Friday, August 30, 2019

BOMBSHELL POLLING ANALYSIS: Average of YouGov's Scottish subsamples since Boris Johnson became PM puts SNP on course for SEVENTEEN GAINS, and the Scottish Tories on course for ELEVEN LOSSES

The frustration continues: for some reason, we still haven't had a full-scale poll of Scottish voting intentions for Westminster (or indeed for Holyrood) since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister.  The change at the top has altered the trajectory of GB-wide polling, so it seems likely that the same will prove true in Scotland, but to what extent?

It's high time that we had a look at the next best thing to a full-scale poll.  YouGov announced a few years ago that they were starting to correctly structure and weight their Scottish subsamples for GB-wide polls, and it looks pretty likely from the relative stability of their figures that they've continued to do that ever since.  That doesn't mean that an individual Scottish subsample from YouGov can be treated as the equivalent of a full-scale poll - the margin of error on a correctly structured subsample of 150 or 200 is still much higher than the margin of error on a full sample of 1000 or 2000.  But averaging the figures over time can give you more meaningful results, and we're now in a position to do that, because there have been eight published YouGov subsamples with fieldwork that took place entirely after Mr Johnson entered Number 10.

YouGov Scottish subsample average since 24th July:

SNP 44.4%
Conservatives 19.3%
Liberal Democrats 12.8%
Labour 11.4%
Brexit Party 7.0%
Greens 4.0%

Westminster seat projection:

SNP 52 (+17)
Liberal Democrats 4 (n/c)
Conservatives 2 (-11)
Labour 1 (-6)

We shouldn't forget that, although the Tories have opened up a GB-wide lead, they haven't recovered to anything like the kind of levels of support that they had even a few months ago - they're still languishing in the low 30s, which normally wouldn't be enough to top the popular vote in a general election.  They're leading by default because their main opponents are polling at an unusually low level too.  In Scotland, it looks like they're not being so fortunate - yes, they've recovered a bit due to the Boris effect, but that's not doing them much good because their main opponent actually appears to be polling higher than in 2017.

The SNP are so far standing firm in the face of both the 'Boris bounce' and the 'Swinson surge' (the latter being a largely mythical thing anyway - the Lib Dem recovery preceded the change of leader).  I thought the result of the East Kilbride by-election last night was really interesting - Labour's vote slumped by eleven points, and it looked possible that a lot of those votes might have gone direct to the Lib Dems, who enjoyed a ten point boost.  The SNP seemed unaffected by the Lib Dem surge, and saw their own vote increase by four points.

OK, that's only one by-election and there may well have been local factors.  But if the Lib Dems start taking significant numbers of unionist/Remain votes away from Labour in seats that the Lib Dems can't possibly win in a million years, and if there is no substantial movement of votes from the SNP to the Lib Dems, the stars might just be aligning for a dramatic SNP landslide in terms of seats.

And who knows what effect Ruth Davidson's resignation will have on the above figures - if there are any moderate Scottish Tory voters left, they might start drifting off to the Lib Dems or somewhere else.

114 comments:

  1. I've just been polled a couple of hours ago by Survation. Asked about how I'd previously voted and how I would vote in future in Westminster, Holyrood, EU and independence referendums. Asked about opinion of party leaders, which parties I would or wouldn't consider voting for in future. Then asked loads of questions about Jo Swinson. She is my local MP but they asked about what I thought of her as a national leader. Polling for Lib Dems? Will be interesting to see whether anything is published.

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    1. A responsible pollster should be asking lots of extra questions about a new leader .

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    2. The questions were quite detailed; would I agree/disagree that she was bold, brave, innovative, trustworthy? Did I think she cared about Scotland, her constituents? Did I think she should concentrate more on her role as a national party leader or on her own constituency? To me, it seemed like more than the general questions you would ask about a new party leader.

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    3. That's constituency polling, then. Could be the Lib Dems themselves, or it could be the SNP trying to find a promising line of attack in East Dunbartonshire.

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    4. The way the "bold/brave/innovative/trustworthy " questions were lined up seemed a bit leading to me. I suspect the Lib Dems. Maybe trying to test the waters as to whether she would be better to fight E. Dunb ir try for a "safe" seat in England?

