclawska-CraibDecember 11, 2019 at 10:32 PM

      I see Constantine Mudge and Count Waldheim-Csangó sharing a joke and rich allusive conversation over cigars and brandy in the drawing room after a damned fine dinner. Petronella Mudge and the Countess, meanwhile, enjoy some racy news with the other grand ladies.
      Edinburgh in its finest days. Oh, Royal Circus, what has become of you. Vulgarity at every turn.

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    10. Skier, it was the UK, so not migrants but just changing towns, villages etc.

      Delete
  34. In EVERY SINGLE seat, the projected SNP vote share is subject to a wider spread (sometimes much wider) than its main challenger.

    Is this a result of methodology not being able to pin the SNP vote down quite as well or is it a reflection that the SNP vote is the most sensitive to turnout/uncertainty?

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  35. In yet another leaked letter Labour officials are urging voters to vote Tory in Scotland where they know they can't win

    That was the Kezia Dugdale tactic, remember her

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    1. She has a lovely Nat si partner now and will probably join them to get a safe Nat si seat.

      Delete