Sunday, May 19, 2019

The dream dies for Davidson as sensational Panelbase poll suggests the Scottish Tories face TOTAL WIPEOUT at Westminster, with the SNP poised to take almost every Scottish seat

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster (Panelbase):

SNP 38% (n/c)
Labour 19% (-2)
Conservatives 18% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+4)
Brexit Party 9% (+4)
Greens 3% (+1)
Change UK 2% (-1)
UKIP 1% (-1)

Panelbase have consistently reported a lower SNP share than other firms, so I would guess a new poll from YouGov or Survation might show the SNP in the low 40s.  But even if Panelbase are correct, what's happening is that Labour and the Tories are taking a hammering from the polarisation of politics along Remain v Leave lines, while the SNP are holding steady at roughly where they were at the last general election.  And when the voting system is first-past-the-post, that's all they need to do.  On the Electoral Calculus projection, they'd win almost every seat in Scotland, with the Tories being completely wiped out and Labour reduced to just Ian Murray's seat once again.  In practice, that's unlikely to be how it unfolds - I suspect David Mundell and John Lamont might hold on for the Tories, along with maybe one or two others.  But the bulk of the seats the Tories took in the north-east two years ago would probably tumble.  That's remarkable, because those seats looked absolutely rock-solid until a few short weeks ago.

22 comments:

  1. Unionism has collapsed into mass multi-factional infighting.

    6 Peoples Front of the Union parties on the ballot now. I wouldn't be surprised if that number grows.

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    1. If the brexit party do win the eu elections in England, expect utter chaos to follow.

      Quite likely the straw that breaks the union's back, particularly if it looks like brexit are heading for Westminster next.

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    2. There you go, if Brexit win the EU elections (highly likely) declare UDI the day after. You heard it first here folks!

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    3. And when the BBC in the interests of "fairness" invite 4 unionists to oppose the 1 SNP voice they'll justify it by pointing to the English political picture

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    4. @Unknown

      I think you are getting a bit carried away there son, but the UKIP 2014 victory boosted Yes a good few % in 2014. With the average 48% Yes tomorrow, there's not lot need to break the union's back.

      UKIP/Brexit is England's SNP, just as Brexit is their indyref. The fact that one right and one left, one pro-Europe, one anti, is only serving to cut the UK in half.

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    5. @Scottish Skier
      Unionism is just growing a new head.

      Chances are this one may be more dangerous than the last one. It will be unstable, scared of "others", and free of any pretence of a social society + As No Deal-ers they will be desperate for money...

      Scotland beware: the enemy of your enemy is not your friend.

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  2. Legally if the Brexit party fight a GE on with no manifesto then the Parliament Act would never apply and the House of Lords could oppose anything they did regardless of the size of their majority.

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    1. Cuspidor GrangelyMay 19, 2019 at 9:02 PM

      That's interesting but the British just make up the rules as they go along. There's no constitutional tradition, just expedient inventions

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    2. Iain: You're mixing up the Parliament Act with the Salisbury Convention. The Parliament Act applies regardless of whether a policy was in the governing party's manifesto.

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  3. James: twitterati are saying tactical vote pro union in Scotland is lib Dem? Saying snp vote risks seats. I say it's SNP/ green/ then lib Dem?

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    1. I do hope so. Huge Remain vote if that happened.

      Tories are saying 'only a vote for them is a vote for the union', so it could end up 90%+ Yes on that logic!

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    2. There is definitely some movement to the Lib Dems going on.

      Problem is that if you are pro-EU and pro-UK, you'll need to pick if far right Farage wins England and is even on course for Westminster.

      A lib dem vote might help give them a seat in Scotland, even preventing Brexit grabbing one. However, that's all it will do. England is going for brexit and England will do what England wants. Scottish votes matter fuck all.

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  4. I'm not sure about John Lamont's security, despite his majority in 2017. Before this his constituency hadn't been Tory since the 1960s, and was the Liberal heartland of David Steel and Michael Moore. Calum Kerr won it in 2015 in a three-way contest with Lamont and Moore. In 2017 the Liberal vote collapsed, and appeared to shift en bloc to Lamont. I wonder how Border Liberals feel about what they signed up for? If they return to voting Liberal in the next election (or even decide that the SNP represent their values better these days) then Lamont's tabard could be on a shoogly peg again, especially if Calum Kerr stands for the SNP - he impressed a lot of folk outwith the SNP in his short stint as MP last time.

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    1. I wonder if the demographics haven't changed in the Borders since it was a Liberal heartland, meaning that the area now has a sizeable Conservative-supporting chunk of the population. These people might have no tradition of voting Liberal, although what you say about the Liberal voters us spot on.

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    2. Not sure Iain, maybe, but the 2017 election caught most folk on the hop. I got the impression a lot of candidates were left to fight for themselves as best they could and the SNP messaging was less than clear. The Liberals seemed to abandon everywhere to focus all their bucks on getting Christine Jardine elected (only they could explain why), and Lamont and the Ruth Davidson No More Referendums Party sent an absolute deluge of literature through everybody's door. Lamont's name also seems to come up whenever there are references to dodgy Tory financing. Funny that. Thursday might give an insight into current Borders loyalties.

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  5. Jock EU Barnier Boaby Sucking Grovelling PartyMay 20, 2019 at 10:38 AM

    Spoil the ballot paper.

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    1. Nigel WiddecombeMay 20, 2019 at 11:22 AM

      That's a great idea. So you let other people choose for you. Super fun!

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    2. I heard this is what Farage is advising all his voters to do!

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  6. https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/paramilitaries-call-on-voters-to-back-unionists-and-to-shun-alliance-1-8933883

    British Terrorists call on voters to back unionists – and to shun Alliance

    British terrorists have urged voters to come out for unionist candidates in Thursday’s European election – and to not even transfer to parties such as Alliance, claiming that to do so would be “counted as a vote against the Union”...

    Lovely.

    I see Plaid Cymru have overtaken Labour in Welsh polls.

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  7. Presumably Iran will be the media bogeyman by the time the next Westminster election comes around. So the Tories will be chucking taxpayer cash into Integrity Initiative to run stories in the Herald about cybernats being run by Iran. (After their usual "Jim Sillars and Alex Bell hate the SNP" propaganda bollocks.)

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  8. Nigel@11.22am. Strange comment to make as the British people voted to leave the EU and are ignored by the politicians who voted to give them the vote.

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    1. Cordelia, my poor, poor dear. You have everyone's sympathy and understanding. It must be awful.

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