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    5. It may well be Lib Dem polling, but I think the chances of Swinson switching to an English seat are practically zero. There's no need for her to do it - unless something very strange happens, East Dunbartonshire looks safe for the Lib Dems.

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    6. Yeah, there aren't exactly a lot of safe Lib Dem seats in England at the moment. ED is about as good as it gets.

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  2. The truth is is that the Scottish Unionist vote remains solid. Once brexit is over it will consolidate. You have to laugh at the desperation of those that want to be subservient to the EU fascist regime..Independence in Europe and release your potential must be the most stupid political jokes since sliced breid was invented.

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    1. Hmmm. Doesn't look very solid to me.

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    2. Kind of solid then young James. Let's face it inspite of the Brexit thingy you Nat sis are not really well and truly ahead in the game. You have to abandon handing Scotland over to the Brussels Frankfurt fascist alliance.

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    3. The SNP lead is 25.1 points. Just how far would they have to be ahead before you'd be impressed?

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    4. Nat sis never impress me and never will. Divisive and sectarian anti English political thought will be a dead end for Scotland. When you control education and brainwashing our children with your English hatred then you can claim victory of sorts.

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    5. Not sure why you spend your entire life hanging around a pro independence website then dearie.

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    6. Cowards like GWC have never impressed me you are just gutless. The SNP are in a much better position than any of your lying Yoon parties never mind Gutless we can all not just smell your Fear but taste it and it's so, so sweet! Bye for now Gutless GWC. You should just drop the G as your comments come straight out of the WC.

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    7. The only arguments in Europe are who gets which slice of the UK economy. Czechia the car industry, Frankfurt the banking, Italy and France the engineering.
      All so you can do what? Trade with countries with an average wage of £350 a year. Not going to sell many financial services and insurance policies in Uganda. Trade agreements with India will require that abandonment of visa and residency requirements. That is to say unrestricted Indian immigration for a poorer trade deal that you currently have with India while in the EU. You are a sheep who voted for wolves who are going to invite all their friends in for dinner. Dinner = Lamb chop YOU.
      Gonna call you Lamb Chop from now on.

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  3. Even on those figures the SNP would still fall 4 seats short of the 56 they won in 2015 in Scotland

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    1. SNP tumbles in fantastic Fail!! When will Sturgeon resign? Can I have the headline writing job now

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    2. They could get less than 52. Or they could win ever seat. Or 56, or 58.. It's a First Past the Post system where virtually ever UK government has dictatorial rule on a minority of the vote. But if you claim it is illegitimate then you are saying ALL UK governments are illegitimate.
      Since the UK government has refused to agree to a future referendum they have justified using the Hollyrood and Westminster Scottish majorities as the legitimate expression of Scotland's political will. My country declare the restoration of independence on that basis and it was recognised as legitimate internationally while our supposed overlords denied it for over a decade.

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  4. I'm really interested in using GB polls for this purpose but I'm pretty sure the statistics are damn complicated to work out. Is there a rational? Do you use only one polling companies weighted figures? Each sub sample has unusable error - how does error get amalgamated?
    If you've got the knack then there would be a keen interest in your analysis. Got to show the working though and accept challenge. I'd do it myself if I wasn't incompetent.

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    1. I'm not really sure what you're asking. The blogpost is crystal-clear about what I did - I used YouGov subsamples only, and it's a straightforward (mean) average.

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    2. This is literally what James does. He has a system. He DOES police it to make sure it is fair. He is one of the best polling analysts in the world. If you want to know how biased your media is : he actually has not been hired by the BBC or anyone else. In the USA all the top people (poblemos,Harry F. etc get paid by big media companies.

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    3. Greetings from the hairy cow.
      It is just an average of YouGov Scottish subsamples, and the weighting is already done by YouGov (Only YouGov provide this). It is all explained above, and there is nothing complicated or dodgy going on.
      You can regard it as approximately the same as a standard poll, albeit sampled over a much longer time period. Obviously you have to treat with the same caution as any polling data, in that there is always some sampling error,and different polsters (YouGov in this case) have different methodological biases.
      Hope this helps.

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  5. So, here's what I think of as an interesting question.

