Monday, February 11, 2019

Nicola Sturgeon's 3-5 year timescale points to an independence referendum in the near future

One of the frustrating things about recent months has been the SNP leadership increasingly taking the view that the 'process' aspect of how Scottish independence will come about is none of the business of the ordinary people of this country, and that we should occupy our minds with other matters instead.  That attitude is of course completely unrealistic and has left Kremlinology as our only recourse if we want to know what is happening, as most of us do.  There have been alarming indications from the likes of Andrew Wilson, who has posed as the defender of Nicola Sturgeon against largely fictional "attacks" on her for allegedly deciding to delay the calling of an independence referendum.  That has the feel of a mind game, but what is the nature of the game?  Is Mr Wilson an outrider for the leadership, trying to soften us up for an impending decision to let the mandate for a pre-2021 referendum expire?  Or is the mind game directed at the leadership, trying to coax Nicola Sturgeon into believing that a decision to delay is somehow inevitable and she should simply confirm it?

Ms Sturgeon's comments in the US would tend towards the latter theory, because they're not really consistent with plans for an indefinite delay.  She was asked whether Scotland would be applying for EU membership as an independent country within three to five years, and she said she thought it would.  As we all know, there would inevitably be a gap of at least two years or so between Scotland voting for independence and actually getting it, so that leaves only three possibilities: a) the mandate for a pre-2021 referendum will be honoured, b) the referendum will be delayed until beyond the 2021 election but with an intention to hold it on an extremely tight timetable immediately after that election, or c) a forthcoming election will be used to double as an independence referendum.

Any of those options would be preferable to the highly inappropriate "ca' canny" mood music of recent weeks (haven't you noticed we're facing a national crisis right now, guys?), so let's hope Ms Sturgeon's words foreshadow some positive action in the weeks to come.  I'm coming round to the idea that we may need a snap Westminster general election to save the SNP from its own caution, though - the leadership may need seat gains and the feeling of being on the front foot before they're quite ready to take a risk.  And calling a referendum would always be a risk - starting with Yes at 60% or whatever would be an entirely illusory comfort blanket.  In a referendum campaign you can lose or gain a third of your votes in the blink of an eye.

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To confirm that the SNP would have a reasonable chance of seat gains in an early general election, YouGov have produced new figures from their seats forecast model, which predicted the last election more accurately than conventional polling.  The central forecast for the SNP is 39 seats (up 4 on the current position), with the likelihood being that they would fall somewhere between 35 and 43.  There are five Labour seats listed as having a 50% or greater chance of falling to the SNP - Rutherglen & Hamilton West, Glasgow North-East (thoroughly deserved, Mr Sweeney), Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Midlothian, and Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill.

I can't remember this happening during the 2017 election, but a projection for the Scottish popular vote has also been provided -

SNP 40% (+3)
Conservatives 28% (-1)
Labour 20% (-7)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)

That appears to represent a substantial adjustment on the raw polling numbers, which put the SNP on a massive 48% of the vote.  Even on the adjusted figures, though, there is a clear swing to the SNP from the Tories as well as from Labour, which makes it a tad surprising that no Tory seats are forecast to fall to the SNP.  On a uniform swing, Stirling ought to switch hands extremely easily.

51 comments:

  1. I found the comments worrying in that it sounded a bit like wait and see and a decision will be made sometime in the next three to five years. Not soon enough. We need to go for a referendum soon or cracks will occur within the movement. I lend my vote to the SNP as I am sure others do solely for the purpose of getting independence but if it looks like the party is starting to get 'over tactical' then support might drift to other parties which are driving other important agendas.

    The UK government is a disaster with a Prime Minister who looks incompetent and at times unhinged. Many in England looked to the Labour Party for some other dimension in which to invest their vote but Corbyn's move to the left has evaporated and he has turned out to be a two dimensional socialist - a straw man, who when it comes to the bit cannot deliver and, to be fair, finds his own group isolated with no-one standing behind him, unless, that is, someone with a knife. The English have had it. They need a revolution. Marx was right, but it will never happen. I despair for them.

