Wednesday, July 24, 2019

First straw in the wind from YouGov suggests SNP have carried their commanding lead into the era of Johnson and Swinson

The first opinion poll in the aftermath of Boris Johnson becoming Tory leader and Jo Swinson becoming Lib Dem leader was always going to be a moment of truth, because there was a reasonable expectation that there would be a honeymoon effect for Johnson, as has been the case for previous new Prime Ministers.  The fact that doesn't seem to be happening may effectively seal the Tories' fate in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election next week.

Britain-wide voting intentions (YouGov):

Conservatives 25% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 23% (+3)
Labour 19% (-2)
Brexit Party 17% (-2)
Greens 9% (+1)
SNP 4% (n/c)
Plaid Cymru 1% (n/c)
UKIP 1% (+1)

Scottish subsample: SNP 42%, Liberal Democrats 18%, Brexit Party 13%, Labour 11%, Conservatives 10%, Greens 5%

It's odd that Jo Swinson does appear to have boosted the Lib Dem vote given that she had far less airtime on Monday than Johnson had yesterday, but probably what's happened is that a small Boris Bounce has been factored in for a few weeks, because everyone was aware that he was going to become leader.  If that's right, the boost has been extremely modest - only a few percentage points.  Swinson is more of a novelty for people, which would explain why the Lib Dem bounce has happened at the actual moment of the leadership announcement.

Although YouGov's Scottish subsamples can be regarded as more meaningful than those of other firms (because they're properly structured and weighted), it would still be a mistake to take changes from one subsample to the next too seriously, because the small sample size means that any increase or drop in support for a party is more likely to be an illusion caused by normal sampling variation.  However, on the face of it, the Lib Dem vote has increased in Scotland at the expense of unionist parties and not the SNP - which would be the dream scenario.  If that pattern holds, we could see the Lib Dems splitting the unionist vote in a way that actually helps the SNP gain seats from the Tories.

61 comments:

  1. Jo Swindon is just a pro-eu Boris. She's already said Scottish indy is her decision, not that of Scots.

    So some of the tory vote has shifted.

    A 4-way hardcore unionist split now.

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    1. I saw Swinson on BBC Newsnight earlier and have to admit I can't remember a word she said. I spent all the time listening to his she was talking rather than what she was saying.
      She must have bought that accent from the same elocutionist that Lulu used.
      It's a crafty move: people are so mesmerised by her conviction of an accent that they don't pay attention to the Tory gospel she's punting.

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    2. Bloody predictive text! As reliable as Mystic McTernan.
      his = how
      conviction = concoction

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  2. With Richard Leopard's crew marginally ahead of Team Ruth, Labour must be ecstatic at this surge in their popularity.

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  3. Jo Swinson wants a people's vote for any deal. Who actually voted in the EU referendum if it was not people. Swindon is a pal of the Jock Nat sis, she is a fellow fascist who ignores the ballot box.

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    1. Robin of LocksleyJuly 24, 2019 at 10:34 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  4. I see Mundell has been sacked. My heart bleeds.

    This straight from the horses mouth:


    https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1154093304327356416

    Nick Boles MP
    @NickBoles
    The hard right has taken over the Conservative Party. Thatcherites, libertarians and No Deal Brexiters control it top to bottom. Liberal One Nation Conservatives have been ruthlessly culled. Only a few neutered captives are being kept on as window dressing.

    ---

    The hard right English nationalists have entered no 10. The union has very little time left now. Possibly measurable in weeks. Folk you'd never have believed would back indy are coming out for Yes.

    Scots can see that everything Yes warned them of in 2014 has come true.

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    1. You should be happy then! The problem Tory remainers have is this, will they give the anti semetic rascists in the Labour Party any chance of obtaining power. An other observation in the EU is the lack of fightback against austerity by the trade unions. The exception is the Yellow Vests which is being played down by the EU capitalist press.

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  5. Apparently Jack MacAlister will replace Mundell.

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    1. Alister Jack according to the BBC.

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    2. Jacking off maybe!

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    3. I feared it might be Nadine Dorries, so this guy must be an improvement on that, even though I've never heard of him.

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    4. Ross "Notice Me" ThomsonJuly 25, 2019 at 2:02 AM

      Will Jack McAllister have to finger Boris Johnstone to keep his job? Like Mundell had to finger May AND make the tea for the politicians to keep his.
      I didn't want the job anyhow.
      Don't care.

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  6. Skier, when the World press go to the Irish border and see the EU stopping NI vehicles going back and forth between NI and ROI and the British letting all vehicles have a straight flow without any stops we will see how opinion follows. The EU politicians are all about themselves and power. Trade and working people are secondary.

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    1. When the World press go to the Irish border and see the UK stopping EU vehicles to prevent immigration, they'll say "Just as we predicted.".