    Currently, the Tories with their DUP allies have a majority of one vote should democracy be resumed in the House of Commons. Losing 11 seats in Scotland alone would seem to raise the question that they might lose their overall working majority.
    Given such a situation, would the SNP be willing to join a government coalition in exchange for a solid commitment to hold a 2nd independence referendum and a commitment to honor a winning yes vote from the Tories? In such a situation, the SNP might be willing to make that offer to both Labor and Tory factions to form a coalition government in exchange for a open shot at independence.
    From a distance, it appears that SNP is closer to Labor. But, without the threat of being willing to make a deal with the Tories, they might not get Labor to offer such a deal. So, if the stakes were for independence, would the Scots be willing to pair with partners like Boris and Ress-Moog?

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    1. The phase 'never trust a Tory' wasn't coined for no reason.

      It has firm basis in fact; as the international community is currently learning right now.

      Welching on agreed deals is their specialty.

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    2. Conservatives are a party of white English supremacy. They could not even go down the route of even suggesting Canadian style Dominion status so have nothing to offer. Anything they ever offered anyway no one would ever trust them to deliver. That lack of trust is the price they pay for being, well " a bunch of utter bastards ".

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  6. Can't we organise polling independently,perhaps through crowd funding?

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    1. Yes, theoretically we could. The Panelbase polls for Wings are effectively crowdfunded, albeit indirectly.

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  7. Putting our faith in London/UK parties to grant us permission for Indyref2 means we'll all be deid and never see a free Scotland.
    Unless this is just a tactic to expose the duplicity of the BritNat parties I fear for the Indy movement.
    There comes a time where a decision has to be made.
    Grant us patience God, but hurry up.

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    1. You can be free when you allow the EU to run Scotland and the uncle Tom's line their pockets.

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    2. How can you be free while allowing the UK to run Scotland and the uncle Moggs to line their pockets?

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    3. EU membership is 10% of the cost of UK membership. It's dirt cheap by comparison and you make the vast majority of your own laws.

      UK takes every single penny you earn, pisses it away on shiny train sets for England + giant radioactive penis extensions, and even when you think you can make your own laws (e.g. agriculture, fishing post brexit), the UK just simply overrules you in power grabs.

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    4. The big difference is that an independent Scotland could choose to leave the EU if its people decide. As part of the YooKay we have no say whatsoever. 62% vote for remain and we are still getting dragged out. Why can't the BritNat house jocks understand this? Oh I forgot - they dont want to understand. Cognitive dissonance can cause pretty stubborn dumbads behaviour eh?

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    5. Luigi sounds like an Eyetie name to me. Time you were away back home, lad.

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  8. The current UK administration is so reminiscent of Hitlers bunker in the film 'Downfall'.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49532243

    Sajid Javid 'voiced anger' to PM over adviser sacking

    Boris is a one man government; he would love to be a true dictator.

    But the end of the UK is so very near. Scottish indy and Irish reunification are at the end of the street now, yet still he's moving imaginary armies around.

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  9. I see Brit thugs are attacking Irish people who were marching in support of finally wiping from history the Berlin (Belfast?) wall / iron curtain in Ireland and reunifying the country.

    One of the benefits of independence will be this sort of shit vanishing from our Scottish streets.

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  10. As for the poll numbers, given most people won't be able to vote Green (or won't do so for tactical reasons as per historic elections), you'd expect SNP share to be closer to 48%.

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    1. Although in fairness, it may work the same way for the Tories in respect of the Brexit Party. Farage has given a pretty strong hint that he won't stand in every seat if Johnson goes for No Deal.

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    2. James, why are there almost no local polls over there? In USA we get polls for congressional districts all the time. We got 4 in two days in NC - 09 last week alone. Why doesn't one poll by seat based on who is actually running?

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  11. Irish Republican catholic thugs disguised as Marxists causing mayhem in the Scottish Nat si stronghold of Govan last night. Deport the lot after Brexit.

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    1. Deport people born in Scotland? Or are you claiming only white protestants can be Scottish? A little clarity please.

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    2. The cenotaph commemorates many Irish, and others, alongside the Scots.

      British thugs desecrated it yesterday.

