Saturday, June 15, 2019

Richard Leonard begs for mercy as brutal YouGov subsample puts Scottish Labour on just 8% of the vote

This poll was released 24 hours ago, but it's worth flagging up, because it suggests that the Peterborough by-election has not resulted in the tide going back out on the Brexit Party.

Britain-wide voting intentions for Westminster (YouGov):

Brexit Party 26% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 22% (+2)
Labour 19% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-1)
Greens 8% (-1)
SNP 4% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
Change UK 1% (+1)

Scottish subsample: SNP 38%, Liberal Democrats 19%, Conservatives 15%, Brexit Party 11%, Labour 8%, Greens 6%, Change UK 2%, Women's Equality Party 1%

But surely, you might think, the Peterborough by-election did at least disprove the idea that the Brexit Party could win a general election in practice?  Maybe, but not necessarily.  Peterborough was won by Labour's superior organisation and local knowledge, but it's a lot easier to make full use of those advantages in a by-election, when people can be brought in from across the country.  The Brexit Party will fight a general election on a somewhat more level playing field.  Nevertheless, I do expect Farage to start going backwards in the near future, simply because Boris Johnson looks almost certain to become Prime Minister, and that will bring Brexiteer votes back to the Tory fold.  I expect that process to happen in Scotland as well, so in spite of the perception that a Boris premiership will be Christmas, birthday and Hogmanay rolled into one for Nicola Sturgeon, it may well be that the Scottish Tories' chances of holding their seats in the north-east are about to improve somewhat.

The YouGov subsample suggests that the Lib Dems may also be a slightly increasing threat to the SNP.  But let's be honest: for as long as Scottish Labour are on just 8% - that's EIGHT PER CENT - there's nothing much to fear from an early general election.  Most marginal seats in Scotland are SNP-Labour marginals.

UPDATE: Literally one minute after I posted the above, an even newer YouGov poll emerged, with perhaps the first early sign of a Boris Bounce for the Tories, who are up four points and have drawn level with Labour.  The Brexit Party are still in the lead, but have dropped two points.  The Lib Dems have slipped back to fourth place.

*  *  *

2019 Scot Goes Pop Fundraiser: This is Day 16 of the fundraiser, and so far £7076 has been raised. That's 83% of the way towards the target figure of £8500. A million thanks to everyone who has donated so far, and I'm also extremely grateful to all the people who have left a kind comment with their donation. You can visit the fundraising page HERE.

27 comments:

  1. The Male EU Commission Wine TastersJune 15, 2019 at 11:58 PM

    Frau Knickerless the Brexit lot are winning. I let you suck my boabie to remain but you must rise above this and fight the common enemy the British. Love your shoes in anticipation.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Robin of LocksleyJune 16, 2019 at 8:45 AM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  2. You'll have the sub-sample police after you again, Young James.

    Meanwhile can someone get good old Leasky to explain why a story about the Ulster Unionist MI5 plant who runs the Civil Service in Scotland is headlined the SNP Government and illustrated with a picture of Alex Salmond? Seems like an odd choice for an organisation so committed to informing the public with nothing but the truth.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On the subsample police point, I wouldn't be posting about individual subsamples unless they were YouGov subsamples, which are believed to be correctly structured and weighted, thus leaving the small sample size as the only problem (although admittedly that's still a significant problem). I suppose I should make that point every time, but it gets a bit tedious.

      Delete
  3. This isn't the first 8% for Lab in a subsample. Yougov have got that before while Opinium are finding similar.

    Labour are losing to the SNP, Liberals and Brexit; all the parties with clear positions on brexit.

    Only a prize idiot would think that, after voting both for the EUref and for article 50, that Labour could just fence sit on a plan for that while the country went up in flames, expecting everyone to just blame the Tories and vote Labour next time.

    A prize idiot like Corybn for example. The man's as big a fuckwit as Bozo, just a bit less anti-furriner.

    ReplyDelete
  4. When I see results like this then it makes me doubt the punters in Scotland it really does. only twice as many folk voting SNP as Lib Dem? Lib Dem ffs? Add the Tories and brexit together and that's over a quarter of voters polled. If you vote tory you are scum. You might not actually know it and you most certainly will have a higher opinion of yourself than that but you are the dross of this land. Then there is brexit? It make me doubt my fellow man. 4 times as many extreme right wing voters as there are punters willing to vote Green? I think we are fucked.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gordie
      You echo the despair I feel every day as I roam this land of ours.

      Delete
    2. Aye,Donald. It has gone well beyond the time of making excuses for folk. The British system has long experience in divide and rule but the punters who choose to go along with it have no excuses left in my view.

      Delete
  5. English Tories talking about suspending Westminster while the Scots Tories are saying Holyrood is not fit for purpose.

    You can see where this is going right?

    If we stay in the UK, there's a fair chance we won't get to vote to anything in due course. No Section 30 is the initial move to invalidate the 2016 result. If they get away with that, then why stop there? I mean it's not as if the Tories will ever win a Holyrood election. So, just have London take back control, even eliminating Westminster if it gets in the way.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Name the English Tories and Scottish Tories. You know the Holyrood gravy train is not required. They are a burden on the taxpayer.

