Thursday, March 7, 2019

Panelbase poll leaves Leonard looking like a lost cause

Apologies for not being all over the latest Wings Over Scotland / Panelbase poll - I'm a bit under the weather today.  But I'll post the numbers and hopefully do some analysis later.

Scottish voting intentions for Westminster:

SNP 37% (n/c)
Conservatives 27% (+1)
Labour 22% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 7% (+1)
Independent Group 2% (n/a)
Greens 2% (n/c)
UKIP 2% (n/c)

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (constituency ballot):

SNP 41% (n/c)
Conservatives 27% (+2)
Labour 19% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 8% (+2)
Greens 3% (n/c)
UKIP 2% (+1)

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (regional list ballot):

SNP 36% (-2)
Conservatives 26% (n/c)
Labour 19% (-3)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)
Greens 6% (n/c)
UKIP 3% (+2)


I don't think we should be too concerned that the SNP appear to still be stuck on the 37% they achieved at the 2017 Westminster general election, because that's looking increasingly like a 'house effect' of Panelbase's methodology.  They've consistently shown the SNP at around 36-38%, while other firms have often put the number a bit higher.  Even on 37%, the SNP would be gaining seats, because there has been a 1% overall swing from Tory to SNP since the election, and a 2.5% swing from Labour to SNP.  22% is Labour's lowest Westminster share in any Panelbase poll since June 2017, and indeed in all but one poll from any firm.  The slump is likely to be largely caused by the fallout from the Independent Group breakaway, and of course has been mirrored in GB-wide polls.

45 comments:

  1. Get well soon.
    Is it just me or do "Scottish" Labour keep on making dramatic policy promises but never cost them? Sort of makes them look like stupid fantasists, really.

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    1. Where is your evidence that Scottish Labour do not cost things. The Nat sis are good at costing things. They pay for middle and upper class children to pass their time at university while the working class, walk to food banks.

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    2. It's the incoherence of Cordelia's drunken ravings that makes me laugh.

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    3. Don't be fooled by the Groundskeeper Willie Clown and his say eeyoo Jimmy mcjocko gibberish, he's nothing but a natsi nutjob.

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    4. Yeah Wham. I look at the spoons. Spoons in the cubbard. We know!!

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  2. Do you have the data sets?

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    1. Glesga Mary far the GreenMarch 8, 2019 at 7:14 AM

      Still trying to ignore me. I'm here and I'm the voice of Britain. Were 8n charge.

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    2. State of this and its unending neediness.

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    3. Your jealous. Ha ha. State of you lot. Weres your Scottish navy army and air force. Weres your Scottish commonwealth. Jock people joke country. Float off sweat mongers

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  3. Owen Jones was on Question Time again! The BBC are good at bringing on a pretend Socialist. Owen and Billy Mitchell would get on well at a ludge meeting. Owen providing the buffet.

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    1. Cordelia there, sharing more of its bizarre unrequited love for Flute Band Boy.
      I hope it didn't hurt itself on the way to the sobbing cupboard.

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  4. Good to see the BBC + papers increasingly making it clear that the UK isn't a democracy, but an English fascist state. A 'UKSSR'. Quite the contrast to the EU, where you can leave freely; no refusal of Section 30's there!

    Anyway, it seems the 2014 No vote is now no longer valid.

    It only represents the will of the people as long as it can be freely changed by them. That, it appears, is not the case.

    No Section 30 and the 2014 55% No is invalidated under rule No. 1 of democracy; no electorate is bound by the choice of the previous one. Voters must be able to undo previous votes or they no longer stand.

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    1. Incidentally, as I was saying on the previous blog article, it is vital that Section 30 be refused with as much fanfare as possible. We have to let this run until every single person in Scotland is aware of it and understands that it's for real.

      Only then can we swiftly move in to a referendum without a Section 30. That is the way to a huge Yes vote.

      Ideally this would happen post-brexit so the EU/EEA can openly offer membership / the route to that upon a Yes. If we have a transition period so stay in the single market throughout, then uber bonus.

      The best chance for unionists is a Section 30 immediately and an iref before a delayed exit. However, it seems they're too stupid to understand this. Cameron was British enough to appreciate that the only way he could keep Scotland was to show people it was their free choice ultimately.

