Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Ruth Davidson's campaign pitch is just sooooo 2017

So I received my official Ruth Davidson's Conservatives Election Communication through the door this morning, and a few points leap out at me...



* They seem to have entirely given up on voters with a primarily Scottish national identity.  Note the prominent usage of the Union Jack and the total absence of the saltire.  They've travelled a long way since the likes of Michael Forsyth co-opted the saltire as part of the unionist brand in 1990s.  Now, doubtless their strategists would point out that Ruth Davidson has had greater electoral success than Michael Forsyth, but it does mean they're limiting themselves to a niche market - British identity is much weaker in Scotland than Scottish national identity.  It would be reasonable to suggest that this approach was far more compatible with Davidson's aim in 2016 of becoming the largest opposition party than it is with her current stated objective of becoming First Minister.

* They seem to have entirely given up on Remain voters.  How on earth do you win a majority in Scotland if you only want people who are BOTH self-identifying Brits AND Leave supporters (38% of the population in 2016 and now a touch lower)?  It's even harder now that the Brexit Party seems to have become overnight the natural home for passionate Leavers, which means that the Tories are effectively left chasing after the voters who do want Brexit but don't particularly prioritise it.

* They're testing the credulity of voters with a bizarre juxtaposition between the "no more divisive referendums!" message and their insistence that "the result of the divisive referendum we held ourselves only three years ago MUST be respected!!!!"

* I wouldn't actually rule out the possibility that lazily rerunning the 2017 anti-indyref message could gain some traction - but if it does, that could conceivably split the Brexit Party vote and help the SNP.  I'm not even joking.  If yesterday's YouGov subsample is right about the Scottish Tories only being on 6% of the vote for the Euro elections (a perfectly plausible figure given that the Tory vote across Britain is just 10%), they're well below the de facto threshold for winning a seat, and an extra 1% or 2% of votes for them will be wasted votes.

* If a vote for the Conservatives in this election is a vote to "tell Nicola Sturgeon - no more referendums", doesn't it logically follow that if the Tories are wiped out and the SNP gain a seat (as the YouGov subsample implies will happen), the public must want a referendum?

94 comments:

  1. The wind has been knocked out of Davidson. All the hardcore roasters who lent their vote to her will be jumping ship to to the Brexit Party. She'll be toast within a year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. She's a vacuous windbag with the charisma of a cabbage.

      Delete
    2. So are you. Nat si blowhard.

      Delete
  2. Won't it make people who are interested in having a referendum vote the way she doesn't want them to?

    ReplyDelete
  3. The Nat sis are no better than the rest when it comes to wasting public money the money being spent on this EU vote could alleviate the pressure oon food banks yet the Nat sis have proven yet again the poor are not a consideration.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There will be substantial satisfaction in seeing the Brit Nat sis wiped out. By the way, who was it who wasted two and a half years buggering up Brexit so that this election had to be called?

      Delete
    2. So just scrap all elections and give the money to the poor ? Interesting.

      Delete
    3. Hands-on ThomsonMay 15, 2019 at 1:31 PM

      I also am appalled that the "Nat sis" (fabulously witty spelling - very humorous) have taken it upon themselves to organise the EU election. It must very very costly for them to hold it in 28 countries, especially when all the Jockistan funding comes from the generous people of England.

      Delete
    4. The nat sis is the chief inbred idiot's natsi sister misus.

      Delete
    5. Is he married to his sister?

      Delete
  4. They've built Ruth up like the England team before a world cup.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Aye she let's everything in except the baws. 1966 ya jocks.

      Delete
    2. JoLa and StairheidMay 15, 2019 at 1:33 PM

      Poor Davidson. The Eddie The Eagle of Conservative career politicians.

      Delete
  5. It shows how big-headed Davidson remains.

    ReplyDelete
  6. SNP on 5% UK-wide in the latest Kantar poll.

