Thursday, October 31, 2019

Three opponents for the SNP, three different outcomes?

Just a quick note to let you know that I have a new article at The National about the SNP's prospects in the forthcoming general election, and how I think they might fare against Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories respectively.  The answer is a bit different in each case.  You can read the article HERE.

56 comments:

  1. Today, 31 October, we are leaving the EU, do or die. No it's or buts. Would anyone like to join me in a round of "Rule Brittania"?

    I declare I feel more British already.

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  2. In that case, why is the article signed by Callum Baird?

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    1. Yes, I spotted that, there must have been a mix-up. I'm not sure if it's the same in the print edition. You sound very accusing there - I did write it, honestly! There's probably an algorithm somewhere that can identify the Kelly prose style.

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    2. Dead tree version is attributed to you James!

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    3. Salute the Giant Deadwoods of President Jamez National Park!

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  3. Survation UK Scots sample:

    46% SNP
    17% Lab
    12% Con
    14% Lib
    10% Brx

    High SNP by Survation standards.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Presumably this was a sub-sample?

      And, if so, it's worth remembering that (apart from the small number of data points), it won't be weighted according to the normal demographic criteria.

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    3. If my constituents find it difficult to choose between the Tories and the Brexit Party then I shall advise them to abstain.

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    4. @Duncanio.

      My post says it's a subsample.

      It's within standard error of full Scottish polling though for the SNP. They've had 43+/-3%'s recently.

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  4. Hmmm - that looks pretty good! Tories 4th and heading for 5th?

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  5. Ran that through electoral calculus - don't know how reliable that is but it gave the seats as:

    SNP 54

    Lab 1

    Con 0

    Lib 4

    Brexit 0

    I think most of us could live with that!

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  6. Survation Table 12 is the final weighted results. The SNP are on 54%. Which is the highest SNP subsample (which us all it is) since BoJo became PM (I track these)

    My two week rolling subsample tracker now has SNP 42 CON 22 LIB 14 LAB 13 BRX 5 GRN 2

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    1. Yes, my numbers were for a theoretical election held tomorrow. The numbers you quote are for the actual election in December, so more correct as they question is not hypothetical.

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    2. A note on why I use a two week rolling average; it nailed YouGov in September spot on and got very close to Panelbase in October except for the Lib Dems and Labour. Note that Panelbase weight Labour heavily and indeed had them at 16% at the Euros when they got 9%; again underestimating the Lib Dems.

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  7. Latest Yougov Scottish subsample.

    SNP 44
    Con 19
    LD 10
    Lab 9
    BXT 8
    GRN 8
    OTH 1

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    1. 8% Green, so could end up 50%+ SNP oan the day.

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    2. Ran that through electoral calculus too. Unsurprisingly not as good, but:

      SNP 51 seats

      Con 3

      Libs 4

      Lab 1

      BXT 0

      Green 0

      Oth 0

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  8. The two key targets are

    1. An increase in SNP votes and seats to establish a trend. (Highly probable and achievable).
    and
    2. An absolute majority of votes for pro-Indy parties. (Tough but..) Best not to be explicit about this as some sort of quadruple mandate, but useful leverage for later.

    I'm not sure that this election is so much a major act in the drama. More like scene-setting behind the curtain.

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  9. According to Yougov, Scots more supportive of holding a GE. Would tie in with the whopping vote for pro-indy parties.

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  10. Daily Mail suggesting that Farage may concentrate all his resources on running candidates in around 20 Labour-held Leave seats in "the North".

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  11. MORI UK Scots sample.

    SNP + Green = 45%

    42% SNP
    23% Con
    19% Lab
    11% Lib
    3% Grn

    Average SNP in our 3 polls so far post GE announcement = 47%. Then you can add some of the Green vote maybe. Straws in the wind?

    SNP at least holding up anyway.

    MORI is a stonker for the English nationalists down south. 41% Con. Seem's England wants to dump NI and wave Scotland goodbye!

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    1. Giving per electoral calculus:

      SNP 51 seats

      Cons 3

      Lab 1

      Lib 4

      Grns 0


      I am interested whether the seat total or the vote total is more important? Any views?

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  12. My comment disappeared!

    Anyway as per electoral calculus and as applied to the above the seats are spead thusly:

    SNP 51

    Con 3

    Lab 1

    Lib 4

    Green 0

    I am doing the work for my own amusement. I will stop publishing it here if it is flawed or otherwise useless. Opinions welcome!

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    Replies
    1. Keep posting them.

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    2. If seats and % vote are in the mid-40s then I don't think it matters. If the SNP scores 38% and loses one seat or 36% and gains one seat then that will be spun as a defeat.

