Saturday, May 18, 2019

The annual Eurovision post

Well, actually there are usually several annual Eurovision posts - this is the first year since starting the blog in 2008 that I haven't posted predictions for the two semi-finals.  But don't worry, I wasn't boycotting Israel or anything like that, so there's no need for Fiona Robertson to launch a bigotry inquiry.  I just ran out of time.

I know some of you get mildly homicidal when I start writing about Eurovision, so to sweeten the pill this year I thought I might make a small departure from my usual prediction post, and instead offer you some betting tips.  Even if you're not interested in Eurovision itself, you might be interested in making a little money out of it.  Obviously what you do with this advice is entirely at your own risk - it's just some general speculation about where the value might possibly lie.

The Netherlands, oddly enough, are the red-hot favourites to win this year, and if they do, it'll be their first triumph since the quintessentially dreadful Ding-A-Dong way back in 1975 (a song that Edwyn Collins memorably turned into a Bond theme two decades later).  Over the last few years, strong favourites have tended to win at a canter, but if you go further back, the contest is littered with highly-fancied entries that crashed and burned.  The most recent example was 2011, when France were expected to win but finished a poor fifteenth, which allowed Azerbaijan to emerge from the pack.  In this case I'm fairly confident the Netherlands will finish close to the top of the leaderboard, because the song is likely to be the favourite of the juries.  But whether it wins outright will also depend on the public vote, and that's where one or two doubts creep in.  It's actually possible to bet on the outcome of the public vote alone, and I'd suggest that the eye-catching Australian entry and Russia are both quite generously priced on that front.  Russia are particularly tempting, partly because they're the kings of political voting, and partly because their singer Sergey Lazarev won the televote (but not the jury vote) three years ago.  And at the risk of fuelling David Leask's suspicions, it's not a bad song at all.

When I first heard the UK's song in February, I thought it was "our" best entry for years and years and years, and I still think that, but it clearly hasn't caught the imagination of the fans, and you can get odds of close to 500/1 against a UK win.  In spite of uninspiring staging, I believe the song is significantly underpriced, probably due to fatalism brought about by years of poor UK results.  Probably the most sensible bet would be the 25/1 on offer for the UK to merely finish in the top ten, which seems insanely generous.  (For the avoidance of doubt, I don't think the UK will make the top ten, but I do think there's a greater than 4% chance of that happening.  4% is the percentage chance implied by the odds.)

The catchy-but-appalling San Marino song is also a rank outsider to make the top ten, and that's a semi-tempting one because you can guarantee the public will be voting for it as a laugh.  But you'd assume it'll be hammered by the juries.  (There again, the juries ranked the Israeli novelty song as high as third last year, so anything is possible.)

There are a few other entries that are odds-against to make the top ten, but which might be a value bet - the Czech Republic song is very infectious, Serbia have followed the dramatic Balkan ballad template that proved so successful for them a few years back, and Cyprus have a song that is fairly similar to their runner-up from last year.

*  *  *

And for those of you who aren't interested in either Eurovision or Eurovision betting, here is YouGov's latest Scottish subsample for the European elections.  It's an unusually large subsample of more than 600 respondents, which makes it almost as good as a full-scale poll, because YouGov (unlike other firms) are believed to weight their Scottish subsamples correctly.

SNP 39%, Brexit Party 20%, Liberal Democrats 13%, Greens 10%, Conservatives 7%, Labour 6%, UKIP 2%, Change UK 1%

Seats projection: SNP 3, Brexit Party 1 or 2, Liberal Democrats 1, Greens 0 or 1

54 comments:

  1. Pleasant relief to read about Eurovision. I'm hoping for a San Marino win, just to see how they would handle the event next year, but wouldn't be surprised if Norway or Azerbaijan won.

    Sad that Brexit Party could take a seat. Dreadful they could take two.

    Colonel Tanktop and Bouncer must be pleased.

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  2. sometimes politic should trump entertainment, and I believe this is one of those times

    :(

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    1. On the contrary I think US politics has provided an awful lot of Trump entertainment.

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  3. Mibbe should be renamed Globalvision as it seems awbody and their dug can enter now. Except Scotland of course, but we have aspirations to get there PDQ.

