Monday, November 11, 2019

What effect will Farage's big decision have on the election in Scotland?

Nigel Farage's decision today not to stand candidates in the seats won by the Tories in 2017 doesn't entirely remove the Brexit Party-shaped obstacle to Boris Johnson winning a majority, because of course the Tories would need to gain seats to win a majority, not just hold what they have.  This looks to me like a man who doesn't want to be seen after the election to have perversely thwarted Brexit, rather than a man who wants to remove all risk of actually doing that.

Unfortunately, though, this U-turn is going to be disproportionately harmful to the SNP, because by relative historic standards the Tories did particularly well in Scotland in 2017, meaning there are more seats here where the Tories will be getting a free pass from the Brexit Party than there otherwise would be.  There's no getting away from it - this is going to make it somewhat harder for the SNP to win back the twelve seats they lost to the Tories two years ago.  Not impossible by any means, but a bit harder.

I know some people (OK, Ian Smart) will now glibly add the Brexit Party share of the vote to the Tory share and argue that gives a better indication of the state of play in Tory-held seats.  If we do that for the most recent full-scale Scottish YouGov poll, it would put the Tories on 28% of the vote and the SNP on 42% - and that still represents a 3% swing to the SNP, enough to see three Tory seats tumble.  But it doesn't work like that anyway, because not all Brexit Party supporters will vote Tory in the absence of a Brexit Party candidate. From YouGov's datasets, it looks like less than half of people planning to vote for the Brexit Party in Scotland actually voted for the Tories in 2017.

If you're looking for other silver linings, here are a few...

* If Farage is true to his word this time, he'll still put up candidates in 46 of the 59 Scottish constituencies, which should make it slightly easier for the SNP to hold a handful of constituencies where the Tories are in a close second place.

* We know that a minority of Brexit Party voters would otherwise be in the SNP column (one such voter left a comment on this blog a couple of weeks ago), so the absence of Brexit Party candidates in a substantial minority of seats could end up slightly boosting the SNP's share of the national popular vote.  That's obviously less important than any failure to gain seats, but the popular vote share will certainly be mentioned after the election and will affect perceptions of how strong the SNP's overall mandate is.

* This shouldn't affect the SNP's chances of gaining seats from Labour.  Even if the SNP fail to gain a single Tory seat, and even if they lose North-East Fife to the Lib Dems, holding their other 34 seats and gaining the six marginal Labour seats would still be enough to take them to the psychologically-important figure of 40.

* I would guess UKIP might see an opportunity here to take votes that otherwise would have gone to Farage.  We'll have to see if they now put up candidates in a few Tory-held seats.

* A de facto Johnson-Farage electoral pact may scare the living daylights out of some Remain voters and convince them that they shouldn't muck around with their vote at this election.  If so, that ought to benefit the SNP, who are the strongest Remain party in the vast majority of Scottish constituencies.

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58 comments:

  1. Labour deserve to be bashed. They have a leave leader and shadow chancellor and they are indecisive. Hopefully the remainers who said they would accept the referendum result get clobbered. The former cloned Scottish Labour voters have clearly been re cloned into Nat sis.

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    1. Why do you suggest Labour deserve to be bashed because they have a leave leader and shadow chancellor, given your own stance on the merits of EU membership. You're really heading through looking glass. I chased a rabbit into wonderland...........

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    2. I wrote above why they deserved to be bashed. However for you only thicko they voted to support the peoples decision never intending to implement it.

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    3. Why do you want remainers who accept the referendum result to get clobbered, wouldn't them accepting the result help the UK to leave the EU.

      Corbyn amd Mcdonald propose renegotiating a new deal and putting it to the people, rather than outright remain in a new referendum. Inconsistent maybe, but as you say, they are leavers.

      Deserved lol, surely you mean deserve, or have you changed/lost your mind again.

      Where's that rabbit gone..........

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  2. Yougov UK:

    If you had to choose between your preferred outcome on Brexit or Northern Ireland staying in the UK, would you choose...
    58% My preferred Brexit outcome
    18% Northern Ireland staying in the UK


    Leave voters:
    64% My preferred Brexit outcome
    18% Northern Ireland staying in the UK


    It's pretty sad the way the likes of GWC and the DUP love England yet that's completely unrequited, as evidenced by the EVEL government selling N. Ireland out.