    They don't do geographical cross breaks, but, for SNP got 3% in 2017, so this suggests at least mid 40's in terms of % in Scotland.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Westminster Average (%/seat pred)

    Lab: 30 (312)
    Con: 24.6 (235)
    SNP: 3.7 (55)
    LD: 12.8 (22)
    PC: .7 (4)
    BREX: 16.6 (3)
    Green 3% (1)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You put BREX near the bottom and SNP near the top. I see what your doing. Pathetic May si trick. One of Dr Gobbles one's.

      Delete
  8. UK productivity hitting new lows. With no new jobs being created, and instead just the same jobs being gig economy divided up between ever more ill, disabled etc people welfare sanctioned into them, it's not going to get any better.

    Crap productivity = low salaries, hence real pay still far less than it was 11 years ago. So much for Tory economic competence.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/05/14/productivity-slides-workers-put-longer-hours-little-show/

    Productivity fell again in the first quarter of the year as employment surged and workers put in longer hours but their output rose only modestly.

    This is a bad sign for future economic growth and for rising living standards, as productivity needs to climb for wages to outstrip prices in the long run.

    Productivity - as measured by output per hour worked - fell by 0.2pc in the first three months of the year compared with the same period of 2018.

    This is the third consecutive quarter of decline, the longest sustained period of falling productivity since 2012-13.


    The longest sustained fall since the 'double dip' contraction.

    Can the Tories get on with the day job please?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Wullie Wombat's LibDems are pushing the same 'No independence' line. I do not know what Scottish Labour are planning since their manifesto is in ..... WELSH!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I wis fair bealin at the Lib Dems broadcast tonight.
      The picture of the car spray painted with 'GO HOME' while attacking the SNP was worthy of Willie Goebels. They look so desperate. Pathetic.

      Delete
  10. Young James I note your tweet about Israel. Israel is in the thick of it fighting the mad Islamic fascists. Israel should be invited to join NATO. That will annoy some!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Russians are also fighting Islamic state, maybe they should join NATO.

      Delete
    2. Maybe they should join your club. Of nutters.

      Delete
    3. Whit aboot thae Hebrew, facist, anti-Semitic, grun pruchurrs ?

      Delete
  11. With poor Willie reduced to begging "make it stop" and now Ruth trying to pretend that the EU elections are not about Brexit, it is little surprise that traditional politics across the UK is unravelling.

    Ruth really is a one trick pony. She has nothing of substance to say about the EU or the way ahead from the mess her party has contrived to foist upon us.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The only substance the EU has is corruption. They cannot tell us how they waste taxpayers money. It is clear that Scottish Nat si politicians must have personal gain remaining in this corrupt Mafia organisation.

      Delete
  12. Aye, and if the Lib Dems hadnae propped up the Tories then the whole Brexit bourach would never have happened.
    Cameron bringing in EVEL sounded the end of the Union.
    The doos are fleein back tae their doocots.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A veto introduced as a tweak that allows the Speaker to exclude Scotland's MPs at a stage before the final vote on a bill.
      Given Westminster can intervene in those devolved issues if it wants it makes you wonder where Scotland's veto is.
      At least in the EU we'd have one.

      Delete
  13. They're using a seriouly old picture of her too...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Zuleika Kennedy-PryceMay 15, 2019 at 7:36 AM

      Has she really changed that much in 15 years?

      Delete
    2. She's looking like a hot piece. She's make me feel YAROOBA!!!

      Delete
  14. Nice to be visiting your blog again, it has been months for me. Well this article that i’ve been waited for so long. I need this article to complete my assignment in the college, and it has same topic with your article. Thanks, great share.
    Webdesign

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is the best comment in weeks

      Delete
    2. This is the best week in comments.

      Delete
    3. FL could apply to Ruth Davidson. Get it?

      Delete
  15. The SNP have far more than half the number of Westminster seats in Scotland than all other parties combined. It was almost inevitable that they'd lose a large portion of their gains. Under an FPTP system it's never clear what support is given a combination of circumstances can affect your willingness to vote either because you thing you're party is bound to win or to lose.

    Even though the SNP tried to downplay independence the Ruth Davidson Party ensured a vote for them was a vote for that. The SNP won that election.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glesga Tam now TamaraMay 14, 2019 at 11:42 PM

      I aoolaud youre cavaluer aiiroeh ro unctuation. Air!