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    2. Ah skier you lost it there. Engage your brain again.

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    3. Robin of LocksleyJuly 24, 2019 at 11:30 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    4. Ah skier your lack of intelligence and argument is wanting. Robin of Locksley is dead. Now try again. Scotland is waiting.

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    5. Robin of LocksleyJuly 25, 2019 at 12:00 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

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    6. Boris is waiting sensible response.

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    7. Robin of Locksley a figure of English mythology has taken over a Scottish Independence blog. Sad indeed.

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    8. Robin of LocksleyJuly 25, 2019 at 1:58 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    9. It's only customs checks in N. Ireland that break the gfa. Only British checks break there are the problem.

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    10. There is no point exiting the EU if the brits leave their only land border wide open all the way to Turkey.

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    11. Imagine all those dreaded Romanians flooding into the precious union via Ireland. Then a quick border-free pop over to Cairnryan. Easy.

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    12. Checks on the Republic side or on the rUK side (hard border in the Irish Sea) are fully compatible with the GFA. Just no stopping immigrants/goods coming into the province from either side.

      This is why brits will soon be stopped coming off the ferry at Cairnryan if there is no deal.

      Or won't be maybe as there brits are not organised, and so the migrants will freely flood in.

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    13. Plane to Dublin. Bus to Belfast. Ferry to Cairnryan or Liverpool.
      Hard border in the North Channel and Irish Sea it is.

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    14. THere is already a 'hard boarder' for people between NI/Ireland and the UK. You have to show ID to travel between them currently so a Hard Brexit will make no difference in that respect.

      The main issue is regarding when and were goods are checked when crossing between the EU and UK.

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    15. Yes, the checks you note don't breach the gfa any more that the Irish doing the same in their country. Its only (British) checks in N. Ireland that breach the gfa.

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    16. Of course any new checks due to the UK hardening the border via brexit are undesirable. However, Irish checks in the Republic don't breach the gfa. They can do what they like in their own country. Its only brit jackboots stopping folks in N. Ireland that breaches the gfa. Also, obviously brits trying to end free movement for all eu citizens in N Ireland is a breach too.

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    17. Yea, can't stop EU citiens from crossing the border (would need a hard boarder to go that). however once in NI EU citizens would be subject to same checks and requirements to live and work in NI as the rest of UK. This of course would not be a breach.

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    18. Sorry, but if the English stasi start stopping an e.g. irish northern irish man from freely having a Romanian girlfriend or employing his Polish son in law without needing papers like he could before, then Britain has created a new hard migration border and broken the gfa.

      N. Ireland must retain full free movement for all eu citizens or the UK breaks the un peace agreement.

      This is why the backstop is in place. It preserves all free movement, including of people, to ensure the gfa holds.

      Britain can enforce its new brexit migration rules at Cairnryan. Ireland can do the same on its side of the n. Irish border. N. Ireland has no checks and keeps free movement.

      Again this is why the 'hard border in the Irish sea' is proposed by the international community. It allows brexit but keeps the gfa.

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    19. An irish man being forced to register his Polish girlfriend / even have her visa refused by the English stasi so she can't cross the border to their flat could not be a bigger breach of the gfa.

      If you want the troubles back, that would be how you do it; English jackboots telling Irish people who they can associate / work with.

      Hence the backstop.

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    20. Nope as long as Irish (either NI or RoI) citizens have free movement in Irland the GFA is kept. Asking someone to register their Polish girlfirend is no different that asking them to register their American one.

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    21. No, it's a breach of the gfa. Irish in N. Ireland must have the same rights of association as in the Republic. English nazis closing the border to people from the South, forcing registration of eu citizens Irish friends / family / denying visas to these breaches the gfa human rights of association. You might as well put barbed wire and swastikas on the border.

      You don't get to decide what breaches the gfa. The international community does this. It has decided full free movement must be kept, hence the backstop.

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    22. Christ, people being stopped was the biggest source of anger and violence. Nobody gives a shit if a freight train moves into a siding for inspection. They give a shit if an irishman pulls one night in the pub but English nazis stop him at the border on way home and turn his Italian girlfriend away because she's no visa.

      Or they give a shit if an irishman employs polish staff but these can't do a building job down the street as its across the new English enforced hard migration border

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    23. Full free movement must be kept for all eu people as if you don't, then you are closing the border and you might as well put back the watchtowers and machine guns.

      Hence the backstop.

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    24. Hard migration border at Cairnryan is fine.

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    25. Free movement for NI/Irish citizens, not for other EU citizens. The backstop says nothing about EU citizens from other EU countries having free movement, if you have a problem with that take it up with the EU.

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    26. Anyway, the backstop will happen in the end, so there is no need to argue about it.