      Delete
    2. Robin of LocksleyJune 17, 2019 at 11:15 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
  6. It's a real possibility. The tories have seen its been in the DUP,s interest to keep Stormant dormant. They fought tooth and nail against devolution and quite frankly the orange order lot want it shut down or severely neutered. Its amazing there's any ex or current Labour or lib dem voters in Scotland that campaigned for a Scottish Parliament that can't see what is happening here. It has to be independence and fast. Its been said before but I can honestly see it happening a new act of union at Westminster days after EU exit on the basis of strengthening our union but it will be a choke hold on Scotland Wales and NI and unfortunately your going to have total weapons like GWC that will willingly part their arse and take it. I have said this before but it can't be stressed enough when the referendum was called I was a no but the behaviour then and since of the British political establishment has hardened me more than ever that we need out pronto. Thank God we have committed bloggers I just wish we could get more to take notice of what is going on. At some point the SNP is going to have to ramp up and take the gloves off. The soft no,s they are chasing need these things shoved in their faces because as long as they play so nice they are easily ignored

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You give the Orange Order far too much importance. I reckon its your personal bigotry that makes you mention them. The NI population is 1.8 million. The OO membership is 34 thousand.

      Delete
    2. No I mentioned them because they are in bed with the tories simply because they have unionist in the title and many tory councillors etc have had links to them. There is no denying the tories have targeted that element. They are also more likely to back Brexit. As things progress it will be these people who will advocate shutting down holyrood and arses who call SNP nazis will basically be backing fascism. And by the way I know a fair few who are minded like that. You are right they are a minority views in Scotland but not the UK as a whole which is why they will go to any lengths deemed necessary in order to put Scotland under the heel of London. Loyalty in itself isn't a bad trait unfortunately theirs isn't to Scotland. It does not matter if you try to explain that they can't be unionist if it's serfdom they require. Also if you think the link between tories and OO is overstated I live in a tory run council where they have granted the OO to erect flag poles at a war cenetaph outside a school to fly there flags on the promise of paying for its upkeep. John Macleans grave sits near by funny how they don't put money into the upkeep of the memory of 1 of Scotland,s most influential figures

      Delete
    3. The OO are a working class organisation. And its a fine thing for any organisation to honor war veterans in any way they can. The council should pay for it a those who fought fascism allowe you to bump your gums on here. I assume you have never asked the council to honor John Maclean.

      Delete
    4. I'm going to correct myself because it's possible that Mcleans grave is just inside the Glasgow boundary so I'll hold my hands up if that is the case. Is it your opinion that the OO is purely a working class organisation? Do you have a membership roll? Nobody is saying anything is wrong with remembering the brave souls who made the ultimate sacrifice in our honour but there is a line when the war dead are used to further an imperialist agenda. The point is obviously lost that these men gave their life for freedom and democracy only for people to think shutting down democratic institutions is a legit course of action in order to preserve a union that is in all but name domination. There is no proud Scot but... now. I hoped for a way to avoid full on independence ie proper federalism but that shipped has sailed, its either a colony or a nation which 1 will you pick Anon

      Delete
    5. I do not subscribe to any religious organisation however I support their right to exist provided they are peaceful. As for Maclean he was a Bolshevic and must have known about the mass slaughter of the Kulaks.

      Delete
    6. Who said anything about banning the OO? I just don't want them having a degree of influence over public policy way above what you agree is a minority organisation. I don't want to ban the BNP but I don't want them in government either which is by the looks of things a watered down version we are getting at the moment thanks to ukip and the Brexit party. There are many things to disagree with John McLean now as we look back in hindsight but what you cannot deny is he was a working class champion and he saw the British imperial state for what it was long before the vast majority of Scots did. So anyway is it colony or nation?

      Delete
    7. In hindsight John McLean is of no historical significance. It was working class trade unionists and the Labour movement who delivered progress. Not Soviet Union adherents. The Scottish Nat si movement are insignificant in the class struggle and have delivered only personal gain.

      Delete
    8. So it's colony then. I thought you were an arse parter

      Delete
  7. So, the prospective PM is too chickenshit to go on the TV debate.

    What a pathetic coward. A joke of a man. How can a man who wets his pants and runs away at the mere prospect of a few questions on policy hope to lead the UK out of the brexit mess?

    I'm right in thinking May was chickenshit too yes? Well, we saw where that got her in the 2017 GE, which was the beginning of her long, painful demise.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "We will run from beaches, we will flee from the landing grounds, we shall turn tail and hide from TV debates....immediately shall we surrender!"

      Delete
    2. Boris is being clever and is not allowing the media to set the agenda. He knows the media do not like him and will twist anything he says.

      Delete
    3. Robin of LocksleyJune 17, 2019 at 11:16 PM

      Purse.
      Cordelia and purses.

      Delete
    4. You stealing purses from the English rich to help the Jockish poor who are destitute and sleeping rough on Scottish streets under this Holyrood bevvy merchant waster Government.

      Delete
  8. You've always got to assume that 25-33% of the electorate is lost to reason, i.e. prepared to vote neo-, quasi-, crypto- or out-and-out fascist, regardless of consequences. Depressing but true.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Based on the above it wouldn't surprise me to see an Electoral Pact between the English Nationalist Tory Party and the English Nationalist Brexit Party with Farage as the future Fuhrer.

    ReplyDelete