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  3. Remain United have have do done some regression analysis polling with data to 8 November. Scottish result, based on tallying up each seat

    SNP 37
    CON 22
    LAB 20
    LD 13
    BRX 7
    GRN 1

    Their model puts the Tories and Lib Dems on 2 seats each, Labour on 1 and SNP on 55

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    1. At first glance that looks like it must be a dud model. The Lib Dems are very unlikely to only get 2.

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    2. Yes. If true it means a good SNP vote spread. They've since put up tables (the sample size was a few hundreds) and the SNP are on 41%. So they've been cut back a bit in the model

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    3. The Remain United Comres poll has higher SNP again.

      Comres used to be less SNP friendly, generally finding no change on 2017 with values in upper 30's.

      But recently, they have SNP up about 7 points to an average of 44% (2 subset running average). Steady increase too.

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  4. The Conservatives were calling the Greens cowardly the other day. I wonder if Farage will get the same insults :)

    While this does complicate the numbers a little I think there is some mileage in equating Boris with Farage in the voter's minds...not a pretty thought.

    I was sceptical that the BP would take many votes in Scotland anyway I think the polls overstate the BP and Green share of what will go down on the day.

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  5. Who knows?

    At first sight, it's a boon to the Tories. But it makes it look as if Farage has bottled it, and the Brexit party could be a lame duck/busted flush even in Labour leave constituencies.

    Also I wonder if it could stimulate the Remain side to get a grip and be more determined to kick out the Tories where ti matters.

    And the offer of honours for Farage, and the idea of Trump getting the result he wanted, may also put some people off.

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  6. Labour now claiming a Trump/Boris alliance as well as Russian interference in the Brexit/Trump elections. Labour need to stop their stupidity and announce progressive policies and expose the Tartan right wing Tories.

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    1. My grandparents didn't fight the Nazis so that British fascists could refuse Scotland the right to vote.

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    2. Some of you Jocks and Irish Republicans would have fought for Adolf given the chance.

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    3. My grandparents fought on the Allied side. My Irish gran manned the anti-aircraft guns at lowesoft, even though she suffered horrible racist abuse for her troubles and lost many friends when her barracks was bombed.

      You are scum to besmirch their memories, as is the UK with its fascist threats to dispense with democracy.

      You don't deserve to wear a poppy.

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    4. I contributed my money towards several poppies so I am entitled to wear it. The anti aircraft guns just made a noise and frightened the children they never actually hit anything. Your granny probably just did it for the extra rations to feed the weans.

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    5. General Wilhelm CarstenNovember 12, 2019 at 8:19 AM

      I fought at Stalingrad under General Paulus against the Reds. Escaped, made my way to Britain and am a luminary in the upper circles of British society. I always wear my poppy because I am on expenses with the Poppy Patrol.

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    6. I have a bad habit of getting lost in the fog of war.

      The history book on the shelf is almost repeating itself.

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    7. Surprised we won the war, if we were manning our artillery with Irish grannies.

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  7. Hong Kong is a good example of what happens when an aggressive dictatorial power tries to crush democracy by refusing a Section 30.

    Does England have the balls shoot at Scots though? That's the question. It will need to if it wants to cancel election results here like Johnson says it will.

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    1. Hong Kong is part of China. Scotland is part of the UK.

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    2. Who was it that handed Hong Kong to China against the will of its people again?

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    3. I assume you are a Jock colonialist Skier.

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    4. You can defend the independence / sovereignty of a country without colonising it.

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    5. Hong Kong is not a country it is Chinese territory. Wee Jock McPoo and his bayonet have moved on.

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    6. It's Chinese because the brits abandoned the Hong Kong people and handed them over to the Chinese.

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    7. The Chinese people living in Hong Kong were not handed over. They stayed in China.

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    8. You are watching the news right?

