Saturday, March 16, 2019

Survation poll shows Yes vote holding up impressively

The eagle-eyed David Halliday pointed out to me earlier today that independence figures can be found in the datasets of the new Survation poll, which seems to have been a composite poll commissioned by three very different clients - the Daily Mail, the Scottish Green Party and the ever-hapless Scotland in Union.  It's impossible to know what the headline independence figures would be (or perhaps what they will be if they're ever published), because the numbers in the datasets are not weighted by likelihood to vote.  But for what it's worth, the figures weighted politically and by demographics - but not by likelihood to vote - appear to put Yes at 45.2% and No at 54.8%.  That's basically the same as the previous Survation poll way back in the autumn.

I know the 'delay' lobby within the SNP may look at those figures and say "ooooh, there's no big breakthrough, this means we have to wait for another 64,000 years and hope that something turns up".  But the reality is that if you're not even campaigning on independence, and if you're letting your opponents make all the running on the issue, then probably the best you can really expect is that your own vote will hold up.  And the Yes vote is holding up impressively.  If we want to kick on from there, we'll have to use the indyref mandate and actually get on with the campaign.

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It's self-indulgent stats time, folks.  Based on recent trends this will probably be an accolade for one day only, but I may as well shout about it while it lasts.  As of this moment, and for the first time ever that I'm aware of, Traffic Estimate is showing that Scot Goes Pop has moved up to third place in the ranking of most-read Scottish alternative media sites over the last 30 days, slightly ahead of both CommonSpace and Bella Caledonia.

1) Craig Murray: 237,900 unique readers
2) Wings Over Scotland: 178,900 unique readers
3) Scot Goes Pop: 70,600 unique readers
4) Bella Caledonia: 70,200 unique readers
5) CommonSpace: 70,100 unique readers
6) Talking Up Scotland: 60,900 unique readers
7) Wee Ginger Dug: 59,900 unique readers
8) The Ferret: 37,900 unique readers

21 comments:

  1. No slight intended to Craig Murray (whom I admire and follow) but I suspect any comparison with him his site is deceptive. He has a deservedly worldwide following that has to do with politics beyond Scotland. Your site is the only one that gives a regular analysis of polling and that is incredibly valuable.

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  2. Are you sure those figures are not reflecting the weighting I don’t see any xbreak for referendum voting intention only for past vote

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    1. To the best of my knowledge, they're not weighted by likelihood to vote. The reason I'm saying that is the equivalent figures for Westminster voting intention differ slightly from the headline numbers, and the only reason for that seems to be the lack of weighting by likelihood to vote.

      There definitely are referendum voting intention figures, by the way. David found them in the Scotland in Union datasets, and I doublechecked.

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  3. If the Yes vote doesn't increase once brexit finally actually happens, which it will, and starts biting - Food prices, flights, holidays etc then it's never going to happen. For what it's worth, I think it will though.

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    1. Glad I am getting a rise in my state pension and another tax cut. Since the Tories got in I am about a hunner quid a month better aff. I even gave £6 this tax year towards the EU gravy train.

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    2. "Life under our Tory overlords is wonderful! They've increased my pittance! I'm better off so to hell with the rest of you!
      Waaaaah!"

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    3. It may be a pittance tae you Nat si boy but it is a few bevvies tae me. Hic.

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    4. "How dare you attack my pittance from my Tory masters as being a pittance! It pays for my Toilet Duck! You're all Nazis and I hate you!
      Waaaaah!"

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  4. Why do pollsters weight incorrectly weight to (large scale tactical) Westminster past vote and, rather than the most recent constitutional referendum, the one previous to that which was half a decade ago?

    They all concluded ahead of 2014 that weighting to Westminster intention is useless in Scotland, stopped doing it for that reason, but are now doing it again. The very large fall in turnout (mainly SNP/Green/Yes voters not bothering with the first full English EVEL election) in 2017 only compounds the problem.

    Way too many people consistently claim to have voted Yes in 2014. This is a major cross-poll problem. This happens even when the sample is very unionist VI leaning. This suggests considerable 'false' recall, or more likely, simply people saying what they deep down supported, rather than what they actually voted on the day in a fluster, which can result from regret. After all, polling does suggest Yes went ahead, then a section panicked and voted No. Those that chickened out are the ones most likely to false recall, or rather white lie to pollsters. It's common that people think this will help their cause (Yes here) in polls, when it's the opposite case.

    Anyway, it's difficult to judge the full extent of the problem, but it does result in pretty much universal Yes and SNP down-weighting across all the pollsters. So, even with this, when the least yes friendly pollsters (panelbase) are showing Yes leads with brexit, I can understand why 'Now is not the time' for unionists.

    It would be very interesting to see a poll weighted by 2016 PR Holyrood and e.g. the EUref by contrast. These results are normally pretty consistent in with what happened following simply demographic weighting, unlike Iref and 2017 recall.

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  5. Off the topic slightly, but JK has being very unfair to the spanish government.

    It is quite clear that the responsibility for all of the violence around the Catalon referendum rests with the Catalans themselves. They insisted that everybody vote in person. If they had only allowed postal voting and for those votes to be counted in madrid then there would have been no need for the state police to get involved as there would have been a massive win for no.

    Has that simpering cretin in Bute House ruled out postal votes for the next referendum (if it ever happens) or is she so under the control of leslie evans that she will do whatever the english establishment wants?

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  6. Young James you Nat sis should be romping home moreso with this brexit shenanigans that are going on. So why not? Most Scots voted to remain in the EU gravy train where most Scots do not benefit! Any idea why the Scots voted to remain in a corrupt threatening organisation?

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    1. "You're all Nazis! How dare you vote for something my masters ordered me to despise? Obey the corrupt threatening organisation that is Westminster! I hate you all!
      Waaaaaah!"

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    2. There's many a slipper slapped that slapper. Hahahaha hahaha. Yes! Ve haf no panananax.

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    3. Wullie the Ootside PlastererMarch 17, 2019 at 11:09 PM

      I can do some ootside rendering for you.

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    4. I heard you were an inside renderer.

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    5. What Cordelia does in its own time is its own business, no matter how humiliating and degrading that might be. The humiliation must be endured for the sake of the Precioussss.

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    6. "You're all Nazis! I hate you all too much to make sense! STOP LAUGHING AT ME!
      Waaaaaah!"

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  7. Damn, I've fallen behind BC and CS! That's it. I'm finished.

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