      Delete
  16. I see Alabama has passed a bill banning abortion, making it almost as backward as the UK, where it is still illegal in 25% of states as a result of the UK government refusing to repeal.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sometimes you write rubbish then you descend intae pure piss.

      Delete
    2. JoLa and StairheidMay 15, 2019 at 11:00 PM

      Cordelia likes that.

      Delete
    3. Ma Cordelia does a good blowjob on the sterrheid coal bunker.

      Delete
  17. New Comres poll:
    Lab 27
    Con 20
    Brex 20
    LD 13
    CHUK 6
    UKIP 4
    SNP 3
    Grn 4

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Why is Green after SNP? Typical Kicking bias. Bladder squash merchants.

      Delete
  18. Looks like the last rites of Brexit will be administered start of June.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48275827

    Not a chnace in hell that the Withdrawal Bill will pass.

    With Parliament never going to accept a No deal and the EU never going to offer a deal that would make the Brexiters happy a second ref looks certain now, just a matter of when it happens.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think the Tories will be a bit reluctant to pass a bill for that. Look where actually trying to ensure brexit happens has got them, never mind trying to reverse it.

      But say they do, ensuring Farage crushes them in the next GE and we maybe get Corbyn in power after 70% vote against Labour...

      What happens if people in England vote leave again?

      Ultimately, there is no way out of this malaise that doesn't involve some sort of UK political and constitutional collapse. We are living through the final end of an empire and as a rule these things are always messy.

      Delete
    2. Of course brexit being reversed could readily give the UK it's first far right majority government. Under FPTP, 30% of the vote could do it with the right vote distribution.

      With half the English electorate wanting brexit, the votes are there to put a far right party in power. Of course it would pretend to be the people's friend until it got into power; only then would it quickly move to 'take back control', installing itself permanently, as is always the case.

      For me, much as I'd like to see brexit cancelled, I'm very worried about what would happen if it is.

      Delete
    3. Tories wont have much choice. Their Brexiters won’t vote leaving with a customs union, Labour will not vote for leaving without one. Lib Dem SNP etc won’t vote for any deal. There is just no form of Brexit that will pass. About the only thing there is a majority for is not having no deal. Second ref is the only card left on the table.

      Delete
    4. Ok, but I can't see how a second ref solves anything.

      Not if nearly half of England supports brexit, so will just vote for pro-brexit parties in the next GE whether they win or lose EUref2. Under FPTP, they'll likely win the GE. SNP+Greens are managing majorities under PR never mind FPTP.

      Only if the Leave vote starts to fall sharply and goes below say 30% will the whole thing start to die down.

      I just don't see that happening. That's like asking Scotland to roll back the last 70 years and become staunchly unionist again.

      This political malaise is just getting started. It's going to get a lot worse and go on for many, many years to come. If you are sick of brexit, well, get ready for another 20 years of it. It's that or vote for indy and have some normality! :-)

      Delete
    5. Oh, and Ruth is totally against another EU vote.

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48281678

      Mind you, unionists are about to crush her party in the coming EU elections while nats look on bemused.

      If the polls are right.

      How many unionist factions are there now?

      Tories, Brexiters, UKIP, Labour, Libs, CHUK, Peoples front of Unionism, Unionists People's Front...

      And once the splits start, they can only go on. If I were the scottish Tories I would break from the UK Tories as the latter are ruining Team Ruth's chances in the next Scots/UK GEs. Same for Scottish Labour; English Labour are handing votes to the SNP/Greens on a velvet cushion right now...

      Delete
    6. You need a hobby. Or tranquilizers. Or a bit of how's yer father.

      Delete
    7. To be honest i'm more worried about Labour getting in. They are on the news saying that they want to wipe millions off the stock market if they get in power. Because thats what will happen, investors will dump any stock that could be nationalised - water, power, trains. No one is going to wanting to be holding onto any stock that a Labour Goverment will take at lower than market value.

