Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Is the end NIGH for Our Precious Union? EARTH-SHAKING poll of LABOUR MEMBERS shows huge support for independence

It may seem odd to be talking about a poll of Labour members on the day that Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative party, but it's a bit difficult to get too excited about an event that has been predetermined for weeks.  (Even the BBC seemed more animated about the end of "the Anne Milton era" than about the new Prime Minister.)  And this is a pretty sensational poll by any standards.  Who would have believed that the UK-wide membership of one of the main anti-independence parties would be split down the middle on independence?  Not on the question of whether Scotland should be allowed to choose its own future, not on the question of whether they should reluctantly "allow" Scotland to "go" if it insists, but on the very principle of whether independence would be a good thing?

Would you support or oppose Scotland becoming an independent country?  (YouGov poll of UK Labour members)

Support 39%
Oppose 41% 

With Don't Knows excluded, that works out as roughly 49% in favour, and 51% against - in other words a statistical tie.  Ironically, there's a greater level of opposition to independence in the subsample of Scottish members, but there are two points to bear in mind about that: a) the subsample is so tiny that it can't be considered statistically robust, and b) the result is exactly what you'd expect anyway, because in Scotland all the sensible progressives have long since decamped to the SNP, leaving behind unionist diehards for the most part.  According to YouGov's weighting scheme, just 2% of the current Labour membership live in Scotland.  (It ought to be a little over 8% if it was in line with population share.)

All of this begs the obvious question: if the Labour leadership aren't acting on behalf of their own members when they seek to to turn the UK into a prison from which Scotland is permitted no escape, who are they acting for?  The London establishment?  Who is pulling the strings, and why is it being allowed to happen?

Elsewhere in the poll, an astonishing 83% of Labour members would be in favour of a deal with the SNP if their own party falls short of a majority - another point on which the Labour leadership is hopelessly out of line with its members' wishes.  Even the Scottish subsample is in favour of working with the SNP, albeit by a predictably narrower margin.

*  *  *

I've made this point before, but something highly unusual will happen tomorrow.  I can't think of another example since the war when a mid-term change of Prime Minister effectively amounted to a change of government, because the programme for government of the new Prime Minister is so different from that of the outgoing Prime Minister.  The only partial exception is John Major, who ditched Margaret Thatcher's flagship policy of the poll tax, but even Major basically persevered with Thatcherism in all other respects.

The crucial point is that a new government will take office tomorrow with hardly any moral or democratic authority at all.  The people didn't elect it, and it barely enjoys a majority in parliament - even if you include the DUP in the government ranks and exclude Sinn Féin from the opposition tally, the majority is just two, and will fall to one if the Liberal Democrats get their expected win in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election next week.  I'd suggest that, irrespective of tactical considerations, such a government shouldn't be allowed to take office without facing a motion of no confidence within the first 24 hours.  Basic principles of democracy demand that a mandate should be established, or that there should be an election if the mandate turns out not to be there.

31 comments:

  1. I agree James and a smart political move would be for Labour to table a VOC on Thursday, it would probably fail at this stage, but at least they would of ticked the box of trying.

    If they don't then they loose alot of their attack lines, you cannot say that Borris has not got the confidence of parliament and/or say that he is the wrong person for the job, if you have not held a VOC.

    Of course if 2 or more conservatives cross the floor before Thursday, then he cannot become PM as he will not be able to say that he has the confidence of the house, which is a requirement for him to be appointed.

    Will the latter happen, unlikely, I don't think the Conservatives MPs are ready to take the nucular option this side of the recess.

    As for the former, think its 50/50, if it does happen the Commons will have to sit on the Friday, so keep an eye out for leaks from Labour MPs that they are being told to be available on the 25th (which would normally be the first day of recess)

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  2. If there is a VonC and no new coalition formed within 14 days then that would trigger a GE at most six weeks later. So the last week or so in September.

    Despite the overly enthusiastic polling of the Brexit Party how that'd effect results depends on it's distribution and where it came from in individual constituencies.

    If there's a real possibility that Johnson is serious about suspending Parliament in order to prevent it intervening in the default No Deal taking place then they need to stop him.

    Their other option is to jump on him with a Contempt of Parliament charge and suspend him from the house the minute word of his petition the Queen reached them. In extremis they can actually jail him.

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    Replies
    1. Can Johnson prorogue Parliament given the recent vote on a motion by Dominic Grieve (I think) which means Parliament must be continuously informed on the progress in re-establishing Storming? Which in turn means Parliament must remain sitting.
      Or have I misunderstood the implications of the vote?

      Delete
  3. The desperation by you Nat sis to have the EU run Scotland is beyond belief. Even the real fascist Sinn Fein IRA have abandoned their Nat si tri colour for the EU flag as demonstrated outside Belfast City Hall.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Robin of LocksleyJuly 23, 2019 at 9:00 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    2. Ach you Scots wir tried to get you by U Boat and all it took was money.