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    1. Strange that Australia are still there. Reminds me of Australian relatives who come for a holiday then never leave.

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    2. Jimmy Shand an his baun stand a chance especially if the judging panel are gay boys.

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    3. Tiffanetta SparkleMay 19, 2019 at 10:34 PM

      Hi there, Cordelia. Great to see you back. So, you're calling yourself "Glesga2" these days. Good on you, girl.

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  4. You should be boycotting Zionvision this year you terrible excuse for a revolutionary JK! Bobby will not be pleased.

    Meanwhile I notice that vision of delight RD has a begging letter in the telegraph (London not Greenock) desperately trying to avoid total annihilation on Thursday/Sunday.

    The content is the usual horlicks but the most interesting aspect it the picture used at the top of the online article is her twatter avatar.
    Taken 8 years and 8 chins ago. Who are they trying to fool. She's showing more than her age now. Just a sad bloated old tub of lard. Eric Pickles in drag. Never trust an airbrushed politician.

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  5. I want Britain to win.

    Go Team GB!

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    Replies
    1. Sorry, Team GB&NI!

      Jeez, totally ignored NI like I was a proud unionist!

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    2. Its the UK in Eurovision, but you know that, you just wanted to make a some strange political dig...rather sad

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    3. I didn't know that, I don't watch/follow Eurovision. And I apologised for using the British unionist term 'TeamGB' as that excludes NI. UK of course covers it!

      I would love the UK to win though. Fingers crossed.

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    4. I would like to see the UK win it as well - but only so that they get to become the host nation next year, and we get to watch them celebrating everything that is great about Europe!

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    5. It would be even better if the UK wins it, then Scotland votes for independence.

      Who would host then? :-)

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    6. The UK would - the sovereign state of the United Kingdom would still exist - Scotland would just not be a part of it.

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    7. What would it be called though and what would the flag be?

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  6. 40 years ago Israel hosted it and won, if they did win again they might do what they did in 1980 refused to host or enter next year's competition. The Israel's song is not that bad, still hoping for a Turkey win, sorry that should be San Marino. It should do well in the televoting from countries where there is large Turkish ex-pat community.

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    1. I'm voting for Monaco this year. Their song is inspiring and more of a ballad than the others.

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  7. That will be difficult as Monaco haven't entered.

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    1. Oh. I wonder who that was that I liked.

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    2. Dustin the TurkeyMay 19, 2019 at 4:00 AM

      Rare to meet a low information voter on a politics blog...

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    3. Or a Saturday night raver, we gonna party and party and party....

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. Far right on 24% for Westminster

      @britainelects
      4m4 minutes ago
      More
      Westminster voting intention:

      LAB: 29% (+1)
      BREX: 24% (+3)
      CON: 22% (-)
      LDEM: 11% (-)
      CHUK: 3% (-1)
      GRN: 3% (-3)
      UKIP: 2% (-2)

      via @OpiniumResearch, 14 - 16 May
      Chgs. w/ 8 May

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    2. Natsi Nige and the Far-right-ragers on the march. Lets get out and vote and stick it to them.

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  9. Thanks for the update!! Not on in US thus year.

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    1. Its almost worth moving to the US for and risking having your kids massacred at school.

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  10. "Best for Britain" (Remain campaign group) have commissioned a big poll with YouGov. 9260 sample across GB, so the Scottish sample must be about 800.

    https://www.bestforbritain.org/vote2?postcode=eh7%205uj&region=Scotland

    SNP 38, Brexit 20, Green 11, Lab 10, Con 10, LD 7.

    Gives SNP 3 seats, Brexit, Green and Lab 1 each. Very tight for the last couple of seats between Green, Lab, Brexit 2nd seat, Con and SNP 4th seat.

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  11. I suppose some acts depend on fanciful stage sets, light shows, and backing dancers, to deflect from their woeful singing - and autotune helps as well!

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    1. Meldridge G MeldringthorneMay 19, 2019 at 12:50 AM

      I know I do.

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  12. Is it just me or are the Australia results not that surprising ? I know it goes against your awesome poll of polls thing, but 20 polls showing 51 to 49 make a 49 to 51 result well within error margin, especially considering that so many conservatives just lie about their intent .