      Thats the problem with the far left, there are plaenty of ways to have a fairer priced energy supply for example but they go for the must destructive solution possible. Ironically its the people who they claim to represent who suffer the most. Low and middle earners don't to have the safety net that the richer do when there pension funds or market invested savings start falling.

      Delete
    8. Either a Tory or a Labour government is a disaster as far as I'm concerned.

      Tories = wages down in real terms for well over a decade. Total economic incompetence, with zero plan here (hence the impasse on UK future world trade). Appalling UK productivity. Useless with finances (oil cash all pished away without a penny to show for it, national debt skyrocketing). Disaster for health, policing etc (see England). Not remotely democratic / increasingly fascist, including starting mass deportations of people who are not white English (e.g. Windrush), and requiring my wife to apply for permission to stay in her own home of 20 years. Dear god, she's not even in England and they're at the door demanding she produce her papers.

      And the entire UK agrees with me; Tories collapsing in the polls.

      Labour = Dianne Abbot in senior cabinet. God help us all.

      I’d still prefer that though to Nigel Farage. I can’t believe 1/3 of England is planning to vote for the ‘far right AfD’ (and I’m not being dramatic, this is official BBC terminology).

      Delete
    9. Farage is polling at 28.8% average, he has managed to get another 1% than he got last time, thats rubbish and thats with the the conservative vote crashing by over 10%.

      In contrast Lib dems are up 7%, Greens are holding steady up. So the right wing pro Brexit vote is falling and the left wing remain parties are benefiting.

      Dispite all the hype Fararge could easily end up with less seats and a smaller vote share than 2014.

      Delete
    10. 29% support is almost sufficient for a far right UK government under FPTP. The EU elections will be a good barometer.

      With the Lib Dems on less than half of that, I won't hold out for another rampant austerity capitalist coalition quite yet.

      Delete
    11. Brexit party is polling no were near 29% though in Westminster polling.

      Delete
    12. But the support is there, and who is to say we won't see the same suddeny surge for Westminster as has happened for EU intention.

      ~1/3 of English people prepared to vote for the far right sends a chill down my spine.

      Delete
    13. You mean 1/3 of English and Welsh prepared to vote for the far right:
      European Parliament voting intention (Wales):

      BREX: 33% (+33)
      LAB: 18% (-10)
      PC: 16% (+1)
      LDEM: 10% (+6)
      GRN: 8% (+3)
      CON: 7% (-10)
      CHUK: 4% (+4)

      Delete
    14. No, I meant England.

      I'm not really that concerned about what the Welsh want as Scotland isn't in direct union (via treaty) with Wales (and its population is very wee, so has no real impact on things).

      Delete
    15. Love the way Scots are always angsty when Britain is referred to as England or Scotland and Scottish issues are ignored in favour of England and English matters, yet are more than happy to neglect to consider or omit Wales and the Welsh at every opportunity. Pot and kettle comes to mind.

      Delete
    16. I didn't omit Wales. I said 'England'.

      It's not possible to neglect/omit Wales when talking about England unless you consider Wales part of England.

      Delete
  19. https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2019/05/14/the-risk-of-fascism-in-the-uk-is-increasing-by-the-day/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+org%2FlWWh+%28Tax+Research+UK+2%29

    ReplyDelete
  20. This looks like bad news for Colonel Tanktop.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It looks like bad news for the gussetunchers.

      Delete
  21. So if you read the last line then Ruth is gambling all or nothing with this EU election a not needed election. Confusing sure is why would she give us our best chance?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Could we have that in English now?

      Delete
    2. Can we have that in English, says the inbred idiot who writes in mcjocko gibberish.

