Thursday, December 12, 2019

Exit Poll Sensation: It could be 2015 all over again as SNP projected to win 55 seats

Exit Poll:

Conservatives 368
Labour 191
SNP 55
Liberal Democrats 13

89 comments:

  1. You were quick off the mark!

    Sensational if anything like correct!

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  2. Unionist Media BDSM ClubDecember 12, 2019 at 10:05 PM

    Nicola must resign immediately! /s

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  3. I didn't expect that - a projection of 55 SNP seats. Independence campaign starts again tomorrow.

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  4. Hardly sensational for the rest of the UK!

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    Replies
    1. It wasn't twitter bots that cast their vote in England and Wales.

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  5. Unbelievable. Assuming it is true this is a gamechanger of the first order!

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  6. Roof the Moof skinny dip coming up! Boke!

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  7. Problem now! To resist LBJ manouvers to shut down Holyrood!"

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    1. That would require sending in English troops.

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    2. My grandparents fought the Nazis for the right of Scots (and others) to govern themselves freely.

      I really hope we don't have to do the same against England.

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  8. Devastated for Labour, but independence now.

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  9. Well, we have to wait and see, but certainly looks like a bit of an improvement on 2017.

    Maybe there was something to all my endless guff about false recall and unweighted bases.

    If true, the UK's over, and soon.

    Big wins for the the Scottish Nationalists in Scotland and the English nationalists in England is pretty much end game for unionism.

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  10. Replies
    1. Look, you can insert the phizzog of Emma Little-Pengelly, Random Totty or even Kirstene Hair in this:

      http://lochnessmystery.blogspot.com/2017/02/smirnoff-water-skier-advert.html

      But The Colonel? No, just no. For your own state of mind.

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  11. Was there an election when the exit poll was complete nonsense, or is my memory playing tricks? 1992? Hope we don’t get a repeat?

    What’s the prediction for Neale Hanvey? If the actual results for the SNP are as good as the exit poll suggests, I assume he’ll win and we’ll be sending 56 pro-independence MPs, just like 2015.

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    1. Exactly. Turnout seems to be up in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, and the only person that could benefit is Hanvey. So, fingers crossed.

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    2. The exit poll says 55 for the SNP, not 56. Kirkcaldy can be assumed to be among those.

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  12. I want it to be 55. But even if it's wrong and it's 43 / 45 ish remember we would have been happy with that.

    Glass half empty here but if it's 55 surely indy is on the near horizon.

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    1. Unionist Media BDSM ClubDecember 12, 2019 at 10:41 PM

      The exit poll could be wrong by ten seats and this would still be a dream of a night. But either figure could be so important internationally too in the indyref struggles to come.

      Massive Tory majority followed by hard Brexit could mean we're at 55%+ Yes by the spring.

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  13. I'm astonished to discover that Michael Gove doesn't know how pronounce "ca' canny".

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    1. He knows fine. He's doing it to fit in with his racist supporters.

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  14. They reckon Alistair Carmichael has lost his seat. I've got to be a bit dubious about that but hey I'll take it if it's going.

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    1. Seems unlikely if the SNP have only (lol) 55. Can we get to four holdouts without including him? Murray, Mundell...Lamont? Who else?

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    2. Yes, LibDems fought a dire campaign -- but not sure if it's justifiable to project that to places like Stronsay and Unst.

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  15. Please Ruthie welch on your bet... for the good of the countries digestion

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  16. Absolutely gobsmacked if that´s true.

    I´ve said all campaign - I know 7 people who didn´t vote SNP in 17 were now voting SNP - we´ll see in the wee hours if its true or not ,

    but mad!

    Also that English result is a horror show!

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  17. I'm dubious if this poll can be totally accurate for the SNP considering tactical voting will be at play in some seats. But hopefully it is a sign at the very least that there will be some SNP gains tonight .

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  18. SNP mandate would utterly dwarf the Tory one on those numbers (based on respective electorates).

    Johnson's majority would be pathetically small by comparison with the SNP's.

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  19. If accurate, that leaves 4 MPs who are not SNP. Carmichael, Mundell, Murray and...