    In Scotland, like the other devolved administrations around the nations of the United Kingdom, we have a local dynamic that flavours our discourse. The failure of Scottish Labour in recent years is that they have neglected that discourse. Scottish Labour offers nothing. They have forgotten what dreams are for - they were the party of dreams, dreams of a better life, dreams of equality and they pushed it. They pushed for the aspirations of their electorate - they wanted better, better for everyone. Better. Now, they peddle the same carboard crap of the national Labour Party. The have lost their connection with the people, and, when you lose your people someone else will come along and offer them something, something different. The neglect of Labour for its voters led to UKIP in the south but in Scotland thankfully, the SNP had already been offering a dream that as Labour became more irrelevant, captured the hopes of increasing numbers of people. While England created the 'hostile environment' that paved the way for Brexit, Scotland offered the freedom of independence where our future could be decided by parties that reflected a more localised ideology dealing with real issues not parliamentary group identities.

    New dreams and ideals also became mainstreamed. The Green parties have yet to become accepted as a political force across England but in Scotland they are now part of the political scene and again offer something people can identify with and aspire to. Scottish Labour still seems locked in an 'anti-zone' just hating the SNP for the sake of it adopting a football top mentality to their political argument. Almost no-one believes in them any more.

    So, in a United Kingdom which is just about to career off a cliff without a parachute, what can Scotland do to offer a way out? Is this a chance for Scottish Labour to grow out of the quagmire of its recent demise and reach up to capture the moment and offer a new dream for Scotland? I hope so, but I think I will be disappointed. Again.

    Similarly, if the SNP fail to offer a way to independence in the near future then they too will have forgotten what dreams are for and like Scottish Labour will lose touch with the people who have so far invested their vote in them. I hope I am wrong on this, but I think I will be disappointed. Again.

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  2. We Unionists are awaiting eagerly for you fascist English haters and Islamic fascist supporters to make yer move. We know you support Sinn Fein IRA. We will exploit everything you seek to hide including handing our Nation over to the EU. Go for it fascists.

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    1. Is this a toilet duck inspired comment or someone taking the mickey out of Cordelia. I can no longer tell the two apart.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  3. Many of us 'yessers' are finding the going tough tbh as BRexit follows its tortuous path to wherever it ends!

    Independence is almost upon us, that much I feel, but how, when etc. That's the confusing part.

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    1. Nigel Holyrood Fortisque PlantagenetFebruary 12, 2019 at 1:44 AM

      Defeat is upon you again Morag. We Unionists will not be treated as second hand citizens by you English hating fanatics.

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    2. Lady Blythe SilverspooneFebruary 12, 2019 at 5:09 AM

      And the Union will soon have a new weapon to defeat the separatists. J K Rowling and other concerned high net worth individuals are setting up the Celebrity Dinner Party to represent the concerns and values of Upper Middle England. At last! Just as the Conservatives have become frightfully vulgar.

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    3. Just think how much tougher it is for No-Remainers. We at least have a lifeboat. They are fecked.

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  4. Socialism Dead and Gone in ScotlandFebruary 12, 2019 at 2:14 AM

    Holyrood Gov silent over the USA, EU and UK attempt to place a USA puppet in power in Venezuela. Seems the slaughter of the working classes in Chile Post 11 September 1973 has been forgotten.

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    1. Move the bucket HildaFebruary 12, 2019 at 11:39 PM

      Moving forward to the wrong side of things. That's it for the time being. But now I have been listening to nat sis and there pals speaking through a lot of holes in there arsed. Scummy jocks.

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    2. Cordelia there, indulging in a bit of racism to curry favour with its imperial masters.