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    2. If your only method of preventing Scottish indy is to try and stop and iref from happening by overruling the result of a democratic election, then you have already lost. It's over. You've broken the union and now you are smashing what's left of it.

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    3. Again the only Government who is saying that they won't use their powers to hold a referendum is the Scottish one. the FM was very clear that she will not let the Scottish Government decide when a ref should be held. If your not going to use the powers that you are given you have no cause to complain.

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    4. LOL, sorry, but that's nothing to do with the English government's position, which is what the people of Scotland are watching and basing their support for indy on. It's the strongest reason of all to vote for independence; to continue to live in a free democracy.

      If I was planning a non-Section 30 iref, I absolutely wouldn't announce that at all, especially the date. Only a prize idiot would do that. In the meantime, I would milk May et al. telling the jocks they're slaves to the English blood and soil motherland for every one of that epic pile of votes it will generate. Add in Brexit day and the EU/EEA then announcing 'Now the UK isn't a member, come and join us Scotland', and well... that will be that. Bye bye union.

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    5. "It's the strongest reason of all to vote for independence; to continue to live in a free democracy."

      'Scots should govern themselves' was the No. 1 reason people gave for their Yes vote in 2014 by a country mile. Obviously.

      A Section 30 refusal means Scots are not making their own decisions at all as part of the UK; England is in its eyes.

      The leave vote in Scotland would have been huge if the EU had refused the UK a section 30. I would have campaigned for leave.

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    6. 'Scots should govern themselves'. Yup as my point the Sot Gov does not want to govern for a ref by using the powers it has. Can blame 'England' as much as you like. The Scot Gov could of held a ref at any point since Brexit and has chosen not to, leading to Scotland leaving the EU with the rest of the UK.

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    7. I'm amazed that you are party to Scottish government senior cabinet strategy / decisions. If only us mortals has such insider knowledge.

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    8. I'm not blaming England; I've enjoying watching the English government trash the union. I cannot honestly believe my luck. Refusing a Section 30 means the SNP were right, about everything. They were right the union isn't one of equals. They were right that it's really just a greater England. They were right at unionist parties are quislings (if these don't demand a Section 30 in response to the Scottish parliament request)... Right. About. Absolutely. Everything.

      In the eyes of the electorate.

      This is truly gold dust.

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    9. skier, is it an EU Scottish democracy you want to live in or a Scottish one?

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    10. I'd like to live in a Scottish democracy where Scots decide whether they want to be in the EU/EEA/oot, rather than the neighbours deciding this. You know, like normal countries. I want normality, just like the citizens of regular countries have.

      I've lost count of the times I've said to you I'd be ok with being outside the EU and I'm a big fan of Norway. Free movement is what's most important to me.

      But you just ignore facts like this.

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    11. There is a bit of a problem with your analysis Scottish Skier. The UK government ignored a section 30 request 2 years ago and was rewarded for it in the election. As long as half the country supports them and are in positions of wealth, power and influence, this is a valid route for the UK government to go down.

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    12. skier being outside the EU means no free movement. You want free movement but it does not bother you if we leave the EU!

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  5. This has made me a wee bit happier.The steady realisation from unionists that its better to control your own country independence is the normal way.

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  6. I'm amazed that you are party to Scottish government senior cabinet strategy / decisions. If only us mortals has such insider knowledge.

    I'm going by the comments made by the FM. I'm going by the fact that no Section media has actually be sought from the UK Goverment despite as things stand Scotland leaving the EU with no deal. I'm going on the fact that no announcment regarding asking for a section 30 order, let alone requesting one will be made until the end of April a month after Scotland leaves the EU with no deal as thing stand. I'm going on the fact that the Scotish Goverment despite its opposition to Brexit have made no attempt to stop this happening by either asking for a section 30 order to the UK Government or holding a no section 30 ref.

    Despite all the noise from the Scot Gov, they have made no attempt to stop Scotland leave the EU and according to your theory there plan is to let Scotland leave the UK. This is not what was promised EU nationals, hence even the pro Independence ones are leaving:
    https://www.arcofprosperity.org/launching-my-own-lifeboat-scotland-wont-escape-soon-enough/

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  7. A section 30 is really, really important right up to the 29th. Then it matter a whole lot less. It might actually matter jack shit. It will depend on whether the EU/EEA would like Scotland as a member. If they want that, then they won't give a crap about a Section 30.