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    9. Shows the racism though. Over 1.5 centuries of being an integral part of Britain yet the population wasn't 'British'. Too 'slanty-eyed'?

      https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-hong-kongers-want-to-be-british-again-11567770402

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  8. Mps pay is 79k + expenses. Thought has to be given into whose pocket your vote will give. Jock Nat si Mps have far less responsibility.

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  9. GWC is a parody of a unionists. I think he is a chain yanker. He probably doesn't even vote. Difficult to get his fat are down 3 flights of stairs on the mobility scooter.

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  10. The Hong Kong pro democracy mob are setting people on fire they disagree with. Scottish Unionists beware of Nat sis with matches and petrol.

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    1. Pro-indy supporters should watch out for brit jackboots with guns.

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    2. Jocko pro-indy supporters should be more concerned about Scotland being dominated by the neo Liberal fascists who dominate the EU.

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    3. Unlike the UK, the EU allows people to vote.

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    4. Neo-liberal EU, as opposed to the neo-liberal fascist Tories and Brexit party.

      Dog chases tail...........

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  11. Forecast.. Farage Brexit mob will go down here like a crap English comic in Glasgow. Laugh? Na dinnae bother.

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  12. Skier, seems Trump is being focused on by the Nats sis, Labour and Libs as the boogeyman. Seems they do not want to trade with the Yanks. Being EU erse lickers seems OK.

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    1. It was the Yanks that made the backstop a condition of any trade deal, causing England to sell out the N. Irish unionists.

      They've a big Irish lobby over there. Helped fund the IRA in the past.

      #Irelandfirst

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    2. Probably still funding them.

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    3. Not only them, Scotland has many friends too

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    4. Trump must be the boogeyman due to all his boogie nights, but while Trump does his Saturday night fever murder on the dance floor, the US may get another president, Trump and US, not the same thing.

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  13. "Hackers have mounted a “sophisticated and large-scale cyber-attack” on Labour’s digital platforms"

    We just have GWC, the Groundhog Day Kamikaze.

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    1. Those nasty Russkies at it again. The Tories used to say the Soviets supported Labour now its Labour's turn. Better than discussing social policies to help the poorer in society.

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    2. I think GWC's been the victim of some sort of attack on his psyche.

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  14. I see the Tories are planning to take away the human rights of the innocent victims of British jackboots in N. Ireland, be these nationalist or republican.

    This is a standard move in fascism; to make your violent stasi above the law.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50372932

    The Tories marked Armistice Day by promising to change the law to protect those who served in NI.

    But Ulster Unionist, Sinn Féin and Alliance politicians criticised the proposals.

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    1. If murderers and those who plan murder can become politicians then soldiers should be given amnesty under the Belfast Agreement. Shoot to kill was a good policy.

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    2. The British army murdered many innocent civilians from both sides of the divide.

      https://www.wesleyjohnston.com/users/ireland/past/troubles/troubles_stats.html

      Hence they are classed as a terrorist organisation.

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    3. Thats a fair point, if you think that the British soldiers were 'terrorists' and part of a terrorist organisation and should be prosecuted for murdering civilians, then the same has to apply for loyalist and republican terrorists as well. Amnesty for all or for none, that is only fair.

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    4. The IRA instruction to its members and civilian supporters was if our one is shot by the Brits then grab the weapon and disappear. This achieves two things. 1. We still have a weapon to kill Brits. 2. We can claim it was cold blooded murder. 3.Our IRA lawyers get on the case and maximum publicity moreso amongst our thick Irish American supporters who will give us more money. WIN win.

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    5. Cordelia and its Domestos fuelled rage, everyone.

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  15. Good conclusion and I hope the right one.

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  16. Survation UK Scots subsample:
    46% SNP
    23% Con
    13% Lab
    12% Lib
    5% Brx

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    1. My current average:
      45% SNP
      23% Con
      14% Lab
      11% Lib
      4% Brx
      2% Grn

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  17. Awesome post.Thanks for sharing.This is so nice.

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    1. Awesome? As in the majesty of the Himalayas. The serenity of a herd of elephants ambling across the Savannah. The marvel of the works of Caravaggio, Bach or Dante. That kind of awesome?

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  18. This comment has been removed by the author.

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