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    1. Earth calling Security: Apprehend item called Bill from Boston. Could be dangerous. Unpredictable. Unstable.

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    2. Makes complete sense to me Bill, I found the Netherlands results surprising given Remain are 52-48 ahead in the polls and the quality of the Greece entry well within the margin of error I think.

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    3. Especially since there were so many Lib Dems in the sample who often lie about whether they're voting for Ireland or France.

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    4. Slovenia's performance casts doubt on likelihood of Brexit Party gaining a seat at next year's contest in Amsterdam.

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  13. UK entry last in the ESC for the 4th time in the history of the contest. I thought it would do well. Brexit dragged it down.

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    1. Poor UK - they're a bit of a laugh these days. Remember when they used to think they mattered?

      I wanted Slovenia to win but was rooting for Macedonia near the end.

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    2. I hope your not suggesting Marcia that some of the voting is down to political considerations rather than the quality of the singing.

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    3. Unlike you Jako the jocko coz you don't matter and your not a laugh.

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  14. UK (Scotland), Panelbase poll:

    European Election

    SNP-G/EFA: 38% (+9)
    BREX-EFDD: 16% (+16)
    LAB-S&D: 16% (-10)
    CON-ECR: 11% (-6)
    LDEM-ALDE: 10% (+3)
    GREENS-G/EFA: 4% (-4)
    ChUK-ALDE/EPP: 2% (+2)
    ...

    +/- vs. 2014 election

    Fieldwork: N/A
    Sample size: 1,021
    #EP2019 #Scotland https://t.co/23rza8uY1T

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    1. Anyone have a clue how that will look as for as MEPs?

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    2. Never mind the MEP's I think Bill has omitted the Australia results from the poll.

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    3. It would be SNP 3, Brexit Party 1, Labour 1, Conservatives 1.

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    4. 'Massively overwhelming people have spoken' share there for 100% Remain parties.

      Epic landslide when you add in 'advocating second EU ref / remain in full customs union + almost the single market' parties.

      Full British brexit parties crushed. Rejected by 73%. Suggests Leave lost a lot of support since their 38% in 2016. One of the better polls for them too.

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    5. I correct myself. Part of the 'Leave' support will be from Scottish indy supporters who want a Norway model. So 'Full British Brexit' support is more 18%.

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    6. Colonel R Davidson VCMay 19, 2019 at 12:01 PM

      J R Tomlin - I haven't got a clue about anything.

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  15. I am most definitely boycotting Israel so Fiona Robertson can investigate me in your stead and I will be quite willing to tell her where she can stick her investigation. It is called Freedom of speech and association.

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  16. Huge blow for Israel that Tomlin.

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  17. So that's what 6 unionist parties now? Talk about utter carnage under FPTP.

    And that's with Panelbase; the least Yes/SNP friendly pollster.

    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    3m3 minutes ago
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    An ACTUAL full Panelbase poll (dates tbc), Westminster poll (changes vs 24th of April);

    SNP - 38% (nc)
    Labour - 19% (-2)
    Conservative - 18% (-4)
    Lib Dem - 10% (+4)
    Brexit - 9% (+4)
    Green - 3% (+1)
    Change UK - 2% (-1)
    UKIP - 1% (-1)

    I'm not sure the union can survive the Conservative & Unionist party tearing itself apart into 4 factions (Con/Brex/UKIP/CUK).

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    1. Holyrood Const. SNP up on April. 21 point lead 12 years into government. Extraordinary.

      SNP - 41% (+1)
      Con - 20% (-1)
      Lab - 18% (-2)
      LD - 8% (+2)
      Brex - 7% (+2)
      Grn - 3% (nc)

      Seats:
      SNP - 63 (+3 / nc)
      Con - 24 (-7 / -7)
      Lab - 22 (-3 / -2)
      LD - 8 (+1 / +3)
      Grn - 6 (nc / nc)
      Brex - 6 (+6 / +6)

      SNP + green majority.

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    2. I hope we will still have Annie Wells, Jamie-Lee, Miles Briggs, Two Job Tompkins, the Invisible Wifie called Smith and Mr Carwash in Parliament for laughs.

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