    Hanvey or Swinson?

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    1. Hanvey will be counted as SNP. The fourth projected non-SNP survivor is someone called Andrew Bowie, apparently.

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    2. Aye, I just checked on the BBC website and it says Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath is a projected SNP gain.

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  20. I have quite a few leaflets from the Tories clearly stating that a vote for the SNP is a vote for independence.

    Might come in useful if a judge is asked about this.

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    1. Aye, but you're forgetting that everything the Tories say is a lie.

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  21. "Tell her again... "

    Hahahaha. Sure seem to have got her telt.

    Misogynistic prick.

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  22. Anything above 45 should be considered an excellent result, personally I had my hopes around 47 as beating all forecasts. Hopefully we;re not just being set up for dissapointment when it's ONLY 50 seats. Nail biting :)


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  23. And we're just getting our first result in. Very early, but that's what can happen with a 69% postal vote. It's for the three-way marginal of Dunbotherin & Scumflats East, so let's go over to the Returning Officer:

    “Sir James Kelly (SNP Middle-Aged Fanclub) 22,501
    Constantine Mudge (Conservatives Against Philistinism) 17,423
    G.W.C. McGimp (LabourRichard For Pope) 5,111
    Trevor Brendan Skier (Smash English Racism) 478
    R. Totty (Stop Objectifying Women) 235..."

    OK, that's enough votes.
    Fairly comfortable for the SNP – and the veteran raconteur Constantine Mudge has been beaten off again. A major collapse of the Labour vote, although I understand that there were “problems” with the candidate. (Apparently somebody had been raking through his muck.)
    So, what does it all mean? Well, what it means is that I'm stuck in the studio trying to stop a lot of sweaty-faced spinners taking liberties with the figures. Instead of enjoying an expensive meal in the West End. And meanwhile that little upstart with the fridge probably has thousands of people logging on to his website. Hey ho...

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  24. Christ these lobby journalists are fucking insufferable. Now I remember why I stopped watching TV.

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  25. Roll on independence so I can stop voting SNP lol

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  26. Looks like we are leaving the EU. Incoming Scottish Nat si MPs will still be trolling Hampstead Heath.

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    1. Mmmm. Leaving the Eu, good SNP vote. Corbyns throat cut. I wonder what the otucome might be in Scotland. Mmmm. I wonder.

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  27. Isn't the exit poll numbers rather low at 22,000? I'm sure I read somewhere that around 80,000 have been polled previously.

    Anyway, 22,000 means less than 2000 in Scotland, is that really enough to predict 55 seats with any certainty? The margin of error must be at least +/- 4 seats.

    Lets hope its plus 4 LOLOL

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  28. Wholesale Labour -> Brexit Party swing in Newcastle upon Tyne Central

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  29. Sunderland now looking like a Lab/Con marginal. Christ

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  30. Tories take Blyth Valley

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  31. English working class Tories - don't even have the excuse of Orangeism.

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    1. Who knows what card they're liable to play?

      "Wings Over Scotland
      @WingsScotland
      ·
      5m
      Everyone under 35 (6 of 9) at my poker table voted Tory."

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  32. NE Fife looking shaky. I suspect the exit poll is quite a bit out in Scotland.

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    1. Its prediction that Orkney & Shetland is going SNP casts serious doubt on its other claims, IMO

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  33. The end result is a Tory majority facilitated by Labour and the Scottish Nat sis who would not accept the referendum result.

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    1. A Labour Party you voted for. Sit down.

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    2. Labour share down 13.9% in first three seats declared.

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    3. Labour highly likely to lose Bolsover and Stoke Central. First "Deep South" result shows 5.8% swing to Tories in North Swindon.

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  34. The bookies aren't over impressed with the exit poll prediction of an SNP estimate of 55 seats, you can get even money on them getting more than 50.5

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    1. As I said earlier anything over 45 would be a great result.

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  35. Please let it be true.

    Yes, Sturgeon is a FAILURE she must resign.

    There seems to be only a seats projection, any percentages?

    (Bernard Pnosnoby getting excited - what will you do Ian Blackford if Boris says NO to an Indy Ref?)