      Delete
  22. Westminster polling averages upto todays Ipos poll (vote share change on this time last month)

    Lab: 29 ( -6.2)
    Con: 22.8 (-5.8)
    BREX: 17.4 (+9.6)
    LD: 13.6 (+4.6)
    Green: 5 (+1.2)
    CHUK: 4 (-3.6)9.8
    UKIP:3.6 (-1.4)

    In terms of of seat predictions would be:

    LAB: 316
    Con: 229
    SNP: 55
    LD: 22
    Brex: 5
    Plaid C: 4
    Green: 1

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. just the 55 for the SNP....Tories will claim victory

      Delete
  23. Labour People's front of the Union vs the Unionist Labour People's front.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-48274107

    Labour's Ian Murray and Neil Findlay in complaints row

    A row has broken out at the top of the Labour party in Scotland with complaints being lodged against two senior figures.

    BBC Scotland understands MP Ian Murray has accused Neil Findlay MSP of "bullying and harassment".

    But it has emerged that a separate complaint has also been made against Mr Murray.

    The row came after a series of WhatsApp messages were leaked to The Herald newspaper.

    In them, Mr Murray alleged the party in Scotland was "full of thugs and incompetents".


    I see the potential for Labour splitting 3 ways. Brexit British, EU British and indy Scottish.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think the indy Scottish faction has mostly left already tbh

      Delete
    2. I think you must be right. Labour only have British nationalists nowadays, but they'll probably split into proEU and antiEU. There's probably also a clutch of vacants who aren't sure what EU is and hanker after the glory days of Willie Ross.

      Delete
  24. Theresa May at -49% personal approval rating just ahead of Jeremy Corbyn at -50%. Have they ever been so low for the leaders of the two major parties.

    ReplyDelete
  25. The end of the UK draws ever closer. Really not far away at all now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48299424

    Boris Johnson confirms bid for Tory leadership

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We hiv tae rally roun Boris tae get oot the EU Mafia fascist would be State. The EU will collapse so better now. Unfortunately the gin and wine swiggers will get enormous pensions but it is our fault for Swally in their con trick. The Scottish Nat si corrupt mob want tae keep the Swally

      Delete
    2. In the Queen's English please rather than primitive jocko babbling. Natsi Nige and the Far-right-ragers much better bet for you than the gin and wine swigging toff that is Boris. You'll all fail against Michelle's Barny army. USE

      Delete
    3. Here here, madam. Noble sentiments.

      Delete
  26. Skier do you believe your own shoite?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Jocular SlantMay 17, 2019 at 5:42 AM

      You are Scottish skier's plaything. He owns you and you are his chattel. He says "Wiggle it" and you shake your booty.

      Delete
    2. Nah he has a Frog Bint.

      Delete
    3. GWC is in a same sex marriage with her Remain voting wife. At least, according to Cordelia who is another of GWC's noms de plume.

      Delete
  27. Tories on single figures and Lib Dems ahead of Labour in new Yougov UK EU poll. Times they are achanging

    ReplyDelete
  28. James,

    This seems crazy to me. How 'founded' do you think these polls are?

    ReplyDelete
  29. Lab official pulled plug on talks with Conservatives

    ReplyDelete
  30. None of the parties have an EU election manifesto that says anything other than whether they wish to ignore the EU referendum,or not. Mind you, the lack of information on what they intend to do in the EU parliament isn't different to prior EU elections.

    Remember, UKIP won the last EU election in the UK with a manifesto saying their MEPs wouldn't bother to turn up, not that that seems to make any difference to the EU parliament.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Ruth on 7% of the vote in the latest Yougov UK poll (with a biggish Scotland subsample).

    So much for her being the next Queen of Scots.

    ReplyDelete
  32. And so much for Corbyn being the next King of the Jews.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. According to the same poll, Wullie Rennie has more chance of being FM than Ruth.

      Delete
    2. According to the same poll, Vera Duckworth has more chance of being FM than Colonel Tanktop.

      Delete
  33. If Boris becomes leader, I give the UK six months.

    It's funny to look back and, in retrospect, see how competent and statesmanlike Cameron was. By comparison with May.

    Soon, we will be looking back and admiring how competent and stateswomanlike May was, by comparison with our new UK PM.

    UK PMs are on the same trajectory as Scottish Labour party leaders have been in recent times. There is zero hope of any recovery. Not until absolute rock bottom has been reached and all that's left of the UK is a smoldering ruin.

    ReplyDelete