    At the same time, the UK should still be in the single market (transition period). Unless it wants to utterly beggar itself. It will finally be able to negotiate new trade deals with other countries directly, just as the brexiters wanted. However, that works both ways and the EU/EEA can openly court Scotland.

    A whole lot changes on the 29th.

    If I was the SNP, I'd absolutely wait for that. I'd also milk England refusing a Section 30 for all those hundreds of thousands of votes it should create. Proves the SNP were right all along.

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    1. I really really hope you are on the money here. But all my hope doesn’t fill the growing empty feeling inside, caused not just by Westminster’s utter dereliction of duty, but also by our own substantial ‘acceptance’ of it all.

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  8. Its hasn't refused hasn't been asked (this Government anyhow). Why would the EU court Scotland for. Scotland has nothing that the EU could not get if Scotland was out of the EU Indy or otherwise.

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    1. Och lol. Aye, the EU/EEA wants Malta...Estonia...the Ukraine...

      Ireland...Sweden...Iceland...

      It's happy to have all of Europe. In fact according to brexiters it's eating up countries like there's no tomorrow. Relentlessly expanding and absorbing little nations into the EUSSR collective.

      But not the stupid dumbass jocks. No, not the jocks. It want's all of Europe except the thicko jocks. They have to throw themselves on the mercy of the English (who have absolutely no reason to want Scotland either, but are just an amazingly charitable people).

      Dear god, iref#2 will be a walkover.

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    2. No you said 'court' that means actively seek Scotland to join. Which it has no need to, if Scotland wants to join then fair enough, as long as it meets the criteria i doubt anyone would block it. But its not going to court Scotland it has no need. The EU does not need Scotland, Scotland needs the EU.

      This can be seen in the negotiations so far. No EU country has given a crap if Scotland leaves with the UK even though it voted to remain. Unlike NI and Gibralta of course.

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    3. skier, it is not beyond nations to have mutual trading arrangements with each other and retain individual sovereignty. If the EU Parliament and Commission disappeared tomorrow life would go on.

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    4. That applies to the Union and Westminster as well

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  9. Plus. If they all went we'd know about it only because there would be nothing about it on the radio. That's it

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  10. Mhairi stands in the Commons to speak for a benefit claimer and knowing her Nat si Party has said it will meet any difficulty that Scots face with benefits. At least Mhairi is wearing the same pin striped suit since she entered her meal ticket.

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    1. And poker Alice there looking like like a concentration camp guard. Bloody disgrace. Nat si us right. They'd have us all gassed.

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    2. Cordelia the Britnazi and its latest tantrum, everyone. "Everyone's a Nazi except me and my ultra-right-wing poster boys! Waaaah!"

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  11. .... it's hardly even worth reading the comments section of James's Blog due to the Trolls that infest it ... aye, you GWC (in all your incarnations) ... sad individual who enjoys the "Nat si" throw down ... patently democracy is an Alien concept to you ... I can accept discussion & argument from pro-Union posters when the post is reasoned and factual ... but the rabid bile spewed out by Neanderthals merely trying trying to exact a response, is tedious ... try "Game of Thrones" and spare us your monotonous, moronic wittering's ... much obliged.

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    1. The Neanderthal was an advanced creature unlike the knuckle dragging English hating Scottish Nat si racist bigots.

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    2. .... unlike yourself then.

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    3. Hamish Plum McDuffMarch 10, 2019 at 6:25 PM

      The English have been dragging us Scots down for centuries including people living in Scotland who are not Scottish. We hate the English and their children and their children's children. The English are dragging us out of the EU and leaving us no one to grovel to except them.

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    4. "Why is nobody convinced by my pisspoor impersonation of an ethnic nationalist? Waaaah!"

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    5. Duff McPlum son of Hamish McDuffMarch 11, 2019 at 9:30 PM

      You need to have a personal personality to impersonate. You are a school gray bus window licker.

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    6. "Stop laughing at me! Take me seriously when I scream childish insults at you!
      Waaaaaah!"

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