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    1. It's a pretty good question about which many of us are - to put it mildly - curious. But one way or another, we're going to get the answer soon.

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    2. Ponsonby is bang into Independence.

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  36. Hearing news from the count in Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath that Neale Hanvey has "walked it". Labour denying it but by the looks on their faces it looks likely to be true.

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  37. With a handful of seats declared have the brexit party taken voted from the tories and prevented them winning, or have they taken votes from labour and helped them lose?

    Looks to be more the 2nd option in georgiemakemland.

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  38. Just, uhm, three more victories until we could, maybe, talk about an Independence Mandate?

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  39. The result means Knickerless will not be sucking up Berniers erse pretending to be representing Real Scots.

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  40. Bernar4d Ponsonby is pinning the Tories to the wall. They'er saying it depends on the percentage, so BP is saying "Does that mean Boris Johnson won't have a mandate for Brexit?". The Tory is saying "that's not what I'm saying", and BP is just laughing his head off.

    It's already Christmas :-)

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  41. Just seen this quote from sir John Curtice, lead psephologist of the Exit Poll.

    "Curtice said he thought the the broad picture provided by the exit poll “may be right”, but he said the figures for Scotland were “the bit about this poll about which we are, frankly, least confident” because there were few sampling points in Scotland." Sir John Curtice,

    I thought 55 seats might be a dream too far.

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    1. I too am sceptical regarding 55 seats. The upper range was 47. If we took 47 I would be over the moon.

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  42. What a result of its true just had the feeling that the vote was coming to us after last weekend .

    For the Yoons in here a double whammy tonight .
    I'm hearing that the DUP have lost Belfast North to Sinn Fein and Belfast East to the Alliance .
    The North of Ireland for first time will not elect a majority of Unionist MPs .

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  43. Mmm, SNP 44.2% in Rutherglen - exctly the same as 2015.

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    1. Rutherglen was 52.6% SNP in 2015.

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    2. Big hard loyalist unionist vote in Rutherglen .So I wouldn't take too much from one seat accept it's a smashing SNP gain

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    3. Just testing to see if you were awake, Wilson.

      Ooops ...

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  44. Looks like I've won £70 from Paddy Power £20 on Amy Callaghan to take Swinson out .

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  45. FFS STV / BBC Scotland, any danger of cutting the boring waffle and GIVING US THE FLAMING ELECTION RESULTS when we see SNP rise from 1 to 3 with no results shown?

    Useless as a pair of skies in a heatwave.

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  46. Record reporting Alister Jack looking likely to lose his seat to the SNP.

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  47. The BBC threw everything at the SNP and it hasn't really worked. This gives me more confidence going into indyref 2.

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  48. Lanark & Hamilton East held by SNP with 5,000 majority. Lab collapse into 3rd place (12,000 behind).

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  49. The SNP had a difficult juggling act, keeping us Indy people happy with Independence and Indy Ref 2020, without scaring off the Brexit remainers AND the Boris Johnson despisers. A certain blogger elsewhere complained that a candidate didn't mention Indy. But mines's leaflet was word perfect. And I think Indy is less of a fear for people than Brexit and Bozo.

    But it looks so far as though they're managing to juggle all the balls and keep them in the air, and in fact get people tactically voting SNP rather than Union.

    Just for a laugh, maybe SiU's tactical voting effort HELPED THE SNP - thank you Pamela Nash.

    Anyways, still a long night in front.

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  50. Tories hold Moray, the Ref for Gers keeps his seat, 55 seats for the SNP looks wrong. Let's hope for 50.

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    1. Gethins loses NEF, that's a savage loss - for Scotland as well.

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  51. LibDem gain in Fife North East.

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  52. Swinson loses to SNP by 149

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    1. I'm going to be controversial and thank the Greens for taking or diverting the LibDem vote. But we'll never know!

      Swinson made a whole bundle of mistakes.

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  53. Fuck Jo Swinson.

    Mundell back as Scottish Sec?

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  54. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  55. James, can you summarize where we are at? 50 seats??

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    1. I think Nessie is going to be safe.

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  56. The error was due to fact they couldn't account for YoonPV fraud.

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