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  5. The voices in Cordelia's headFebruary 12, 2019 at 2:53 AM

    Sometimes we like to talk to ourselves out loud too

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    1. Willie the Emphysema KidFebruary 12, 2019 at 4:49 AM

      I loved it when we used to go to the seaside. Mummy and Daddy brought the tennis rackets and we played merrily. Mummy had pemmican sandwiches which cook made and a bottle of pop for Jill and I. After catching some darkie children we sat round the campfire torturing them and singing "Winston! There's a bigger in the woodpile". The hols always ended too soon then it was back to Mallory Hall and another term fagging for Johnson and Mogg Minor. Happy British days. The memories of an imperial chap.

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  6. I don't see Ross Thomson holding onto Aberdeen South.

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    1. depends if it has a nice bum (allegedly)...

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  7. Bill A I agree with that, I'd be confident of Tory losses in Stirling and Aberdeen South. Thomson apparently "holds on" to a lot of things, but his seat I don't recon will be one.

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  8. Corybn's 'morris dancing red Tories' will fall a lot lower than 20% if he signs off May's brexit deal to force Scotland out of the EU while stripping holyrood of powers (which the deal / bill does).

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    1. Of course they'll fall even further if they allow a hard brexit to happen.

      After all, they voted to start the brexit process, they've had plenty of time to prevent a hard brexit, and May doesn't even have a majority.

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  9. #Strong&stableintheUK #BetterTogether

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-may/british-cabinet-ministers-believe-pm-may-preparing-to-resign-the-sun-idUKKCN1Q02HM

    British cabinet ministers believe PM May preparing to resign - The Sun

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  10. Oh aye, remember, if we get a 'Labour Brexit', the UK can't sign any new trade deals. Not any which touch on devolved areas (which is kinda all of them) anyway...

    Not unless Corybn's 'Red Tories' power grab devolved Scottish powers just like the Blue Tories are planning / doing, overulling the 1997 74% Yes.

    It's that or give Holyrood/Cardiff (not Stormont, as it's staying in the EEA) a full EU member style veto on new such deals.

    The union's utterly f'd one way or another if brexit goes ahead.

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    1. Thought that is what you Yellow Tories wanted. Either way I will still get my British Passport. EU Colony on my passport, nah.

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    2. I'd like independence yes.

      It's perfectly true what I say though. Labour would have to trash it's own devolution / power grab from Scotland/Wales to England (just as the Tories are attempting) or give all the devolved parliaments a full veto over trade deals, making the UK democratic like the EU.

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  11. You say there are "only three possibilities". I'm starting to worry that independence is a very low priority for Sturgeon, in which case the fourth possibility is that Sturgeon hasn't thought it through and simply gave an off-the-cuff reply.

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    1. More arselicking gush from you. Are you hoping for a night hood?

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  12. Britain Elects
    ‏@britainelects
    Our weighted poll tracker now puts the Tories ahead by 1pt:
    Con: 38.6%
    Lab: 37.5%
    LDem: 9.1%
    UKIP: 5.3%
    Grn: 3.2%

    That great new socialist Britian is just around the corner. We simply need the most economically incompetent Tory government in history to come along and Labour will sky rocket into the lead!

    Staying in the UK just means we get completely unregulated Tory governments we didn't voted for. No more workers rights and working time directives. That's why they want to end free movement for brits; so wages can be slashed but people can't go and get a job abroad in response.

    And foreign people in the UK have had the blame for everything during a modest economic recovery. Unemployment at 4% and they're still 'stealing our jobs while lazing around on benefits'.

    God help them when the 'Great Brecession' hits.

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    1. You tell good tall tales skier I must give you that. Seems the pro Remain BBC are saying that Trump will send emergency Liberty Boats with food supplies. You heard it here first.

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  13. The Britnats are bricking it they know that Scotland will be highly likely to vote for Scottish independence when Brexit is done and dusted. Whichever way England's Brexit happens, it will be absolutely disastrous for Scotland.