      But I think the Electoral Calculus figures might be fairly close to the actual result.

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    3. Ask James for a cut from the next fundraiser, I think Skier is on 10% and GWC on 5.

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  13. Edinburgh Working ClassOctober 31, 2019 at 2:33 PM

    Good Sub's for the SNP but worth keeping an eye on the Brexit party VI in Scotland. Most of that may end up slithering over to the Tories and if the party puts up no candidates in Scotland then it could bolster the Tories into the low 20's.

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    1. Scant data, but I have it maybe moving to the SNP and Con.

      Scexiters and Brexiters one assumes.

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    2. Edinburgh Working ClassOctober 31, 2019 at 4:38 PM

      Might be some truth in that taking into account around a 3rd of SNP supporters backed Brexit.

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    3. Edith Snellgrove-WhitmanOctober 31, 2019 at 4:45 PM

      The vote leave 2016 vote contained an element that was an anti-establishment vote that was to give Cameron a kicking.

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  14. Confused here. SNP up .3 in UK wide samples. Puts you in 56 to 58 mode. Financial info says ALL seats are in play for SNP and only local/ personal popularity would keep a seat if polls hold true. Sinn Fein in Play for mandate in Ireland by way of two to three seat possible pickup. These are the folks who knew Dec 12 as firm date early last week.

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    1. Do you like ships with your spam.

      Delete
  16. Does anyone else here sook the skittery arse water of hungover sumo wrestlers through a straw whilst stickiing ghost chilli doon their foreskin? Is this the correct internet community for me? I would like to know your thoughts.

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    1. We think you are a Yoon Zoomer.

      Get on the M74 southbound fast lane.

      Now.

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    2. Try wings. Particularly if you like your sumo wrestlers trans.

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  17. I had an encounter of sorts with **n** once, about 1986 or 7. It was a Sunday morning in Bath, about 8 am, and I was walking across the square to the shop to get some milk. There was nobody about. Then a car pulled up across the road, and out popped **n**. We looked at each other, and despite being a huge fan of his, I decided to pretend I didn't recognise him, and just walked on. I think that was what his look was telling me to do ! Fair enough !

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  18. I see Johnson has been given a solid endorsement by Trump.

    No wonder Ruth stepped down.

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  19. Next time you're in Bath bump in to Wings Campbell and remind him the First Minister mentions Independence daily, Campbell has either reverted to his previous Liberal Democrat lying ways or he's just mentally unstable because he never shuts up about his hatred of Nicola Sturgeon these days, of course she's just the latest in a long line of women politicians Stuart Campbell seems to hate

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    1. Wings is infested with Unionists now who wholeheartedly support his Nicola Sturgeon / SNP Baad stance. What I can't figure out is why the few genuine independence supporters on there, mostly fairly intelligent, can't see what's going on. They don't seem to realise that Campbell no longer supports the Independence movement. Probably been bought and sold for ...

      There's masses of Unionist issues that he could be covering right now, but no his focus is on doing the SNP down almost on a daily basis between his articles and comments on twitter.

      If the truth ever comes out about him, as it will, he'll not only have to move out of Bath but out of the country altogether.

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  20. I got an email today from the snp about independence and how Scotland's future should be in Scotland's hands. Key message for the UKGE.

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    1. Would like to know if the Nat sis will nationalise the Capitalist banks and public transport. Also if they will adhere to EU austerity budgets and the attacks on workers conditions. Macron the Rothchild banker was bored in Rouen the other day and bugged out quickly.

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    2. These things all require independence.

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    3. However they are not on the Nat si or UK agenda. So you just want Scottish Nat si local rule but still run from Brussels who will dictate our spending, farming, fisheries and tax levels. Why not just abandon Holyrood save taxpayers money and let the EU run the show.

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  21. The EU was bringing in new rules to force the UK to pay average EU pensions because they got fed up asking
    That would have meant the Tories upping the average state pension by more than £100 per week
    Now ask yourself why Brexit's so important to the Tories

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    1. The EU should not be bringing in any rules that effect the UK or indeed forcing any country to do its bidding. We joined the EEC to trade. Your comment is Nat si fake information.

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    2. OTOH,you are just being ridiculous, as per usual. You are, obviously, delighted at your poor poor pension? Well you are somewhat of a masochist.

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    3. And you are a liar.

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  22. I note Question Time has the EU Irish gobshit on the panel. One of the EU elites who has made her fortune while the Irish working class suffer from EU/Irish austerity.

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    1. David McWilliams would have been a better guest. Especially if he'd done "The Days Of Pearly Spencer".

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  23. It's now a case of adding in the Greens there too...

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