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  12. One of the poorest areas in Glasgow and guess who the political leader is. Just looking at political cartoon from 1975 and guess what Skier the Jocko Nat sis along with Sinn Fein IRA are lined up with alsorts opposing the EEC. Just shows what can happen with the mind change when pockets are lined.

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    1. Like the Tories were with the foreign money brought in via the DUP?

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  13. Tamas Arsius, if their loyalty is to a foreign country then we would be doing them a favour and it would cut our welfare payments. Most of them spend their day bevvying in a certain pub near Craigton Rd.

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    1. Ireland isn't legally foreign in the UK. Don't disrespect Great British law in this way.

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    2. "loyalty to a foreign country" Ha ha ha ha ha. You just refuse to see the irony, don't you?

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    3. I am a Brit Scot so do explain your own irony.

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    4. As a Brit Scot do you wear paper hats?
      Thank you.

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  14. Why does the BBC talk about Irish marchers, but just 'loyalist' groups? Why not 'British loyalist groups'?

    These are loyal British people. The most patriotic of Brits. Defenders of the British union. Why not mention that?

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    1. You are doing it for them. However this Irish group should be banned

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    2. What they loyalists don't know is that Boris wants the backstop and will dump N. Ireland as soon as he can.

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    3. Are you talking about the anti-catholic thug war criminals who burn fires in front of kids houses and riot thru the city?

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  15. As mentioned yesterday:

    Tory rebels face being kicked out of the Party…
    https://www.conservativehome.com/frontpage/2019/08/newslinks-for-saturday-31st-august-2019.html?utm_campaign=twitter&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitter

    Thats going to end well.

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    1. I agree, although brexit is now core Tory policy. The conservatives have become the English nationalist party. The British unionist, pro-EU, one nation Tories have finally been toppled. It's all part of the final end of the empire / UK. Just as Scotland is moving to becoming Scotland again, so is England. The only difference is that for English nationalists, England and Britain are synonymous (and that's correct as England + Wales = Britain). When Cameron said 'Britain', he meant the UKoGB. Boris means England.

      Anyway, going forward, the rebels are like SNP MSPs/MPs that don't support independence.

      Hammond et al. need to join the Lib Dems. They're just Tories with a smile these days anyway.

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    2. This is obviously why Davidson has resigned, hotly following the fired Mundell. They might as well be a different party to Boris's English nationalists.

      The Scottish Tories are all one nation unionists. Boris has broken the primary party of the union from the mouth of the Tweed to the solway firth.

      This means all pro-UK parties in Scotland are now broken.

      The Lib Dems killed themselves with their English Tory coalition. English Labour killed themselves with their bettertogether Tory coalition. And now, finally, the English nationalist Tories have broken the UK party with it (we can expect), the union finally.

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    3. At some point soon, Boris will betray the N. Irish unionists (which he must if brexit is to not ruin England) and with that, the Scottish unionists. And so the union will end, broken by England.

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    4. When the ROI/EU set uo border points and promote violence against the loyalist community Boris will then send in our troops. The EU will break the Belfast Agreement and their erse lick Dug the ROI will fully comply attempting to blame the UK. As an afterthought just wondering if the EU could send troops to Support Sinn Fein IRA.

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    5. Sorry but the violence will be ALL responsibility of England. America not responsible for WW2 after Japan broke treaty and attacked us. If British break Good Friday agreement that has brought peace and prosperity,Irish are free to defend themselves.SF has kept peace.

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    6. SF has been regrouping since the phoney peace. The EU is just another excuse for war. The British will destroy them next time round. Catholics love war and child abuse.

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    7. If they set up a border between Gib and Dagoland I'll bet Fanny Fandango will hang her nickers on it. So she can big it up. Now.

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  16. All MPs who voted to hold the referendum and lied about leaving should be booted out. The Scottish Nat sis did not support the referendum so they are intact even though they thought the people were to stupid to vote.

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    1. I'm guessing you are talking about Boris JRM and the rest of the ERG. They of course, have repeatedly voted against leaving the EU earlier in the year. Hammond, Stewart etc voted to leave the EU three times under Mays premiership.

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    2. Aye, it's the brexiters who have blocked brexit so far and who will more than likely break the UK.

      May, Hammond, Ruthie et al., tried to get a softer brexit and so keep the UK together, but Boris and the English nats took them out, finally handing the Scot nats that elusive 50%+1 on a plate.