    I am meeting many English people who are moving into Scotland right now and many of them young. They are very happy to have left what is now becoming an insular, narrow minded, ethnic nationalist country, ie England, and to be living in a forward looking, outward looking internationalist country, ie Scotland.

    As for Labour ever being at the helm in Scotland, pigs really will fly. Labour did nothing for Scotland in 10 years at Holyrood, they sent £billions BACK to WM, saying 'nothing to spend it on in Scotland'. No? Not housing, not health, not education, not social care, not infrastructure? NO nothing, nil!

    Labour did not invest in infrastructure except for the disastrous trams fiasco at great cost to Edinburgh. They refused to build a new bridge across the Firth of Forth even though the old road bridge was falling down.

    Labour UK branch in Scotland fought the women workers in Glasgow public services, in court, costing the city £millions and the women losing what was rightfully theirs, until of course the new SNP council had to sort out their mess. 80 years of Labour council in Glasgow, disaster.

    Labour UK branch in Scotland plunged Scottish councils into £BILLIONS of debt, via their PFI vanity projects, that 'debt' is being called in over the next 30 or so years!!

    Labour are a disgrace, they take their orders form their masters in London.

    Labour are in coalition in nine councils across Scotland, with their best pals, the TORIES! You could hardly make it up, the list is endless.

    I vote SNP because they oppose red Tory sanctioned, UK Tory gov
    so called 'austerity'. They are mitigating the UK TORY government's horrendous financial attacks on the poorest in society, there is a lot of work to do. To repair 300+ years of Britnat rule and neglect in Scotland will take a long time yet. We mustn't allow the work done in the past 11 years by the SNP, to repair as much as they can under huge UKgov financial constraints, to be reversed.

    Remember, Tory, red Tory cuts to the poor, impacts on local economies, councils and the wider economy. It's absolutely criminal in fact.






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    1. So tae cut ra crap Hetty you want brexit to happen as it will give you English haters an edge.

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    2. I personally love the idea of being in union with England. The English are a decent people. I voted for union with them in 2014 and 2016; them and all the neighbours.

      The voted to likely end our union though; that was made clear to them. I don't think they hate us though, as you are trying to argue.

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  14. Looks like we are leaving on WTO Rules. Freedom at last from the EU Mafia. The ROI will be the only lot who will be tugging their forelock to their EU betters. You would have thought they would have obtained some dignity after centuries of doing this for the English landowners. Old habits die hard.

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  15. Heads up to James: studies of polling gap to results in USA 2018 elections appears to show 1% polling error against the younger candidate per 4 year age Gap. This is showing pretty consistently ( surprising also). People looking into. You see anything similar over there?

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  16. I will invest in making bunnets and knee pads for remainers such is my humanity towards them.

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  17. SNP are great talkers and delivered many good changes and a few bad ones, they lack street talk and are falling into the trap thinking Westminster will be honest and respectful to Scotland, SNP support of the BBC just shows they can not see the big picture, the self destruction by the SNP elite has started.

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  18. Anyone who is influenced by a poll is clearly influenced and does not think too much about issues. And that is why we rich bastards run the country. Signed, Lord Erse craft, Vlad Putin and we keep the working class docile so they think the SNP are on their side into perpetuation. Chin Chin.

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    1. When your friends and family came up with the finest of the world pop in the morning, you can always find the new railway through my trousers. Hahahaha.

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  19. Adolf Eichmann Benefiting from Gold Teeth from Die JudenFebruary 12, 2019 at 11:42 PM

    I love the Jock Nat sis as they will always remember me. I killed merr Jews than anyone else and I am remembered in a football ground in Glesga.

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    1. Cordelia there, indulging in its bizarre fetish all things fascistic.

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  20. #BetterTogther2 starting to really bash the nats now. Coming thick and fast.

