Thursday, November 14, 2019

SNP enjoy 21-point lead over the Tories in latest YouGov subsample average

I'm beginning to wonder if a full-scale Scottish poll is ever going to be conducted in this campaign, but in the meantime, here's the next best thing - an average of the last five Scottish subsamples from GB-wide YouGov polls.  YouGov's subsamples differ from those of other firms because they appear to be correctly structured and weighted.  The combined fieldwork for these five took place entirely after the most recent full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov, which was conducted in late October.

SNP 44.2%
Conservatives 23.0%
Labour 12.6%
Liberal Democrats 11.8%
Brexit Party 4.6%
Greens 3.4%

So the SNP appear to have come through the early skirmishes of the campaign unscathed, although the real danger points (ie. the rigged leaders' debates) are yet to come.  I would guess the above figures slightly underestimate the Tories, because four of the five subsamples preceded the methodological change to take account of the Brexit Party standing aside in Tory-held seats.

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I have another two constituency previews in The National today - this time it's Dundee East and Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey.  You can read them HERE and HERE.

32 comments:

  1. Hard to believe the two Tory capitalist parties are ahead in Scotland. Whatever happened to socialism and the Red Clydesiders. Or was it just a myth.

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    1. Behave yourself Curtis.

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    2. Keep up GWC any self respecting Red Clydesider is voting SNP as they have finally noticed that the British Labour party has betrayed their Socialist credentials.

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    3. And the Scottish Nat si party have a reciperal agreement with Labour and their Tory pals. Socialism is confined to the dustbins of history.

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    4. Behave yourself Curtis.

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    5. Is Cordelia calling herself Curtis now? Strange lady.

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  2. I'm never very sure about these polls-of-polls. And how are we to interpret an average of 4.6% for the Brexit Party vote that spans The Pact / Climbdown ? If the Tories could bank all of that then they might save a few East Coast seats, but...

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    1. Likewise, if the SNP could bank some of the Green support in the right areas, it would help tip more of the marginals in their favour.

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    2. The Scottish Nat si party have Coatbridge the former Catholic Labour anti abortion anti section 28 constituency in their hands. Good progress.

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    3. Behave yourself Curtis.

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    4. Being 'anti-Section 28' is a positive thing I'd have thought. It was British anti-gay legislation finally repealed in 2000.

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  3. Both the BP and Green percentages look higher than will likely occur on the actual day. Hopefully any loan of Green vote will go the SNP way. Any BP drift will likely go the Tory way.

    Not sure if Labour will kick start their campaign. No idea who their candidate is in my constituency.

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  4. We have got used to Labour being third, but the ratio SNP:Tory:Labour of (roughly) 4:2:1 is still taking some getting used to.

    2015 was a disaster for Labour in terms of seats but even back then they had 24% of the vote (rising to 27% in 2017).

    Looking back the 2017 result of SNP 37% Tory 29% looks a much closer result than by number of seats that we more usually see.

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    1. Counterintuitively, the SNP were incredibly lucky in 2017. A huge number of marginals that could just as easily have gone against them split in their favour. If that hadn't happened - and we're talking incredibly tight margins here - they'd have been lucky to scrape 20 seats.

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  5. The Union Jack jaikit is definitely on a shoogly peg when life long Tories are undecided on their vote.
    What a sookathon from the libtorylab alliance on debate night.
    They need a new snappy slogan.
    How about the STOP SCOTLAND CAMPAIGN.

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  6. The two English presidential parties are so focussed on outspending one another then ridiculing each other for doing it they haven't noticed how ridiculous a circus they look to the public who more and more can see them for what they are

    Scotland will vote them almost both out of existence at this rate so let's hope they keep their crap up

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    1. We have been spending the Scottish oil revenues on all sorts of projects like the EU, House of Lords and the Jock Parliament while the Scots are dying in their droves from alcohol and drugs. But it will get better ven ve take over.

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    2. Remember your meds Curtis.

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  7. Edna the Enibriant, JockNovember 15, 2019 at 1:19 AM

    Vie luv your Knickerless Sturgeon the vormer wurkin class girl vom Anderston somewhere in Scatland. She has forgotten her roots and luvs uz EU bourgeoisie. HIC Nice wine Herman.

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    1. Remember your meds Curtis.

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    2. Natz will tear us apart again

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    3. Your paranoid delusions will tear you apart sooner Curtis. Remember those meds.

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  8. Since the Greens are not running in a number of constituencies, I wonder if their percentage is a bit higher than it would be in an election. And would you mind removing some of the misogynist crap, James? Thanks.

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    1. Please don't ask me to delete other people's comments. I spend/waste half my life deleting the worst comments on this blog, but it's always going to be at my own discretion.

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    2. Every girlie likes a compliment about her cooking and knitting. Nothing wrong with that if they keep a tidy home and spend their allowance carefully. No-one likes a spendthrift girl.

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    3. Random Totty From Freedom SquareNovember 15, 2019 at 9:37 AM

      I'm chi-square curious.

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  9. I fear that too much is being taken for granted and that some folks will indulge themselves for truly catastrophic results.

    Boris Johnston and his right wing conservatives are going to win. England will not return Corbyn

    Any sane voter in Scotland has therefore only one choice and that is to vote SNP.

    A vote for anyone else is a vote for Boris

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  10. And yes, out if Europe, Johnson's government will waste no time creating an even more hostile environment.

    Pensions, benefits, workers rights, social protections. Does anyone think these will get better under Johnson or Rees Mogg.

    Or what of the NHS. Ready for privatisation, Johnson and his crew won't take long in realigning that in aUSctrade deal. Privatisation is in the neo liberal blood.

    Voting SNP, and in huge numbers is the only way to stop this holocaust that awaits us

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  11. Dunfermline East (Fife) first preferences:
    SNP: 33.2% (+9.1)
    CON: 24.8% (-6.5)
    LDEM: 22.8% (+13.8)
    LAB: 13.5% (-6.3)
    GRN: 5.1% (+0.9)
    LBT: 0.6% (+0.6)

    SNP GAIN from Conservative.

    Rosyth (Fife) first preferences:

    SNP: 42.8% (+16.5)
    CON: 24.4% (-2.3)
    LAB: 15.2% (-4.3)
    LDEM: 7.9% (-0.9)
    IND: 5.0% (+2.9)
    GRN: 4.2% (+0.7)
    LBT: 0.5% (+0.5)

    SNP HOLD.

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  12. It is getting clearer and clearer as the 'Brave New' Tory party rushes to the authoritarian, hyper exploitative right.
    Ironic that their transitional leader should be a 'Boris' - remember Yeltsin ? Who will be the Putin to follow ?
    For this election it seems to me that "Unknown" sums it up pretty much correctly. Fight hard for SNP votes and on 13th December put our YES hats on and start again !

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  13. 'We're awe doomed!'

    If anyone seen slabs PEB!

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  14. There was always a Tory vote in Dunfermline, this result confirms that. Of everything about these these two results, the winner and the %age for each party, it's the sheer scale of the collapse of the Labour vote in Rosyth, an area that literally would have bled Labour if cut open in the 60s-00s which is the most significant point of these two Fife by elections.

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