      In an independent Scotland, there will be a memorial to Boris and the ERG, thanking them for delivering what the SNP never quite managed.

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    3. Seems the Yanks have been listening in to EU communications with their paid Quislings. Knickerless sucking Barnier.

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    4. > even though they thought the people were to stupid to vote.

      It's "too".

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    5. Yanks like Boris you mean?

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    6. Hullo, boys.

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    7. What's grey and flies at one thousand miles per hour. Lord Mountbattens sandal.

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    8. Lord Mountbatten's teenager's sandal.

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  17. All those thousands of fascist remainers bumping their gums in London Whitehall. And the stupid silent majority went to the polls and fucked them. How it must hurt them just like the almost mass suicide amongst the Jock Nat sis after the 2014 Jock referendum. Stand firm against the Nazis Boris.

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    1. Did Lord Mountbatten bump his gums a lot?

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  18. James Connolly was born and bred Scottish; he had a broad Scots accent his whole life. He served with the 2nd Battalion of the Royal Scots for 7 years, so would deserve to stand with pride by the cenotaph, unlike the Brits thugs who desecrated it the other day.

    By contrast, King Billy wis a 'furriner'. 'Wan ae thae Europeans' who 'spoke funny'.

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    1. Billy was an intelligent man. He promoted religious freedom and was a supporter of Catholic monasteries. He did trash a few papes along the road but it was worth it unless you are a James the keech supporter.

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    2. He hated the British Army and the only connection he had with Scotland was he was born here. Sad that Ireland is still a right wing Conservative Catholic State. What would Connolly make of Ireland grovelling to the EU after all his struggles and his firing squad.

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  19. So England, what will it be, keep N. Ireland and no Brexit, or dump them and gain yer independence?

    I'm absolutely sure which one Boris's English nationalists will pick.

    There's a GE coming. One where the English nats will likely take England by storm while the Scot nats clean up north of Gretna.

    It doesn't take much thought to work out where that would lead the UK.

    I believe the Brahan seer said the UK would end due to a disagreement between Scotland and England over Europe, just like he said the Scottish parliament would re-open when you could walk tae france without getting yer feet wet.

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    1. Jeez, Boris thinks he can dae that tae mind!

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    2. Oh dear. Someone's patronising us again with the odd tartan word.

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    3. Hoots Mon. It's a braw bricht moonlicht nicht the nicht. The moo.

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    4. By George, what a lot of balderdash old boy! That just isn’t cricket. Queensbury Rules remember! Now there’s a good fellow. Pip pip!

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    5. Shut yer gusset. (Is that tartan enough?)

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  20. Latest polling has a 36 seat con majority. And that's being conservative. They are at or close to a ten point lead now and soaring ever upwards. Boris is looking good for dumping N. Ireland...

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  21. Goves's comments on Marr shows how much being sent to the EU for an extension would hurt them, they can't even acknowledge that they could be sent for an extension. FWIW the general consensus is that they could not ignore a bill sending them for an extension, basically becasue the queen is the head of state and the Government can't go against the will of the Queen (which she signifies by giving Royal Assent to a bill).

    A potential loophole is that whilst Parliament can send Boris asking for the EU its harder to to compel him to accept an extension. So he could to the EU ask for an extension and when the EU come back with the proposal for the length etc, just reject it. Or ask for an extension of 1 day and when that is rejected by the EU leave. Both would mean that he has done what Parliament has asked but could walk away without an extension.

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  22. The BIG BUSK on portobello prom yesterday.
    Two different YES stalls. Musselburgh and Niddrie Craigmillar.
    Also 2 different SNP tables and appearance by the local SNP MSP.
    We'll done you guys, and all who marched in Dunfermline and across Scotland.
    Nae signs o the NO mob!

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    1. Why write "Nae"? Every other word is in English. Can't you write Scots?
      #PatronisingTokenism

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    2. It is pretty clear you have never been to Scotland matsmar.

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    3. Or, for that matter, understand languages and how they are used.