      Delete
    3. Robin of LocksleyJuly 24, 2019 at 11:51 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  4. The people of Scotland are sovereign in Scotland.Time to act upon it.

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  5. James,

    I hope you are right.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Independence for Scotland is the only option to get Scotland out of the mess that is the UK.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glesga Drug Dealer and PoliticianJuly 23, 2019 at 11:52 PM

      Scotland is independent. Uz Jock drug dealers have hunners of politicians ripping aff the Taxpayer.

      Delete
    2. Robin of LocksleyJuly 24, 2019 at 12:08 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  7. Nicola Fisch. Iron Cross Holder.July 24, 2019 at 12:12 AM

    We are a proud independent nation who have fought to leave the United Kingdom and I proudly declare that Scotland will be run from Germany.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scotland will have a veto and will use it to enforce the backstop.

      Delete
    2. Robin of LocksleyJuly 24, 2019 at 11:52 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  8. In answer to your "obvious question: if the Labour leadership aren't acting on behalf of their own members when they seek to to turn the UK into a prison from which Scotland is permitted no escape, who are they acting for? The London establishment? Who is pulling the strings, and why is it being allowed to happen?"

    I think it's been quite clear from the beginning of Corbyn's stint as Labour leader that he has been doing what is, on paper, the right thing in respect of Scotland (emphasis on ON PAPER). That is, he has recognised that he knows nothing about Scotland, and cares less, and so he has taken the lead on all fronts from the 'top men' in the Scottish branch of the party. One can see why, on paper, this is 'the right thing' to do and simultaneously why, in practice, it has proven to be disastrous. The 'top men' of the Scottish Labour party are as cretinously Unionist as they are incompetent. I don't think that there's any great conspiracy here - I doubt, for once, that the issue can be laid at the door of London or Westminster - Labour's decision to ignore the democratic will of the Scottish people is one which ultimately holds its roots in the attitudes of senior Labour members in Scotland.

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  9. Right, so Scotland will have an unelected English dictator this afternoon.

    BJ led Tory vote shares (Scotland and/or UK):
    0% 2016
    0% 2017a
    0% 2017b
    0% 2019

    That's quite a mandate for 'You jock Hamish turds can't have your independence unless I say so'.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My legs are cool.
      How do you say that in English then?

      Delete
  10. Yesterday evening on BBC Reporting Scotland, Sally Magnusson said something that struck me as odd. "There has been polling that suggested that support for independence would go up, as far as 60% in one poll, if Boris Johnson became PM."

    60%?

    Does anyone remember that poll? The only one I can recall was 53%.

    11:50 into this:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0007494/reporting-scotland-evening-news-23072019

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I saw this here:

      https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-49083746

      'Some recent polling evidence suggests as many as 60% of voters could vote "yes" to independence if we leave the EU with no deal.'

      We are entering final stage unionism. Even the likes of Smith understand that.

      Delete
    2. A bozo led hard brexit would break the UK. Is England (and/or Jo Swindon) prepared to send in the black and tan jackboots to occupy Scotland, or will it accept a democratic vote for independence? The latter is much more likely as the international community is not on its side.

      Even a super soft brexit likely only buys it some time. The youth of Scotland just are not British; they are the future. The empire is the past.

      This is grudgingly being accepted by unionists, although they are still clinging on to hopes it can be avoided magically.

      BJ brexit breaks the soft unionist vote. 60%+ yes is readily possible, just like yes-yes in 1997.

      Delete
    3. Just heard the Nat si Blackford use the remainers new buzzword word, 'catastrophic'. He says he will not support crashing out but at the same time will not support any deal.
      If it gives Scotland independence then why does he not wish to crash out! His EU pals will surely give Scotland preferential treatment as they did Greece.

      Delete
    4. Robin of LocksleyJuly 24, 2019 at 11:56 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    5. Thanks for the link Skier. I wish I knew what that recent 60% poll for yes was. The BBC mention it again, there but no link. (I wonder if it's one where the details weren't released - maybe the secret Uk gov one?)

      Yeah, I agree, just about everyone has thinks that indy is inevitable now. Even the two most committed unionists I know grudgingly accept it's coming.

      Delete
    6. Could this be the secret Tory-commissioned poll that they've kept private?

      Delete
  11. The people of Scotland are sovereign in Scotland. Independence for Scotland is the only option to get Scotland out of the mess that is the UK.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Giving Boris support is the ticket to independence.

      Delete
    2. Robin of LocksleyJuly 24, 2019 at 11:55 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  12. Jings, GW, your beginning to sound like us.
    Gie yersel a shake, man.

    ReplyDelete