      Its that or the UK will not get trade deals with anyone. Eu and US have made this clear enough.

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    27. Probably not, as Brexit is unlikely to happen. I would put money on this time next year UK Brexit being cancelled.

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    28. Is this the same Irish man with all the Polish, Romanian, Spanish and Italian girlfriends?

      Frankly I think you overestimate the sex appeal of the average Fermanagh resident.

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  7. Yes to splitting the unionist vote. In addition, I can't see NoJo making much of a bounce in Scotland, ruling out all sort of progressive coalitions, that might tempt consensus seeking voters, before even getting to an election (first with the SNP, now with JC-labour).

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  8. I got fisted by Purses. My dung hole is wide open for Boris and his big fists. Come Boris and open me up.

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    1. Robin of LocksleyJuly 25, 2019 at 6:32 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  9. I think the Tories are preparing to fight an election on "If you want to leave, vote for us and give us the majority to do it."

    The fly in their ointment has always been the DUP insisting NI is treated the same as GB.

    Tories don't give a fig about NI. NI doesn't want to leave the EU. Cleave it off (leave it in the EU) and GB can be the low-tax, zero-regulation NHS firesale that Tory dreams are made of.

    Prediction: October election. Tory/BXP government. DUP shafted, screaming betrayal. UK agrees to backstop only applies to NI and signs amended withdrawal agreement. Two or more years of "transition period" where UK/EU "Canada style" trade deal is worked out. Tories: "Scots must wait and see what brilliant trade deal we get before we allow indyref."

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  10. Brexiters never really thought brexit through did they?

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  11. James: to change topic slightly, if Ruth splits from the UK Conservative party to form a Scottish party, would she retain the list MSPs in Holyrood?

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    1. Interesting point. But Davidson isn't going to split from her bosses in London. Davidson does as instructed. Always obedient.

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    2. List MSPs who leave their party retain their seats.

      Sort-of interesting factlet: the precedent for this obviously undemocratic practice was set by Dorothy-Grace Elder leaving the SNP in 2002. It was up to the presiding officer, David Steel, to decide what should happen. So it's fair to surmise that the rules would be different if the first lister to defect had been a Lib Dem.

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    3. What Truthie does or does not do is indeed interesting as she holds the Edinburgh Central constituency seat and should not affect a waiting list of candidates. What might happen in the 2021 Holyrood election, ... well that right now is a long time away. Most here might hope Scotland will have an independence date set by then and any party that is not Scottish registered would be disbarred or gratuitously handing the result to those who are.

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    4. Ruthie, looks after Ruthie. If she feels her time is up and BJ aims to replace her, I think her ego will let her 'split'. But list MSPs are elected for the party, so if someone like Ross Thomson decides to remain with the UK Tories, so the party continues to exist, wouldn't the list seats remain with his party; should the incumbents follow Ruth? Interesting the post above from Keaton. But would that precedent be upheld if Ross complained? Ruthie could find herself the leader of the smallest party in Holyrood. And by splitting divide the Tory vote. James, worth a full post speculating on alternatives?

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    5. Jeremy Thorpe's GhostJuly 25, 2019 at 8:49 PM

      "obviously undemocratic practice"

      It is not *obviously* undemocratic, because you can't assume that the party, and not the individual, was the main attraction to voters. When Tommy Sheridan and Rosemary Byrne split from the SSP in the 2003-07 parliament, in the following election their new party beat the SSP in every region in Scotland. It is therefore difficult to argue that their seats should have reverted to the SSP at the moment of defection.

      The principle that voters ultimately elect an individual who is individually accountable is a good one IMO.

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    6. Of the two options available to Steel, he chose the one that makes less theoretical sense, and even in practice will be misaligned with how voters decide to assign their list vote in 75% of actual cases. So yes, pretty obviously undemocratic

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    7. What did David Steel have to do with it? Surely it was just part and parcel of the rules?

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  12. Nicky Fairbairn's GhostJuly 25, 2019 at 6:53 PM

    Only if they split with her

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  13. Everyone seems to be forgetting all the people, on either side of the Irish border, who travel back and forth every day for work, shopping, recreation, etc. During the troubles only the main roads were open with border posts, all crossing on the side roads were blown up by the British army.

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    1. Absolutely. I keep trying to emphasise that it's the free movement of people that is crucial to the gfa. It was restriction of this that caused the biggest anger and violence. It was about Irish being stopped by English gestapo as they crossed a fortified border the english had put up right across their country in living memory.

      Yet we have unionists suggesting that shutting the border to Irish EU family, friends and employees is all fine and in the spirit of the gfa. Its madness.

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    2. It is the ROI and their EU bum chums who will put up the barriers when we leave this corrupt unnecessary org.

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