      You are just too 'bourgeois'. Why don't you get out and take your 'fiancé' shopping in a 'chic boutique'. Your 'chauffeur' can take you. You could surprise her with a 'bouquet' of flowers and maybe some 'eau de Cologne'. Then you could both visit a 'restaurant' where you can have an 'apéritif' while you consider the 'menu'. You never know, you might spot someone who gives you a sense of 'déjà vu!'.

      Anyway 'c'est la vie'. Let's get back to our 'critique' of boris and his 'coup'.

      But just don't let anyone tell you you are not speaking correctly!

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    4. ������

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    5. Go on then, Albert Einstein and explain to me hoo languages work. I'm all ears.

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    6. You are free to use them as you like, so can mix and match to your heart is content, unless, for example, it is clearly specified otherwise (such as foreign languages exam). The golden rule is that you speak in a way that will be understood; if that is your intent of course (you may wish not to be!).

      The mixing of languages is what people do normally, particularly in multilingual countries, of which Scotland is an example. When two people who speak different languages meet; they may speak three or more as they try to be understood in the quickest manner. Only a prize idiot would not understand this.

      Even in England, English people mix French (and other languages) with English on a daily basis. It is the norm to chuck in the odd French word.

      I can tell you never visit Scotland as if you did, you'd be aware that most Scots speak (mainly) a mixture of Scots, Scottish English and Gaelic (many Scots and some Scottish English words are also Gaelic) - Scotland's three official languages - on a daily basis. This includes entire sentences of each or mixed sentences involving words for both. What they say can be 100% of one or seemingly random proportions of each intertwined. It will really depend on the circumstances. With other Scots they tend to use more Scots and Gaelic; with English speakers (including foreign visitors) they tend to English.

      In my house, we speak a mixture of Scots, Scottish English, French English, English English, French, and of course with some Gaelic words thrown in here and there. Whatever single language or mix is appropriate. This is perfectly normally given we are all variably fluent in these.

      If you walk around speaking/listening to (what is close to a) single language, it suggests you don’t live in a very mono-cultural world, don’t have any international friends (not even from other UK countries) and don’t travel to other nations. You need to get out more if that’s the case.

      What is patronising is to mock / denigrate people for the way they speak / their choice of languages. That wins your opponents votes.

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    7. Why not write in Scots? Or even your domestic mélange? Is only English good enough to write in?

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    8. Seems you can't read or understand English.

      There are non-Scots speakers on this forum. It's international. If folk want to be understood, they use a version of English. Scots would normally employ Scottish standard English, which they are fluent in. While not the same English as people in e.g. England learn, it is close enough for mutual understanding.

      Ramstan is polite. You by contrast, are a patronising dick head.

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    9. I was at doctors surgery today in Scotchland and the receptionist told me to 'take a wee seat' while I waited. No only that, but when I asked her to confirm an address, she replied 'Aye, that's correct'.

      Why can't she speak Scotch or Queens English!

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    10. Why can't the BBC use just English! How patronising!

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/articles/6cPQ9PjVvPfgjjDRlqbBLT/deja-vu-eight-things-you-probably-havent-heard-before

      Déjà vu: Eight things you probably haven't heard before

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/topics/2010s_coups_d%27%C3%A9tat_and_coup_attempts

      2010s coups d'état and coup attempts

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  23. Skier, it was a white English supremist coup by the coup kluz clan.

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  24. "Coo clucks clan". It's a headline from a Jockistani farming magazine. Hee hee.

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  25. Matsmar, ye arnae the first an nae doot winna be the last Unionist tae post here that haes a sair disdain for the Scots leid/language.
    For me tae yaise Scots canna be patronising as I yaise it gey near every day o ma life, as dae maist o ma faimly.
    It's an orra thing tae that ye dinna hae ony comment on the subject o ma post.
    YES groups and SNP oot engaging wi the fowk, an aw you can greet an girn aboot is the yuiss o ae Scots word!
    Thanks skier, that fair put this radge's gas at a peep.
    Anti Scots prejudice is a sign of self loathing we can weel dae withoot.

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    1. "Anti Scots prejudice is a sign of self loathing..."
      No Scots words to express that, then. Awww...

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    2. The word 'express' comes from French and, originally, is based on latin.

      Why can't you use fully English words.