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ecb-policy-britain-eu/most-london-based-banks-fleeing-brexit-have-made-reasonable-progress-ecb-idUKKCN1Q12UR

    Most London-based banks fleeing Brexit have made reasonable progress - ECB

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-ford-motor/ford-told-uk-pm-may-it-is-preparing-alternative-production-sites-the-times-idUKKCN1Q12SK

    Ford told UK PM May it is preparing alternative production sites - The Times

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    1. Mr Ford was an admirer of Hitler. The banks fleing will hopefully have paid the bail out money back.
      And what was the name of Scottish bank that would have taken responsibility for the currency the Nat sis would supposedly have introduced had they won the 2014 referendum?

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    2. Halifax BoS or National Westminster RBS?

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    3. All bailed out by the taxpayer and none of them are Scottish banks, just multinational. Guy from Bangor NI emails BBC Radio 2 saying NI is plodding on without Stormont. Scotland should do the same. We could have millions more spent on public services if we got rid of idle politicians

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    4. If a Indy Scotland continued to use sterling and and Indy Government passed the required legislation for retail banks to issue currency. Of course they would be under no obligation to continue to issue notes and this would depend on the BOE (or Scottish Government) underwriting the Sterling that they have to hold to the same value as the Scottish notes they issue.

      Of course to have its own currency Scotland would have to have a central bank to issue and underwrite the currency.

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    5. A central bank is of course just a printing press. Fiat currencies are not 'underwritten' by anything other than the press that can print more of them. Long gone are the days of currency 'underwritten' by gold.

      Central banks being the 'lender of last resort' just means they print like mad to prop-up failing economies / governments, devaluing the currency, when all other lenders won't risk it because of said failures.

      Hence the £ has lost so much of its value so quickly with brexit; it's only backed by international faith in the UK economy, which has been hit hard by brexit.

      Setting up a central bank is simple. What you need is faith in your economy. That comes from having a plan with international trade deals etc, you know, like being in the EU or similar. It's also helped by natural resources such as oil and gas as the value of these is not linked to a country's economy. The pound remains a partial petro-currency for example.

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    6. Yes you need a plan and unfortunately for you Nat sis you did not have one. You wanted to cling onto the GBP and hoped the BOE would carry you until you sold out Scotland to the EU and the euro. Tough old life. If you do have another referendum then get it right next time. Simply hating the English does not win elections.

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    7. Ah yes, I remember £-gate. It closed the Y-N gap by ~4% through a direct swing from No to Yes that never went away. A strategic disaster by the English Government to say the Scots couldn't use the £Scots if they went independent. People didn't believe it of course, and rightly so, but the it pissed off enough people to permanently benefit Yes.

      Personally, I'm actually fine with not continuing with the BoE as a central bank, as no BoE £ printing presses means no £ debt. If you can't print the £, you can't pay those cashing in £ debt bonds! Economics for Idiots, Chapter 1, Section 1.

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    8. Personally, I really hope Juncker and the EU Commission don't tell the brits they can't use the £ post brexit. What f'n disaster that would be for Remain.

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    9. skier, why would you want the GBP and the BOE setting bank interest rates in Scotland?

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    10. My French wife can't help but notice your rather poor command of English. She points out my earlier post, where I said in the native language of the English/British people, I quote:

      "Personally, I'm actually fine with not continuing with the BoE as a central bank"

      Having said that, if Juncker had said the EU Commission would prevent the UK using the £ post-brexit (e.g. by banning its use in European bank transactions), I'd have definitely voted Leave. Something to think about when it comes to the Scots£ indy thing. I mean your goal is No votes, not Yes votes right?

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    11. It has nothing to do with the command of English. By you I meant the Nat si party who were clear in their policy to stick with the GBP and BOE. However your Nat si party are usually vague and your wife is no doubt in better command of English than myself and being a Glaswegian Eastender where the Gaelic is the main language.

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    12. Cordelia's song for its heroes when they come to enforce "marital law": https://youtu.be/ey-e4hAQf9E

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