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    3. Ok, you don't have to. England doesn't really have it's own historic native language. English is mainly just a bastardised hybrid of West German Anglo-Frisian and French brought in by migrants.

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    4. Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear. Too much time on your hands. Get a job!

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    5. I'm on holiday. Why have you time on your hands?

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    6. I have independent means.

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  26. You get the feeling that Boris may be pushing his luck with his vote with us or deselected line.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/02/brexit-latest-news-boris-johnson-threatening-to-deselect-tory-rebels-to-provoke-early-election-claims-gauke-live-news

    his is what Charles Walker, a Brexiter Tory and acting co-chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, told the Daily Telegraph about Johnson’s strategy. Walker said:

    I say, as a committed Brexiteer and acting co-chair of the 1922, that talk of purging good Conservatives, who were serving in government up until late July, from our ranks is extremely unpleasant and the idea is one that must be resisted.

    Especially as many of the Cabinet went against the whip under May:

    Boris Johnson, prime minister: Voted against Theresa May’s Brexit deal in first two votes

    Dominic Raab, foreign secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes

    Priti Patel, home secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in all three votes

    Grant Shapps, transport secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes

    Theresa Villiers, environment secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in all three votes

    Esther McVey, housing minister: Voted against May’s Brexit deal twice

    Amber Rudd, work and pensions secretary: Abstained in vote on ruling out no-deal Brexit in all circumstances in March, despite government MPs being under orders to vote against

    Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the Commons: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes

    He might scare some of the newer/younger MPs into line, but for MPs who have already said they will stand down, this will make no difference. Same with Mps like Hammond who's political career has now past its peak.

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  27. https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/gallery/2014/sep/19/every-single-country-that-has-left-the-united-kingdom-mapped?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Every country that has left the United Kingdom's rule - in maps

    I guess British rule just isn't that 'Great'.

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  28. For folks with shit for brains.

    Scots don't 'share' a language with England, no more so than the Danes do with Norway. Scottish English is similar to English to be almost interchangable, but is also very distinct.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_English

    Scottish English is the set of dialects of the English language spoken in Scotland. The transregional, standardized variety is called Scottish Standard English or Standard Scottish English (SSE).[1][2][3] Scottish Standard English may be defined as "the characteristic speech of the professional class [in Scotland] and the accepted norm in schools".[4] IETF language tag for "Scottish Standard English" is en-Scotland.[5]

    In addition to distinct pronunciation, grammar and expressions, Scottish English has distinctive vocabulary, particularly pertaining to Scottish institutions such as the Church of Scotland, local government and the education and legal systems.

    Scottish Standard English is at one end of a bipolar linguistic continuum, with focused broad Scots at the other.[6] Scottish English may be influenced to varying degrees by Scots.[7][8] Many Scots speakers separate Scots and Scottish English as different registers depending on social circumstances.[9] Some speakers code switch clearly from one to the other while others style shift in a less predictable and more fluctuating manner.[9] Generally there is a shift to Scottish English in formal situations or with individuals of a higher social status.[10]


    The likes of the SNP understand this, which is why they keep winning elections.

    Unionists don't, or they pretend they don't, and patronise Scottish people in terms of how they speak, which is in a good part why Yes is now >50%.

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    1. Let me get this right... The SNP keep winning elections because they understand that Scottish Standard English is some kind of bipolar continuum. Thanks for explain Scottish politics so lucidly.

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    2. No, amongst other factors, they understand that insulting Scottish (nationally identifying) people doesn't win elections. This is even more of a no-no if your are not even Scottish, but e.g. British, English...

      This is something many unionists struggle with though it appears.

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    3. The Scots, Welsh, NI and English are British. The UK will British will prevail and the petty Nats who want to sell out their pretend independence to the EU fascists will lose sorely.

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  29. This has been Bozo's plan all along. He needs shot of N. Ireland / the DUP or England cannot survive post brexit.

    A no deal exit as it stands would be just like now - i.e. no deal with the EU, the USA or beyond unless the backstop is in place - but with a massive economic contraction, empty shelves and riots.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49549960

    But if polls are correct, the SNP would be given another massive mandate for iref2; one that would comfortably eclipse any mandate boris managed to pull off.

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    1. Balderdash! Just keep your kilt on and don't panic.

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